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2021-07-13

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Anything But Transitory: Consumers Expect Inflation In One Year To Soar To 4.8%<blockquote>绝不是暂时的：消费者预计一年内通胀率将飙升至4.8%</blockquote>

While central banks, tenured economists and the financial media are doingeverythingin their propagan

Anything But Transitory: Consumers Expect Inflation In One Year To Soar To 4.8%<blockquote>绝不是暂时的：消费者预计一年内通胀率将飙升至4.8%</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":142861584,"tweetId":"142861584","gmtCreate":1626141404548,"gmtModify":1631890787547,"author":{"id":3575074532947939,"idStr":"3575074532947939","authorId":3575074532947939,"authorIdStr":"3575074532947939","name":"Jeric87","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Like!</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Like!</body></html>","text":"Like!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142861584","repostId":1161134258,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1161134258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626137252,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161134258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-13 08:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Anything But Transitory: Consumers Expect Inflation In One Year To Soar To 4.8%<blockquote>绝不是暂时的：消费者预计一年内通胀率将飙升至4.8%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161134258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"While central banks, tenured economists and the financial media are doingeverythingin their propagan","content":"While central banks, tenured economists and the financial media are doingeverythingin their propaganda power to convince Americans that the current phase of hyperinflation is merely transitory (although it now appears that even the Fed is getting some doubts writing in its semi-annual monetary policy report that inflation is \"more lasting but likely still temporary\" until proven otherwise, of course), the shocking reality on the ground is that the Fed has effectively lost control over near-term inflation expectations, as the NY Fed's own survey of consumer expectations reveals.<blockquote>当央行、终身经济学家和财经媒体在做一切他们的宣传力量让美国人相信当前阶段的恶性通货膨胀只是暂时的（尽管现在看来，就连美联储也开始怀疑通货膨胀是“更持久，但可能仍然是暂时的“当然，除非事实证明并非如此），令人震惊的现实是，正如纽约联储自己的消费者预期调查所显示的那样，美联储实际上已经失去了对近期通胀预期的控制。</blockquote> According to the latest, June, installment of this closely watched survey, consumer inflation expectations for one year ahead, jumped by the most on record,surging by 0.8% in one month, from 4.0% in May to an all-time high for this series of 4.8% in June.<blockquote>根据这项备受关注的调查的最新六月份，消费者对未来一年的通胀预期出现了有记录以来的最大增幅，一个月内飙升0.8%，从5月份的4.0%升至6月份该系列4.8%的历史新高。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/687424aa9936131fc5fd4fb975eb16c9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"225\"><blockquote></blockquote> As the NY Fed details, \"the increase in the short-term measure was driven mostly by respondents who have some college education. Our measures of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) reached new series’ highs at both horizons.\"<blockquote>正如纽约联储详细介绍的那样，“短期指标的增长主要是由受过大学教育的受访者推动的。我们衡量受访者之间的分歧（通胀预期第75个百分点和第25个百分点之间的差异）达到了新系列的高点在两个地平线上。”</blockquote> There was some hope that the US won't end up as Weimar in the Fed's median inflation expectations for the three-year horizon which, unlike the 1-Year spot, were little changed from the prior month at 3.6%. Still, arguing that inflation at 3.6% in 3 years is acceptable to the Fed's formerly dual mandate (which has since grown toSocial Justice, Race, Gender Issues, Climate Change And Inequality), is at best laughable.<blockquote>有人希望美国不会像美联储三年期通胀预期中的魏玛一样结束，与1年期通胀预期中值不同，与上月3.6%相比变化不大。尽管如此，认为3年内3.6%的通胀率对于美联储以前的双重使命（此后已发展到社会正义、种族、性别问题、气候变化和不平等）来说是可以接受的，充其量是可笑的。</blockquote> However, in a testament to just how sticky most Americans expect inflation to be, the most valuable (and widespread) middle-class asset - housing - is expected to rise at near-record levelswith the median year-ahead home price change expectations at 6.2% in June, substantially higher than its 12-months trailing average of 3.7%,if well below the current double-digit pace of home price increase which has pushed the average home price to a new all-time high. According to the Fed, \"Median year-ahead home price growth uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding year-ahead home price growth outcomes—increased and reached a new series high.