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2021-06-06

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Micron: A Strong Chip Shortage Play

Summary Micron's four business units have sizable TAMs. Both the DRAM and NAND industries have favo

Micron: A Strong Chip Shortage Play

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":115875897,"tweetId":"115875897","gmtCreate":1622979510419,"gmtModify":1634096436256,"author":{"id":3575231727264140,"idStr":"3575231727264140","authorId":3575231727264140,"authorIdStr":"3575231727264140","name":"keew","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Please like and comment. Thanks&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Please like and comment. Thanks&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Please like and comment. Thanks","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115875897","repostId":1102972710,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102972710","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622948427,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102972710?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-06 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron: A Strong Chip Shortage Play","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102972710","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMicron's four business units have sizable TAMs.\nBoth the DRAM and NAND industries have favo","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Micron's four business units have sizable TAMs.</li>\n <li>Both the DRAM and NAND industries have favourable outlooks.</li>\n <li>Industry tailwinds point to pricing power and expanding margins.</li>\n <li>The strong financials of the company will serve them well in the current high-volatility environment.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b87dd8114b0aa47fdcdd26e5dc40d5ee\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"896\">Photo by vchal/iStock via Getty Images\nMicron Technology(NASDAQ:MU)&nbsp;is a severely undervalued semiconductor play with significant upside based upon conservative estimates, strong fundamentals, and favorable industry tailwinds. The current semiconductor shortage worldwide has put pressure upon semiconductor companies as they rush to ramp up production after an intentional slowdown and supply disruption amidst the pandemic. Forecasts and estimates regarding how fast demand was to bounce back came in entirely too conservative, and as a result the unprecedented surge in demand with a lagging supply has buyers of semiconductor chips such as&nbsp;auto manufacturers forced to slash production.\nSemiconductors of all kinds are the fundamental basic unit and brains of products ranging from audio devices, security cameras, automobiles, to even smart fridges. When it comes to a global shortage in a time as such, companies that are 'fabless' lose out and those that have their own manufacturing facilities and plants gain the upper hand as flexibility and production output remains in their ballpark. Today we examine how Micron is one of them, and despite its remarkable run up 54% since the start of 2020, there is considerable upside remaining given the size of the different total addressable markets(NYSE:TAM)that Micron is targeting.\nBusiness Model\nMicron is one of the top 3 memory chip makers in the world with a product portfolio featuring DRAM, NAND, NOR, and even&nbsp;3D XPoint SSDs that they have since ceased production.Management guided that the decision comes amidst the findings that:\n<blockquote>\n There was insufficient market validation to justify the ongoing investments required to commercialize 3D XPoint at scale.\n</blockquote>\nAs promising as the 3D XPoint developments that Micron had that first started as a joint partnership with Intel in 2015 before parting ways in 2018 was, the impact moving forward will be minimal given that revenue from selling DRAM and NAND chips still accounts for the majority of Micron's Revenue, and 3D XPoint SSDs had yet to scale up.\nDRAM and NAND\nDRAM (Dynamic Random-Access Memory) devices are essentially a type of low latency memory product commonly used in PCs, servers, smartphones, and automobiles.\nIt is 'volatile' as content will be lost if the power supply is turned off. As such, DRAM devices store information that needs to be quickly accessed by the CPU / GPU. CPUs provide the raw computational power needed to run software programs and RAMs store the data and software code needed by the CPU to run in real-time.\nThe DRAM market operates as an oligopolistic one, with the 3 biggest competitors, Samsung (OTC:SSNLF), SK Hynix (OTC:HXSCL), and Micron dominating 94.1% of the market share. Samsung leads with 42% as of the latest fiscal quarter, SK Hynix second with 29% and Micron close behind with&nbsp;23.1% of the market share.Amongst the 3, Micron is the only one operating in the U.S with Samsung &amp; SK Hynix based in South Korea. This geographical advantage has come to serve Micron well in the automobile memory market as I will proceed to prove later, although it can be argued that this very same factor has placed the 2 Korean companies in a better position to service the&nbsp;largest consumer of DRAMs&nbsp;by region - China. In 2019, China accounted for 55.42% of global DRAM consumption by region.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c2b471dd41b837a1ad129c180fa0b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\">Source: Statista Global DRAM Market Share\nAs of the latest fiscal quarter 21, DRAM sales represented&nbsp;71.26%&nbsp;of the company's total revenue. Although there may be the risk of concentration with a substantial portion of sales coming from 1 of the 3 main product offerings, DRAM chips have always represented the majority of the firm's sales. With favorable industry tailwinds, positive outlook regarding overall DRAM market dynamics, pricing power, and very likely higher margins as a result, this concentration of sales will likely also prove to be more of a boon than a bane for Micron in the current economic environment that we are in today.\nHistorically, Micron has also retained a firm hold of their share in the DRAM market and has made an effort to gradually increase it overtime since CY 2016. The inherently high BTE and economies of scale in an oligopolistic market coupled with necessary high CAPEX spending serves to grant the dominant 3 a firm hold in the DRAM market for years to come. The chart below shows Micron holding a steady 20 - 23% market share since CY 15, testament to their persistent presence as a top 3 market player.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/371a886343d14f2ba3407afa02804db5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\">Source: Author's Compilations\nTAM: As DRAM products represent a majority of Micron's sales, it is imperative that the market they are operating in has a bright future and is on track to grow.According to MarketWatch,the global DRAM market revenue was valued at $62.1 BN in 2020 and is expected to grow to $91.1 BN by the end of 2026, representing a CAGR of 8%. With a sizable TAM in their leading product offering, the company should reap in the rewards of a growing market in terms of future revenue. As DRAM products also bring in higher margins at the end of the day based on CNBU and MBU (explained below) Operating Margins, this acts as a further catalyst for Micron.\nMicron also offers NAND products and though it represents a smaller chunk of Total Revenue relative to DRAMs, it still accounted for a meaningful&nbsp;26.46%&nbsp;as of Q2 FY 21. NAND chips are used for the storage of information. Slower than DRAMs for accessing memory quickly, they are 'non-volatile' as the content can still be accessed should the power supply be cut off. These are commonly found in hard drives, smartphones and data centers.