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2021-06-22

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What Investors Can Learn From the History of Inflation<blockquote>投资者可以从通胀历史中学到什么</blockquote>

Inflation is on the rise, hitting some of the highest levels seen since the early 1980s. Back then,

What Investors Can Learn From the History of Inflation<blockquote>投资者可以从通胀历史中学到什么</blockquote>

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Back then, ","content":"Inflation is on the rise, hitting some of the highest levels seen since the early 1980s. Back then, the Federal Reserve’s Paul Volcker killed off rampant price rises, hitting the economy hard initially, but ushering in decades of repeated rallies in stocks and bonds.<blockquote>通货膨胀正在上升，达到20世纪80年代初以来的最高水平。当时，美联储的保罗·沃尔克扼杀了物价的疯狂上涨，最初对经济造成了沉重打击，但却迎来了股票和债券数十年的反复上涨。</blockquote> If today’s post Covid-19 pandemic inflation proves sticky, will it be like the years before Volcker, or could it be more like the happier growth that followed World War II? These periods hold lessons about how financial markets might perform.<blockquote>如果今天的后Covid-19大流行通胀被证明是粘性的，它会像沃尔克之前的几年一样，还是更像二战后更快乐的增长？这些时期为金融市场的表现提供了教训。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177e181236d406cfb6867135e123e647\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> After World War II, stocks did well despite bouts of inflation. But that only lasted until the mid-1960s. Returns for stocks and Treasurys then struggled until after the 1970s inflation was crushed.<blockquote>第二次世界大战后，尽管经历了一轮又一轮的通货膨胀，股市仍表现良好。但这只持续到20世纪60年代中期。股票和国债的回报一直举步维艰，直到20世纪70年代通胀被压垮。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f556cbd944781f6e9f8861fd1307ed\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> One reason why stocks did well in the 1950s was that money flowed into the market as pension funds and other institutions bought equities for the first time, according to Ian Harnett, chief investment strategist at Absolute Strategy Research. That helped push down the so-called equity-risk premium, which measures the extra returns stock investors demand over government bonds for the risk of losing their money.<blockquote>Absolute Strategy Research首席投资策略师伊恩·哈尼特(Ian Harnett)表示，20世纪50年代股市表现良好的原因之一是，随着养老基金和其他机构首次购买股票，资金流入市场。这有助于压低所谓的股票风险溢价，该溢价衡量的是股票投资者因损失资金的风险而要求的相对于政府债券的额外回报。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1fa93e07ae8e10df683b24487fe7102\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> In the 1970s, the risk premium rose again and stocks underperformed when inflation took hold. The clues to why this happened are elsewhere in the economic backdrop.<blockquote>20世纪70年代，风险溢价再次上升，当通货膨胀发生时，股票表现不佳。为什么会发生这种情况的线索在经济背景的其他地方。</blockquote> After the war, there were bouts of inflation, but the real economy grew strongly enough to keep up with price rises.Resources used for the war effort were put back into peacetime production. Then from the mid-1960s, a gap between real growth and the influence of inflation opened up.<blockquote>战后出现了几轮通货膨胀，但实体经济增长强劲，足以跟上物价上涨的步伐.用于战争的资源被重新投入到和平时期的生产中。然后从20世纪60年代中期开始，实际增长和通货膨胀的影响之间出现了差距。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13efc1b5bab65fd78a4b1b3cfab31a20\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Richard Sylla, professor emeritus of economics at NYU Stern, who wrote a history of interest rates, characterizes the postwar inflation as prices catching up with reality after wartime price controls were lifted.<blockquote>纽约大学斯特恩分校经济学名誉教授理查德·西拉（Richard Sylla）撰写了《利率史》，他将战后通胀描述为战时价格管制解除后价格赶上现实。</blockquote> Things changed in the 1960s. Heavy government spending on the Vietnam War and President Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society programs met low interest rates. Money supply grew strongly and what Mr. Sylla calls the Great Inflation began.<blockquote>20世纪60年代情况发生了变化。政府在越南战争上的巨额支出和林登·约翰逊总统的伟大社会计划导致了低利率。货币供应强劲增长，西拉·评级先生的大通货膨胀开始了。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/049f33fc222d7260e35aee86c0a1f43c\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> The economy overheated. First, the output gap, which measures the economy’s capacity to produce enough stuff in relation to the demand to consume it, went negative as demand outstripped supply.