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TimothyX
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TimothyX
TimothyX
·
07-29
先看韩国那边发生了什么。7月29日KOSPI指数早盘短暂冲高后持续下挫，盘中跌幅一度超过12%，触发熔断暂停交易20分钟。这已是韩国股市2026年连续第二个交易日熔断，全年累计第九次。KOSDAQ创业板同样暴跌8%触发熔断。SK海力士重挫17%，三星电子跌逾10%，两只股票合计占KOSPI市值超40%，大盘几乎被这两档权重股绑架。
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TimothyX
TimothyX
·
07-29
该交易所表示，新产品主要覆盖来自标普500指数、纳斯达克100指数以及罗素1000指数中的大型公司，他们都具有较高市场流动性，合约采用现金结算，不进行实物交割，最终结算价为到期日标的股票在主要上市交易所的官方收盘价。
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TimothyX
TimothyX
·
07-29
华尔街甚至发现了一个规律：每当 $WTI原油ETF(CRUD.UK)$ 价格接近每桶95至100美元，白宫的降温言辞就会明显加码。 $美国原油ETF(USO)$ 3月9日一度冲高至每桶119美元以上，此后数周剧烈震荡
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TimothyX
TimothyX
·
07-29
上述的两大因素都可能让SpaceX股价面临剧烈波动。根据期权市场数据，交易员预计SpaceX财报公布后股价波动幅度将达到15%，目前SpaceX期权的引伸波幅已经超过100%，高于标普500成分股中的绝大部分公司。
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TimothyX
TimothyX
·
07-29
供应链信号值得持续跟踪。哈萨克斯坦CPC出口终端因无人机袭击暂停、俄罗斯柴油出口因炼厂遇袭缩减，这些非中东供应源的边际变化，往往成为油价突破关键阻力位的催化剂。此外，美国战略石油储备已降至1983年以来最低水平，商业库存接近运营底线，任何额外供应中断都可能触发更剧烈的价格反应。
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TimothyX
TimothyX
·
07-29
沙特被迫将原油改道绕行非洲好望角，航程由约19天延长至48天，单艘油轮燃料成本从126万美元飙升至287万美元。摩根大通估算，冲突以来全球石油供应累计损失约每日1,110万桶。小摩更警告，冲突每延长一个月，布伦特月均价格可能增加约7至8美元；若供应中断持续三个月，布伦特月均价格可能升至约114美元。
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TimothyX
TimothyX
·
07-29
2026年3月21日，特朗普向伊朗发出「48小时最后通牒」，扬言不开放霍尔木兹海峡便轰炸其能源设施，却在截止前15分钟突然宣布推迟打击5天。3月26日再延后10天。4月4日再发「48小时通牒」，6日主动延期，7日发出「12小时内不达成协议便摧毁文明」的末日警告，然后在最后期限仅剩88分钟时突然宣布接受停火。
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TimothyX
TimothyX
·
07-29
特朗普的TACO频率有多高？ 关税层面：从2024年11月胜选到2026年1月，特朗普累计发出49次关税威胁或新贸易调查，但超过七成最终都TACO了。 军事层面：欧洲对外关系委员会研究显示，特朗普第二任期内至少22次威胁使用武力，但仅2次真正付诸行动，超过90%的武力威胁最终也TACO了。 市场研究机构Blockbeats统计：过去14个月里，特朗普至少TACO了12次。
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TimothyX
TimothyX
·
07-29
中东局势反复，特朗普数次TACO，霍尔木兹海峡数次被封锁又数次「开放」，导致。这背后的规律是什么？当前还有机会吗？ TACO是 “Trump Always Chickens Out” （特朗普总是临阵退缩）的缩写，由《金融时报》专栏作家在2025年创造。
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TimothyX
TimothyX
·
07-29
过去一个月，全球首富马斯克旗下的两大核心资产，SpaceX和特斯拉合计蒸发市值约1.5万亿美元，其中SpaceX自6月中旬高点累计下跌近50%，7月以来累跌近32%；特斯拉本月累跌近27%。
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3月9日一度冲高至每桶119美元以上，此后数周剧烈震荡","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591115549197704","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591115604226912,"gmtCreate":1785312010061,"gmtModify":1785312015007,"author":{"id":"4143001014413252","authorId":"4143001014413252","name":"TimothyX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88095d545705c78d936c6451b3bf62a0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4143001014413252","authorIdStr":"4143001014413252"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"上述的两大因素都可能让SpaceX股价面临剧烈波动。