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- 张先生小试牛刀张先生小试牛刀
  ·11-14
  $纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ 暴跌愿意是景顺加仓了英伟达，拖累了
  308 评论
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- 张先生小试牛刀张先生小试牛刀
  ·11-08
  $英伟达(NVDA)$ 太垃圾了，一丁点反弹都没有，山寨币都不如，奇怪
  396 评论
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- 张先生小试牛刀张先生小试牛刀
  ·10-16
  市场没啥动静
  大幅上调英伟达目标价，这家大行的理由：台积电产能分配远超预期，OpenAI“闭环交易”
  汇丰将英伟达评级上调至"买入"，目标价从200美元猛增至320美元。主要依据两大信号：一是英伟达在台积电CoWoS先进封装产能配额从48万片跃升至70万片，同比增长140%；二是与OpenAI和Stargate项目形成"闭环交易"，预计带来2510-4000亿美元GPU收入。
  大幅上调英伟达目标价，这家大行的理由：台积电产能分配远超预期，OpenAI“闭环交易”
  99 评论
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- 张先生小试牛刀张先生小试牛刀
  ·10-01
  $辉瑞(PFE)$ 要起飞了吗？
  272 评论
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- 张先生小试牛刀张先生小试牛刀
  ·02-27
  $英伟达(NVDA)$
  1,275 评论
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- 张先生小试牛刀张先生小试牛刀
  ·02-27
  $英伟达(NVDA)$
  1,172 评论
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太垃圾了，一丁点反弹都没有，山寨币都不如，奇怪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/497699566330328","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":489830928986344,"gmtCreate":1760615292987,"gmtModify":1760619717311,"author":{"id":"4200201172007772","authorId":"4200201172007772","name":"张先生小试牛刀","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4200201172007772","idStr":"4200201172007772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"市场没啥动静","listText":"市场没啥动静","text":"市场没啥动静","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/489830928986344","repostId":"2575769539","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2575769539","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1760576272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2575769539?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-16 08:57","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"大幅上调英伟达目标价，这家大行的理由：台积电产能分配远超预期，OpenAI“闭环交易”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2575769539","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"汇丰将英伟达评级上调至\"买入\"，目标价从200美元猛增至320美元。主要依据两大信号：一是英伟达在台积电CoWoS先进封装产能配额从48万片跃升至70万片，同比增长140%；二是与OpenAI和Stargate项目形成\"闭环交易\"，预计带来2510-4000亿美元GPU收入。","content":"<html><body><p>在市场对AI前景的喧嚣中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">汇丰</a>突然从观望转向激进看多，大幅上调<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>目标价，并给出了两个关键理由。</p>\n<p>10月16日，据硬AI消息， 汇丰银行在最新研究报告中称，将英伟达评级上调至“买入”，<strong>目标价从200美元猛增至320美元，上涨空间达78%</strong>。支撑这一激进判断的并非空泛叙事，而是基于两大关键信号。