<blockquote>经济过热。首先，产出缺口（衡量经济生产足够商品相对于消费需求的能力）随着需求超过供应而变为负值。</blockquote> Then, in the late 1960s excess demand turned into a long trend toward increasing oversupply. As inflation rose, the labor force grew and people demanded higher wages.<blockquote>然后，在20世纪60年代末，过剩的需求变成了供过于求的长期趋势。随着通货膨胀的上升，劳动力增长，人们要求更高的工资。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2efcdabd4bc53c9c4d15af67b30ec4b\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"753\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> At the same time, the Federal Reserve became more influenced by politics: Arthur Burns chair of the Federal Reserve worked closely with Richard Nixon to help get him re-elected, Mr. Sylla said.<blockquote>与此同时，美联储变得更受政治影响：Sylla先生说，美联储主席Arthur Burns与Richard Nixon密切合作，帮助他连任。</blockquote> The dollar’s value became volatile after President Nixon suspended the dollar’s convertibility into gold in 1971. This sounded the death knell for the Bretton Woods agreement, which had tied international currencies to each other.<blockquote>1971年尼克松总统暂停美元兑换黄金后，美元的价值变得不稳定。这为布雷顿森林协议敲响了丧钟，该协议将国际货币相互挂钩。</blockquote> A more volatile dollar fed into higher import prices, which made inflation more volatile and uncertain. Uncertainty is bad for investors and that is one reason why the equity risk premium rose again—and stock market returns suffered.<blockquote>美元波动加剧导致进口价格上涨，从而使通胀更加波动和不确定。不确定性对投资者不利，这也是股票风险溢价再次上升以及股市回报受到影响的原因之一。</blockquote> Then came the first oil-price shock, when many Arab countries blocked exports to the U.S. in protest at America’s backing of Israel.<blockquote>然后是第一次油价冲击，当时许多阿拉伯国家阻止了对美国的出口，以抗议美国对以色列的支持。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e24170234a713529c1e8dafe7f75b6d0\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Where are we today? We have a low equity risk premium, leaving stocks without much of a cushion against uncertainty.<blockquote>我们今天在哪里？我们的股票风险溢价较低，使得股票没有太多的不确定性缓冲。</blockquote> The government is determined to stimulate the economy and cut unemployment. But unlike the mid-1960s,the output gap hasn’t yet been closed. The Fed’s role is key. It has promised to let the economy run hot in its quest to hit full employment.<blockquote>政府决心刺激经济，降低失业率。但与20世纪60年代中期不同的是，产出缺口尚未缩小。美联储的作用是关键。它承诺让经济过热，以实现充分就业。</blockquote> Overheating seems an uncertain prospect, especially if the recent rapid growth in the money supply quickly corrects to a much lower level as it did after the war.<blockquote>过热似乎是一个不确定的前景，特别是如果最近货币供应的快速增长迅速修正到战后低得多的水平。</blockquote> One place investors have turned in the past are precious metals like gold. In the 1970s, the yellow metal provided very strong inflation adjusted returns. It was a non-factor in the postwar period, when gold trading was banned.<blockquote>投资者过去转向的一个领域是黄金等贵金属。在20世纪70年代，这种黄色金属提供了非常强劲的通胀调整后回报。在战后时期，当黄金交易被禁止时，这不是一个因素。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bfebaee0355d857a22ed1b414ab12ad\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Within the stock market, companies in cyclical industries, things like chemicals or mining companies, or airlines, performed better during the late 1970s and early 1980s than those in defensive industries, such as utilities or consumer staples like soap, food and tobacco.&nbsp;Since then, cyclical stocks have underperformed, if technology companies are excluded. Avoiding technology companies, or at least those that rely on low interest rates to make their promised future earnings look more valuable today, might be the key.<blockquote>在股票市场中，周期性行业的公司，如化工、矿业公司或航空公司，在20世纪70年代末和80年代初的表现优于防御性行业的公司，如公用事业或肥皂、食品和烟草等消费品。自那以后，如果将科技公司排除在外，周期性股票就表现不佳。避开科技公司，或者至少是那些依靠低利率使其承诺的未来收益在今天看起来更有价值的公司，可能是关键。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61cde91b59c249f4d9f22c6f068f17b2\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"751\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Investors Can Learn From the History of Inflation<blockquote>投资者可以从通胀历史中学到什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Investors Can Learn From the History of Inflation<blockquote>投资者可以从通胀历史中学到什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nWSJ2021-06-22 14:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nInflation is on the rise, hitting some of the highest levels seen since the early 1980s. Back then, the Federal Reserve’s Paul Volcker killed off rampant price rises, hitting the economy hard initially, but ushering in decades of repeated rallies in stocks and bonds.