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2021-05-03

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Wall Street bullishness hits post-Financial Crisis high, BofA says<blockquote>美国银行表示，华尔街看涨情绪创金融危机后新高</blockquote>

BofA Securities' measure of Wall Street sell-side sentiment is pushing into euphoria territory, at t

Wall Street bullishness hits post-Financial Crisis high, BofA says<blockquote>美国银行表示，华尔街看涨情绪创金融危机后新高</blockquote>

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That's the closest it's been to a sell signal since May 2007, with the S&amp;P 500(SP500)(NYSEARCA:SPY)seeing a drop of 7% over the next 12 months.<blockquote>该指数已连续四个月上涨，距离反向卖出信号（60.3%）仅50个基点。这是自2007年5月以来最接近卖出信号的一次，标普500(SP500)(NYSEARCA：SPDR标普500指数ETF)在未来12个月内下跌了7%。</blockquote>\"Increasingly euphoric sentiment is a driver of our more cautious outlook as we believe that vaccine deployment, economic reopening, stimulus, etc. are largely priced in,\" BofA strategists led by Savita Subramaniam, wrote in a note. \"We have not seen a 5% pullback in six months (they have occurred on average 3x per year) nor have we experienced a 10% correction in 14 months (a once per year phenomenon, historically).\"<blockquote>Savita Subramaniam领导的美国银行策略师在一份报告中写道：“日益乐观的情绪是我们更加谨慎前景的驱动因素，因为我们认为疫苗部署、经济重新开放、刺激措施等已在很大程度上被定价。”“我们在6个月内没有看到5%的回调（平均每年发生3次），也没有在14个月内经历10%的回调（历史上每年一次的现象）。”</blockquote>\"Sentiment continues to climb as market gains continue: the year-over-year rise in our Sell Side Indicator is in the 85th percentile of our data history and above 1 std. deviation,\" they add. \"Since March 2020, equity allocations have risen &gt;3.5x faster than they typically do following bear markets.\"<blockquote>他们补充道：“随着市场持续上涨，市场情绪继续攀升：我们的卖方指标同比涨幅处于我们数据历史的第85百分位，并且高于1个标准偏差。”“自2020年3月以来，股票配置的增长速度比熊市后通常的增长速度快了3.5倍以上。”</blockquote>\"Lofty valuations, juxtaposed against the potential for bad inflation, rising rates, and higher taxes on corporates and consumers. But we are bullish on economic/profits/capex growth, driving our preference for cyclical stocks.\"<blockquote>“高估值，加上潜在的严重通胀、利率上升以及对企业和消费者征收更高的税收。但我们看好经济/利润/资本支出增长，这推动了我们对周期性股票的偏好。”</blockquote>While at a 13-year high, the indicator is still technically in Neutral territory, indicating positive returns over the next 12 months.<blockquote>虽然该指标处于13年高点，但技术上仍处于中性区域，表明未来12个月将获得正回报。</blockquote>But it is forecasting returns of just 6%, well below the average 12-month forecast of 14% since the financial crisis.<blockquote>但该公司预测回报率仅为6%，远低于金融危机以来14%的12个月平均预测。</blockquote>Other sentiment measures are also at historically high levels.<blockquote>其他情绪指标也处于历史高位。</blockquote>The Citi Panic/Euphoria sentiment measure ticked up to 1.22 from an upwardly revised 1.17 the week before, near the peaks of positive sentiment seen during the dot-com bubble (euphoria is anything above 0.38).<blockquote>花旗恐慌/兴奋情绪指标从前一周向上修正的1.17升至1.22，接近互联网泡沫期间积极情绪的峰值（兴奋情绪高于0.38）。</blockquote>But Cannacord analyst Tony Dwyer says thatthe type of questions asked at Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell's press conference last week may indicate an inflection point on sentiment.<blockquote>但Cannacord分析师托尼·德怀尔表示，美联储主席杰伊·鲍威尔上周新闻发布会上提出的问题类型可能表明情绪出现拐点。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7ff75f216b53f3a5505519f2c396927\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street bullishness hits post-Financial Crisis high, BofA says<blockquote>美国银行表示，华尔街看涨情绪创金融危机后新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street bullishness hits post-Financial Crisis high, BofA says<blockquote>美国银行表示，华尔街看涨情绪创金融危机后新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-05-03 22:14\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nBofA Securities' measure of Wall Street sell-side sentiment is pushing into euphoria territory, at the highest level since the FinancialCrisis.<blockquote>美国银行证券衡量华尔街卖方情绪的指标正在进入欣快区域，达到金融危机以来的最高水平。</blockquote>The Sell Side Indicator, which tracks the recommended equity allocation by sell-side strategists rose to 59.8% from 59.4%, the highest it's been in 13 years.<blockquote>跟踪卖方策略师建议股票配置的卖方指标从59.4%升至59.8%，为13年来的最高水平。</blockquote>It has risen four month in the row and is just 50 basis points away from a contrarian Sell signal (60.3%). That's the closest it's been to a sell signal since May 2007, with the S&amp;P 500(SP500)(NYSEARCA:SPY)seeing a drop of 7% over the next 12 months.<blockquote>该指数已连续四个月上涨，距离反向卖出信号（60.3%）仅50个基点。这是自2007年5月以来最接近卖出信号的一次，标普500(SP500)(NYSEARCA：SPDR标普500指数ETF)在未来12个月内下跌了7%。</blockquote>\"Increasingly euphoric sentiment is a driver of our more cautious outlook as we believe that vaccine deployment, economic reopening, stimulus, etc. are largely priced in,\" BofA strategists led by Savita Subramaniam, wrote in a note. \"We have not seen a 5% pullback in six months (they have occurred on average 3x per year) nor have we experienced a 10% correction in 14 months (a once per year phenomenon, historically).