\"<blockquote>然而，大多数美国人预计通胀会有多棘手，中产阶级最有价值（也是最普遍）的资产——住房——预计将以接近创纪录的水平上涨，这证明了通胀的粘性6月份未来一年房价变化预期中值为6.2%，远高于3.7%的12个月平均水平，如果远低于目前两位数的房价上涨速度，这已将平均房价推至历史新高。美联储表示，“未来一年房价增长不确定性中位数——或对未来一年房价增长结果表达的不确定性——有所增加，并达到系列新高。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/730babaea29df064660a7f25212d1a82\" tg-width=\"721\" tg-height=\"439\"><blockquote></blockquote> Looking at a breakdown of inflation expectations by commodity, the median one-year ahead expected change in the cost of college education increased to 7.0% from 6.1% in May, its highest reading since April 2019. In contrast, the median expected changes in the price of food and gasoline decreased to 7.1% and 9.2%, respectively, from 8.0% and 9.8% in May. The median expected change in the cost of medical care and rent remained unchanged at 9.4% and 9.7%; elsewhere medical costs are expected to rise 9.36%; and rent prices will rise 9.66%.<blockquote>从大宗商品通胀预期细分来看，未来一年大学教育成本预期变化中位数从5月份的6.1%升至7.0%，为2019年4月以来的最高读数。相比之下，食品和汽油价格预期变化中值分别从5月份的8.0%和9.8%降至7.1%和9.2%。医疗及租金成本预期变动中位数维持不变，为9.4%及9.7%；其他地方的医疗费用预计将上涨9.36%；租金价格将上涨9.66%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/003d8db78cc2804186ff076cccec3077\" tg-width=\"723\" tg-height=\"435\"><blockquote></blockquote> Some other notable highlights from the survey: 9.59% (vs 9.69% in the prior month), expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months; the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months fell from 12.6% to 10.9%, hitting new series low which is to be expected in a country with record numbers of job openings.<blockquote>调查中的其他一些值得注意的亮点是：9.59%（上个月为9.69%），预计在未来三个月内无法支付最低债务；未来12个月内失业的平均感知概率从12.6%降至10.9%，创下一系列新低，这在一个职位空缺数量创纪录的国家是意料之中的。</blockquote> Some more details from the Fed's survey:<blockquote>美联储调查的更多细节：</blockquote> Labor Market<blockquote>劳动力市场</blockquote> <ul> <li>Median one-year ahead expected earnings growth increased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6% in June, its highest reading since the start of the pandemic (February 2020). The increase was driven by respondents who have at least some college education.</li> <li>Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now— decreased to 30.7% from 31.9%, a new series’ low.</li> <li>The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased from 12.6% to 10.9%, reaching a new series’ low. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also decreased to 18.6% from 18.7%, staying close to its trailing 12-month average of 18.1%.</li> <li>The mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months (if one’s current job were lost) increased by 0.2 percentage point to 54.2%, its highest reading since February 2020. The increase was driven by those with at least some college education. The series remains substantially below its 2019 average of 59.8%.</li> </ul> Household Finance<blockquote><ul><li>6月份，未来一年预期盈利增长中位数上升0.1个百分点至2.6%，为疫情开始（2020年2月）以来的最高水平。这一增长是由至少受过大学教育的受访者推动的。</li><li>平均失业预期（即一年后美国失业率上升的平均概率）从31.9%降至30.7%，创新系列新低。</li><li>未来12个月内失业的平均感知概率从12.6%下降到10.9%，达到新低。未来12个月内自愿离职的平均概率也从18.7%下降至18.6%，接近过去12个月18.1%的平均水平。</li><li>未来三个月内找到工作的平均感知概率（如果当前工作失业）增加了0.2个百分点，达到54.2%，为2020年2月以来的最高读数。这一增长是由那些至少受过大学教育的人推动的。该系列仍远低于2019年59.8%的平均水平。</li></ul>家庭金融</blockquote> <ul> <li>The median expected year-ahead household income growth increased to 3.0% in June from 2.8%. The increase was broad-based across age, income, and education groups.</li> <li>Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%, reaching a new series’ high. The increase was most pronounced for respondents with some college education.</li> <li>Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago slightly improved. In contrast, expectations for future credit availability deteriorated, with more respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead.</li> <li>The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased to 9.6% from 9.7%. The series remains below its 2020 average of 11.4%.</li> <li>The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes (at current income level) declined slightly to 4.6% from 4.7%.</li> <li>The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher 12 months from now increased by 0.5 percentage point to 29.9%. This is the highest reading of the series since May 2019. The increase was driven by those with an annual household income over $100,000.