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hellolady
hellolady
·
02-25
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
利率期货倒挂预警：交易员押注“持续降息”取代“明年加息”，市场对美联储预期为何一夜骤变？
智通财经APP获悉，美国期货和期权市场的交易员正大量押注，美联储将持续降息至明年，而非重启加息。与有担保隔夜融资利率挂钩的期货价差正变得深度倒挂——这标志着交易员开始定价一个更为持久的央行宽松周期。直到最近，交易员还在押注，在美联储今年底前完成两次各25个基点的降息后，2027年将恢复加息。周一交易时段，该12个月期价差的成交量创下逾15万份的纪录。
利率期货倒挂预警：交易员押注“持续降息”取代“明年加息”，市场对美联储预期为何一夜骤变？
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hellolady
hellolady
·
01-07
$MINIMAX-WP(00100)$
乙头才一手。大家都什么档中了多少呀
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hellolady
hellolady
·
01-06
我两个都有买
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hellolady
hellolady
·
2025-08-28
今天都28号了
期权女巫 | 阿里巴巴财报在即，可考虑用这个期权策略赌股价不会暴涨
在其核心电商业务与竞争对手陷入激烈价格战情况下，AI推动力可能贡献微弱。这一预警可能预示着阿里巴巴净利润亦受到外卖大战的蚕食。期权策略阿里巴巴业绩料受到AI投入和外卖投入的双重压制，股价亦会受到影响，故可以考虑以下看涨期权熊市价差策略：策略结构：卖出一张行权价为135美元、8月29日到期的BABA 看涨期权，同时买入一张行权价为140美元、8月29日到期的BABA看涨期权$BABA 跨價 250829 135C/140C$ 期权权利金：卖出看涨期权：收入56美元。
期权女巫 | 阿里巴巴财报在即，可考虑用这个期权策略赌股价不会暴涨
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hellolady
hellolady
·
2025-08-20
为什么啊
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hellolady
hellolady
·
2025-08-05
$COMPASS Pathways plc(CMPS)$
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hellolady
hellolady
·
2025-08-05
$GDX 20250815 55.0 CALL$
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hellolady
hellolady
·
2025-07-30
稳定币：推动全球支付创新
查看详情：
稳定币：推动全球支付创新
稳定币驶入“立法时代”，市场迎来新拐点？ 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户
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稳定币：推动全球支付创新
hellolady
hellolady
·
2025-07-17
继续
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hellolady
hellolady
·
2025-06-20
$地平线机器人-W(09660)$
跌的可以了吧？？还跌吗？
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这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/536618257814944","repostId":"2614724582","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2614724582","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1771978200,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2614724582?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-25 08:10","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"利率期货倒挂预警：交易员押注“持续降息”取代“明年加息”，市场对美联储预期为何一夜骤变？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2614724582","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，美国期货和期权市场的交易员正大量押注，美联储将持续降息至明年，而非重启加息。与有担保隔夜融资利率挂钩的期货价差正变得深度倒挂——这标志着交易员开始定价一个更为持久的央行宽松周期。直到最近，交易员还在押注，在美联储今年底前完成两次各25个基点的降息后，2027年将恢复加息。周一交易时段，该12个月期价差的成交量创下逾15万份的纪录。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>2月25日，美国期货和期权市场的交易员正大量押注，美联储将持续降息至明年，而非重启加息。</p><p>与有担保隔夜融资利率挂钩的期货价差(该利率密切追踪市场对美联储政策的预期)正变得深度倒挂——这标志着交易员开始定价一个更为持久的央行宽松周期。