\nLikewise, the dominant 3 in the DRAM market also represent a significant portion of the NAND market albeit having more competitors. In the NAND flash market, Micron ranks 5th worldwide, behind the same industry leader - Samsung. As of Q1 21, Samsung dominated with 33.5% market share, Kioxia 18.7%, Western Digital (WDC) 14.4%, SK Hynix 12.3%, and Micron with 11.1%. However, in a market very similar to that of DRAM, acquisitions by the big power players can be expected to further solidify their presence and chew out competitors. As it is, SK Hynix has&nbsp;announced plans to acquire&nbsp;Intel's NAND Storage Unit (INTC), which represented a 7.5% market share in the NAND market beginning this year. Moving forward, this move is likely to bump the Korean company up to 2nd place with about 20% of the market, overtaking Kioxia. It is important to note however that this acquisition does not include Intel's Optane 3D XPoint portfolio that Intel will be retaining.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b8da20e0246607003c65afa09ff3998\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"403\">Source: Statista Global NAND Flash Market Share\nDespite having more competition and less pricing power in this market, there too have been rumors that Micron is looking to make a move on Kioxia in a&nbsp;similar bid for $30 BN&nbsp;to enhance the competitiveness in its storage solutions in a rapidly growing NAND flash space. Western Digital also stands as a potential opposing bidder with both firms having merits as to why they should be the ideal one to acquire Kioxia. As of now, leverage seems to be in the hands of Micron as a firm with much more operating cashflow and a better balance sheet.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e220cb5c3b6dea5d0f84bde25765bfa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\">Source: Author's Compilations\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8e8ee498e5b2469b09b1605b2ef98a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\">Source: Author's Compilations\nThe $30 BN that Kioxia has been rumored to be valued at represents more than the entire Market Cap &amp; EV of Western Digital. Besides, the firm already has more Total Debt relative to Micron, lower Operating Cashflows, and has a lower LTM Current Ratio of 2.01 compared to the 3.18 that Micron has that speaks directly to MU's near term liquidity strength. Surface level financial analysis goes to show that this would be a deal likely to go to Micron despite WDC having a joint venture with Kioxia. Furthermore, Micron has a rather&nbsp;long history of acquisitions&nbsp;having acquired Numonyx, a NOR manufacturer in 2010, Elpida Memory &amp; Rexchip Electronics in 2013, Tidal Systems, Convey Computer, and Pico Computing in 2015, Inotera Memories in 2016… the list goes on. As you can see, Micron is quite the decorated acquiring firm.\nIf successful, Micron's NAND dominance has the potential to leap from its 5th placing, 11.1% of the market share to 29.8%, placing them as the 2nd biggest player, just 370 Bps below that of Samsung, and this is after accounting for SK Hynix's recent acquisition of Intel's NAND operations.\nMore Conviction\nFor more conviction in our thesis, we can look to the performance and different TAMs in Micron's business units breakdown.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8953a521354fd97f74d0f8694e0a0ee6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"204\">Source: Micron's Q2 Investor Presentation\nAs of FQ-2 21, CNBUs (Compute &amp; Networking Business Unit) as always represented the largest portion of the firm's sales, taking up 42% of TR. This unit consists of memory products like DRAM &amp; NAND sold to client, cloud servers, graphics, enterprise and networking markets as defined by the&nbsp;10-Q.The 34% YOY improvement is promising but the really exciting growth came from MBUs and remains to be seen in EBUs.\nMBUs (Mobile Business Unit) represent the 2nd biggest revenue segment for Micron, accounting for 29% of TR, up an impressive 44% YOY. MBUs are memory and storage products for mobile devices, most notably smartphones. According to&nbsp;Mordor Intelligence,the global smartphone market will be valued at more than a trillion dollars by 2026, up from the $715 BN in 2020, a CAGR of 11.6%. Although therein lies the risk that the smartphone replacement cycle has been lengthening, the gradual shift to 5G overtime will force smartphone users to have to upgrade to a 5G capable one that can operate on the same frequency. Doing so will mean more DRAM and NAND content per unit that Micron will stand to benefit from.\nHowever, what's being left out by many is Micron's dominant position in the memory market for automobiles and the sizable TAM in this space moving forward. EBUs (Embedded Business Unit) represent the 2nd smallest revenue segment (15% of TR) of the 4 that Micron has. This essentially refers to embedded memory and storage chips sold to automotive, industrial, and consumer markets. Despite not being the main cash cow for Micron, EBUs still saw remarkable growth of 34% YOY in FQ-2. Micron may have been 3rd in the overall DRAM space and 5th in the overall NAND space, but they are the only memory chip provider with a substantial close to&nbsp;50% market share&nbsp;in the space, according to Trendforce, a world leading market intelligence provider.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e31402367246f258d67658ada2e3a41e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"229\">Source: Micron's Automotive Division\nThis is where the geographical advantage for Micron comes into play. Micron effectively leverages their collaborative relationships with Tier-1 automobile suppliers based in Europe and the U.S to service them their comprehensive product portfolio of automotive memory solutions ranging from&nbsp;DDR2 - DDR 4 solutions to LPDDR 2 -5 solutions.The pure growth in this space can be seen from the fact that the average DRAM content of cars will continue to grow at a CAGR of more than&nbsp;30% from 2021 - 2024.That is by far the biggest growth sector in any of Micron's Business Units moving forward and Micron's 30 years of leadership in the automobile memory space with no dominant position from Samsung or SK Hynix will come to serve them well in an era where we transition to EVs &amp; AVs.\nAs it is, Tesla has already shown that new electric vehicles will be needing a lot more DRAM content and this trend will continue to play out as the world demands more cars with more technological capabilities. In its earlier Model S &amp; X, Tesla reached at least 8GB of DRAM content within the vehicles. The newer Model 3, however, is further equipped with 14GB of DRAM content and the&nbsp;next generation of Tesla Models will have even more at 20GB.\nThe growing automobile memory space where Micron has maintained its underdog&nbsp;30-year leadership&nbsp;will come to serve them well in the future as we transition to more sustainable and green versions of automobiles that demand more memory as well. Just remember that the more software a device has, the more memory is needed. Hence, we should be able to see positive growth in the EBU segment moving forward. However, one thing to note is that the EBU segment consists of sales to other industries that may be lagging and as a whole, the Operating Margins(NASDAQ:OM)from this segment of 15% stands pale in comparison to the OM in the CNBU segment of 26.9% and 25.6% in MBUs.