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cyj0417
2021-06-05

Yes agree

Shopify Is An Expensive Stock That Keeps Delivering The Goods<blockquote>Shopify是一只不断发货的昂贵股票</blockquote>

Summary Shopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the com

Shopify Is An Expensive Stock That Keeps Delivering The Goods<blockquote>Shopify是一只不断发货的昂贵股票</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":112086831,"tweetId":"112086831","gmtCreate":1622824740823,"gmtModify":1634097601375,"author":{"id":3583565236192302,"idStr":"3583565236192302","authorId":3583565236192302,"authorIdStr":"3583565236192302","name":"cyj0417","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31fd946cc51d1b520164c1a8a7b6154e","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Yes agree</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Yes agree</body></html>","text":"Yes agree","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112086831","repostId":1167651093,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167651093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622820402,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167651093?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 23:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Shopify Is An Expensive Stock That Keeps Delivering The Goods<blockquote>Shopify是一只不断发货的昂贵股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167651093","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the com","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Shopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the company despite its high valuations.</li> <li>The company has multiple growth drivers in Payments, and International markets to further drive its growth story.</li> <li>Its technical picture also shows a stock that has always been strongly supported along its long-term uptrend.</li> <li>I attempt to discuss the key aspects of its operating performances and why investors should also focus on international expansion as a key aspect of e-commerce growth.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52317e0f54753da09429856ece6bc6b5\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\">Photo by JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis<blockquote><ul><li>Shopify始终为长期投资者提供服务，尽管该公司估值很高，但他们仍对该公司保持信心。</li><li>该公司在支付和国际市场方面拥有多种增长动力，以进一步推动其增长故事。</li><li>其技术图还显示了一只在长期上升趋势中始终受到强有力支撑的股票。</li><li>我试图讨论其经营业绩的关键方面，以及为什么投资者也应该将国际扩张作为电子商务增长的关键方面。</li></ul>摄影：JHVEPhoto/iStock社论来自Getty Images投资论文</blockquote> Shopify (SHOP) is one of the most hotly debated e-commerce stocks because of its explosive revenue growth rates and its high valuations. The company continues to demonstrate both stellar topline and bottomline growth while also improving its cash flow margins. The management’s ability to monetize its merchants through Shopify Payments and its suite of merchant solutions is a masterstroke that shows the capability of the management to be able to continue executing its high growth strategies with aplomb moving forward. Despite its relatively high valuation levels, it also remains a very strong stock from the technical point of view, so bullish investors may consider adding it at the next dip.<blockquote>Shopify(SHOP)因其爆炸性的收入增长率和高估值而成为最受争议的电子商务股票之一。该公司继续表现出出色的营收和利润增长，同时现金流利润率也有所提高。管理层通过Shopify Payments及其商户解决方案套件为商户货币化的能力是一个绝妙之举，表明管理层有能力继续泰然自若地执行其高增长战略。尽管其估值水平相对较高，但从技术角度来看，它仍然是一只非常强劲的股票，因此看涨的投资者可能会考虑在下一次下跌时添加它。</blockquote> Shopify: Defying Amazon’s Valuation Logic<blockquote>Shopify：挑战亚马逊的估值逻辑</blockquote> Shopify’s critics have often questioned the logic of investing in Shopify when you can invest in Amazon (AMZN) for a fraction of its expensive valuation. Yet, investors in SHOP continue to defy “common valuation logic” by pointing to Shopify’s incredible growth rates.<blockquote>当你可以以亚马逊(AMZN)昂贵估值的一小部分投资亚马逊(AMZN)时，Shopify的批评者经常质疑投资Shopify的逻辑。然而，SHOP的投资者继续无视“常见估值逻辑”，指出Shopify令人难以置信的增长率。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2dcffad535b32122075c2b0af38ff14\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"818\">SHOP and AMZN LTM Revenue Growth Trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>SHOP和AMZN LTM收入增长趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d799fb8dc581602cf953723e8439b3\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"710\">AMZN and SHOP LTM Revenue YoY Growth &amp; Revenue 3Y CAGR. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>AMZN和SHOP LTM收入同比增长和收入3年复合年增长率。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> Over the last 5 years, SHOP’s revenue growth has easily surpassed AMZN at every reporting quarter, and the pandemic fueled e-commerce tailwind also drove higher growth to SHOP as its LTM revenue YoY growth read 99.6% as compared to AMZN’s “meagre” 41.5%. Moreover, SHOP’s revenue 3Y CAGR of 63.3% also easily bested AMZN’s 3Y CAGR of 29.5%. So clearly, SHOP’s growth has been truly phenomenal.<blockquote>在过去的5年里，SHOP的收入增长在每个报告季度都轻松超过了AMZN，而疫情推动的电子商务顺风也推动了SHOP的更高增长，其LTM收入同比增长99.6%，而AMZN的“微薄”41.5%。此外，SHOP的收入3年复合年增长率为63.3%，也轻松超过了AMZN的3年复合年增长率29.5%。显然，SHOP的增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote> Shopify's Compelling Merchant Solutions Growth Drivers<blockquote>Shopify引人注目的商家解决方案增长动力</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530e31580ddf7319700509d7bb77eadf\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"605\">Shopify Revenue Segments. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>Shopify收入细分。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> In recent years, we could see that even though Shopify’s revenue growth has been pretty much broad-based, its merchant solutions segment has been taking up an increasingly large contribution in the company’s revenue base and have transformed itself into Shopify’s most important revenue driver, accounting for 67.6% of Q1’21 revenue. The shift towards increasing the revenue base of merchant solutions has seen the company continuing to roll out multiple new merchant solutions initiatives and services to further monetize the company’s merchant base and improve the strength of its ecosystem, therefore enhancing its “stickiness” and retention over time.<blockquote>近年来，我们可以看到，尽管Shopify的收入增长基础相当广泛，但其商家解决方案部门对公司收入基础的贡献越来越大，并已转变为Shopify最重要的收入驱动力，占21年第一季度收入的67.6%。向增加商户解决方案收入基础的转变使该公司继续推出多项新的商户解决方案计划和服务，以进一步将公司的商户基础货币化并提高其生态系统的实力，从而随着时间的推移增强其“粘性”和保留率。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e25591146598f17356e29c09b22ee48a\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"540\">Shopify Subscription Solutions and Merchant Solutions YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>Shopify订阅解决方案和商家解决方案同比增长。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> Investors should be careful not to get too excited with the pulled forward growth as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic that we observed in FY 20 as seen above. The management has already strongly emphasized in their guidance that they do not expect this to repeat, and&nbsp;expects YoY growth to normalize&nbsp;to levels seen before the pandemic, which in this case is estimated to be somewhere north of 50%. Even though growth is expected to normalize moving forward, it’s not as if SHOP has been growing slowly and more importantly the pulled forward growth last year has allowed SHOP to dramatically increase its merchants growth onto its platform for future monetization within Shopify’s robust ecosystem.<blockquote>投资者应小心，不要对我们在20财年观察到的COVID-19大流行导致的增长过于兴奋。管理层已经在指导中强烈强调，他们预计这种情况不会重演，并预计同比增长将恢复到大流行之前的水平，在这种情况下，估计超过50%。尽管未来的增长预计将正常化，但SHOP的增长并不缓慢，更重要的是，去年的增长使SHOP能够大幅增加其平台上的商户增长，以便在Shopify强大的生态系统中实现未来的货币化。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81297d610a91d9faaac76cab97c2a46\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"566\">Shopify Segment Gross Margins. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>Shopify部门毛利率。