</p><p>直到最近，交易员还在押注，在美联储今年底前完成两次各25个基点的降息后，2027年将恢复加息。然而，围绕人工智能对劳动力市场影响的讨论日益激烈，正促使他们重新评估这一前景。周二，美联储理事丽莎·库克警告称，面对由AI应用普及所导致的失业率上升，央行可能无力应对。</p><p>自上周晚些时候以来，SOFR价差的趋平走势加速，恰逢对AI颠覆性影响的担忧拖累了一众股票，并引发长期美债上涨。</p><p>"问题在于，AI将如何引发通胀，而也许收益率曲线的长端正在感知到这一切，"Brandywine Global Investment Management投资组合经理杰克·麦金太尔表示。"AI唯一可能引发通胀的方面是数据中心的建设及其相关的能源需求，而这是已知的。"</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c396d9835f682c7402154fd5d541da\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"509\"/></p><p>12个月期的2026年12月至2027年12月SOFR价差上周五跌入负值区域，周二倒挂幅度进一步加深至负8个基点，表明投资者的预期已从2027年加息彻底转向定价届时将降息。周一交易时段，该12个月期价差的成交量创下逾15万份的纪录。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46663c4dcc173f1d5638886149ef5d5a\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"491\"/></p><p>在SOFR期权市场，类似的鸽派主题正在浮现，交易倾向于对冲今年多次降息的前景。这些交易周二再度活跃，其中一笔头寸规模不断扩大，旨在对冲政策利率到年底降至低至2%的可能性。12月到期的98.00看涨期权的未平仓合约量本周激增至超过40万份。目前互换市场定价美联储年底利率约为3.1%——即仅略高于两次25个基点的降息——比该期权的行权价高出约110个基点。</p><p>"在美联储触及终端利率后，市场肯定出现了一些向更低收益率重新定价的迹象，"道明证券美国利率策略主管根纳季·戈德伯格表示，市场"预期收益率将更平缓地逐步上升。"</p><p>"这可能是出于对AI影响劳动力市场的不确定性，但对美联储更长期预期的波动往往相当大，因此很难据此做出明确解读，"他补充道。</p><p>美债收益率曲线的各项指标也反映出市场对持续降息的定价。2年至5年期国债利差周一达到自12月初以来的最平坦水平，同时，由于曲线中段的出色表现，2s5s30s蝶式价差变陡的程度创下六个月来单日最大。</p><p>与此同时，在现货市场，交易员对于如何布局美债显得缺乏信心。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>截至2月23日当周的最新客户调查显示，持中性立场的投资者比例达到了2024年底以来的最高水平。</p><p>以下是利率市场最新持仓指标一览：</p><h2 id=\"id_3259636038\">摩根大通调查</h2><p>在截至2月23日的一周内，客户的空头头寸减少了4个百分点，多头头寸减少了2个百分点。纯粹的空头头寸降至12月以来的最低水平，而中性持仓比例则升至2024年12月以来的最高水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10994d797744ef6ab738c355336060d5\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"589\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1050222212\">SOFR期权</h2><p>过去一周，3月、6月和9月SOFR期权的未平仓合约变化显示，大量新增风险集中在多个Sep26看跌期权上，这主要是由于上周四大量买入SFRU6 96.4375/96.3125/96.1875看跌期权蝶式套利(价格区间2.25至2.5)。过去一周，通过3月看涨期权也看到了相当数量的上行押注，其中SFRH6 96.375/96.4375/96.50看涨期权蝶式套利是一个热门选择。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48b3791790d139c7a7f9df3473a3b1f\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"404\"/></p><p>总体而言，截至9月26日期权，各期限最集中的行权价是96.375水平，此处仍有大量Mar26看涨期权、Mar26看跌期权和Jun26看跌期权的未平仓合约。近期围绕顶部行权价的交易包括对SFRH6 96.375/96.4375/96.50看涨期权蝶式套利和SFRM6 96.5625/96.4375/96.375 1x3x2看跌期权蝶式套利的需求。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0598d9bd41e736848f28b7a7ec3e22c\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"456\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2785307814\">美债期权溢价</h2><p>对冲美债风险所支付的溢价进一步扩大，看涨期权的成本高于看跌期权，这表明交易员为对冲债市上涨(而非下跌)支付了更高的价格。