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RyanMa
2021-05-25

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

Roblox深度报告：Metaverse第一股，元宇宙引领者

核心观点Roblox:游戏UGC平台的先驱者和领头人：全球最大的互动社区之一及大型多人游戏创作平台。通过游戏将全世界连接在一起，让任何人都能探索全球社区开发者建立的数千万个沉浸式 3D游戏，提供一个想

Roblox深度报告：Metaverse第一股，元宇宙引领者

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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Ebitda为2289，增长幅度63.2%，利润率为24.4%。中性预期下，Roblox每小时广告收入$0.05，为社交媒体平均40%，对应<b>44亿广告收入，17.7亿广告Ebitda</b>；算上广告第二增长曲线后，25E Ebitda为3175，增长幅度126.3%，利润率为33.9%。</p><p>●<b>以CPM验证广告空间</b>：保守预期下，Roblox CPM平均收费为$4.24，为社交媒体平均60% （考虑到使用时长和用户黏性，我们认为真实CPM收费会高于社交媒体平均），对应<b>21.7亿广告收入，8.7亿广告Ebitda</b>；算上广告第二增长曲线后，25E Ebitda为22.7，增长幅度61.9%，利润率为24.2%。</p><p><b><i>风险提示：内容生态构筑风险；未来UGC游戏平台面临竞争风险；测算DAU或ABPDAU增长不及预期- 1）变现能力提升不及预期2）用户扩张不及预期；第二增长曲线不及预期– 1）中国市场发展缓慢2）广告商业化进度缓慢</i></b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa2c8053a9ecb678f3a58c338dc50b9\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1752f87b813ecdc11e16caede086abfb\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff2e3bca2bf7ef8f115bf1c93452047\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a014dbd744e7db4af8375a141182bb9f\" tg-width=\"1021\" 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRoblox深度报告：Metaverse第一股，元宇宙引领者\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-25 21:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/MOwtFbDJfT4yEVjyVQcvSQ><strong> 风研海外</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>核心观点Roblox:游戏UGC平台的先驱者和领头人：全球最大的互动社区之一及大型多人游戏创作平台。通过游戏将全世界连接在一起，让任何人都能探索全球社区开发者建立的数千万个沉浸式 3D游戏，提供一个想象、创造以及与朋友同乐的空间。高活跃度+高沉浸时长+稳定付费率提升：Roblox如何做到？UGC内容生态+社交属性构筑双飞轮效应成长逻辑：●DAU增长，1）核心用户5-24岁渗透率持续增长；2）欧美...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/MOwtFbDJfT4yEVjyVQcvSQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140fc6c1463a498e65d516de4ff7fe68","relate_stocks":{"RBLX":"Roblox Corporation"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/MOwtFbDJfT4yEVjyVQcvSQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199482586","content_text":"核心观点Roblox:游戏UGC平台的先驱者和领头人：全球最大的互动社区之一及大型多人游戏创作平台。通过游戏将全世界连接在一起，让任何人都能探索全球社区开发者建立的数千万个沉浸式 3D游戏，提供一个想象、创造以及与朋友同乐的空间。高活跃度+高沉浸时长+稳定付费率提升：Roblox如何做到？UGC内容生态+社交属性构筑双飞轮效应成长逻辑：●DAU增长，1）核心用户5-24岁渗透率持续增长；2）欧美以外的市场渗透率持续提升；ARPU增长，1）时间黏性+优质内容生态扩张驱动单用户收益提升；2）平均年龄提升提高付费水平●DAU/流水预测：保守预期下，25E DAU 8910万，同比增速15.3%，20-25E年CAGR 22.4%；25E 流水71.6亿美金，同比增长17.6%，20-25E年CAGR 30.6%；25E ABPDAU 80.3美金，同比增长2%。第二增长曲线：●1）中国市场开发，25E有2.5亿-7.4亿Ebitda空间。25E在核心用户TAM渗透率达到5%，对应1200万DAU，和$80.3 ABPDAU，对应9.7亿美金收入。●2）广告空间，保守预期下，Roblox每小时广告收入$0.03，为社交媒体平均的1/5，对应22亿广告收入，8.9亿广告Ebitda；算上广告第二增长曲线后，25E Ebitda为2289，增长幅度63.2%，利润率为24.4%。中性预期下，Roblox每小时广告收入$0.05，为社交媒体平均40%，对应44亿广告收入，17.7亿广告Ebitda；算上广告第二增长曲线后，25E Ebitda为3175，增长幅度126.3%，利润率为33.9%。●以CPM验证广告空间：保守预期下，Roblox CPM平均收费为$4.24，为社交媒体平均60% （考虑到使用时长和用户黏性，我们认为真实CPM收费会高于社交媒体平均），对应21.7亿广告收入，8.7亿广告Ebitda；算上广告第二增长曲线后，25E Ebitda为22.7，增长幅度61.9%，利润率为24.2%。风险提示：内容生态构筑风险；未来UGC游戏平台面临竞争风险；测算DAU或ABPDAU增长不及预期- 1）变现能力提升不及预期2）用户扩张不及预期；第二增长曲线不及预期– 1）中国市场发展缓慢2）广告商业化进度缓慢","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RBLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1217,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}