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> Although Q1’21’s gross margin was higher than recent historical trends, we should not expect this to carry on moving forward. The management pointed out clearly that the company is focusing its efforts to continue improving its robust ecosystem for its merchants such as developing the Shopify Fulfillment Network [SFN], as it expects that the&nbsp;merchant solutions segment to continue driving its revenue growth&nbsp;even if it means lesser gross margins moving forward.<blockquote>尽管21年第一季度的毛利率高于近期历史趋势，但我们不应指望这种情况会持续下去。管理层明确指出，公司正在集中精力继续为商家改善其强大的生态系统，例如开发Shopify履行网络[SFN]，因为它预计商家解决方案部门将继续推动其收入增长，即使这意味着未来的毛利率会降低。</blockquote> Shopify Payments is the Key to Unlock the Benefits from GMV Growth<blockquote>Shopify Payments是释放GMV增长优势的关键</blockquote> Despite that, the company clarified that as Shopify Payments continue to see increased adoption and usage among its merchants, the company expects to see significant improvement to its SG&amp;A efficiencies as Shopify Payments has a much lesser impact on SG&amp;A margins, therefore leading to improvement on operating efficiencies as Shopify Payments scale up further.<blockquote>尽管如此，该公司澄清说，随着Shopify Payments在其商家中的采用和使用量继续增加，该公司预计其SG&amp;A效率将显着提高，因为Shopify Payments对SG&amp;A利润率的影响要小得多，因此导致运营效率的提高随着Shopify支付规模的进一步扩大。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96f95af102893b8aa172d3bbb38e04e5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"724\">SHOP EBIT Margin, SG&amp;A Margin, R&amp;D Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>商店息税前利润率、SG&amp;A利润率、R&amp;D利润率、毛利率。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> Clearly, investors could see that despite posting a relatively high LTM gross margin profile in Q1’21: 53.5%, it has only recently turned LTM EBIT profitable (Q1’21: 10.5%), thanks to the company’s solid improvement with its operating efficiencies even though the gross margin profile has remained stable over time, even with the pulled forward growth from COVID-19 last year.<blockquote>显然，投资者可以看到，尽管21年第一季度的LTM毛利率相对较高：53.5%，但由于该公司运营效率的稳步改善，它直到最近才实现LTM息税前利润（21年第一季度：10.5%）尽管毛利率状况随着时间的推移保持稳定，尽管去年COVID-19带来了增长。</blockquote> We could see a consistently declining LTM SG&amp;A margin trend reaching 24.8% in Q1’21 from a high of 44.1% in Q4’16, signifying a huge improvement. Therefore, I’m confident that SHOP would continue to deliver improved operating efficiencies as it scales up its SFN to further strengthen its ecosystem, creating even more value and synergies for its merchants and their customers.<blockquote>我们可以看到LTM SG&amp;A利润率持续下降，从16年第4季度44.1%的高点达到21年第1季度的24.8%，这意味着巨大的改善。因此，我相信SHOP将继续提高运营效率，扩大SFN规模，进一步加强其生态系统，为商家及其客户创造更多价值和协同效应。</blockquote> SHOP’s GMV and GPV Analysis. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>商店的GMV和GPV分析。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6f4cabe3fd5b28627f459fb7c38d30d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">SHOP’s GMV and GPV YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>SHOP的GMV和GPV同比增长。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> We could clearly see the increasingly important role of Shopify Payments for its merchants as more and more merchants are using Shopify Payments over time as GPV growth has outpaced GMV growth consistently, with Q1’21 reading coming in at 137% YoY growth and 114.4% YoY growth, respectively.<blockquote>我们可以清楚地看到Shopify支付对其商家越来越重要的作用，随着时间的推移，越来越多的商家使用Shopify支付，GPV增长持续超过GMV增长，21年第一季度的读数分别为同比增长137%和114.4%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2221628cdde154ad2c8a97a321036aa9\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">SHOP GPV as a % of GMV. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>商店GPV占GMV的百分比。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> With the increased adoption and usage of Shopify Payments, in Q1’21 GPV formed 46.4% of GMV, from a low of 37.5% of GMV just 3 years ago. I believe Shopify is moving in the right direction to continue driving more and more merchants towards Shopify Payments as it creates a powerful flywheel to unlock even more and more of the expected massive GMV growth moving forward.<blockquote>随着Shopify支付的采用和使用不断增加，21年第一季度GPV占GMV的46.4%，而3年前仅占GMV的37.5%。我相信Shopify正在朝着正确的方向前进，继续推动越来越多的商家转向Shopify支付，因为它创造了一个强大的飞轮，可以释放越来越多预期的大规模GMV增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0258ae827634f290dfe0d7d81fd92809\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">Shopify MRR. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>Shopify先生。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2376f5f19c5f4a4cb9e4f4bb797fcb64\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">Shopify MRR YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>Shopify MRR同比增长。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> The sustained improvement in GPV growth has come at an important juncture as SHOP had already been experiencing slower MRR growth pre-pandemic (from 36% in Q1’19 to 21% in Q2’20). Therefore, by strategically being able to monetize its merchants in other areas has helped to manage this slowdown, while at the same time opened up many new revenue opportunities for Merchant Solutions to help drive the company’s future growth.<blockquote>GPV增长的持续改善正值一个重要时刻，因为SHOP在大流行之前就已经经历了MRR增长放缓（从19年第一季度的36%到20年第二季度的21%）。因此，通过战略性地将其他领域的商家货币化，有助于应对这种放缓，同时为商家解决方案开辟了许多新的收入机会，以帮助推动公司未来的增长。</blockquote> The Importance of International Expansion<blockquote>国际扩张的重要性</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26d7cd04a66b877c2669945d4f9a68ef\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"775\">Shopify Revenue by Merchant Location. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>按商家位置划分的Shopify收入。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31774ad4abd47199de636274620d5302\" tg-width=\"807\" tg-height=\"499\">Shopify Revenue by Merchant Location YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>按商家位置划分的Shopify收入同比增长。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> Although U.S. merchants continue to be SHOP’s most important revenue driver (66.7% of FY 20 revenue), the company has also experienced rapid growth in other geographical markets, particularly in its Rest of World segment. As we can observe from the above chart, U.S. growth has already been trending down pre-pandemic, while Rest of World growth has continued to grow rapidly and consistently.<blockquote>尽管美国商家仍然是SHOP最重要的收入驱动力（占20财年收入的66.7%），但该公司在其他地理市场也经历了快速增长，特别是在世界其他地区。从上图可以看出，美国的经济增长在大流行前就已经呈下降趋势，而世界其他地区的经济增长则继续快速持续增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39fd8a089cc64ae41da56ef8a8ddafe3\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"597\">Amazon Revenue Segments YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>亚马逊收入部门同比增长。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> We also observed this from AMZN’s International segment growth where although it has been somewhat of a laggard in previous quarters, it has started to outpace North America’s growth for the last 2 quarters, culminating in Q1’21 YoY growth of 60.4% for the International segment against 39.5% for the North America segment.<blockquote>我们还从AMZN的国际业务增长中观察到了这一点，尽管前几个季度有些落后，但过去两个季度已开始超过北美的增长，最终国际业务在21年第一季度同比增长60.4%。北美市场为39.5%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7909e7fdd6bf5972121d1a9a70f75a46\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">U.S. Retail e-commerce revenue 2017 to 2025. Data Source: Statista<blockquote>2017年至2025年美国零售电子商务收入。数据来源：Statista</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c99e9a30fb46d3d1f22e77b72c40740\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">U.S. Retail e-commerce revenue YoY Growth. Data Source: Statista<blockquote>美国零售电商收入同比增长。数据来源：Statista</blockquote> We could see from the above why ramping up growth internationally is so important for Shopify to continue delivering its expected spectacular growth rates. Even though Shopify merchants sell internationally, the fact that the SFN currently serves only businesses whosell to U.S. customersindicates the significance of the U.S. consumers to Shopify’s ecommerce revenues. However, as the growth of U.S. retail e-commerce revenue is expected to slow down over time (from 8.7% YoY in 2021 to 2.7% YoY by 2025), companies like Shopify who rely on high growth to justify its valuation must either take market share away from its key competitors or look for growth outside of the United States.