根据期权市场数据，交易员预计SpaceX财报公布后股价波动幅度将达到15%，目前SpaceX期权的引伸波幅已经超过100%，高于标普500成分股中的绝大部分公司。","listText":"上述的两大因素都可能让SpaceX股价面临剧烈波动。根据期权市场数据，交易员预计SpaceX财报公布后股价波动幅度将达到15%，目前SpaceX期权的引伸波幅已经超过100%，高于标普500成分股中的绝大部分公司。","text":"上述的两大因素都可能让SpaceX股价面临剧烈波动。根据期权市场数据，交易员预计SpaceX财报公布后股价波动幅度将达到15%，目前SpaceX期权的引伸波幅已经超过100%，高于标普500成分股中的绝大部分公司。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591115604226912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591115253802192,"gmtCreate":1785311948484,"gmtModify":1785312873464,"author":{"id":"4143001014413252","authorId":"4143001014413252","name":"TimothyX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88095d545705c78d936c6451b3bf62a0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4143001014413252","authorIdStr":"4143001014413252"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"供应链信号值得持续跟踪。哈萨克斯坦CPC出口终端因无人机袭击暂停、俄罗斯柴油出口因炼厂遇袭缩减，这些非中东供应源的边际变化，往往成为油价突破关键阻力位的催化剂。此外，美国战略石油储备已降至1983年以来最低水平，商业库存接近运营底线，任何额外供应中断都可能触发更剧烈的价格反应。","listText":"供应链信号值得持续跟踪。哈萨克斯坦CPC出口终端因无人机袭击暂停、俄罗斯柴油出口因炼厂遇袭缩减，这些非中东供应源的边际变化，往往成为油价突破关键阻力位的催化剂。此外，美国战略石油储备已降至1983年以来最低水平，商业库存接近运营底线，任何额外供应中断都可能触发更剧烈的价格反应。","text":"供应链信号值得持续跟踪。哈萨克斯坦CPC出口终端因无人机袭击暂停、俄罗斯柴油出口因炼厂遇袭缩减，这些非中东供应源的边际变化，往往成为油价突破关键阻力位的催化剂。此外，美国战略石油储备已降至1983年以来最低水平，商业库存接近运营底线，任何额外供应中断都可能触发更剧烈的价格反应。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591115253802192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591115141603576,"gmtCreate":1785311852140,"gmtModify":1785312874640,"author":{"id":"4143001014413252","authorId":"4143001014413252","name":"TimothyX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88095d545705c78d936c6451b3bf62a0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4143001014413252","authorIdStr":"4143001014413252"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"沙特被迫将原油改道绕行非洲好望角，航程由约19天延长至48天，单艘油轮燃料成本从126万美元飙升至287万美元。摩根大通估算，冲突以来全球石油供应累计损失约每日1,110万桶。小摩更警告，冲突每延长一个月，布伦特月均价格可能增加约7至8美元；若供应中断持续三个月，布伦特月均价格可能升至约114美元。","listText":"沙特被迫将原油改道绕行非洲好望角，航程由约19天延长至48天，单艘油轮燃料成本从126万美元飙升至287万美元。摩根大通估算，冲突以来全球石油供应累计损失约每日1,110万桶。小摩更警告，冲突每延长一个月，布伦特月均价格可能增加约7至8美元；若供应中断持续三个月，布伦特月均价格可能升至约114美元。","text":"沙特被迫将原油改道绕行非洲好望角，航程由约19天延长至48天，单艘油轮燃料成本从126万美元飙升至287万美元。摩根大通估算，冲突以来全球石油供应累计损失约每日1,110万桶。小摩更警告，冲突每延长一个月，布伦特月均价格可能增加约7至8美元；若供应中断持续三个月，布伦特月均价格可能升至约114美元。