\nIndustry Tailwinds\nMoving on to the industry outlook, Micron operates in a somewhat commoditized sector which experiences the extreme booms and busts of the demand cycle for PCs and Servers. Despite being a rather cyclical stock where the stock price is commanded largely by the DD and SS of computer chips and production capacity in general, it appears as if we are at the lows of the cycle and Micron remains to be one of the better plays for the ongoing global chip shortage as we begin the next leg up.\nFor a brief explanation on how the memory chip market moves overtime, let me take a stab at it. In essence, the overall supply of memory chips - most of which is produced by the dominant 3 - relative to demand, dictates the prices of chips, and therefore affects the financials of companies.\nWhen the memory market is in a 'bull' cycle as it was in 2010, 2014, 2018, and forecasted DD is set to outpace production capacities by firms, it results in a near-term shortage where the dominant market players (MU included) have the power to raise prices and maximize revenues. As COGS remain relatively constant regardless of the commodity cycle, this eventually translates to higher Gross Margins(NYSE:GM)for firms, a higher EBITDA which coincides nicely with stock price outperformance, and likely a higher bottom line. Although market players tend to agree on CAPEX spending and limit production capacities as a hedge from overproduction, firms blinded by the profits and higher margins tend to chase 'gains' and make the most of the cycle by capturing as much market share as possible.\nWhen firms do that and start to ramp up capacity with no regard for agreed limitations on production capacity and CAPEX spend, overproduction usually ensues that overwhelms the already inflated DD that is now dwindling, resulting in a surplus which brings just about the opposite consequence. Firms then lose pricing power and experience compressing margins in the years to follow, before the slowdown in capacity because of this very surplus eventually dips below future forecasted DD, thereby kickstarting the next leg up because of a shortage.\nLooking to history, when Micron has enjoyed higher EBITDA during those bull commodity cycles when there is a shortage in the industry, the stock price tends to outperform as well, in line with the higher pricing power and margins the firm experiences.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18c32366202010d3411e7888fcae587f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\">Source: Author's Compilations\n2018 represented the peak in the previous memory market commodity cycle where the dominant industry players overbuilt capacity chasing margins, and as a result experienced the surplus and its consequences since. Because EBITDA has been falling since 2018 and GM, OM, and NPM have all cumulatively been decreasing YOY, so has the stock price. However, we are now facing another shortage in the DRAM market as production has slowed since the resulting slowdown in 2018. This coupled with an unprecedented surge in demand for chips, fueled by the emerging hyper-growth industries brought forward by the pandemic sets the stage for Micron's potential rally up. With a transition to 5G, Electric and Autonomous Vehicles, Artificial Intelligence, IOTs, Cloud Computing, Cobotic Manufacturing and Healthcare Telemedicine, the convergence of these advanced technologies mean more demand for advanced memory solutions, and Micron stands to win from it all.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/060cf4c42cb775ea2a1d35cbd3b796e1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"261\">Source: Micron FQ-2 Investor Presentation\nThe industry outlook only serves to confirm the shifting tides in the memory market, with the DRAM market facing a severe shortage and optimistic long-term demand growth at a CAGR around 15-19%. A shortage may not seem like good news, but for a dominant market player like Micron that can raise prices and aren't reliant on outsourced production, it is. For further confirmation we can look to the upwardly revised estimates regarding the rise in DRAM prices in Q1 and Q2 of 2021 by&nbsp;Trendforce:\n<blockquote>\n Trendforce predicts that DRAM prices will rise 13-18% in the second quarter of 2021 &amp; they already rose 3-8% in the first quarter of 2021.\n</blockquote>\nCall it inflation, call it whatever you want, but what I do know is that the higher prices in the DRAM market that has since manifested itself and has been forecasted to rise even higher will translate to higher profits for Micron. Market players are likely to make the most of this shortage as demand will not taper off given the fundamental need for memory chips against the backdrop of an era where advanced technologies are so rampant. Analysts too are forecasting improved revenues and earnings seen from the number of upward revisions and none downward in the last 3 months.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff33c479a31ba4e4ee56a91be2d78318\" tg-width=\"456\" tg-height=\"111\">Source: Seeking Alpha\nIn the NAND market, although production output has been forecasted to be oversupplied due to increasing shipments, CY 21 demand is still expected to be around 30 - 35% and CAPEX cuts are likely to be implemented.\nFinancials\nQ1 Revenue delivered 12% growth YOY, GM a 359 Bps improvement to 30.90% and NPM a 488 Bps growth YOY to a healthy 15.54%. Q2 delivered even better numbers, with Revenues coming in at $6.2 BN despite management guidance of $5.8 BN. GM further improved to 32.93% and NPM increased 731 Bps YOY to end the quarter with NPM at 18.09%. All of the above are NON-GAAP numbers.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07766c05dc0d46a9660c290084da2442\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"209\">Source: Micron FQ-2 Investor Presentation\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9d3f14c1b13fc41c6c44c29f8a947fb\" tg-width=\"451\" tg-height=\"145\">Source: Seeking Alpha\nManagement also has a history of beating estimates with 8 beats in the last 2 years, effectively delivering a 100% probability that it will beat its own guidance moving forward, although not a guarantee as with anything else in business and life. Yet, forward guidance for FQ-3 is expecting a 30% improvement in Revenues YOY and GM to further rise to 41.5%, compared to the 33.17% they did last year and 32.93% just last quarter. As for DEPS estimates, the $1.62 estimate given by management implies a remarkable 98% YOY increase. Analyst consensus estimates come in even higher than that for the upcoming FQ-3 earnings to be reported on&nbsp;6/30/21 (estimated), with analysts expecting EPS to be $1.68, indicative of a 105% change to the upside.\nAs mentioned above, in a memory chip 'bull' cycle, pricing power comes into play and the higher prices usually tend to translate into stock outperformance driven by improvements in EBTIDA. Last I checked 1 -2 months ago, EBITDA EST for FY 21 stood around $9 BN and FY 22 EST was $16 BN. As of 26 May 21, those numbers have increased substantially to $12,772 for FY 21 and $20,228 for FY 22. Today, EST have improved yet again in the last 5 days to $12,801 for FY 21 and $20,551 for FY 22. For context, these new EST represent a 48% and 61% YOY improvement.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe3bd33eeed49eebb87776a32f152e41\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"137\">Source: Tikr\nNext, we'll examine cashflow. This is paramount in a high volatility time period like today, plagued with inflation concerns, widening federal deficits, and an ever-increasing Fed balance sheet. When inflation is rampant or at least fears of it are, high growth stocks and tech stocks tend to get crushed as the market rushes to reset the absurd valuation multiples justified last year with QE and money printing running at full steam. Since the US10Y (Interest rates) affects the DCF models, valuations for certain companies will be revised downwards with less upside, with the exception of high cashflow companies. Thus, cashflow generating firms are all the more important and likely to be favored moving forward, and yet again Micron is one of them.