<blockquote>从上面我们可以看出，为什么加快国际增长对于Shopify继续实现其预期的惊人增长率如此重要。尽管Shopify商家在国际上销售，但SFN目前仅为向美国客户销售的企业提供服务，这一事实表明了美国消费者对Shopify电子商务收入的重要性。然而，由于美国零售电子商务收入的增长预计将随着时间的推移而放缓（从2021年的同比8.7%降至2025年的同比2.7%），像Shopify这样依靠高增长来证明其估值合理性的公司必须要么从主要竞争对手那里获得市场份额，要么在美国以外寻求增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60f4fcd9254552bdd46a6d9c613384d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">Value of Southeast Asia e-commerce market. Data Source: Google, Temasek Holdings, Bain &amp; Company<blockquote>东南亚电子商务市场的价值。数据来源：谷歌、淡马锡控股、贝恩公司</blockquote> For example, if we look across to Southeast Asia, and compare the growth rates of the Southeast Asian market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 22.6%) and the United States market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 3.73%), it’s easy to see which market will be the key driver of e-commerce growth in the near future. There’s no doubt that the U.S. market remains an extremely important market given its size, however much of the future growth will likely come from overseas markets. Therefore, it’s important that Shopify continues to drive growth across other geographical markets.<blockquote>例如，如果我们放眼东南亚，比较东南亚市场（2020年至2025年的预期5年CAGR：22.6%）和美国市场（2020年至2025年的预期5年CAGR：3.73%）的增长率，很容易看出哪个市场将是不久的将来电子商务增长的主要驱动力。毫无疑问，鉴于其规模，美国市场仍然是一个极其重要的市场，但未来的增长很大一部分可能来自海外市场。因此，Shopify继续推动其他地理市场的增长非常重要。</blockquote> Let's Bring in Sea Limited<blockquote>让我们引入Sea Limited</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40fe31435cdc50217df4172982b7354\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"821\">Sea Limited &amp; SHOP EBIT Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Sea Limited&amp;商店息税前利润率、毛利率。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> In order to look at Shopify’s growth opportunities in the Southeast Asian market, I thought it would be important to first consider the most important e-commerce player in that region: Sea Limited (SE), which I had previouslycovered in detail in an article hererecently.<blockquote>为了了解Shopify在东南亚市场的增长机会，我认为首先考虑该地区最重要的电子商务参与者是很重要的：Sea Limited(SE)，我之前在一篇文章中详细介绍过它最近。</blockquote> It’s easy to see how SHOP’s more profitable business model on relying on subscriptions and merchant solutions drove a much higher EBIT margin as compared to SE’s online marketplace platform: Shopee, which is currently being supported by the company’s profitable Garena gaming segment.<blockquote>很容易看出，与SE的在线市场平台Shopee相比，SHOP依靠订阅和商家解决方案的利润更高的商业模式如何推动了更高的息税前利润率，Shopee目前由该公司盈利的Garena游戏部门提供支持。</blockquote> Despite that, Sea has still been able to drive significant revenue growth and operating efficiencies such that its EBIT margins have seen remarkable improvement.<blockquote>尽管如此，Sea仍然能够推动显着的收入增长和运营效率，使其息税前利润率显着提高。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788d4d4399cbdeb497792a1f90868e47\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"714\">EBIT Margin Forecast. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>息税前利润率预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> When we modelled SE and SHOP’s EBIT margins moving forward, we could see how both companies’ improving cost efficiencies, notably from the reduction in SG&amp;A margins, would help both companies to continue improving their operating margins over time.<blockquote>当我们对SE和SHOP未来的息税前利润率进行建模时，我们可以看到两家公司成本效率的提高，特别是SG&amp;A利润率的降低，将如何帮助两家公司随着时间的推移继续提高营业利润率。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f94e62035fe5fc04eaeb95b7d760df28\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"703\">SE and SHOP Projected Unlevered FCF Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>SE和SHOP预计无杠杆自由现金流利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> This is where their SE is expected to pull ahead. In modelling their FCF, SE is expected to generate so much FCF from its revenue growth and operating profits that the company looks increasingly like a massive cash flow machine moving forward. It’s not as if SHOP looks sloppy, but when compared to SE’s FCF margins, they certainly don’t look as impressive though.<blockquote>这是他们的SE有望领先的地方。在模拟自由现金流时，SE预计将从其收入增长和营业利润中产生如此多的自由现金流，以至于该公司看起来越来越像一台向前发展的巨大现金流机器。SHOP看起来并不马虎，但与SE的自由现金流利润率相比，它们看起来肯定没有那么令人印象深刻。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa625e12090dfc0f64e439c278b5b9d0\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"649\">SE and SHOP Projected Revenue CAGR (5Y, 10Y), 10Y Projected Av. Unlevered FCF Margin, EV / FY+1 Rev. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>SE和SHOP预计收入CAGR（5年、10年）、10年预计Av。无杠杆自由现金流利润率，EV/FY+1修订版数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> More importantly, when we bring their current valuation levels into the picture (EV / FY+1 Rev), we could see that SE’s current valuation (16.3x) looks so much more attractive than SHOP’s (32.7x), while being able to convert that rapid revenue growth into higher FCF margins. It should also be noted that I have modelled both companies to continue their blockbuster performances: SE (5Y CAGR of 44.3%, 10Y CAGR of 26.7%), SHOP (5Y CAGR 41.4%, 10Y CAGR 32.3%).<blockquote>更重要的是，当我们考虑到他们当前的估值水平（EV/FY+1 Rev）时，我们可以看到SE当前的估值（16.3倍）看起来比SHOP的（32.7倍）更具吸引力，同时能够将快速的收入增长转化为更高的自由现金流利润率。还应该指出的是，我对这两家公司进行了建模，以继续其出色的表现：SE（5年复合年增长率为44.3%，10年复合年增长率为26.7%）、SHOP（5年复合年增长率为41.4%，10年复合年增长率为32.3%）。</blockquote> Therefore, for investors who would like a share of that rapid international growth in the Southeast Asian market coupled with a leading cash flow generating gaming segment, you should look no further than SE.<blockquote>因此，对于想要分享东南亚市场快速国际增长以及领先的现金流产生游戏领域的投资者来说，您应该看看SE。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4df93eabc2cf51bdca0056071317076a\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">Market share of e-commerce software platforms in the U.S. in 2021 Data Source: Builtwith<blockquote>2021年美国电商软件平台市场份额数据来源：Builtwith</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2485bbbc639e9512e106f6dd1ab48ff\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">Unique visitors to the most popular online retailers in SEA in 2020. Data Source: iPrice Group, SimilarWeb, Marketing in Asia<blockquote>2020年SEA最受欢迎在线零售商的独立访客。数据来源：iPrice Group、SimilarWeb、亚洲市场营销</blockquote> When we consider the competitive economics in the U.S. against Southeast Asia, it becomes very clear. Shopify faces strong competition within its software platform segment, without accounting for Amazon’s prowess as well. Even though I expect Shopify to continue its rapid expansion, I believe that it faces more intensive competitive threats than Sea Limited as the pie in the U.S. is expected to grow slower over time. SHOP needs almost perfect execution every quarter to justify its lofty valuations.<blockquote>当我们考虑美国与东南亚的竞争经济学时，这一点就变得非常清楚了。Shopify在其软件平台领域面临着激烈的竞争，但也没有考虑到亚马逊的实力。尽管我预计Shopify将继续快速扩张，但我相信它比Sea Limited面临更激烈的竞争威胁，因为随着时间的推移，美国的市场增长预计会放缓。SHOP每个季度都需要近乎完美的执行才能证明其高估值的合理性。</blockquote> As compared to SE, it is clearly the dominant online marketplace now in Southeast Asia by a fairly large margin, and its prowess and scale is also growing, further stretching the distance from its competitors. Coupled with its ShopeePay payments platform, it also creates a flywheel effect similar to what Shopify Payments does for Shopify. The leadership in Southeast Asia is surely Sea’s to lose, and there’s so much potential growth that the company can capture in this region as the undisputed leader. When we consider Shopify’s valuations against SE’s it looks quite clear SE’s valuation looks more attractive now, with stronger market leadership and arguably higher potential growth.<blockquote>与SE相比，它显然是东南亚在线市场的主导者，其实力和规模也在增长，进一步拉开了与竞争对手的距离。再加上其ShopeePay支付平台，它还创造了类似于Shopify Payments为Shopify所做的飞轮效应。东南亚的领导地位肯定是Sea失去的，而且该公司作为无可争议的领导者可以在该地区抓住巨大的增长潜力。当我们将Shopify的估值与SE的估值进行比较时，很明显SE的估值现在看起来更具吸引力，具有更强的市场领导地位和可以说更高的潜在增长。