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- 薪响事成薪响事成
  ·07-30 17:13
  本次美联储议息会议虽然大概率维持利率不变，但市场的核心关注点已经转向政策表态和未来降息路径指引。我认为有以下几点值得重点关注： 1. 是否释放9月降息信号若鲍威尔在新闻发布会中表态“更开放降息”，可能会成为美股、黄金、人民币、加密资产的强反弹触发点。反之，若仍强调“通胀尚未受控”，市场情绪可能承压。 2. 通胀粘性与关税不确定性特朗普关税政策的再度施压，使通胀预期复杂化。FOMC内部对“关税通胀是否短暂”存在分歧，也增加了政策的不确定性。 3. 劳动力市场的韧性当前美国就业市场虽有放缓迹象，但整体尚未显著恶化，这对“年内是否降息两次”将构成限制。 4. 科技成长股的短期机会若会议释放鸽派信号，有望推动纳指等成长型资产短期走强，尤其是对AI、芯片板块是利好。结论：短期交易上宜关注政策声明“软化”程度；中线仍需通胀与就业配合，才能真正打开降息空间。
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