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14d722c6a10e22e26e12a82be0a69481\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"125\">Source: Tikr\nAlthough Cashflow from Operations have been steadily decreasing since 2018 where it reached a high of $17,400, I mentioned above that 2018 represented the peak of the bull cycle then where firms were chasing higher margins. 2019 - 2020 then represented the slowdown phase brought about by the surplus and after hitting a 3-year low of $8,306 in Cashflow from Operations in FY 20 that ended last August, Micron is likely ready to see substantial improvements moving forward, and EST do paint a similar picture.\nAnalysts are expecting Cashflow from Operations to improve 49% YOY in FY 21 and a further 45% in FY 22. If that were to happen, that would bring cashflow close to $18 BN, which would be a record level cashflow generated from Operations for the firm. This also trickles down to FCF EST which represents the capital left for distribution after expenses related to operations have been taken care of and non-cash expenses have been reconciled.\nFCF EST come in at an outstanding $3,344 for FY 21 and is further expected to skyrocket to $8,148 in FY 21, from a meagre $83M last year. This pace of growth points to a close to 4000% YOY increase in FY 21 and a further 144% increase compounded on FY 21 numbers next year.\nCurrently, Micron trades at an EV of around $93 BN. That represents a FCF Yield of 3.60% based on this year's EST, and an impressive 11.4% based on next year's numbers. With that, it is clear that Micron's future earnings and cashflow will serve them well in a macro environment riddled with inflation fears. This massive boost to FCF may just give them the capital they need to seal the deal with Kioxia.\nRisks\nNo matter how sound an investment may be, every one of them carries risk, and so does choosing to invest in Micron. I know the article has been long thus far so I will try to keep it short to avoid boring my 1st time readers.\nWith the high BTE's that are inherently present in the DRAM and NAND markets brought about by the large economies of scale and sheer market share the dominant 3 possess, it is hard for competitors to enter the market. Nonetheless, there have been a few attempts by Chinese companies to penetrate the market and steal market share.\nGovernment subsidies as part of the \"Made in China 2025\" plan has helped propel Chinese firms to pose a threat in the DRAM and NAND markets. Fujian Jinhua (JHICC) is one of them. As a Chinese state-owned DRAM manufacturer based in China, the firm is competing with Micron in the DRAM market as part of China's desire to gain self-sufficiency in the semiconductor industry. This is understandable given that they are the largest consumers of DRAM in the Asian-Pacific market. However, Fujian is currently facing&nbsp;prosecution&nbsp;for allegedly stealing Micron's trade secrets and proprietary information. With such bad press and a bad reputation just 4 years after being founded, it is unlikely this firm will make it far enough to compete with the likes of Micron.\nChanging industry tailwinds may also prove to be a headwind in the case that demand growth for DRAM and NAND devices slowdown. Increased CAPEX spending by Samsung and SK Hynix or the addition of new capacity could also severely impact Micron's competitive position in the market and an all-out race to buildout and ramp up capacity to capture more sales may eventually culminate in the loss of pricing power and compressed margins once again. However, given the number of upcoming industries where more advanced technologies demand more memory to store data, this probability is small in the near term at the very least.\nOther potential risks may include further unexpected impacts to Micron's power plants such as&nbsp;outages and floods&nbsp;similar to what happened in Taiwan last year.\nValuation\nFinally, I will cover the valuations behind my upside optimism with Micron. The memory market has historically tended to trade based on the EV / EBITDA multiple. Because of this, I will use this as my prime valuation method but also use Forward PE's as secondary confirmation. The chart below represents the EV / EBITDA ratios that the dominant 3 have traded at since 2016.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc87a283f9420f33b1c7c52ad2f344\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\">A005930 refers to Samsung and A000660 refers to SK Hynix\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb98c272aeec7c9aefdab00d22955f64\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"367\">Source: Author's Compilations\nWe can see that Micron has been trading at a Mean EV / EBITDA multiple of 5.49 since 2016 and is trading at 9.64 levels as of last. For a conservative estimate, I will assume a ratio of 8, which is above the industry average of 7.49 in the current environment we are in today but below levels Micron is currently trading at. For context, the firm has always traded above its peers during the bull commodity cycle in 2010, 2014, and 2018 as seen in the chart below. It is important to note that since markets are future discounting mechanisms, they price in future margin expansions and pricing power. As a result, the dominant 3 usually trade at the higher multiples 1 year before the peak of the cycle.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4effc3d3acfdad8726c391bb0872880\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"229\">\nKeeping in mind that Micron has traded at multiples of 29 in 2009, 12 in 2014 and 10 in the previous cycle, 8 would be a fair multiple to assume. EBITDA EST for FY 22 next year stand at $20,551.32 as seen in the picture displayed earlier on. That would imply an EV of $164,410.56 in 22, an upside of 77% based on today's EV of $93 BN. If so, that should carry the stock forward to levels of $148 USD by next year.\nIf I were to assume a slightly aggressive and bullish multiple of 9 which is still below the peak of the prior cycle keeping in mind the law of diminishing returns, that would imply an upside of 99%, placing a price target of $167 USD for Micron.\nSince I'm a long-term investor and a conservative one, I'll stick with the $148 PT while my readers can keep the $167 potential price target in mind. I'm kidding, let's use the $148 PT which still offers a remarkable return relative to the S&amp;P 500.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e6626b3363e839c178999a3d2b48940\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"46\">Source: Tikr\nThe current estimates for Micron's future EPS are 5.56 for FY 21 and 10.93 for FY 22. Since we looked at FY 22 for the above valuation method, we shall maintain the same timeframe. Looking to the&nbsp;semiconductor industry, companies are trading at an average TTM P/E of 33.11 based on data from Q1.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea91b1b8e3f714b2441d27be59a6c538\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"64\">Source: CSI Market\nMicron is currently trading at a forward P/E FY 21 of 15.15 and a 7.7 based on FY 22 numbers. Assuming a fair multiple of 12, which is still below the high estimates of 15, that would give us a forward PT of $131.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6db0e4e02a94b2ed6ad9df84767cc9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"110\">Source: Seeking Alpha\nFinal Takeaways\nBased on conservative estimates, the 2 valuation methods displayed above give us a PT for Micron of $131 based on the Forward P/E method and $148 if we were to use EV / EBITDA multiples. This represents a 56-77% upside potential.