这一溢价在曲线的长端最为明显，10年期和长期债券期权的偏斜指标显示，看涨期权的受欢迎程度达到数月来的最高水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77cfcbe8d454ec100e1b19c91479ade9\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"454\"/></p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>利率期货倒挂预警：交易员押注“持续降息”取代“明年加息”，市场对美联储预期为何一夜骤变？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n利率期货倒挂预警：交易员押注“持续降息”取代“明年加息”，市场对美联储预期为何一夜骤变？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-25 08:10 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1406911.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2月25日，美国期货和期权市场的交易员正大量押注，美联储将持续降息至明年，而非重启加息。与有担保隔夜融资利率挂钩的期货价差(该利率密切追踪市场对美联储政策的预期)正变得深度倒挂——这标志着交易员开始定价一个更为持久的央行宽松周期。直到最近，交易员还在押注，在美联储今年底前完成两次各25个基点的降息后，2027年将恢复加息。然而，围绕人工智能对劳动力市场影响的讨论日益激烈，正促使他们重新评估这一前景...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1406911.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4588":"碎股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1406911.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2614724582","content_text":"2月25日，美国期货和期权市场的交易员正大量押注，美联储将持续降息至明年，而非重启加息。与有担保隔夜融资利率挂钩的期货价差(该利率密切追踪市场对美联储政策的预期)正变得深度倒挂——这标志着交易员开始定价一个更为持久的央行宽松周期。直到最近，交易员还在押注，在美联储今年底前完成两次各25个基点的降息后，2027年将恢复加息。然而，围绕人工智能对劳动力市场影响的讨论日益激烈，正促使他们重新评估这一前景。周二，美联储理事丽莎·库克警告称，面对由AI应用普及所导致的失业率上升，央行可能无力应对。自上周晚些时候以来，SOFR价差的趋平走势加速，恰逢对AI颠覆性影响的担忧拖累了一众股票，并引发长期美债上涨。\"问题在于，AI将如何引发通胀，而也许收益率曲线的长端正在感知到这一切，\"Brandywine Global Investment Management投资组合经理杰克·麦金太尔表示。\"AI唯一可能引发通胀的方面是数据中心的建设及其相关的能源需求，而这是已知的。\"12个月期的2026年12月至2027年12月SOFR价差上周五跌入负值区域，周二倒挂幅度进一步加深至负8个基点，表明投资者的预期已从2027年加息彻底转向定价届时将降息。周一交易时段，该12个月期价差的成交量创下逾15万份的纪录。在SOFR期权市场，类似的鸽派主题正在浮现，交易倾向于对冲今年多次降息的前景。这些交易周二再度活跃，其中一笔头寸规模不断扩大，旨在对冲政策利率到年底降至低至2%的可能性。12月到期的98.00看涨期权的未平仓合约量本周激增至超过40万份。目前互换市场定价美联储年底利率约为3.1%——即仅略高于两次25个基点的降息——比该期权的行权价高出约110个基点。\"在美联储触及终端利率后，市场肯定出现了一些向更低收益率重新定价的迹象，\"道明证券美国利率策略主管根纳季·戈德伯格表示，市场\"预期收益率将更平缓地逐步上升。\"\"这可能是出于对AI影响劳动力市场的不确定性，但对美联储更长期预期的波动往往相当大，因此很难据此做出明确解读，\"他补充道。美债收益率曲线的各项指标也反映出市场对持续降息的定价。2年至5年期国债利差周一达到自12月初以来的最平坦水平，同时，由于曲线中段的出色表现，2s5s30s蝶式价差变陡的程度创下六个月来单日最大。与此同时，在现货市场，交易员对于如何布局美债显得缺乏信心。摩根大通截至2月23日当周的最新客户调查显示，持中性立场的投资者比例达到了2024年底以来的最高水平。以下是利率市场最新持仓指标一览：摩根大通调查在截至2月23日的一周内，客户的空头头寸减少了4个百分点，多头头寸减少了2个百分点。纯粹的空头头寸降至12月以来的最低水平，而中性持仓比例则升至2024年12月以来的最高水平。SOFR期权过去一周，3月、6月和9月SOFR期权的未平仓合约变化显示，大量新增风险集中在多个Sep26看跌期权上，这主要是由于上周四大量买入SFRU6 96.4375/96.3125/96.1875看跌期权蝶式套利(价格区间2.25至2.5)。过去一周，通过3月看涨期权也看到了相当数量的上行押注，其中SFRH6 96.375/96.4375/96.50看涨期权蝶式套利是一个热门选择。总体而言，截至9月26日期权，各期限最集中的行权价是96.375水平，此处仍有大量Mar26看涨期权、Mar26看跌期权和Jun26看跌期权的未平仓合约。近期围绕顶部行权价的交易包括对SFRH6 96.375/96.4375/96.50看涨期权蝶式套利和SFRM6 96.5625/96.4375/96.375 1x3x2看跌期权蝶式套利的需求。美债期权溢价对冲美债风险所支付的溢价进一步扩大，看涨期权的成本高于看跌期权，这表明交易员为对冲债市上涨(而非下跌)支付了更高的价格。这一溢价在曲线的长端最为明显，10年期和长期债券期权的偏斜指标显示，看涨期权的受欢迎程度达到数月来的最高水平。