</blockquote> Price Action and Technical Analysis<blockquote>价格行为和技术分析</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a9782afa86bafbd3d2e54e41e0c1d13\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"794\">Source: TradingView<blockquote>资料来源：TradingView</blockquote> SHOP’s price action has been stuck somewhat in a large consolidation phase since Oct 20, with the bull trap set in Feb 21 at around the $1500 level. Support was found at around the $1000 level, with further support at around the $835 level for investors who wish to add further into SHOP. It’s important to note that despite SHOP’s lofty valuations, its long term uptrend bias has never been threatened, and I expect this to carry on moving forward.<blockquote>自10月20日以来，SHOP的价格走势一直陷入大幅盘整阶段，牛市陷阱于2月21日设定在1500美元左右。对于希望进一步增持的投资者来说，支撑位在1000美元左右，进一步支撑位在835美元左右。值得注意的是，尽管SHOP的估值很高，但其长期上升趋势偏见从未受到威胁，我预计这种情况将继续下去。</blockquote> Wrapping it all up<blockquote>把这一切包起来</blockquote> Although Shopify is one of the most expensive high quality e-commerce stocks right now, it’s also expected to generate rapid growth ahead with its ever improving ecosystem for its merchants. Coupled with one of the strongest long term uptrend biases that I have seen for stocks (It didn’t lose its key support levels even during the COVID-19 bear market), I believe this puts SHOP in a strong position as a stock to add aggressively at the next big dip.<blockquote>尽管Shopify是目前最昂贵的优质电子商务股票之一，但随着其商家生态系统的不断改善，预计它也将在未来实现快速增长。再加上我所见过的股票最强烈的长期上升趋势偏差之一（即使在COVID-19熊市期间，它也没有失去关键支撑位），我相信这使SHOP作为一只股票处于有利地位，可以在下一次大幅下跌时积极增加。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shopify Is An Expensive Stock That Keeps Delivering The Goods<blockquote>Shopify是一只不断发货的昂贵股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShopify Is An Expensive Stock That Keeps Delivering The Goods<blockquote>Shopify是一只不断发货的昂贵股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-04 23:26\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Shopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the company despite its high valuations.</li> <li>The company has multiple growth drivers in Payments, and International markets to further drive its growth story.</li> <li>Its technical picture also shows a stock that has always been strongly supported along its long-term uptrend.</li> <li>I attempt to discuss the key aspects of its operating performances and why investors should also focus on international expansion as a key aspect of e-commerce growth.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52317e0f54753da09429856ece6bc6b5\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\">Photo by JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis<blockquote><ul><li>Shopify始终为长期投资者提供服务，尽管该公司估值很高，但他们仍对该公司保持信心。</li><li>该公司在支付和国际市场方面拥有多种增长动力，以进一步推动其增长故事。</li><li>其技术图还显示了一只在长期上升趋势中始终受到强有力支撑的股票。</li><li>我试图讨论其经营业绩的关键方面，以及为什么投资者也应该将国际扩张作为电子商务增长的关键方面。</li></ul>摄影：JHVEPhoto/iStock社论来自Getty Images投资论文</blockquote> Shopify (SHOP) is one of the most hotly debated e-commerce stocks because of its explosive revenue growth rates and its high valuations. The company continues to demonstrate both stellar topline and bottomline growth while also improving its cash flow margins. The management’s ability to monetize its merchants through Shopify Payments and its suite of merchant solutions is a masterstroke that shows the capability of the management to be able to continue executing its high growth strategies with aplomb moving forward. Despite its relatively high valuation levels, it also remains a very strong stock from the technical point of view, so bullish investors may consider adding it at the next dip.<blockquote>Shopify(SHOP)因其爆炸性的收入增长率和高估值而成为最受争议的电子商务股票之一。该公司继续表现出出色的营收和利润增长，同时现金流利润率也有所提高。管理层通过Shopify Payments及其商户解决方案套件为商户货币化的能力是一个绝妙之举，表明管理层有能力继续泰然自若地执行其高增长战略。尽管其估值水平相对较高，但从技术角度来看，它仍然是一只非常强劲的股票，因此看涨的投资者可能会考虑在下一次下跌时添加它。</blockquote> Shopify: Defying Amazon’s Valuation Logic<blockquote>Shopify：挑战亚马逊的估值逻辑</blockquote> Shopify’s critics have often questioned the logic of investing in Shopify when you can invest in Amazon (AMZN) for a fraction of its expensive valuation. Yet, investors in SHOP continue to defy “common valuation logic” by pointing to Shopify’s incredible growth rates.<blockquote>当你可以以亚马逊(AMZN)昂贵估值的一小部分投资亚马逊(AMZN)时，Shopify的批评者经常质疑投资Shopify的逻辑。然而，SHOP的投资者继续无视“常见估值逻辑”，指出Shopify令人难以置信的增长率。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2dcffad535b32122075c2b0af38ff14\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"818\">SHOP and AMZN LTM Revenue Growth Trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>SHOP和AMZN LTM收入增长趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d799fb8dc581602cf953723e8439b3\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"710\">AMZN and SHOP LTM Revenue YoY Growth &amp; Revenue 3Y CAGR. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>AMZN和SHOP LTM收入同比增长和收入3年复合年增长率。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> Over the last 5 years, SHOP’s revenue growth has easily surpassed AMZN at every reporting quarter, and the pandemic fueled e-commerce tailwind also drove higher growth to SHOP as its LTM revenue YoY growth read 99.6% as compared to AMZN’s “meagre” 41.5%. Moreover, SHOP’s revenue 3Y CAGR of 63.3% also easily bested AMZN’s 3Y CAGR of 29.5%. So clearly, SHOP’s growth has been truly phenomenal.<blockquote>在过去的5年里，SHOP的收入增长在每个报告季度都轻松超过了AMZN，而疫情推动的电子商务顺风也推动了SHOP的更高增长，其LTM收入同比增长99.6%，而AMZN的“微薄”41.5%。此外，SHOP的收入3年复合年增长率为63.3%，也轻松超过了AMZN的3年复合年增长率29.5%。显然，SHOP的增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote> Shopify's Compelling Merchant Solutions Growth Drivers<blockquote>Shopify引人注目的商家解决方案增长动力</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530e31580ddf7319700509d7bb77eadf\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"605\">Shopify Revenue Segments. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>Shopify收入细分。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> In recent years, we could see that even though Shopify’s revenue growth has been pretty much broad-based, its merchant solutions segment has been taking up an increasingly large contribution in the company’s revenue base and have transformed itself into Shopify’s most important revenue driver, accounting for 67.6% of Q1’21 revenue. The shift towards increasing the revenue base of merchant solutions has seen the company continuing to roll out multiple new merchant solutions initiatives and services to further monetize the company’s merchant base and improve the strength of its ecosystem, therefore enhancing its “stickiness” and retention over time.<blockquote>近年来，我们可以看到，尽管Shopify的收入增长基础相当广泛，但其商家解决方案部门对公司收入基础的贡献越来越大，并已转变为Shopify最重要的收入驱动力，占21年第一季度收入的67.6%。向增加商户解决方案收入基础的转变使该公司继续推出多项新的商户解决方案计划和服务，以进一步将公司的商户基础货币化并提高其生态系统的实力，从而随着时间的推移增强其“粘性”和保留率。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e25591146598f17356e29c09b22ee48a\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"540\">Shopify Subscription Solutions and Merchant Solutions YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>Shopify订阅解决方案和商家解决方案同比增长。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> Investors should be careful not to get too excited with the pulled forward growth as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic that we observed in FY 20 as seen above. The management has already strongly emphasized in their guidance that they do not expect this to repeat, and&nbsp;expects YoY growth to normalize&nbsp;to levels seen before the pandemic, which in this case is estimated to be somewhere north of 50%. Even though growth is expected to normalize moving forward, it’s not as if SHOP has been growing slowly and more importantly the pulled forward growth last year has allowed SHOP to dramatically increase its merchants growth onto its platform for future monetization within Shopify’s robust ecosystem.<blockquote>投资者应小心，不要对我们在20财年观察到的COVID-19大流行导致的增长过于兴奋。管理层已经在指导中强烈强调，他们预计这种情况不会重演，并预计同比增长将恢复到大流行之前的水平，在这种情况下，估计超过50%。尽管未来的增长预计将正常化，但SHOP的增长并不缓慢，更重要的是，去年的增长使SHOP能够大幅增加其平台上的商户增长，以便在Shopify强大的生态系统中实现未来的货币化。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81297d610a91d9faaac76cab97c2a46\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"566\">Shopify Segment Gross Margins. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>Shopify部门毛利率。