\nIn this article we covered business model, market share, industry tailwinds with a heavy focus on TAMs, liquidity strength through current ratios, cashflow, risks, and of course valuations, all of which points to high probability of a bullish future for Micron Technology.\nI have noticed that there has been some&nbsp;concerns&nbsp;regarding price action lately and how the stock seems to be having trouble finding its footing given the pretty obvious bullish thesis, and they are valid in my opinion. For bearish near-term fundamentals, the above linked article would be a nice short read.\nI personally am a long-term investor and don't place much focus on the technicals and this helps keep me grounded. There may be a very good chance that Micron will continue to trend downwards before finding support and consolidate for its next leg up. As mentioned above, the stock seems to outperform 1 year before the peak of the memory cycle whenever that may be. Hence, the memory market is to be watched closely and investors must understand how changes in the dynamics of the market regarding production &amp; CAPEX levels can shift the tide quickly.\nAs a result, I don't see Micron to be a buy and hold forever as share price performance falls very much in line with its own commodity cycle, EBITDA, and Margin performance, which will eventually come to an end when surplus hits the deck. Yet, for the next 1-2 years, Micron remains to be one of the best plays on the current global chip shortage. If Micron continues to trend downwards in the near term, so be it, but fundamentals always catch up and based on future estimates, there's likely only one way for the share price moving forward and that isn't down.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron: A Strong Chip Shortage Play</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron: A Strong Chip Shortage Play\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-06 11:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433177-micron-a-strong-chip-shortage-play>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nMicron's four business units have sizable TAMs.\nBoth the DRAM and NAND industries have favourable outlooks.\nIndustry tailwinds point to pricing power and expanding margins.\nThe strong ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433177-micron-a-strong-chip-shortage-play\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433177-micron-a-strong-chip-shortage-play","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102972710","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicron's four business units have sizable TAMs.\nBoth the DRAM and NAND industries have favourable outlooks.\nIndustry tailwinds point to pricing power and expanding margins.\nThe strong financials of the company will serve them well in the current high-volatility environment.\n\nPhoto by vchal/iStock via Getty Images\nMicron Technology(NASDAQ:MU) is a severely undervalued semiconductor play with significant upside based upon conservative estimates, strong fundamentals, and favorable industry tailwinds. The current semiconductor shortage worldwide has put pressure upon semiconductor companies as they rush to ramp up production after an intentional slowdown and supply disruption amidst the pandemic. Forecasts and estimates regarding how fast demand was to bounce back came in entirely too conservative, and as a result the unprecedented surge in demand with a lagging supply has buyers of semiconductor chips such as auto manufacturers forced to slash production.\nSemiconductors of all kinds are the fundamental basic unit and brains of products ranging from audio devices, security cameras, automobiles, to even smart fridges. When it comes to a global shortage in a time as such, companies that are 'fabless' lose out and those that have their own manufacturing facilities and plants gain the upper hand as flexibility and production output remains in their ballpark. Today we examine how Micron is one of them, and despite its remarkable run up 54% since the start of 2020, there is considerable upside remaining given the size of the different total addressable markets(NYSE:TAM)that Micron is targeting.\nBusiness Model\nMicron is one of the top 3 memory chip makers in the world with a product portfolio featuring DRAM, NAND, NOR, and even 3D XPoint SSDs that they have since ceased production.Management guided that the decision comes amidst the findings that:\n\n There was insufficient market validation to justify the ongoing investments required to commercialize 3D XPoint at scale.\n\nAs promising as the 3D XPoint developments that Micron had that first started as a joint partnership with Intel in 2015 before parting ways in 2018 was, the impact moving forward will be minimal given that revenue from selling DRAM and NAND chips still accounts for the majority of Micron's Revenue, and 3D XPoint SSDs had yet to scale up.\nDRAM and NAND\nDRAM (Dynamic Random-Access Memory) devices are essentially a type of low latency memory product commonly used in PCs, servers, smartphones, and automobiles.\nIt is 'volatile' as content will be lost if the power supply is turned off. As such, DRAM devices store information that needs to be quickly accessed by the CPU / GPU. CPUs provide the raw computational power needed to run software programs and RAMs store the data and software code needed by the CPU to run in real-time.\nThe DRAM market operates as an oligopolistic one, with the 3 biggest competitors, Samsung (OTC:SSNLF), SK Hynix (OTC:HXSCL), and Micron dominating 94.1% of the market share. Samsung leads with 42% as of the latest fiscal quarter, SK Hynix second with 29% and Micron close behind with 23.1% of the market share.Amongst the 3, Micron is the only one operating in the U.S with Samsung & SK Hynix based in South Korea. This geographical advantage has come to serve Micron well in the automobile memory market as I will proceed to prove later, although it can be argued that this very same factor has placed the 2 Korean companies in a better position to service the largest consumer of DRAMs by region - China. In 2019, China accounted for 55.42% of global DRAM consumption by region.\nSource: Statista Global DRAM Market Share\nAs of the latest fiscal quarter 21, DRAM sales represented 71.26% of the company's total revenue. Although there may be the risk of concentration with a substantial portion of sales coming from 1 of the 3 main product offerings, DRAM chips have always represented the majority of the firm's sales. With favorable industry tailwinds, positive outlook regarding overall DRAM market dynamics, pricing power, and very likely higher margins as a result, this concentration of sales will likely also prove to be more of a boon than a bane for Micron in the current economic environment that we are in today.\nHistorically, Micron has also retained a firm hold of their share in the DRAM market and has made an effort to gradually increase it overtime since CY 2016. The inherently high BTE and economies of scale in an oligopolistic market coupled with necessary high CAPEX spending serves to grant the dominant 3 a firm hold in the DRAM market for years to come. The chart below shows Micron holding a steady 20 - 23% market share since CY 15, testament to their persistent presence as a top 3 market player.\nSource: Author's Compilations\nTAM: As DRAM products represent a majority of Micron's sales, it is imperative that the market they are operating in has a bright future and is on track to grow.According to MarketWatch,the global DRAM market revenue was valued at $62.1 BN in 2020 and is expected to grow to $91.1 BN by the end of 2026, representing a CAGR of 8%. With a sizable TAM in their leading product offering, the company should reap in the rewards of a growing market in terms of future revenue. As DRAM products also bring in higher margins at the end of the day based on CNBU and MBU (explained below) Operating Margins, this acts as a further catalyst for Micron.