<blockquote>通货膨胀正在上升，达到20世纪80年代初以来的最高水平。当时，美联储的保罗·沃尔克扼杀了物价的疯狂上涨，最初对经济造成了沉重打击，但却迎来了股票和债券数十年的反复上涨。</blockquote> If today’s post Covid-19 pandemic inflation proves sticky, will it be like the years before Volcker, or could it be more like the happier growth that followed World War II? These periods hold lessons about how financial markets might perform.<blockquote>如果今天的后Covid-19大流行通胀被证明是粘性的，它会像沃尔克之前的几年一样，还是更像二战后更快乐的增长？这些时期为金融市场的表现提供了教训。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177e181236d406cfb6867135e123e647\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> After World War II, stocks did well despite bouts of inflation. But that only lasted until the mid-1960s. Returns for stocks and Treasurys then struggled until after the 1970s inflation was crushed.<blockquote>第二次世界大战后，尽管经历了一轮又一轮的通货膨胀，股市仍表现良好。但这只持续到20世纪60年代中期。股票和国债的回报一直举步维艰，直到20世纪70年代通胀被压垮。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f556cbd944781f6e9f8861fd1307ed\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> One reason why stocks did well in the 1950s was that money flowed into the market as pension funds and other institutions bought equities for the first time, according to Ian Harnett, chief investment strategist at Absolute Strategy Research. That helped push down the so-called equity-risk premium, which measures the extra returns stock investors demand over government bonds for the risk of losing their money.<blockquote>Absolute Strategy Research首席投资策略师伊恩·哈尼特(Ian Harnett)表示，20世纪50年代股市表现良好的原因之一是，随着养老基金和其他机构首次购买股票，资金流入市场。这有助于压低所谓的股票风险溢价，该溢价衡量的是股票投资者因损失资金的风险而要求的相对于政府债券的额外回报。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1fa93e07ae8e10df683b24487fe7102\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> In the 1970s, the risk premium rose again and stocks underperformed when inflation took hold. The clues to why this happened are elsewhere in the economic backdrop.<blockquote>20世纪70年代，风险溢价再次上升，当通货膨胀发生时，股票表现不佳。为什么会发生这种情况的线索在经济背景的其他地方。</blockquote> After the war, there were bouts of inflation, but the real economy grew strongly enough to keep up with price rises.Resources used for the war effort were put back into peacetime production. Then from the mid-1960s, a gap between real growth and the influence of inflation opened up.<blockquote>战后出现了几轮通货膨胀，但实体经济增长强劲，足以跟上物价上涨的步伐.用于战争的资源被重新投入到和平时期的生产中。然后从20世纪60年代中期开始，实际增长和通货膨胀的影响之间出现了差距。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13efc1b5bab65fd78a4b1b3cfab31a20\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Richard Sylla, professor emeritus of economics at NYU Stern, who wrote a history of interest rates, characterizes the postwar inflation as prices catching up with reality after wartime price controls were lifted.<blockquote>纽约大学斯特恩分校经济学名誉教授理查德·西拉（Richard Sylla）撰写了《利率史》，他将战后通胀描述为战时价格管制解除后价格赶上现实。</blockquote> Things changed in the 1960s. Heavy government spending on the Vietnam War and President Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society programs met low interest rates. Money supply grew strongly and what Mr. Sylla calls the Great Inflation began.<blockquote>20世纪60年代情况发生了变化。政府在越南战争上的巨额支出和林登·约翰逊总统的伟大社会计划导致了低利率。货币供应强劲增长，西拉·评级先生的大通货膨胀开始了。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/049f33fc222d7260e35aee86c0a1f43c\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> The economy overheated. First, the output gap, which measures the economy’s capacity to produce enough stuff in relation to the demand to consume it, went negative as demand outstripped supply.<blockquote>经济过热。首先，产出缺口（衡量经济生产足够商品相对于消费需求的能力）随着需求超过供应而变为负值。</blockquote> Then, in the late 1960s excess demand turned into a long trend toward increasing oversupply. As inflation rose, the labor force grew and people demanded higher wages.<blockquote>然后，在20世纪60年代末，过剩的需求变成了供过于求的长期趋势。随着通货膨胀的上升，劳动力增长，人们要求更高的工资。