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YMmain":2,".IXIC":2,"MNQ2612":2,"MNQmain":2,".SPX":2,"NDX":2,"NQmain":2,"ESmain":2,".DJI":2,"MNQ2603":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":18,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":519370169500352,"gmtCreate":1767774825376,"gmtModify":1767774827113,"author":{"id":"4202555862723582","authorId":"4202555862723582","name":"hellolady","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4202555862723582","idStr":"4202555862723582"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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[惊讶]"},{"author":{"id":"4108545814161060","authorId":"4108545814161060","name":"iBob","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55376cea479fe100c0adb98fc432615c","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4108545814161060","idStr":"4108545814161060"},"content":"10倍杠杆，3000中20。。。 $MINIMAX-WP(00100)$","text":"10倍杠杆，3000中20。。。 $MINIMAX-WP(00100)$","html":"10倍杠杆，3000中20。。。 $MINIMAX-WP(00100)$"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":519033523274456,"gmtCreate":1767692532055,"gmtModify":1767692534649,"author":{"id":"4202555862723582","authorId":"4202555862723582","name":"hellolady","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4202555862723582","idStr":"4202555862723582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我两个都有买","listText":"我两个都有买","text":"我两个都有买","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/519033523274456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":472392853164472,"gmtCreate":1756362460021,"gmtModify":1756362461695,"author":{"id":"4202555862723582","authorId":"4202555862723582","name":"hellolady","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4202555862723582","idStr":"4202555862723582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"今天都28号了","listText":"今天都28号了","text":"今天都28号了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/472392853164472","repostId":"1101565794","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101565794","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"期权策略分享","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权女巫","id":"1020040791","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1756359488,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101565794?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-28 13:38","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"期权女巫 | 阿里巴巴财报在即，可考虑用这个期权策略赌股价不会暴涨","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101565794","media":"期权女巫","summary":"在其核心电商业务与竞争对手陷入激烈价格战情况下，AI推动力可能贡献微弱。这一预警可能预示着阿里巴巴净利润亦受到外卖大战的蚕食。期权策略阿里巴巴业绩料受到AI投入和外卖投入的双重压制，股价亦会受到影响，故可以考虑以下看涨期权熊市价差策略：策略结构：卖出一张行权价为135美元、8月29日到期的BABA 看涨期权，同时买入一张行权价为140美元、8月29日到期的BABA看涨期权$BABA 跨價 250829 135C/140C$ 期权权利金：卖出看涨期权：收入56美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>（BABA） 将于8月29日（周五）美股盘前发布2026财年第一季度业绩，市场关注点集中在其云计算、人工智能（AI）、外卖（淘宝闪购）业务。