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> Although Q1’21’s gross margin was higher than recent historical trends, we should not expect this to carry on moving forward. The management pointed out clearly that the company is focusing its efforts to continue improving its robust ecosystem for its merchants such as developing the Shopify Fulfillment Network [SFN], as it expects that the&nbsp;merchant solutions segment to continue driving its revenue growth&nbsp;even if it means lesser gross margins moving forward.<blockquote>尽管21年第一季度的毛利率高于近期历史趋势，但我们不应指望这种情况会持续下去。管理层明确指出，公司正在集中精力继续为商家改善其强大的生态系统，例如开发Shopify履行网络[SFN]，因为它预计商家解决方案部门将继续推动其收入增长，即使这意味着未来的毛利率会降低。</blockquote> Shopify Payments is the Key to Unlock the Benefits from GMV Growth<blockquote>Shopify Payments是释放GMV增长优势的关键</blockquote> Despite that, the company clarified that as Shopify Payments continue to see increased adoption and usage among its merchants, the company expects to see significant improvement to its SG&amp;A efficiencies as Shopify Payments has a much lesser impact on SG&amp;A margins, therefore leading to improvement on operating efficiencies as Shopify Payments scale up further.<blockquote>尽管如此，该公司澄清说，随着Shopify Payments在其商家中的采用和使用量继续增加，该公司预计其SG&amp;A效率将显着提高，因为Shopify Payments对SG&amp;A利润率的影响要小得多，因此导致运营效率的提高随着Shopify支付规模的进一步扩大。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96f95af102893b8aa172d3bbb38e04e5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"724\">SHOP EBIT Margin, SG&amp;A Margin, R&amp;D Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>商店息税前利润率、SG&amp;A利润率、R&amp;D利润率、毛利率。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> Clearly, investors could see that despite posting a relatively high LTM gross margin profile in Q1’21: 53.5%, it has only recently turned LTM EBIT profitable (Q1’21: 10.5%), thanks to the company’s solid improvement with its operating efficiencies even though the gross margin profile has remained stable over time, even with the pulled forward growth from COVID-19 last year.<blockquote>显然，投资者可以看到，尽管21年第一季度的LTM毛利率相对较高：53.5%，但由于该公司运营效率的稳步改善，它直到最近才实现LTM息税前利润（21年第一季度：10.5%）尽管毛利率状况随着时间的推移保持稳定，尽管去年COVID-19带来了增长。</blockquote> We could see a consistently declining LTM SG&amp;A margin trend reaching 24.8% in Q1’21 from a high of 44.1% in Q4’16, signifying a huge improvement. Therefore, I’m confident that SHOP would continue to deliver improved operating efficiencies as it scales up its SFN to further strengthen its ecosystem, creating even more value and synergies for its merchants and their customers.<blockquote>我们可以看到LTM SG&amp;A利润率持续下降，从16年第4季度44.1%的高点达到21年第1季度的24.8%，这意味着巨大的改善。因此，我相信SHOP将继续提高运营效率，扩大SFN规模，进一步加强其生态系统，为商家及其客户创造更多价值和协同效应。</blockquote> SHOP’s GMV and GPV Analysis. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>商店的GMV和GPV分析。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6f4cabe3fd5b28627f459fb7c38d30d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">SHOP’s GMV and GPV YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>SHOP的GMV和GPV同比增长。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> We could clearly see the increasingly important role of Shopify Payments for its merchants as more and more merchants are using Shopify Payments over time as GPV growth has outpaced GMV growth consistently, with Q1’21 reading coming in at 137% YoY growth and 114.4% YoY growth, respectively.<blockquote>我们可以清楚地看到Shopify支付对其商家越来越重要的作用，随着时间的推移，越来越多的商家使用Shopify支付，GPV增长持续超过GMV增长，21年第一季度的读数分别为同比增长137%和114.4%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2221628cdde154ad2c8a97a321036aa9\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">SHOP GPV as a % of GMV. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>商店GPV占GMV的百分比。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> With the increased adoption and usage of Shopify Payments, in Q1’21 GPV formed 46.4% of GMV, from a low of 37.5% of GMV just 3 years ago. I believe Shopify is moving in the right direction to continue driving more and more merchants towards Shopify Payments as it creates a powerful flywheel to unlock even more and more of the expected massive GMV growth moving forward.<blockquote>随着Shopify支付的采用和使用不断增加，21年第一季度GPV占GMV的46.4%，而3年前仅占GMV的37.5%。我相信Shopify正在朝着正确的方向前进，继续推动越来越多的商家转向Shopify支付，因为它创造了一个强大的飞轮，可以释放越来越多预期的大规模GMV增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0258ae827634f290dfe0d7d81fd92809\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">Shopify MRR. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>Shopify先生。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2376f5f19c5f4a4cb9e4f4bb797fcb64\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">Shopify MRR YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>Shopify MRR同比增长。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> The sustained improvement in GPV growth has come at an important juncture as SHOP had already been experiencing slower MRR growth pre-pandemic (from 36% in Q1’19 to 21% in Q2’20). Therefore, by strategically being able to monetize its merchants in other areas has helped to manage this slowdown, while at the same time opened up many new revenue opportunities for Merchant Solutions to help drive the company’s future growth.<blockquote>GPV增长的持续改善正值一个重要时刻，因为SHOP在大流行之前就已经经历了MRR增长放缓（从19年第一季度的36%到20年第二季度的21%）。因此，通过战略性地将其他领域的商家货币化，有助于应对这种放缓，同时为商家解决方案开辟了许多新的收入机会，以帮助推动公司未来的增长。</blockquote> The Importance of International Expansion<blockquote>国际扩张的重要性</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26d7cd04a66b877c2669945d4f9a68ef\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"775\">Shopify Revenue by Merchant Location. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>按商家位置划分的Shopify收入。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31774ad4abd47199de636274620d5302\" tg-width=\"807\" tg-height=\"499\">Shopify Revenue by Merchant Location YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>按商家位置划分的Shopify收入同比增长。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> Although U.S. merchants continue to be SHOP’s most important revenue driver (66.7% of FY 20 revenue), the company has also experienced rapid growth in other geographical markets, particularly in its Rest of World segment. As we can observe from the above chart, U.S. growth has already been trending down pre-pandemic, while Rest of World growth has continued to grow rapidly and consistently.<blockquote>尽管美国商家仍然是SHOP最重要的收入驱动力（占20财年收入的66.7%），但该公司在其他地理市场也经历了快速增长，特别是在世界其他地区。从上图可以看出，美国的经济增长在大流行前就已经呈下降趋势，而世界其他地区的经济增长则继续快速持续增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39fd8a089cc64ae41da56ef8a8ddafe3\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"597\">Amazon Revenue Segments YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>亚马逊收入部门同比增长。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> We also observed this from AMZN’s International segment growth where although it has been somewhat of a laggard in previous quarters, it has started to outpace North America’s growth for the last 2 quarters, culminating in Q1’21 YoY growth of 60.4% for the International segment against 39.5% for the North America segment.<blockquote>我们还从AMZN的国际业务增长中观察到了这一点，尽管前几个季度有些落后，但过去两个季度已开始超过北美的增长，最终国际业务在21年第一季度同比增长60.4%。北美市场为39.5%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7909e7fdd6bf5972121d1a9a70f75a46\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">U.S. Retail e-commerce revenue 2017 to 2025. Data Source: Statista<blockquote>2017年至2025年美国零售电子商务收入。数据来源：Statista</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c99e9a30fb46d3d1f22e77b72c40740\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">U.S. Retail e-commerce revenue YoY Growth. Data Source: Statista<blockquote>美国零售电商收入同比增长。数据来源：Statista</blockquote> We could see from the above why ramping up growth internationally is so important for Shopify to continue delivering its expected spectacular growth rates. Even though Shopify merchants sell internationally, the fact that the SFN currently serves only businesses whosell to U.S. customersindicates the significance of the U.S. consumers to Shopify’s ecommerce revenues. However, as the growth of U.S. retail e-commerce revenue is expected to slow down over time (from 8.7% YoY in 2021 to 2.7% YoY by 2025), companies like Shopify who rely on high growth to justify its valuation must either take market share away from its key competitors or look for growth outside of the United States.