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2efcdabd4bc53c9c4d15af67b30ec4b\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"753\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> At the same time, the Federal Reserve became more influenced by politics: Arthur Burns chair of the Federal Reserve worked closely with Richard Nixon to help get him re-elected, Mr. Sylla said.<blockquote>与此同时，美联储变得更受政治影响：Sylla先生说，美联储主席Arthur Burns与Richard Nixon密切合作，帮助他连任。</blockquote> The dollar’s value became volatile after President Nixon suspended the dollar’s convertibility into gold in 1971. This sounded the death knell for the Bretton Woods agreement, which had tied international currencies to each other.<blockquote>1971年尼克松总统暂停美元兑换黄金后，美元的价值变得不稳定。这为布雷顿森林协议敲响了丧钟，该协议将国际货币相互挂钩。</blockquote> A more volatile dollar fed into higher import prices, which made inflation more volatile and uncertain. Uncertainty is bad for investors and that is one reason why the equity risk premium rose again—and stock market returns suffered.<blockquote>美元波动加剧导致进口价格上涨，从而使通胀更加波动和不确定。不确定性对投资者不利，这也是股票风险溢价再次上升以及股市回报受到影响的原因之一。</blockquote> Then came the first oil-price shock, when many Arab countries blocked exports to the U.S. in protest at America’s backing of Israel.<blockquote>然后是第一次油价冲击，当时许多阿拉伯国家阻止了对美国的出口，以抗议美国对以色列的支持。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e24170234a713529c1e8dafe7f75b6d0\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Where are we today? We have a low equity risk premium, leaving stocks without much of a cushion against uncertainty.<blockquote>我们今天在哪里？我们的股票风险溢价较低，使得股票没有太多的不确定性缓冲。</blockquote> The government is determined to stimulate the economy and cut unemployment. But unlike the mid-1960s,the output gap hasn’t yet been closed. The Fed’s role is key. It has promised to let the economy run hot in its quest to hit full employment.<blockquote>政府决心刺激经济，降低失业率。但与20世纪60年代中期不同的是，产出缺口尚未缩小。美联储的作用是关键。它承诺让经济过热，以实现充分就业。</blockquote> Overheating seems an uncertain prospect, especially if the recent rapid growth in the money supply quickly corrects to a much lower level as it did after the war.<blockquote>过热似乎是一个不确定的前景，特别是如果最近货币供应的快速增长迅速修正到战后低得多的水平。</blockquote> One place investors have turned in the past are precious metals like gold. In the 1970s, the yellow metal provided very strong inflation adjusted returns. It was a non-factor in the postwar period, when gold trading was banned.<blockquote>投资者过去转向的一个领域是黄金等贵金属。在20世纪70年代，这种黄色金属提供了非常强劲的通胀调整后回报。在战后时期，当黄金交易被禁止时，这不是一个因素。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bfebaee0355d857a22ed1b414ab12ad\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Within the stock market, companies in cyclical industries, things like chemicals or mining companies, or airlines, performed better during the late 1970s and early 1980s than those in defensive industries, such as utilities or consumer staples like soap, food and tobacco.&nbsp;Since then, cyclical stocks have underperformed, if technology companies are excluded. Avoiding technology companies, or at least those that rely on low interest rates to make their promised future earnings look more valuable today, might be the key.<blockquote>在股票市场中，周期性行业的公司，如化工、矿业公司或航空公司，在20世纪70年代末和80年代初的表现优于防御性行业的公司，如公用事业或肥皂、食品和烟草等消费品。自那以后，如果将科技公司排除在外，周期性股票就表现不佳。避开科技公司，或者至少是那些依靠低利率使其承诺的未来收益在今天看起来更有价值的公司，可能是关键。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61cde91b59c249f4d9f22c6f068f17b2\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"751\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-investors-can-learn-from-the-history-of-inflation-11624263340?mod=markets_lead_pos5\">WSJ</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-investors-can-learn-from-the-history-of-inflation-11624263340?mod=markets_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112997031","content_text":"Inflation is on the rise, hitting some of the highest levels seen since the early 1980s. Back then, the Federal Reserve’s Paul Volcker killed off rampant price rises, hitting the economy hard initially, but ushering in decades of repeated rallies in stocks and bonds.\nIf today’s post Covid-19 pandemic inflation proves sticky, will it be like the years before Volcker, or could it be more like the happier growth that followed World War II? These periods hold lessons about how financial markets might perform.