</p><p>分析师预计其第一财季每股收益为2.13美元，而华尔街对营收的预测为352.8亿美元。</p><h2 id=\"id_2282368214\">AI业务回报或有限</h2><p>阿里巴巴很可能在周五的财报中重点介绍其人工智能战略，但与同行腾讯和百度类似，其可能难以证明其巨额AI投资正在产生回报。</p><p>自ChatGPT在全球取得成功后，阿里、腾讯、百度等过去三年已在AI领域投资数十亿美元，它们推出了自己的大语言模型，并将其融入旗舰产品。但分析师表示，迄今为止从这些努力中盈利十分困难。</p><p>阿里巴巴一直是中国AI行业中最激进的参与者之一，几乎每周都会展示最新进展。在其核心电商业务与竞争对手陷入激烈价格战情况下，AI推动力可能贡献微弱。</p><p>根据伦敦证券交易所数据，分析师预估其包含AI产品销售的云业务在4-6月季度营收仅环比增长4.3%至314亿元人民币（44亿美元）。虽然同比增长18%，但增速呈现放缓态势。</p><p>腾讯本月公布的财报显示，其包含AI服务销售的业务收入增速低于核心游戏业务。百度的AI业务增速不足以抵消广告收入下滑。百度在2023年底首次推出文心一言聊天机器人时，曾尝试59.9元月费的订阅模式，但因用户接受度低而在今年4月停止了付费服务。</p><h2 id=\"id_3653596389\">美团财报或预警阿里在外卖大战中成本激增</h2><p>在与 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a> 和 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a> 的外卖大战中，美团预警本季度将出现重大亏损。这家外卖行业巨头在报告6月季度"非理性竞争"导致利润下滑后作出了这一严峻预测。尽管收入增长了12%，美团的净利润仍暴跌97%至3.653亿元人民币。这一预警可能预示着阿里巴巴净利润亦受到外卖大战的蚕食。</p><h2 id=\"id_766156843\">期权策略</h2><p>阿里巴巴业绩料受到AI投入和外卖投入的双重压制，股价亦会受到影响，故可以考虑以下看涨期权熊市价差策略：</p><p><strong>策略结构：</strong>卖出一张行权价为135美元、8月29日到期的BABA 看涨期权，同时买入一张行权价为140美元、8月29日到期的BABA看涨期权</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BUYABUYA 20250829 135.0 CALL SELL 1 | BUYABUYA 20250829 140.0 CALL BUY 1\" title=\"$BABA 跨價 250829 135C/140C$ \" class=\"immutable-element\">$BABA 跨價 250829 135C/140C$ </a></p><p><strong>期权权利金：</strong></p><p>卖出看涨期权（行权价135美元，8月29日到期）：收入56美元。</p><p>买入看跌期权（行权价140美元，8月29日到期）：支出24美元。</p><p><strong>净权利金收入</strong> = 卖出期权收入 - 买入期权支出 = 56 - 24 = <strong>32美元</strong></p><p><strong>盈亏分析：</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>最大盈利</strong>：32美元（当BABA到期价≤135美元时）；</p></li><li><p><strong>最大亏损</strong>：468美元（当BABA到期价≥140美元时）；</p></li><li><p><strong>盈亏平衡点</strong>：135 + 0.32 = 135.32美元（当BABA到期价=135.32美元时，总损益为0）。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3fd15ad4acb3b69fce66baf474f25a59\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1379\"/></p><p><strong>适用场景与风险提示</strong></p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>适用场景</strong>：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>预期BABA短期（至8月29日）股价<strong>不会大幅上涨</strong>（如温和下跌或震荡）；</p></li><li><p>希望通过卖出看涨期权获取权利金，但担心标的暴涨导致无限亏损，因此买入更高行权价期权对冲风险。</p></li></ul></li><li><p><strong>风险提示</strong>：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>若BABA股价在到期前突破135.32美元，策略将开始亏损，且当股价超过140美元时亏损锁定；</p></li><li><p>当前BABA美股最新价为122.23美元（8月28日），较135美元行权价有<strong>10.4%</strong>的上涨空间，短期需关注股价是否快速上涨至135美元附近；</p></li><li><p>期权时间价值衰减（Theta）对卖方有利，但波动率上升（Vega）可能增加期权价值，需关注市场情绪变化。</p></li></ul></li></ol><p><em>免责声明：期权交易具有高风险特征，投资者需根据自身风险承受能力审慎决策。