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- 鬼羽子鬼羽子
  ·01-29
  $英伟达(NVDA)$ 这一波nv的价格一定有错杀，但要说这么快就有共识，我觉得可能性不高。这周1.31之前，我认为大概率要在140以下。但要真的冲过140，2.26财报前我认为过于乐观情绪会再一次推高到150。
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- 鬼羽子鬼羽子
  ·01-27
  $英伟达(NVDA)$ 这一轮英伟达的大跌，跟ds是否真的实现了有限算力卡也能蒸馏出高精度大模型的事实没关系。原因在于市场对于英伟达估值中的模型精度与显卡算力之间的正相关的预期被打破。因此，挤出这部分的乐观预期泡沫是必然的。所以我认为至少在下一个锚定信息到来之前，比如nvda或者其他大科技财报公布完毕之前，nvda大概率都是要跌的。最乐观的估计，也不过是跌到某个支撑位就盘整。那么，$英伟达(NVDA)$ 会一直跌么？我觉得也不会，一方面nvda公司的基本面并没有出现问题，从刚过去的ces上看，这家公司还在有序有梯度的发布新品，从过去几个季度的财报数据看， 56的滚动市盈率并不算高。另一方面，ds的成功对ai大模型行业更类似于鲶鱼效应，正常来说应该会催生更激进的军备竞赛，在这个过程中，我认为nvda仍然会是最大的受益者之一。因此我大概率不会卖出持仓，可能适当做一些cc对冲短期风险。
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