\nMicron also offers NAND products and though it represents a smaller chunk of Total Revenue relative to DRAMs, it still accounted for a meaningful 26.46% as of Q2 FY 21. NAND chips are used for the storage of information. Slower than DRAMs for accessing memory quickly, they are 'non-volatile' as the content can still be accessed should the power supply be cut off. These are commonly found in hard drives, smartphones and data centers.\nLikewise, the dominant 3 in the DRAM market also represent a significant portion of the NAND market albeit having more competitors. In the NAND flash market, Micron ranks 5th worldwide, behind the same industry leader - Samsung. As of Q1 21, Samsung dominated with 33.5% market share, Kioxia 18.7%, Western Digital (WDC) 14.4%, SK Hynix 12.3%, and Micron with 11.1%. However, in a market very similar to that of DRAM, acquisitions by the big power players can be expected to further solidify their presence and chew out competitors. As it is, SK Hynix has announced plans to acquire Intel's NAND Storage Unit (INTC), which represented a 7.5% market share in the NAND market beginning this year. Moving forward, this move is likely to bump the Korean company up to 2nd place with about 20% of the market, overtaking Kioxia. It is important to note however that this acquisition does not include Intel's Optane 3D XPoint portfolio that Intel will be retaining.\nSource: Statista Global NAND Flash Market Share\nDespite having more competition and less pricing power in this market, there too have been rumors that Micron is looking to make a move on Kioxia in a similar bid for $30 BN to enhance the competitiveness in its storage solutions in a rapidly growing NAND flash space. Western Digital also stands as a potential opposing bidder with both firms having merits as to why they should be the ideal one to acquire Kioxia. As of now, leverage seems to be in the hands of Micron as a firm with much more operating cashflow and a better balance sheet.\nSource: Author's Compilations\nSource: Author's Compilations\nThe $30 BN that Kioxia has been rumored to be valued at represents more than the entire Market Cap & EV of Western Digital. Besides, the firm already has more Total Debt relative to Micron, lower Operating Cashflows, and has a lower LTM Current Ratio of 2.01 compared to the 3.18 that Micron has that speaks directly to MU's near term liquidity strength. Surface level financial analysis goes to show that this would be a deal likely to go to Micron despite WDC having a joint venture with Kioxia. Furthermore, Micron has a rather long history of acquisitions having acquired Numonyx, a NOR manufacturer in 2010, Elpida Memory & Rexchip Electronics in 2013, Tidal Systems, Convey Computer, and Pico Computing in 2015, Inotera Memories in 2016… the list goes on. As you can see, Micron is quite the decorated acquiring firm.\nIf successful, Micron's NAND dominance has the potential to leap from its 5th placing, 11.1% of the market share to 29.8%, placing them as the 2nd biggest player, just 370 Bps below that of Samsung, and this is after accounting for SK Hynix's recent acquisition of Intel's NAND operations.\nMore Conviction\nFor more conviction in our thesis, we can look to the performance and different TAMs in Micron's business units breakdown.\nSource: Micron's Q2 Investor Presentation\nAs of FQ-2 21, CNBUs (Compute & Networking Business Unit) as always represented the largest portion of the firm's sales, taking up 42% of TR. This unit consists of memory products like DRAM & NAND sold to client, cloud servers, graphics, enterprise and networking markets as defined by the 10-Q.The 34% YOY improvement is promising but the really exciting growth came from MBUs and remains to be seen in EBUs.\nMBUs (Mobile Business Unit) represent the 2nd biggest revenue segment for Micron, accounting for 29% of TR, up an impressive 44% YOY. MBUs are memory and storage products for mobile devices, most notably smartphones. According to Mordor Intelligence,the global smartphone market will be valued at more than a trillion dollars by 2026, up from the $715 BN in 2020, a CAGR of 11.6%. Although therein lies the risk that the smartphone replacement cycle has been lengthening, the gradual shift to 5G overtime will force smartphone users to have to upgrade to a 5G capable one that can operate on the same frequency. Doing so will mean more DRAM and NAND content per unit that Micron will stand to benefit from.\nHowever, what's being left out by many is Micron's dominant position in the memory market for automobiles and the sizable TAM in this space moving forward. EBUs (Embedded Business Unit) represent the 2nd smallest revenue segment (15% of TR) of the 4 that Micron has. This essentially refers to embedded memory and storage chips sold to automotive, industrial, and consumer markets. Despite not being the main cash cow for Micron, EBUs still saw remarkable growth of 34% YOY in FQ-2. Micron may have been 3rd in the overall DRAM space and 5th in the overall NAND space, but they are the only memory chip provider with a substantial close to 50% market share in the space, according to Trendforce, a world leading market intelligence provider.\nSource: Micron's Automotive Division\nThis is where the geographical advantage for Micron comes into play. Micron effectively leverages their collaborative relationships with Tier-1 automobile suppliers based in Europe and the U.S to service them their comprehensive product portfolio of automotive memory solutions ranging from DDR2 - DDR 4 solutions to LPDDR 2 -5 solutions.The pure growth in this space can be seen from the fact that the average DRAM content of cars will continue to grow at a CAGR of more than 30% from 2021 - 2024.That is by far the biggest growth sector in any of Micron's Business Units moving forward and Micron's 30 years of leadership in the automobile memory space with no dominant position from Samsung or SK Hynix will come to serve them well in an era where we transition to EVs & AVs.\nAs it is, Tesla has already shown that new electric vehicles will be needing a lot more DRAM content and this trend will continue to play out as the world demands more cars with more technological capabilities. In its earlier Model S & X, Tesla reached at least 8GB of DRAM content within the vehicles. The newer Model 3, however, is further equipped with 14GB of DRAM content and the next generation of Tesla Models will have even more at 20GB.\nThe growing automobile memory space where Micron has maintained its underdog 30-year leadership will come to serve them well in the future as we transition to more sustainable and green versions of automobiles that demand more memory as well. Just remember that the more software a device has, the more memory is needed. Hence, we should be able to see positive growth in the EBU segment moving forward. However, one thing to note is that the EBU segment consists of sales to other industries that may be lagging and as a whole, the Operating Margins(NASDAQ:OM)from this segment of 15% stands pale in comparison to the OM in the CNBU segment of 26.9% and 25.6% in MBUs.\nIndustry Tailwinds\nMoving on to the industry outlook, Micron operates in a somewhat commoditized sector which experiences the extreme booms and busts of the demand cycle for PCs and Servers. Despite being a rather cyclical stock where the stock price is commanded largely by the DD and SS of computer chips and production capacity in general, it appears as if we are at the lows of the cycle and Micron remains to be one of the better plays for the ongoing global chip shortage as we begin the next leg up.