</em></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权女巫 | 阿里巴巴财报在即，可考虑用这个期权策略赌股价不会暴涨</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权女巫 | 阿里巴巴财报在即，可考虑用这个期权策略赌股价不会暴涨\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-08-28 13:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>（BABA） 将于8月29日（周五）美股盘前发布2026财年第一季度业绩，市场关注点集中在其云计算、人工智能（AI）、外卖（淘宝闪购）业务。</p><p>分析师预计其第一财季每股收益为2.13美元，而华尔街对营收的预测为352.8亿美元。</p><h2 id=\"id_2282368214\">AI业务回报或有限</h2><p>阿里巴巴很可能在周五的财报中重点介绍其人工智能战略，但与同行腾讯和百度类似，其可能难以证明其巨额AI投资正在产生回报。</p><p>自ChatGPT在全球取得成功后，阿里、腾讯、百度等过去三年已在AI领域投资数十亿美元，它们推出了自己的大语言模型，并将其融入旗舰产品。但分析师表示，迄今为止从这些努力中盈利十分困难。</p><p>阿里巴巴一直是中国AI行业中最激进的参与者之一，几乎每周都会展示最新进展。在其核心电商业务与竞争对手陷入激烈价格战情况下，AI推动力可能贡献微弱。</p><p>根据伦敦证券交易所数据，分析师预估其包含AI产品销售的云业务在4-6月季度营收仅环比增长4.3%至314亿元人民币（44亿美元）。虽然同比增长18%，但增速呈现放缓态势。</p><p>腾讯本月公布的财报显示，其包含AI服务销售的业务收入增速低于核心游戏业务。百度的AI业务增速不足以抵消广告收入下滑。百度在2023年底首次推出文心一言聊天机器人时，曾尝试59.9元月费的订阅模式，但因用户接受度低而在今年4月停止了付费服务。</p><h2 id=\"id_3653596389\">美团财报或预警阿里在外卖大战中成本激增</h2><p>在与 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a> 和 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a> 的外卖大战中，美团预警本季度将出现重大亏损。这家外卖行业巨头在报告6月季度"非理性竞争"导致利润下滑后作出了这一严峻预测。尽管收入增长了12%，美团的净利润仍暴跌97%至3.653亿元人民币。这一预警可能预示着阿里巴巴净利润亦受到外卖大战的蚕食。</p><h2 id=\"id_766156843\">期权策略</h2><p>阿里巴巴业绩料受到AI投入和外卖投入的双重压制，股价亦会受到影响，故可以考虑以下看涨期权熊市价差策略：</p><p><strong>策略结构：</strong>卖出一张行权价为135美元、8月29日到期的BABA 看涨期权，同时买入一张行权价为140美元、8月29日到期的BABA看涨期权</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BUYABUYA 20250829 135.0 CALL SELL 1 | BUYABUYA 20250829 140.0 CALL BUY 1\" title=\"$BABA 跨價 250829 135C/140C$ \" class=\"immutable-element\">$BABA 跨價 250829 135C/140C$ </a></p><p><strong>期权权利金：</strong></p><p>卖出看涨期权（行权价135美元，8月29日到期）：收入56美元。</p><p>买入看跌期权（行权价140美元，8月29日到期）：支出24美元。</p><p><strong>净权利金收入</strong> = 卖出期权收入 - 买入期权支出 = 56 - 24 = <strong>32美元</strong></p><p><strong>盈亏分析：</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>最大盈利</strong>：32美元（当BABA到期价≤135美元时）；</p></li><li><p><strong>最大亏损</strong>：468美元（当BABA到期价≥140美元时）；</p></li><li><p><strong>盈亏平衡点</strong>：135 + 0.32 = 135.32美元（当BABA到期价=135.32美元时，总损益为0）。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3fd15ad4acb3b69fce66baf474f25a59\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1379\"/></p><p><strong>适用场景与风险提示</strong></p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>适用场景</strong>：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>预期BABA短期（至8月29日）股价<strong>不会大幅上涨</strong>（如温和下跌或震荡）；</p></li><li><p>希望通过卖出看涨期权获取权利金，但担心标的暴涨导致无限亏损，因此买入更高行权价期权对冲风险。</p></li></ul></li><li><p><strong>风险提示</strong>：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>若BABA股价在到期前突破135.32美元，策略将开始亏损，且当股价超过140美元时亏损锁定；</p></li><li><p>当前BABA美股最新价为122.23美元（8月28日），较135美元行权价有<strong>10.4%</strong>的上涨空间，短期需关注股价是否快速上涨至135美元附近；</p></li><li><p>期权时间价值衰减（Theta）对卖方有利，但波动率上升（Vega）可能增加期权价值，需关注市场情绪变化。