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KLeong
2021-05-03

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A 10% drop or at least a pause could be looming for the S&P 500. Take shelter in these sectors, says veteran strategist

Legendary investor Warren Buffett told his faithful over the weekend that the U.S. economy is “red h

A 10% drop or at least a pause could be looming for the S&P 500. Take shelter in these sectors, says veteran strategist

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Take shelter in these sectors, says veteran strategist","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133315528","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Legendary investor Warren Buffett told his faithful over the weekend that the U.S. economy is “red h","content":"<p>Legendary investor Warren Buffett told his faithful over the weekend that the U.S. economy is “red hot,” suggesting money in an index fund is better served than picking stocks. That advice comes as investors face what could be a seasonally weak period for equities.</p>\n<p>The “sell in May and go away” adage dictates that from now to October is often a less profitable and more bumpy time for stocks, partly as the weather warms up and big traders spend more time vacationing, leaving behind junior traders and opening the door to volatility.</p>\n<p>A stock hiatus doesn’t seem like a crazy idea right now. Hovering near all-time highs, the S&amp;P 500SPXhas gained for three straight months and the economy is indeed rebounding hard from the pandemic. And pent-up demand for a summer vacation and plenty of vaccines in the U.S., at least, justifies going away for a little while.</p>\n<p>But instead of selling, “curb your enthusiasm” may be better advice to follow for the next six months, says our<b>call of the day</b>from Stifel’s head of institutional equity strategy, Barry Bannister. He predicts the S&amp;P 500 is headed for flat to down 5% to 10% for the next few months.</p>\n<p>He bases that on the “usual seasonality math” that predicted a 26% gain from November to April 30, 2021, while we got a 28% bump. Others have been chiming in on seasonality, such as UBS and LPL Financial who bothurge investors to stick around. Here’s Bannister’s chart:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0576c02162a56278e017fcb4e61b1d27\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"871\">Bannister’s next chart shows how</p>\n<p>His next chart shows this: “A lump-sum of $10,000 (no further contributions) invested in 1950 in the S&amp;P 500 has produced a cumulative return in the 6</p>\n<p>months Nov-1 to the following year’s Apr-30 that is 38 times larger than if invested only in the preceding 6 months May 1 to Oct-31.”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f83a6cb9808a84d91079a93eebaccda\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"913\">And if things turn out as Bannister expects, he said investors should get investors to get selective about sectors, says Bannister.</p>\n<p>“If May through Oct-2021 is seasonally weak, we note that S&amp;P 500 defensives (staples, healthcare, utilities, telecom services) do typically outperform cyclicals (note cyclicals include technology) in the same period, albeit usually with&nbsp;falling yields. S&amp;P 500 seasonal strength the six months since Nov-1, 2020 also appears to have front-loaded returns, diminishing May-Oct 2021,” he said.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c78a484e65c6e40b1e0a9a05636e9e\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"894\">Bannister says if he’s wrong, the “only bubble path” is a much higher price/earnings ratio based on yield repression.” And as for those who “see post-COVID-19 as a ‘Roaring 1920s’ meme,” he noted the market P/E has already reached the Oct-1928 trend-adjusted level, which came just 12 months before the Oct-1929 crash.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7521a65d7d15bce7deae95818af536bd\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"851\"><b>Ethereum is red hot and more data is coming</b></p>\n<p>Taking your eyes off the screens this summer may be less advisable if you’re hot on cryptocurrencies. EthereumETHUSDhas topped $3,000for the first time, with gains outpacing those of bitcoinBTCUSDso far this year. Berkshire Hathaway’s vice chairman Charlie Munger hadnothing good to sayabout cryptos at the shareholder meeting on Saturday.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b2c3eb02cf934600c5a66c87eb240e6\" tg-width=\"454\" tg-height=\"210\">Elsewhere, U.S. stock futuresES00are climbing, led by Dow futuresYM00,with Nasdaq futuresNQ00modestly up. European stocksXX:SXXPare rising, with LondonUK:UKXout for a holiday. A bunch of Asian markets were closed, but those that were openfell,as investors fretted about rising COVID-19 cases and low vaccination rates.</p>\n<p>President Joe Biden’s massive proposed spending plan won’t spark inflation, argued Treasury Secretary Janet Yellenon NBC’s “Meet the Press”on Sunday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be speaking at the Just Economy conference on Monday, discussing community development.</p>\n<p>The Markit final April manufacturing purchasing managers index is on tap, with the Institute for Supply Management’s April manufacturing index and construction spending also ahead, along with auto sales.</p>\n<p>Another busy week for earnings kicks off with do-it-yourself home retailer Lowe’sLOW,makeup giant Estee LauderELand chip supply group ON SemiconductorONexpected to report before the bell on Monday.</p>\n<p>Shares of TeslaTSLAare pitching south after a German trade magazine said production at the electric car maker’s new gigafactory outside Berlinis facing another six-month delay.</p>\n<p>Multinational conglomerate Berkshire HathawayBRKMX:BRKBsaid itswung to a first-quarter profiton stock gains and better results from its insurance business.Among the highlightsfrom Saturday’s shareholder meeting, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Warren Buffettdefended selling airlines, discussed a“casino”-likestock market, andwarned overspecial-purpose acquisition companies</p>\n<p>Telecoms giant VerizonVZis nearing a deal to sell its Yahoo and AOL internet units to private equity group Apollo Global ManagementAPO,the New York Timesand other media outlets reported, citing sources.</p>\n<p>Epic Games and AppleAAPLwillsquare off in court on Monday. The maker of the popular Fortnite online game has accused the iPhone maker of abusing its App Store for anticompetitive purposes.