<blockquote>从上面我们可以看出，为什么加快国际增长对于Shopify继续实现其预期的惊人增长率如此重要。尽管Shopify商家在国际上销售，但SFN目前仅为向美国客户销售的企业提供服务，这一事实表明了美国消费者对Shopify电子商务收入的重要性。然而，由于美国零售电子商务收入的增长预计将随着时间的推移而放缓（从2021年的同比8.7%降至2025年的同比2.7%），像Shopify这样依靠高增长来证明其估值合理性的公司必须要么从主要竞争对手那里获得市场份额，要么在美国以外寻求增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60f4fcd9254552bdd46a6d9c613384d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">Value of Southeast Asia e-commerce market. Data Source: Google, Temasek Holdings, Bain &amp; Company<blockquote>东南亚电子商务市场的价值。数据来源：谷歌、淡马锡控股、贝恩公司</blockquote> For example, if we look across to Southeast Asia, and compare the growth rates of the Southeast Asian market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 22.6%) and the United States market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 3.73%), it’s easy to see which market will be the key driver of e-commerce growth in the near future. There’s no doubt that the U.S. market remains an extremely important market given its size, however much of the future growth will likely come from overseas markets. Therefore, it’s important that Shopify continues to drive growth across other geographical markets.<blockquote>例如，如果我们放眼东南亚，比较东南亚市场（2020年至2025年的预期5年CAGR：22.6%）和美国市场（2020年至2025年的预期5年CAGR：3.73%）的增长率，很容易看出哪个市场将是不久的将来电子商务增长的主要驱动力。毫无疑问，鉴于其规模，美国市场仍然是一个极其重要的市场，但未来的增长很大一部分可能来自海外市场。因此，Shopify继续推动其他地理市场的增长非常重要。</blockquote> Let's Bring in Sea Limited<blockquote>让我们引入Sea Limited</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40fe31435cdc50217df4172982b7354\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"821\">Sea Limited &amp; SHOP EBIT Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Sea Limited&amp;商店息税前利润率、毛利率。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> In order to look at Shopify’s growth opportunities in the Southeast Asian market, I thought it would be important to first consider the most important e-commerce player in that region: Sea Limited (SE), which I had previouslycovered in detail in an article hererecently.<blockquote>为了了解Shopify在东南亚市场的增长机会，我认为首先考虑该地区最重要的电子商务参与者是很重要的：Sea Limited(SE)，我之前在一篇文章中详细介绍过它最近。</blockquote> It’s easy to see how SHOP’s more profitable business model on relying on subscriptions and merchant solutions drove a much higher EBIT margin as compared to SE’s online marketplace platform: Shopee, which is currently being supported by the company’s profitable Garena gaming segment.<blockquote>很容易看出，与SE的在线市场平台Shopee相比，SHOP依靠订阅和商家解决方案的利润更高的商业模式如何推动了更高的息税前利润率，Shopee目前由该公司盈利的Garena游戏部门提供支持。</blockquote> Despite that, Sea has still been able to drive significant revenue growth and operating efficiencies such that its EBIT margins have seen remarkable improvement.<blockquote>尽管如此，Sea仍然能够推动显着的收入增长和运营效率，使其息税前利润率显着提高。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788d4d4399cbdeb497792a1f90868e47\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"714\">EBIT Margin Forecast. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>息税前利润率预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> When we modelled SE and SHOP’s EBIT margins moving forward, we could see how both companies’ improving cost efficiencies, notably from the reduction in SG&amp;A margins, would help both companies to continue improving their operating margins over time.<blockquote>当我们对SE和SHOP未来的息税前利润率进行建模时，我们可以看到两家公司成本效率的提高，特别是SG&amp;A利润率的降低，将如何帮助两家公司随着时间的推移继续提高营业利润率。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f94e62035fe5fc04eaeb95b7d760df28\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"703\">SE and SHOP Projected Unlevered FCF Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>SE和SHOP预计无杠杆自由现金流利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> This is where their SE is expected to pull ahead. In modelling their FCF, SE is expected to generate so much FCF from its revenue growth and operating profits that the company looks increasingly like a massive cash flow machine moving forward. It’s not as if SHOP looks sloppy, but when compared to SE’s FCF margins, they certainly don’t look as impressive though.<blockquote>这是他们的SE有望领先的地方。在模拟自由现金流时，SE预计将从其收入增长和营业利润中产生如此多的自由现金流，以至于该公司看起来越来越像一台向前发展的巨大现金流机器。SHOP看起来并不马虎，但与SE的自由现金流利润率相比，它们看起来肯定没有那么令人印象深刻。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa625e12090dfc0f64e439c278b5b9d0\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"649\">SE and SHOP Projected Revenue CAGR (5Y, 10Y), 10Y Projected Av. Unlevered FCF Margin, EV / FY+1 Rev. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>SE和SHOP预计收入CAGR（5年、10年）、10年预计Av。无杠杆自由现金流利润率，EV/FY+1修订版数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> More importantly, when we bring their current valuation levels into the picture (EV / FY+1 Rev), we could see that SE’s current valuation (16.3x) looks so much more attractive than SHOP’s (32.7x), while being able to convert that rapid revenue growth into higher FCF margins. It should also be noted that I have modelled both companies to continue their blockbuster performances: SE (5Y CAGR of 44.3%, 10Y CAGR of 26.7%), SHOP (5Y CAGR 41.4%, 10Y CAGR 32.3%).<blockquote>更重要的是，当我们考虑到他们当前的估值水平（EV/FY+1 Rev）时，我们可以看到SE当前的估值（16.3倍）看起来比SHOP的（32.7倍）更具吸引力，同时能够将快速的收入增长转化为更高的自由现金流利润率。还应该指出的是，我对这两家公司进行了建模，以继续其出色的表现：SE（5年复合年增长率为44.3%，10年复合年增长率为26.7%）、SHOP（5年复合年增长率为41.4%，10年复合年增长率为32.3%）。</blockquote> Therefore, for investors who would like a share of that rapid international growth in the Southeast Asian market coupled with a leading cash flow generating gaming segment, you should look no further than SE.<blockquote>因此，对于想要分享东南亚市场快速国际增长以及领先的现金流产生游戏领域的投资者来说，您应该看看SE。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4df93eabc2cf51bdca0056071317076a\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">Market share of e-commerce software platforms in the U.S. in 2021 Data Source: Builtwith<blockquote>2021年美国电商软件平台市场份额数据来源：Builtwith</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2485bbbc639e9512e106f6dd1ab48ff\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">Unique visitors to the most popular online retailers in SEA in 2020. Data Source: iPrice Group, SimilarWeb, Marketing in Asia<blockquote>2020年SEA最受欢迎在线零售商的独立访客。数据来源：iPrice Group、SimilarWeb、亚洲市场营销</blockquote> When we consider the competitive economics in the U.S. against Southeast Asia, it becomes very clear. Shopify faces strong competition within its software platform segment, without accounting for Amazon’s prowess as well. Even though I expect Shopify to continue its rapid expansion, I believe that it faces more intensive competitive threats than Sea Limited as the pie in the U.S. is expected to grow slower over time. SHOP needs almost perfect execution every quarter to justify its lofty valuations.<blockquote>当我们考虑美国与东南亚的竞争经济学时，这一点就变得非常清楚了。Shopify在其软件平台领域面临着激烈的竞争，但也没有考虑到亚马逊的实力。尽管我预计Shopify将继续快速扩张，但我相信它比Sea Limited面临更激烈的竞争威胁，因为随着时间的推移，美国的市场增长预计会放缓。SHOP每个季度都需要近乎完美的执行才能证明其高估值的合理性。</blockquote> As compared to SE, it is clearly the dominant online marketplace now in Southeast Asia by a fairly large margin, and its prowess and scale is also growing, further stretching the distance from its competitors. Coupled with its ShopeePay payments platform, it also creates a flywheel effect similar to what Shopify Payments does for Shopify. The leadership in Southeast Asia is surely Sea’s to lose, and there’s so much potential growth that the company can capture in this region as the undisputed leader. When we consider Shopify’s valuations against SE’s it looks quite clear SE’s valuation looks more attractive now, with stronger market leadership and arguably higher potential growth.<blockquote>与SE相比，它显然是东南亚在线市场的主导者，其实力和规模也在增长，进一步拉开了与竞争对手的距离。再加上其ShopeePay支付平台，它还创造了类似于Shopify Payments为Shopify所做的飞轮效应。东南亚的领导地位肯定是Sea失去的，而且该公司作为无可争议的领导者可以在该地区抓住巨大的增长潜力。当我们将Shopify的估值与SE的估值进行比较时，很明显SE的估值现在看起来更具吸引力，具有更强的市场领导地位和可以说更高的潜在增长。