\nFor a brief explanation on how the memory chip market moves overtime, let me take a stab at it. In essence, the overall supply of memory chips - most of which is produced by the dominant 3 - relative to demand, dictates the prices of chips, and therefore affects the financials of companies.\nWhen the memory market is in a 'bull' cycle as it was in 2010, 2014, 2018, and forecasted DD is set to outpace production capacities by firms, it results in a near-term shortage where the dominant market players (MU included) have the power to raise prices and maximize revenues. As COGS remain relatively constant regardless of the commodity cycle, this eventually translates to higher Gross Margins(NYSE:GM)for firms, a higher EBITDA which coincides nicely with stock price outperformance, and likely a higher bottom line. Although market players tend to agree on CAPEX spending and limit production capacities as a hedge from overproduction, firms blinded by the profits and higher margins tend to chase 'gains' and make the most of the cycle by capturing as much market share as possible.\nWhen firms do that and start to ramp up capacity with no regard for agreed limitations on production capacity and CAPEX spend, overproduction usually ensues that overwhelms the already inflated DD that is now dwindling, resulting in a surplus which brings just about the opposite consequence. Firms then lose pricing power and experience compressing margins in the years to follow, before the slowdown in capacity because of this very surplus eventually dips below future forecasted DD, thereby kickstarting the next leg up because of a shortage.\nLooking to history, when Micron has enjoyed higher EBITDA during those bull commodity cycles when there is a shortage in the industry, the stock price tends to outperform as well, in line with the higher pricing power and margins the firm experiences.\nSource: Author's Compilations\n2018 represented the peak in the previous memory market commodity cycle where the dominant industry players overbuilt capacity chasing margins, and as a result experienced the surplus and its consequences since. Because EBITDA has been falling since 2018 and GM, OM, and NPM have all cumulatively been decreasing YOY, so has the stock price. However, we are now facing another shortage in the DRAM market as production has slowed since the resulting slowdown in 2018. This coupled with an unprecedented surge in demand for chips, fueled by the emerging hyper-growth industries brought forward by the pandemic sets the stage for Micron's potential rally up. With a transition to 5G, Electric and Autonomous Vehicles, Artificial Intelligence, IOTs, Cloud Computing, Cobotic Manufacturing and Healthcare Telemedicine, the convergence of these advanced technologies mean more demand for advanced memory solutions, and Micron stands to win from it all.\nSource: Micron FQ-2 Investor Presentation\nThe industry outlook only serves to confirm the shifting tides in the memory market, with the DRAM market facing a severe shortage and optimistic long-term demand growth at a CAGR around 15-19%. A shortage may not seem like good news, but for a dominant market player like Micron that can raise prices and aren't reliant on outsourced production, it is. For further confirmation we can look to the upwardly revised estimates regarding the rise in DRAM prices in Q1 and Q2 of 2021 by Trendforce:\n\n Trendforce predicts that DRAM prices will rise 13-18% in the second quarter of 2021 & they already rose 3-8% in the first quarter of 2021.\n\nCall it inflation, call it whatever you want, but what I do know is that the higher prices in the DRAM market that has since manifested itself and has been forecasted to rise even higher will translate to higher profits for Micron. Market players are likely to make the most of this shortage as demand will not taper off given the fundamental need for memory chips against the backdrop of an era where advanced technologies are so rampant. Analysts too are forecasting improved revenues and earnings seen from the number of upward revisions and none downward in the last 3 months.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nIn the NAND market, although production output has been forecasted to be oversupplied due to increasing shipments, CY 21 demand is still expected to be around 30 - 35% and CAPEX cuts are likely to be implemented.\nFinancials\nQ1 Revenue delivered 12% growth YOY, GM a 359 Bps improvement to 30.90% and NPM a 488 Bps growth YOY to a healthy 15.54%. Q2 delivered even better numbers, with Revenues coming in at $6.2 BN despite management guidance of $5.8 BN. GM further improved to 32.93% and NPM increased 731 Bps YOY to end the quarter with NPM at 18.09%. All of the above are NON-GAAP numbers.\nSource: Micron FQ-2 Investor Presentation\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nManagement also has a history of beating estimates with 8 beats in the last 2 years, effectively delivering a 100% probability that it will beat its own guidance moving forward, although not a guarantee as with anything else in business and life. Yet, forward guidance for FQ-3 is expecting a 30% improvement in Revenues YOY and GM to further rise to 41.5%, compared to the 33.17% they did last year and 32.93% just last quarter. As for DEPS estimates, the $1.62 estimate given by management implies a remarkable 98% YOY increase. Analyst consensus estimates come in even higher than that for the upcoming FQ-3 earnings to be reported on 6/30/21 (estimated), with analysts expecting EPS to be $1.68, indicative of a 105% change to the upside.\nAs mentioned above, in a memory chip 'bull' cycle, pricing power comes into play and the higher prices usually tend to translate into stock outperformance driven by improvements in EBTIDA. Last I checked 1 -2 months ago, EBITDA EST for FY 21 stood around $9 BN and FY 22 EST was $16 BN. As of 26 May 21, those numbers have increased substantially to $12,772 for FY 21 and $20,228 for FY 22. Today, EST have improved yet again in the last 5 days to $12,801 for FY 21 and $20,551 for FY 22. For context, these new EST represent a 48% and 61% YOY improvement.\nSource: Tikr\nNext, we'll examine cashflow. This is paramount in a high volatility time period like today, plagued with inflation concerns, widening federal deficits, and an ever-increasing Fed balance sheet. When inflation is rampant or at least fears of it are, high growth stocks and tech stocks tend to get crushed as the market rushes to reset the absurd valuation multiples justified last year with QE and money printing running at full steam. Since the US10Y (Interest rates) affects the DCF models, valuations for certain companies will be revised downwards with less upside, with the exception of high cashflow companies. Thus, cashflow generating firms are all the more important and likely to be favored moving forward, and yet again Micron is one of them.\nSource: Tikr\nAlthough Cashflow from Operations have been steadily decreasing since 2018 where it reached a high of $17,400, I mentioned above that 2018 represented the peak of the bull cycle then where firms were chasing higher margins. 2019 - 2020 then represented the slowdown phase brought about by the surplus and after hitting a 3-year low of $8,306 in Cashflow from Operations in FY 20 that ended last August, Micron is likely ready to see substantial improvements moving forward, and EST do paint a similar picture.\nAnalysts are expecting Cashflow from Operations to improve 49% YOY in FY 21 and a further 45% in FY 22. If that were to happen, that would bring cashflow close to $18 BN, which would be a record level cashflow generated from Operations for the firm. This also trickles down to FCF EST which represents the capital left for distribution after expenses related to operations have been taken care of and non-cash expenses have been reconciled.