\n\nAfter World War II, stocks did well despite bouts of inflation. But that only lasted until the mid-1960s. Returns for stocks and Treasurys then struggled until after the 1970s inflation was crushed.\n\nOne reason why stocks did well in the 1950s was that money flowed into the market as pension funds and other institutions bought equities for the first time, according to Ian Harnett, chief investment strategist at Absolute Strategy Research. That helped push down the so-called equity-risk premium, which measures the extra returns stock investors demand over government bonds for the risk of losing their money.\n\nIn the 1970s, the risk premium rose again and stocks underperformed when inflation took hold. The clues to why this happened are elsewhere in the economic backdrop.\nAfter the war, there were bouts of inflation, but the real economy grew strongly enough to keep up with price rises.Resources used for the war effort were put back into peacetime production. Then from the mid-1960s, a gap between real growth and the influence of inflation opened up.\n\nRichard Sylla, professor emeritus of economics at NYU Stern, who wrote a history of interest rates, characterizes the postwar inflation as prices catching up with reality after wartime price controls were lifted.\nThings changed in the 1960s. Heavy government spending on the Vietnam War and President Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society programs met low interest rates. Money supply grew strongly and what Mr. Sylla calls the Great Inflation began.\n\nThe economy overheated. First, the output gap, which measures the economy’s capacity to produce enough stuff in relation to the demand to consume it, went negative as demand outstripped supply.\nThen, in the late 1960s excess demand turned into a long trend toward increasing oversupply. As inflation rose, the labor force grew and people demanded higher wages.\n\nAt the same time, the Federal Reserve became more influenced by politics: Arthur Burns chair of the Federal Reserve worked closely with Richard Nixon to help get him re-elected, Mr. Sylla said.\nThe dollar’s value became volatile after President Nixon suspended the dollar’s convertibility into gold in 1971. This sounded the death knell for the Bretton Woods agreement, which had tied international currencies to each other.\nA more volatile dollar fed into higher import prices, which made inflation more volatile and uncertain. Uncertainty is bad for investors and that is one reason why the equity risk premium rose again—and stock market returns suffered.\nThen came the first oil-price shock, when many Arab countries blocked exports to the U.S. in protest at America’s backing of Israel.\n\nWhere are we today? We have a low equity risk premium, leaving stocks without much of a cushion against uncertainty.\nThe government is determined to stimulate the economy and cut unemployment. But unlike the mid-1960s,the output gap hasn’t yet been closed. The Fed’s role is key. It has promised to let the economy run hot in its quest to hit full employment.\nOverheating seems an uncertain prospect, especially if the recent rapid growth in the money supply quickly corrects to a much lower level as it did after the war.\nOne place investors have turned in the past are precious metals like gold. In the 1970s, the yellow metal provided very strong inflation adjusted returns. It was a non-factor in the postwar period, when gold trading was banned.\n\nWithin the stock market, companies in cyclical industries, things like chemicals or mining companies, or airlines, performed better during the late 1970s and early 1980s than those in defensive industries, such as utilities or consumer staples like soap, food and tobacco. Since then, cyclical stocks have underperformed, if technology companies are excluded. Avoiding technology companies, or at least those that rely on low interest rates to make their promised future earnings look more valuable today, might be the key.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1104,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}