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591115141603576","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591114628285152,"gmtCreate":1785311762624,"gmtModify":1785311814249,"author":{"id":"4143001014413252","authorId":"4143001014413252","name":"TimothyX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88095d545705c78d936c6451b3bf62a0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4143001014413252","authorIdStr":"4143001014413252"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"2026年3月21日，特朗普向伊朗发出「48小时最后通牒」，扬言不开放霍尔木兹海峡便轰炸其能源设施，却在截止前15分钟突然宣布推迟打击5天。3月26日再延后10天。4月4日再发「48小时通牒」，6日主动延期，7日发出「12小时内不达成协议便摧毁文明」的末日警告，然后在最后期限仅剩88分钟时突然宣布接受停火。","listText":"2026年3月21日，特朗普向伊朗发出「48小时最后通牒」，扬言不开放霍尔木兹海峡便轰炸其能源设施，却在截止前15分钟突然宣布推迟打击5天。3月26日再延后10天。4月4日再发「48小时通牒」，6日主动延期，7日发出「12小时内不达成协议便摧毁文明」的末日警告，然后在最后期限仅剩88分钟时突然宣布接受停火。","text":"2026年3月21日，特朗普向伊朗发出「48小时最后通牒」，扬言不开放霍尔木兹海峡便轰炸其能源设施，却在截止前15分钟突然宣布推迟打击5天。3月26日再延后10天。4月4日再发「48小时通牒」，6日主动延期，7日发出「12小时内不达成协议便摧毁文明」的末日警告，然后在最后期限仅剩88分钟时突然宣布接受停火。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591114628285152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591114420011928,"gmtCreate":1785311723713,"gmtModify":1785311812797,"author":{"id":"4143001014413252","authorId":"4143001014413252","name":"TimothyX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88095d545705c78d936c6451b3bf62a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关税层面：从2024年11月胜选到2026年1月，特朗普累计发出49次关税威胁或新贸易调查，但超过七成最终都TACO了。 军事层面：欧洲对外关系委员会研究显示，特朗普第二任期内至少22次威胁使用武力，但仅2次真正付诸行动，超过90%的武力威胁最终也TACO了。 市场研究机构Blockbeats统计：过去14个月里，特朗普至少TACO了12次。","listText":"特朗普的TACO频率有多高？ 关税层面：从2024年11月胜选到2026年1月，特朗普累计发出49次关税威胁或新贸易调查，但超过七成最终都TACO了。 军事层面：欧洲对外关系委员会研究显示，特朗普第二任期内至少22次威胁使用武力，但仅2次真正付诸行动，超过90%的武力威胁最终也TACO了。 市场研究机构Blockbeats统计：过去14个月里，特朗普至少TACO了12次。","text":"特朗普的TACO频率有多高？ 关税层面：从2024年11月胜选到2026年1月，特朗普累计发出49次关税威胁或新贸易调查，但超过七成最终都TACO了。 军事层面：欧洲对外关系委员会研究显示，特朗普第二任期内至少22次威胁使用武力，但仅2次真正付诸行动，超过90%的武力威胁最终也TACO了。 市场研究机构Blockbeats统计：过去14个月里，特朗普至少TACO了12次。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591114420011928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591112998093008,"gmtCreate":1785311326950,"gmtModify":1785311812834,"author":{"id":"4143001014413252","authorId":"4143001014413252","name":"TimothyX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88095d545705c78d936c6451b3bf62a0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4143001014413252","authorIdStr":"4143001014413252"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"中东局势反复，特朗普数次TACO，霍尔木兹海峡数次被封锁又数次「开放」，导致。这背后的规律是什么？当前还有机会吗？ TACO是 “Trump Always Chickens Out” （特朗普总是临阵退缩）的缩写，由《金融时报》专栏作家在2025年创造。","listText":"中东局势反复，特朗普数次TACO，霍尔木兹海峡数次被封锁又数次「开放」，导致。这背后的规律是什么？当前还有机会吗？ TACO是 “Trump Always Chickens Out” 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