</p>\n<p>该行全球科技硬件与半导体研究主管Frank Lee在研报中称，<strong>英伟达在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>的CoWoS先进封装产能分配大幅增加，预计2027财年配额从48万片晶圆跃升至70万片，同比增长140%；以及与OpenAI和Stargate项目形成的\"闭环交易\"结构，预计可带来2510-4000亿美元的GPU收入机会。</strong></p>\n<p>该行在报告中称，将<strong>英伟达2027财年数据中心收入预期上调至3510亿美元，成为华尔街最高预测</strong>，较市场共识的2580亿美元高出36%。调整后的2027财年每股收益预期为8.75美元，同样大幅领先市场共识的6.48美元。这意味着英伟达的盈利增长空间可能被严重低估。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/2bc9a0c0-c371-4906-b0ec-673d92d5bc14.png\"/></p>\n<h2>台积电产能分配飙升140%：供应链释放强劲信号</h2>\n<p>汇丰研究显示，英伟达在台积电的CoWoS先进封装产能配额出现了历史性转折。在经历了2025年上半年的下调趋势后，2027财年的产能预期在10月份实现了76%的大幅上调。</p>\n<p>具体而言，<strong>汇丰将英伟达2027财年的CoWoS晶圆配额从此前预估的48万片上调至70万片，意味着同比增长140%。这是自2025年第四季度以来，首次看到产能分配上调动能重新出现。</strong></p>\n<p>报告强调，这一产能扩张不仅将推动2027财年数据中心收入达到3510亿美元，比市场共识的2580亿美元高出36%，更重要的是“再次确认了AI GPU总体可寻址市场(TAM)不断扩大的论点，超越了对传统云服务提供商资本开支的依赖\"。</p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\"我们现在看到英伟达对台积电2027财年CoWoS晶圆预测的激进程度，这不仅将导致2027财年数据中心收入的上调超出共识预测，而且重申了我们关于AI GPU TAM不断增长且超越传统芯片级封装(Chip Scale Package) 的论点。\"</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>汇丰称，<strong>在乐观情境下，若产能分配达到80万片晶圆，2027财年数据中心收入可能触及3900亿美元</strong>，对应每股收益9.68美元，较基准情境高出11%。这一预测基于近期供应链的最新反馈，显示英伟达对AI GPU市场需求持续增长充满信心。</p>\n<p>从历史数据看，CoWoS产能扩张一直是英伟达业绩超预期的先行指标。2023年，产能配额的持续上调带来了前所未有的盈利增长；2024年同样趋势延续。当前产能分配的再次扩张，预示着新一轮增长周期的开启。</p>\n<h2>OpenAI\"闭环交易\"的惊人规模</h2>\n<p>报告揭示了一个引人注目的三角关系：<strong>英伟达向OpenAI投资最高1000亿美元，OpenAI与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>签署超3000亿美元的五年合作协议部署Stargate（星际之门）产能，而甲骨文又从英伟达采购GPU。</strong></p>\n<p>汇丰通过自下而上的分析估算，<strong>仅Stargate和OpenAI承诺的18.3GW部署，就可能为英伟达创造2510-4000亿美元的收入机会</strong>，这几乎是其当前2027财年预测的两倍。</p>\n<p>具体来看，根据不同芯片代际的功耗差异:</p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>如果全部采用Blackwell B300芯片(功耗1820W)，需要约1000万颗芯片，按单价4万美元计算，总收入达4000亿美元；</p>\n<p>如果全部采用Rubin芯片(功耗2340W)，需要约800万颗芯片，按单价4.2万美元计算，总收入为3360亿美元；</p>\n<p>如果全部采用Rubin Ultra芯片(功耗4176W)，需要约440万颗芯片，按单价5.7万美元计算，总收入为2510亿美元。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>汇丰认为，<strong>这种\"闭环交易\"结构虽然引发市场对TAM透明度的担忧，但也实实在在地将需求从假设转化为产能配置的刚性支撑</strong>。</p>\n</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-16 08:57 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757276><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在市场对AI前景的喧嚣中，汇丰突然从观望转向激进看多，大幅上调英伟达目标价，并给出了两个关键理由。\n10月16日，据硬AI消息， 汇丰银行在最新研究报告中称，将英伟达评级上调至“买入”，目标价从200美元猛增至320美元，上涨空间达78%。支撑这一激进判断的并非空泛叙事，而是基于两大关键信号。\n该行全球科技硬件与半导体研究主管Frank Lee在研报中称，英伟达在台积电的CoWoS先进封装产能分配...