</p>\n<p>The EU is urging the lifting of restrictions on non-essential travel to the region by vaccinated foreign nationals who hail from a country that has a good epidemiological situation.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A 10% drop or at least a pause could be looming for the S&P 500. Take shelter in these sectors, says veteran strategist</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA 10% drop or at least a pause could be looming for the S&P 500. Take shelter in these sectors, says veteran strategist\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-03 19:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-10-drop-or-at-least-a-pause-could-be-looming-for-the-s-p-500-take-shelter-in-these-sectors-says-veteran-strategist-11620041385><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Legendary investor Warren Buffett told his faithful over the weekend that the U.S. economy is “red hot,” suggesting money in an index fund is better served than picking stocks. That advice comes as ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-10-drop-or-at-least-a-pause-could-be-looming-for-the-s-p-500-take-shelter-in-these-sectors-says-veteran-strategist-11620041385\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-10-drop-or-at-least-a-pause-could-be-looming-for-the-s-p-500-take-shelter-in-these-sectors-says-veteran-strategist-11620041385","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133315528","content_text":"Legendary investor Warren Buffett told his faithful over the weekend that the U.S. economy is “red hot,” suggesting money in an index fund is better served than picking stocks. That advice comes as investors face what could be a seasonally weak period for equities.\nThe “sell in May and go away” adage dictates that from now to October is often a less profitable and more bumpy time for stocks, partly as the weather warms up and big traders spend more time vacationing, leaving behind junior traders and opening the door to volatility.\nA stock hiatus doesn’t seem like a crazy idea right now. Hovering near all-time highs, the S&P 500SPXhas gained for three straight months and the economy is indeed rebounding hard from the pandemic. And pent-up demand for a summer vacation and plenty of vaccines in the U.S., at least, justifies going away for a little while.\nBut instead of selling, “curb your enthusiasm” may be better advice to follow for the next six months, says ourcall of the dayfrom Stifel’s head of institutional equity strategy, Barry Bannister. He predicts the S&P 500 is headed for flat to down 5% to 10% for the next few months.\nHe bases that on the “usual seasonality math” that predicted a 26% gain from November to April 30, 2021, while we got a 28% bump. Others have been chiming in on seasonality, such as UBS and LPL Financial who bothurge investors to stick around. Here’s Bannister’s chart:\nBannister’s next chart shows how\nHis next chart shows this: “A lump-sum of $10,000 (no further contributions) invested in 1950 in the S&P 500 has produced a cumulative return in the 6\nmonths Nov-1 to the following year’s Apr-30 that is 38 times larger than if invested only in the preceding 6 months May 1 to Oct-31.”\nAnd if things turn out as Bannister expects, he said investors should get investors to get selective about sectors, says Bannister.\n“If May through Oct-2021 is seasonally weak, we note that S&P 500 defensives (staples, healthcare, utilities, telecom services) do typically outperform cyclicals (note cyclicals include technology) in the same period, albeit usually with falling yields. S&P 500 seasonal strength the six months since Nov-1, 2020 also appears to have front-loaded returns, diminishing May-Oct 2021,” he said.\nBannister says if he’s wrong, the “only bubble path” is a much higher price/earnings ratio based on yield repression.” And as for those who “see post-COVID-19 as a ‘Roaring 1920s’ meme,” he noted the market P/E has already reached the Oct-1928 trend-adjusted level, which came just 12 months before the Oct-1929 crash.\nEthereum is red hot and more data is coming\nTaking your eyes off the screens this summer may be less advisable if you’re hot on cryptocurrencies. EthereumETHUSDhas topped $3,000for the first time, with gains outpacing those of bitcoinBTCUSDso far this year. Berkshire Hathaway’s vice chairman Charlie Munger hadnothing good to sayabout cryptos at the shareholder meeting on Saturday.\nElsewhere, U.S. stock futuresES00are climbing, led by Dow futuresYM00,with Nasdaq futuresNQ00modestly up. European stocksXX:SXXPare rising, with LondonUK:UKXout for a holiday. A bunch of Asian markets were closed, but those that were openfell,as investors fretted about rising COVID-19 cases and low vaccination rates.\nPresident Joe Biden’s massive proposed spending plan won’t spark inflation, argued Treasury Secretary Janet Yellenon NBC’s “Meet the Press”on Sunday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be speaking at the Just Economy conference on Monday, discussing community development.\nThe Markit final April manufacturing purchasing managers index is on tap, with the Institute for Supply Management’s April manufacturing index and construction spending also ahead, along with auto sales.\nAnother busy week for earnings kicks off with do-it-yourself home retailer Lowe’sLOW,makeup giant Estee LauderELand chip supply group ON SemiconductorONexpected to report before the bell on Monday.\nShares of TeslaTSLAare pitching south after a German trade magazine said production at the electric car maker’s new gigafactory outside Berlinis facing another six-month delay.\nMultinational conglomerate Berkshire HathawayBRKMX:BRKBsaid itswung to a first-quarter profiton stock gains and better results from its insurance business.Among the highlightsfrom Saturday’s shareholder meeting, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Warren Buffettdefended selling airlines, discussed a“casino”-likestock market, andwarned overspecial-purpose acquisition companies\nTelecoms giant VerizonVZis nearing a deal to sell its Yahoo and AOL internet units to private equity group Apollo Global ManagementAPO,the New York Timesand other media outlets reported, citing sources.\nEpic Games and AppleAAPLwillsquare off in court on Monday. The maker of the popular Fortnite online game has accused the iPhone maker of abusing its App Store for anticompetitive purposes.\nThe EU is urging the lifting of restrictions on non-essential travel to the region by vaccinated foreign nationals who hail from a country that has a good epidemiological situation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1036,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}