</blockquote> Price Action and Technical Analysis<blockquote>价格行为和技术分析</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a9782afa86bafbd3d2e54e41e0c1d13\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"794\">Source: TradingView<blockquote>资料来源：TradingView</blockquote> SHOP’s price action has been stuck somewhat in a large consolidation phase since Oct 20, with the bull trap set in Feb 21 at around the $1500 level. Support was found at around the $1000 level, with further support at around the $835 level for investors who wish to add further into SHOP. It’s important to note that despite SHOP’s lofty valuations, its long term uptrend bias has never been threatened, and I expect this to carry on moving forward.<blockquote>自10月20日以来，SHOP的价格走势一直陷入大幅盘整阶段，牛市陷阱于2月21日设定在1500美元左右。对于希望进一步增持的投资者来说，支撑位在1000美元左右，进一步支撑位在835美元左右。值得注意的是，尽管SHOP的估值很高，但其长期上升趋势偏见从未受到威胁，我预计这种情况将继续下去。</blockquote> Wrapping it all up<blockquote>把这一切包起来</blockquote> Although Shopify is one of the most expensive high quality e-commerce stocks right now, it’s also expected to generate rapid growth ahead with its ever improving ecosystem for its merchants. Coupled with one of the strongest long term uptrend biases that I have seen for stocks (It didn’t lose its key support levels even during the COVID-19 bear market), I believe this puts SHOP in a strong position as a stock to add aggressively at the next big dip.<blockquote>尽管Shopify是目前最昂贵的优质电子商务股票之一，但随着其商家生态系统的不断改善，预计它也将在未来实现快速增长。再加上我所见过的股票最强烈的长期上升趋势偏差之一（即使在COVID-19熊市期间，它也没有失去关键支撑位），我相信这使SHOP作为一只股票处于有利地位，可以在下一次大幅下跌时积极增加。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433111-shopify-an-expensive-stock-that-keeps-delivering\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SHOP":"Shopify Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433111-shopify-an-expensive-stock-that-keeps-delivering","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167651093","content_text":"Summary\n\nShopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the company despite its high valuations.\nThe company has multiple growth drivers in Payments, and International markets to further drive its growth story.\nIts technical picture also shows a stock that has always been strongly supported along its long-term uptrend.\nI attempt to discuss the key aspects of its operating performances and why investors should also focus on international expansion as a key aspect of e-commerce growth.\n\nPhoto by JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nShopify (SHOP) is one of the most hotly debated e-commerce stocks because of its explosive revenue growth rates and its high valuations. The company continues to demonstrate both stellar topline and bottomline growth while also improving its cash flow margins. The management’s ability to monetize its merchants through Shopify Payments and its suite of merchant solutions is a masterstroke that shows the capability of the management to be able to continue executing its high growth strategies with aplomb moving forward. Despite its relatively high valuation levels, it also remains a very strong stock from the technical point of view, so bullish investors may consider adding it at the next dip.\nShopify: Defying Amazon’s Valuation Logic\nShopify’s critics have often questioned the logic of investing in Shopify when you can invest in Amazon (AMZN) for a fraction of its expensive valuation. Yet, investors in SHOP continue to defy “common valuation logic” by pointing to Shopify’s incredible growth rates.\nSHOP and AMZN LTM Revenue Growth Trend. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nAMZN and SHOP LTM Revenue YoY Growth & Revenue 3Y CAGR. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nOver the last 5 years, SHOP’s revenue growth has easily surpassed AMZN at every reporting quarter, and the pandemic fueled e-commerce tailwind also drove higher growth to SHOP as its LTM revenue YoY growth read 99.6% as compared to AMZN’s “meagre” 41.5%. Moreover, SHOP’s revenue 3Y CAGR of 63.3% also easily bested AMZN’s 3Y CAGR of 29.5%. So clearly, SHOP’s growth has been truly phenomenal.\nShopify's Compelling Merchant Solutions Growth Drivers\nShopify Revenue Segments. Data Source: Company Filings\nIn recent years, we could see that even though Shopify’s revenue growth has been pretty much broad-based, its merchant solutions segment has been taking up an increasingly large contribution in the company’s revenue base and have transformed itself into Shopify’s most important revenue driver, accounting for 67.6% of Q1’21 revenue. The shift towards increasing the revenue base of merchant solutions has seen the company continuing to roll out multiple new merchant solutions initiatives and services to further monetize the company’s merchant base and improve the strength of its ecosystem, therefore enhancing its “stickiness” and retention over time.\nShopify Subscription Solutions and Merchant Solutions YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nInvestors should be careful not to get too excited with the pulled forward growth as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic that we observed in FY 20 as seen above. The management has already strongly emphasized in their guidance that they do not expect this to repeat, and expects YoY growth to normalize to levels seen before the pandemic, which in this case is estimated to be somewhere north of 50%. Even though growth is expected to normalize moving forward, it’s not as if SHOP has been growing slowly and more importantly the pulled forward growth last year has allowed SHOP to dramatically increase its merchants growth onto its platform for future monetization within Shopify’s robust ecosystem.\nShopify Segment Gross Margins. Data Source: Company Filings\nAlthough Q1’21’s gross margin was higher than recent historical trends, we should not expect this to carry on moving forward. The management pointed out clearly that the company is focusing its efforts to continue improving its robust ecosystem for its merchants such as developing the Shopify Fulfillment Network [SFN], as it expects that the merchant solutions segment to continue driving its revenue growth even if it means lesser gross margins moving forward.\nShopify Payments is the Key to Unlock the Benefits from GMV Growth\nDespite that, the company clarified that as Shopify Payments continue to see increased adoption and usage among its merchants, the company expects to see significant improvement to its SG&A efficiencies as Shopify Payments has a much lesser impact on SG&A margins, therefore leading to improvement on operating efficiencies as Shopify Payments scale up further.\nSHOP EBIT Margin, SG&A Margin, R&D Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nClearly, investors could see that despite posting a relatively high LTM gross margin profile in Q1’21: 53.5%, it has only recently turned LTM EBIT profitable (Q1’21: 10.5%), thanks to the company’s solid improvement with its operating efficiencies even though the gross margin profile has remained stable over time, even with the pulled forward growth from COVID-19 last year.\nWe could see a consistently declining LTM SG&A margin trend reaching 24.8% in Q1’21 from a high of 44.1% in Q4’16, signifying a huge improvement. Therefore, I’m confident that SHOP would continue to deliver improved operating efficiencies as it scales up its SFN to further strengthen its ecosystem, creating even more value and synergies for its merchants and their customers.\nSHOP’s GMV and GPV Analysis. Data Source: Company Filings\nSHOP’s GMV and GPV YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nWe could clearly see the increasingly important role of Shopify Payments for its merchants as more and more merchants are using Shopify Payments over time as GPV growth has outpaced GMV growth consistently, with Q1’21 reading coming in at 137% YoY growth and 114.4% YoY growth, respectively.\nSHOP GPV as a % of GMV. Data Source: Company Filings\nWith the increased adoption and usage of Shopify Payments, in Q1’21 GPV formed 46.4% of GMV, from a low of 37.5% of GMV just 3 years ago. I believe Shopify is moving in the right direction to continue driving more and more merchants towards Shopify Payments as it creates a powerful flywheel to unlock even more and more of the expected massive GMV growth moving forward.