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757276\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757276","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2575769539","content_text":"在市场对AI前景的喧嚣中，汇丰突然从观望转向激进看多，大幅上调英伟达目标价，并给出了两个关键理由。\n10月16日，据硬AI消息， 汇丰银行在最新研究报告中称，将英伟达评级上调至“买入”，目标价从200美元猛增至320美元，上涨空间达78%。支撑这一激进判断的并非空泛叙事，而是基于两大关键信号。\n该行全球科技硬件与半导体研究主管Frank Lee在研报中称，英伟达在台积电的CoWoS先进封装产能分配大幅增加，预计2027财年配额从48万片晶圆跃升至70万片，同比增长140%；以及与OpenAI和Stargate项目形成的\"闭环交易\"结构，预计可带来2510-4000亿美元的GPU收入机会。\n该行在报告中称，将英伟达2027财年数据中心收入预期上调至3510亿美元，成为华尔街最高预测，较市场共识的2580亿美元高出36%。调整后的2027财年每股收益预期为8.75美元，同样大幅领先市场共识的6.48美元。这意味着英伟达的盈利增长空间可能被严重低估。\n\n台积电产能分配飙升140%：供应链释放强劲信号\n汇丰研究显示，英伟达在台积电的CoWoS先进封装产能配额出现了历史性转折。在经历了2025年上半年的下调趋势后，2027财年的产能预期在10月份实现了76%的大幅上调。\n具体而言，汇丰将英伟达2027财年的CoWoS晶圆配额从此前预估的48万片上调至70万片，意味着同比增长140%。这是自2025年第四季度以来，首次看到产能分配上调动能重新出现。\n报告强调，这一产能扩张不仅将推动2027财年数据中心收入达到3510亿美元，比市场共识的2580亿美元高出36%，更重要的是“再次确认了AI GPU总体可寻址市场(TAM)不断扩大的论点，超越了对传统云服务提供商资本开支的依赖\"。\n\n\"我们现在看到英伟达对台积电2027财年CoWoS晶圆预测的激进程度，这不仅将导致2027财年数据中心收入的上调超出共识预测，而且重申了我们关于AI GPU TAM不断增长且超越传统芯片级封装(Chip Scale Package) 的论点。\"\n\n汇丰称，在乐观情境下，若产能分配达到80万片晶圆，2027财年数据中心收入可能触及3900亿美元，对应每股收益9.68美元，较基准情境高出11%。这一预测基于近期供应链的最新反馈，显示英伟达对AI GPU市场需求持续增长充满信心。\n从历史数据看，CoWoS产能扩张一直是英伟达业绩超预期的先行指标。2023年，产能配额的持续上调带来了前所未有的盈利增长；2024年同样趋势延续。当前产能分配的再次扩张，预示着新一轮增长周期的开启。\nOpenAI\"闭环交易\"的惊人规模\n报告揭示了一个引人注目的三角关系：英伟达向OpenAI投资最高1000亿美元，OpenAI与甲骨文签署超3000亿美元的五年合作协议部署Stargate（星际之门）产能，而甲骨文又从英伟达采购GPU。\n汇丰通过自下而上的分析估算，仅Stargate和OpenAI承诺的18.3GW部署，就可能为英伟达创造2510-4000亿美元的收入机会，这几乎是其当前2027财年预测的两倍。\n具体来看，根据不同芯片代际的功耗差异:\n\n如果全部采用Blackwell B300芯片(功耗1820W)，需要约1000万颗芯片，按单价4万美元计算，总收入达4000亿美元；\n如果全部采用Rubin芯片(功耗2340W)，需要约800万颗芯片，按单价4.2万美元计算，总收入为3360亿美元；\n如果全部采用Rubin Ultra芯片(功耗4176W)，需要约440万颗芯片，按单价5.7万美元计算，总收入为2510亿美元。\n\n汇丰认为，这种\"闭环交易\"结构虽然引发市场对TAM透明度的担忧，但也实实在在地将需求从假设转化为产能配置的刚性支撑。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.5,"TWmain":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":99,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":484287739052200,"gmtCreate":1759262955660,"gmtModify":1759268684312,"author":{"id":"4200201172007772","authorId":"4200201172007772","name":"张先生小试牛刀","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4200201172007772","idStr":"4200201172007772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$辉瑞(PFE)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 要起飞了吗？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$辉瑞(PFE)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 要起飞了吗？","text":"$辉瑞(PFE)$ 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