\nFCF EST come in at an outstanding $3,344 for FY 21 and is further expected to skyrocket to $8,148 in FY 21, from a meagre $83M last year. This pace of growth points to a close to 4000% YOY increase in FY 21 and a further 144% increase compounded on FY 21 numbers next year.\nCurrently, Micron trades at an EV of around $93 BN. That represents a FCF Yield of 3.60% based on this year's EST, and an impressive 11.4% based on next year's numbers. With that, it is clear that Micron's future earnings and cashflow will serve them well in a macro environment riddled with inflation fears. This massive boost to FCF may just give them the capital they need to seal the deal with Kioxia.\nRisks\nNo matter how sound an investment may be, every one of them carries risk, and so does choosing to invest in Micron. I know the article has been long thus far so I will try to keep it short to avoid boring my 1st time readers.\nWith the high BTE's that are inherently present in the DRAM and NAND markets brought about by the large economies of scale and sheer market share the dominant 3 possess, it is hard for competitors to enter the market. Nonetheless, there have been a few attempts by Chinese companies to penetrate the market and steal market share.\nGovernment subsidies as part of the \"Made in China 2025\" plan has helped propel Chinese firms to pose a threat in the DRAM and NAND markets. Fujian Jinhua (JHICC) is one of them. As a Chinese state-owned DRAM manufacturer based in China, the firm is competing with Micron in the DRAM market as part of China's desire to gain self-sufficiency in the semiconductor industry. This is understandable given that they are the largest consumers of DRAM in the Asian-Pacific market. However, Fujian is currently facing prosecution for allegedly stealing Micron's trade secrets and proprietary information. With such bad press and a bad reputation just 4 years after being founded, it is unlikely this firm will make it far enough to compete with the likes of Micron.\nChanging industry tailwinds may also prove to be a headwind in the case that demand growth for DRAM and NAND devices slowdown. Increased CAPEX spending by Samsung and SK Hynix or the addition of new capacity could also severely impact Micron's competitive position in the market and an all-out race to buildout and ramp up capacity to capture more sales may eventually culminate in the loss of pricing power and compressed margins once again. However, given the number of upcoming industries where more advanced technologies demand more memory to store data, this probability is small in the near term at the very least.\nOther potential risks may include further unexpected impacts to Micron's power plants such as outages and floods similar to what happened in Taiwan last year.\nValuation\nFinally, I will cover the valuations behind my upside optimism with Micron. The memory market has historically tended to trade based on the EV / EBITDA multiple. Because of this, I will use this as my prime valuation method but also use Forward PE's as secondary confirmation. The chart below represents the EV / EBITDA ratios that the dominant 3 have traded at since 2016.\nA005930 refers to Samsung and A000660 refers to SK Hynix\nSource: Author's Compilations\nWe can see that Micron has been trading at a Mean EV / EBITDA multiple of 5.49 since 2016 and is trading at 9.64 levels as of last. For a conservative estimate, I will assume a ratio of 8, which is above the industry average of 7.49 in the current environment we are in today but below levels Micron is currently trading at. For context, the firm has always traded above its peers during the bull commodity cycle in 2010, 2014, and 2018 as seen in the chart below. It is important to note that since markets are future discounting mechanisms, they price in future margin expansions and pricing power. As a result, the dominant 3 usually trade at the higher multiples 1 year before the peak of the cycle.\n\nKeeping in mind that Micron has traded at multiples of 29 in 2009, 12 in 2014 and 10 in the previous cycle, 8 would be a fair multiple to assume. EBITDA EST for FY 22 next year stand at $20,551.32 as seen in the picture displayed earlier on. That would imply an EV of $164,410.56 in 22, an upside of 77% based on today's EV of $93 BN. If so, that should carry the stock forward to levels of $148 USD by next year.\nIf I were to assume a slightly aggressive and bullish multiple of 9 which is still below the peak of the prior cycle keeping in mind the law of diminishing returns, that would imply an upside of 99%, placing a price target of $167 USD for Micron.\nSince I'm a long-term investor and a conservative one, I'll stick with the $148 PT while my readers can keep the $167 potential price target in mind. I'm kidding, let's use the $148 PT which still offers a remarkable return relative to the S&P 500.\nSource: Tikr\nThe current estimates for Micron's future EPS are 5.56 for FY 21 and 10.93 for FY 22. Since we looked at FY 22 for the above valuation method, we shall maintain the same timeframe. Looking to the semiconductor industry, companies are trading at an average TTM P/E of 33.11 based on data from Q1.\nSource: CSI Market\nMicron is currently trading at a forward P/E FY 21 of 15.15 and a 7.7 based on FY 22 numbers. Assuming a fair multiple of 12, which is still below the high estimates of 15, that would give us a forward PT of $131.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nFinal Takeaways\nBased on conservative estimates, the 2 valuation methods displayed above give us a PT for Micron of $131 based on the Forward P/E method and $148 if we were to use EV / EBITDA multiples. This represents a 56-77% upside potential.\nIn this article we covered business model, market share, industry tailwinds with a heavy focus on TAMs, liquidity strength through current ratios, cashflow, risks, and of course valuations, all of which points to high probability of a bullish future for Micron Technology.\nI have noticed that there has been some concerns regarding price action lately and how the stock seems to be having trouble finding its footing given the pretty obvious bullish thesis, and they are valid in my opinion. For bearish near-term fundamentals, the above linked article would be a nice short read.\nI personally am a long-term investor and don't place much focus on the technicals and this helps keep me grounded. There may be a very good chance that Micron will continue to trend downwards before finding support and consolidate for its next leg up. As mentioned above, the stock seems to outperform 1 year before the peak of the memory cycle whenever that may be. Hence, the memory market is to be watched closely and investors must understand how changes in the dynamics of the market regarding production & CAPEX levels can shift the tide quickly.\nAs a result, I don't see Micron to be a buy and hold forever as share price performance falls very much in line with its own commodity cycle, EBITDA, and Margin performance, which will eventually come to an end when surplus hits the deck. Yet, for the next 1-2 years, Micron remains to be one of the best plays on the current global chip shortage. If Micron continues to trend downwards in the near term, so be it, but fundamentals always catch up and based on future estimates, there's likely only one way for the share price moving forward and that isn't down.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":943,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Micron: A Strong Chip Shortage Play

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