\nShopify MRR. Data Source: Company Filings\nShopify MRR YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nThe sustained improvement in GPV growth has come at an important juncture as SHOP had already been experiencing slower MRR growth pre-pandemic (from 36% in Q1’19 to 21% in Q2’20). Therefore, by strategically being able to monetize its merchants in other areas has helped to manage this slowdown, while at the same time opened up many new revenue opportunities for Merchant Solutions to help drive the company’s future growth.\nThe Importance of International Expansion\nShopify Revenue by Merchant Location. Data Source: Company Filings\nShopify Revenue by Merchant Location YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nAlthough U.S. merchants continue to be SHOP’s most important revenue driver (66.7% of FY 20 revenue), the company has also experienced rapid growth in other geographical markets, particularly in its Rest of World segment. As we can observe from the above chart, U.S. growth has already been trending down pre-pandemic, while Rest of World growth has continued to grow rapidly and consistently.\nAmazon Revenue Segments YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nWe also observed this from AMZN’s International segment growth where although it has been somewhat of a laggard in previous quarters, it has started to outpace North America’s growth for the last 2 quarters, culminating in Q1’21 YoY growth of 60.4% for the International segment against 39.5% for the North America segment.\nU.S. Retail e-commerce revenue 2017 to 2025. Data Source: Statista\nU.S. Retail e-commerce revenue YoY Growth. Data Source: Statista\nWe could see from the above why ramping up growth internationally is so important for Shopify to continue delivering its expected spectacular growth rates. Even though Shopify merchants sell internationally, the fact that the SFN currently serves only businesses whosell to U.S. customersindicates the significance of the U.S. consumers to Shopify’s ecommerce revenues. However, as the growth of U.S. retail e-commerce revenue is expected to slow down over time (from 8.7% YoY in 2021 to 2.7% YoY by 2025), companies like Shopify who rely on high growth to justify its valuation must either take market share away from its key competitors or look for growth outside of the United States.\nValue of Southeast Asia e-commerce market. Data Source: Google, Temasek Holdings, Bain & Company\nFor example, if we look across to Southeast Asia, and compare the growth rates of the Southeast Asian market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 22.6%) and the United States market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 3.73%), it’s easy to see which market will be the key driver of e-commerce growth in the near future. There’s no doubt that the U.S. market remains an extremely important market given its size, however much of the future growth will likely come from overseas markets. Therefore, it’s important that Shopify continues to drive growth across other geographical markets.\nLet's Bring in Sea Limited\nSea Limited & SHOP EBIT Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nIn order to look at Shopify’s growth opportunities in the Southeast Asian market, I thought it would be important to first consider the most important e-commerce player in that region: Sea Limited (SE), which I had previouslycovered in detail in an article hererecently.\nIt’s easy to see how SHOP’s more profitable business model on relying on subscriptions and merchant solutions drove a much higher EBIT margin as compared to SE’s online marketplace platform: Shopee, which is currently being supported by the company’s profitable Garena gaming segment.\nDespite that, Sea has still been able to drive significant revenue growth and operating efficiencies such that its EBIT margins have seen remarkable improvement.\nEBIT Margin Forecast. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we modelled SE and SHOP’s EBIT margins moving forward, we could see how both companies’ improving cost efficiencies, notably from the reduction in SG&A margins, would help both companies to continue improving their operating margins over time.\nSE and SHOP Projected Unlevered FCF Margin. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nThis is where their SE is expected to pull ahead. In modelling their FCF, SE is expected to generate so much FCF from its revenue growth and operating profits that the company looks increasingly like a massive cash flow machine moving forward. It’s not as if SHOP looks sloppy, but when compared to SE’s FCF margins, they certainly don’t look as impressive though.\nSE and SHOP Projected Revenue CAGR (5Y, 10Y), 10Y Projected Av. Unlevered FCF Margin, EV / FY+1 Rev. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nMore importantly, when we bring their current valuation levels into the picture (EV / FY+1 Rev), we could see that SE’s current valuation (16.3x) looks so much more attractive than SHOP’s (32.7x), while being able to convert that rapid revenue growth into higher FCF margins. It should also be noted that I have modelled both companies to continue their blockbuster performances: SE (5Y CAGR of 44.3%, 10Y CAGR of 26.7%), SHOP (5Y CAGR 41.4%, 10Y CAGR 32.3%).\nTherefore, for investors who would like a share of that rapid international growth in the Southeast Asian market coupled with a leading cash flow generating gaming segment, you should look no further than SE.\nMarket share of e-commerce software platforms in the U.S. in 2021 Data Source: Builtwith\nUnique visitors to the most popular online retailers in SEA in 2020. Data Source: iPrice Group, SimilarWeb, Marketing in Asia\nWhen we consider the competitive economics in the U.S. against Southeast Asia, it becomes very clear. Shopify faces strong competition within its software platform segment, without accounting for Amazon’s prowess as well. Even though I expect Shopify to continue its rapid expansion, I believe that it faces more intensive competitive threats than Sea Limited as the pie in the U.S. is expected to grow slower over time. SHOP needs almost perfect execution every quarter to justify its lofty valuations.\nAs compared to SE, it is clearly the dominant online marketplace now in Southeast Asia by a fairly large margin, and its prowess and scale is also growing, further stretching the distance from its competitors. Coupled with its ShopeePay payments platform, it also creates a flywheel effect similar to what Shopify Payments does for Shopify. The leadership in Southeast Asia is surely Sea’s to lose, and there’s so much potential growth that the company can capture in this region as the undisputed leader. When we consider Shopify’s valuations against SE’s it looks quite clear SE’s valuation looks more attractive now, with stronger market leadership and arguably higher potential growth.\nPrice Action and Technical Analysis\nSource: TradingView\nSHOP’s price action has been stuck somewhat in a large consolidation phase since Oct 20, with the bull trap set in Feb 21 at around the $1500 level. Support was found at around the $1000 level, with further support at around the $835 level for investors who wish to add further into SHOP. It’s important to note that despite SHOP’s lofty valuations, its long term uptrend bias has never been threatened, and I expect this to carry on moving forward.\nWrapping it all up\nAlthough Shopify is one of the most expensive high quality e-commerce stocks right now, it’s also expected to generate rapid growth ahead with its ever improving ecosystem for its merchants. Coupled with one of the strongest long term uptrend biases that I have seen for stocks (It didn’t lose its key support levels even during the COVID-19 bear market), I believe this puts SHOP in a strong position as a stock to add aggressively at the next big dip.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SHOP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2096,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}