\"<blockquote>Savita Subramaniam领导的美国银行策略师在一份报告中写道：“日益乐观的情绪是我们更加谨慎前景的驱动因素，因为我们认为疫苗部署、经济重新开放、刺激措施等已在很大程度上被定价。”“我们在6个月内没有看到5%的回调（平均每年发生3次），也没有在14个月内经历10%的回调（历史上每年一次的现象）。”</blockquote>\"Sentiment continues to climb as market gains continue: the year-over-year rise in our Sell Side Indicator is in the 85th percentile of our data history and above 1 std. deviation,\" they add. \"Since March 2020, equity allocations have risen &gt;3.5x faster than they typically do following bear markets.\"<blockquote>他们补充道：“随着市场持续上涨，市场情绪继续攀升：我们的卖方指标同比涨幅处于我们数据历史的第85百分位，并且高于1个标准偏差。”“自2020年3月以来，股票配置的增长速度比熊市后通常的增长速度快了3.5倍以上。”</blockquote>\"Lofty valuations, juxtaposed against the potential for bad inflation, rising rates, and higher taxes on corporates and consumers. But we are bullish on economic/profits/capex growth, driving our preference for cyclical stocks.\"<blockquote>“高估值，加上潜在的严重通胀、利率上升以及对企业和消费者征收更高的税收。但我们看好经济/利润/资本支出增长，这推动了我们对周期性股票的偏好。”</blockquote>While at a 13-year high, the indicator is still technically in Neutral territory, indicating positive returns over the next 12 months.<blockquote>虽然该指标处于13年高点，但技术上仍处于中性区域，表明未来12个月将获得正回报。</blockquote>But it is forecasting returns of just 6%, well below the average 12-month forecast of 14% since the financial crisis.<blockquote>但该公司预测回报率仅为6%，远低于金融危机以来14%的12个月平均预测。</blockquote>Other sentiment measures are also at historically high levels.<blockquote>其他情绪指标也处于历史高位。</blockquote>The Citi Panic/Euphoria sentiment measure ticked up to 1.22 from an upwardly revised 1.17 the week before, near the peaks of positive sentiment seen during the dot-com bubble (euphoria is anything above 0.38).<blockquote>花旗恐慌/兴奋情绪指标从前一周向上修正的1.17升至1.22，接近互联网泡沫期间积极情绪的峰值（兴奋情绪高于0.38）。</blockquote>But Cannacord analyst Tony Dwyer says thatthe type of questions asked at Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell's press conference last week may indicate an inflection point on sentiment.<blockquote>但Cannacord分析师托尼·德怀尔表示，美联储主席杰伊·鲍威尔上周新闻发布会上提出的问题类型可能表明情绪出现拐点。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7ff75f216b53f3a5505519f2c396927\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3689170-wall-street-bullishness-hits-post-financial-crisis-high-bofa-says\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3689170-wall-street-bullishness-hits-post-financial-crisis-high-bofa-says","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150516400","content_text":"BofA Securities' measure of Wall Street sell-side sentiment is pushing into euphoria territory, at the highest level since the FinancialCrisis.The Sell Side Indicator, which tracks the recommended equity allocation by sell-side strategists rose to 59.8% from 59.4%, the highest it's been in 13 years.It has risen four month in the row and is just 50 basis points away from a contrarian Sell signal (60.3%). That's the closest it's been to a sell signal since May 2007, with the S&P 500(SP500)(NYSEARCA:SPY)seeing a drop of 7% over the next 12 months.\"Increasingly euphoric sentiment is a driver of our more cautious outlook as we believe that vaccine deployment, economic reopening, stimulus, etc. are largely priced in,\" BofA strategists led by Savita Subramaniam, wrote in a note. \"We have not seen a 5% pullback in six months (they have occurred on average 3x per year) nor have we experienced a 10% correction in 14 months (a once per year phenomenon, historically).\"\"Sentiment continues to climb as market gains continue: the year-over-year rise in our Sell Side Indicator is in the 85th percentile of our data history and above 1 std. deviation,\" they add. \"Since March 2020, equity allocations have risen >3.5x faster than they typically do following bear markets.\"\"Lofty valuations, juxtaposed against the potential for bad inflation, rising rates, and higher taxes on corporates and consumers. But we are bullish on economic/profits/capex growth, driving our preference for cyclical stocks.\"While at a 13-year high, the indicator is still technically in Neutral territory, indicating positive returns over the next 12 months.But it is forecasting returns of just 6%, well below the average 12-month forecast of 14% since the financial crisis.Other sentiment measures are also at historically high levels.The Citi Panic/Euphoria sentiment measure ticked up to 1.22 from an upwardly revised 1.17 the week before, near the peaks of positive sentiment seen during the dot-com bubble (euphoria is anything above 0.38).But Cannacord analyst Tony Dwyer says thatthe type of questions asked at Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell's press conference last week may indicate an inflection point on sentiment.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1155,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}