</p></li></ul></li></ol><p><em>免责声明：期权交易具有高风险特征，投资者需根据自身风险承受能力审慎决策。</em></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7204a2029d9e0bbd0cfca057bd4457e","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101565794","content_text":"阿里巴巴（BABA） 将于8月29日（周五）美股盘前发布2026财年第一季度业绩，市场关注点集中在其云计算、人工智能（AI）、外卖（淘宝闪购）业务。分析师预计其第一财季每股收益为2.13美元，而华尔街对营收的预测为352.8亿美元。AI业务回报或有限阿里巴巴很可能在周五的财报中重点介绍其人工智能战略，但与同行腾讯和百度类似，其可能难以证明其巨额AI投资正在产生回报。自ChatGPT在全球取得成功后，阿里、腾讯、百度等过去三年已在AI领域投资数十亿美元，它们推出了自己的大语言模型，并将其融入旗舰产品。但分析师表示，迄今为止从这些努力中盈利十分困难。阿里巴巴一直是中国AI行业中最激进的参与者之一，几乎每周都会展示最新进展。在其核心电商业务与竞争对手陷入激烈价格战情况下，AI推动力可能贡献微弱。根据伦敦证券交易所数据，分析师预估其包含AI产品销售的云业务在4-6月季度营收仅环比增长4.3%至314亿元人民币（44亿美元）。虽然同比增长18%，但增速呈现放缓态势。腾讯本月公布的财报显示，其包含AI服务销售的业务收入增速低于核心游戏业务。百度的AI业务增速不足以抵消广告收入下滑。百度在2023年底首次推出文心一言聊天机器人时，曾尝试59.9元月费的订阅模式，但因用户接受度低而在今年4月停止了付费服务。美团财报或预警阿里在外卖大战中成本激增在与 阿里巴巴 和 京东 的外卖大战中，美团预警本季度将出现重大亏损。这家外卖行业巨头在报告6月季度\"非理性竞争\"导致利润下滑后作出了这一严峻预测。尽管收入增长了12%，美团的净利润仍暴跌97%至3.653亿元人民币。这一预警可能预示着阿里巴巴净利润亦受到外卖大战的蚕食。期权策略阿里巴巴业绩料受到AI投入和外卖投入的双重压制，股价亦会受到影响，故可以考虑以下看涨期权熊市价差策略：策略结构：卖出一张行权价为135美元、8月29日到期的BABA 看涨期权，同时买入一张行权价为140美元、8月29日到期的BABA看涨期权$BABA 跨價 250829 135C/140C$ 期权权利金：卖出看涨期权（行权价135美元，8月29日到期）：收入56美元。买入看跌期权（行权价140美元，8月29日到期）：支出24美元。净权利金收入 = 卖出期权收入 - 买入期权支出 = 56 - 24 = 32美元盈亏分析：最大盈利：32美元（当BABA到期价≤135美元时）；最大亏损：468美元（当BABA到期价≥140美元时）；盈亏平衡点：135 + 0.32 = 135.32美元（当BABA到期价=135.32美元时，总损益为0）。适用场景与风险提示适用场景：预期BABA短期（至8月29日）股价不会大幅上涨（如温和下跌或震荡）；希望通过卖出看涨期权获取权利金，但担心标的暴涨导致无限亏损，因此买入更高行权价期权对冲风险。风险提示：若BABA股价在到期前突破135.32美元，策略将开始亏损，且当股价超过140美元时亏损锁定；当前BABA美股最新价为122.23美元（8月28日），较135美元行权价有10.4%的上涨空间，短期需关注股价是否快速上涨至135美元附近；期权时间价值衰减（Theta）对卖方有利，但波动率上升（Vega）可能增加期权价值，需关注市场情绪变化。免责声明：期权交易具有高风险特征，投资者需根据自身风险承受能力审慎决策。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":1.1,"BABA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":469356215759240,"gmtCreate":1755619763972,"gmtModify":1755619765814,"author":{"id":"4202555862723582","authorId":"4202555862723582","name":"hellolady","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4202555862723582","idStr":"4202555862723582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"为什么啊","listText":"为什么啊","text":"为什么啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/469356215759240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":464392106860776,"gmtCreate":1754402215588,"gmtModify":1754403512407,"author":{"id":"4202555862723582","authorId":"4202555862723582","name":"hellolady","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4202555862723582","idStr":"4202555862723582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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