</li> <li>Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago deteriorated, with more respondents reporting to be worse off compared to a year ago. In contrast, respondents were slightly more optimistic about their households’ financial situations in the year ahead.</li> <li>The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now decreased by 0.5 percentage point to 40.2%, staying below its 2020 average of 44.3%.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>6月份家庭收入增长预期中值从2.8%升至3.0%。这一增长在年龄、收入和教育群体中具有广泛的基础。</li><li>家庭支出增长预期中值上升0.2个百分点至5.2%，创系列新高。对于受过大学教育的受访者来说，这种增长最为明显。</li><li>与一年前相比，对信贷获取的看法略有改善。相比之下，对未来信贷可用性的预期恶化，更多受访者预计未来一年获得信贷将更加困难。</li><li>未来三个月未偿还最低债务的平均感知概率从9.7%下降至9.6%。该系列仍低于2020年11.4%的平均水平。</li><li>对未来一年税收变化（当前收入水平）的预期中值从4.7%小幅下降至4.6%。</li><li>12个月后储蓄账户平均利率上升的平均感知概率增加了0.5个百分点，达到29.9%。这是该系列自2019年5月以来的最高读数。这一增长是由家庭年收入超过10万美元的人推动的。</li><li>与一年前相比，对家庭当前财务状况的看法有所恶化，更多受访者表示情况比一年前更糟。相比之下，受访者对未来一年家庭财务状况略显乐观。</li><li>12个月后美国股价上涨的平均感知概率下降了0.5个百分点，至40.2%，低于2020年平均水平44.3%。</li></ul></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Anything But Transitory: Consumers Expect Inflation In One Year To Soar To 4.8%<blockquote>绝不是暂时的：消费者预计一年内通胀率将飙升至4.8%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnything But Transitory: Consumers Expect Inflation In One Year To Soar To 4.8%<blockquote>绝不是暂时的：消费者预计一年内通胀率将飙升至4.8%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-13 08:47\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWhile central banks, tenured economists and the financial media are doingeverythingin their propaganda power to convince Americans that the current phase of hyperinflation is merely transitory (although it now appears that even the Fed is getting some doubts writing in its semi-annual monetary policy report that inflation is \"more lasting but likely still temporary\" until proven otherwise, of course), the shocking reality on the ground is that the Fed has effectively lost control over near-term inflation expectations, as the NY Fed's own survey of consumer expectations reveals.<blockquote>当央行、终身经济学家和财经媒体在做一切他们的宣传力量让美国人相信当前阶段的恶性通货膨胀只是暂时的（尽管现在看来，就连美联储也开始怀疑通货膨胀是“更持久，但可能仍然是暂时的“当然，除非事实证明并非如此），令人震惊的现实是，正如纽约联储自己的消费者预期调查所显示的那样，美联储实际上已经失去了对近期通胀预期的控制。</blockquote> According to the latest, June, installment of this closely watched survey, consumer inflation expectations for one year ahead, jumped by the most on record,surging by 0.8% in one month, from 4.0% in May to an all-time high for this series of 4.8% in June.<blockquote>根据这项备受关注的调查的最新六月份，消费者对未来一年的通胀预期出现了有记录以来的最大增幅，一个月内飙升0.8%，从5月份的4.0%升至6月份该系列4.8%的历史新高。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/687424aa9936131fc5fd4fb975eb16c9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"225\"><blockquote></blockquote> As the NY Fed details, \"the increase in the short-term measure was driven mostly by respondents who have some college education. Our measures of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) reached new series’ highs at both horizons.\"<blockquote>正如纽约联储详细介绍的那样，“短期指标的增长主要是由受过大学教育的受访者推动的。我们衡量受访者之间的分歧（通胀预期第75个百分点和第25个百分点之间的差异）达到了新系列的高点在两个地平线上。”</blockquote> There was some hope that the US won't end up as Weimar in the Fed's median inflation expectations for the three-year horizon which, unlike the 1-Year spot, were little changed from the prior month at 3.6%. Still, arguing that inflation at 3.6% in 3 years is acceptable to the Fed's formerly dual mandate (which has since grown toSocial Justice, Race, Gender Issues, Climate Change And Inequality), is at best laughable.<blockquote>有人希望美国不会像美联储三年期通胀预期中的魏玛一样结束，与1年期通胀预期中值不同，与上月3.6%相比变化不大。尽管如此，认为3年内3.6%的通胀率对于美联储以前的双重使命（此后已发展到社会正义、种族、性别问题、气候变化和不平等）来说是可以接受的，充其量是可笑的。</blockquote> However, in a testament to just how sticky most Americans expect inflation to be, the most valuable (and widespread) middle-class asset - housing - is expected to rise at near-record levelswith the median year-ahead home price change expectations at 6.2% in June, substantially higher than its 12-months trailing average of 3.7%,if well below the current double-digit pace of home price increase which has pushed the average home price to a new all-time high. According to the Fed, \"Median year-ahead home price growth uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding year-ahead home price growth outcomes—increased and reached a new series high.\"<blockquote>然而，大多数美国人预计通胀会有多棘手，中产阶级最有价值（也是最普遍）的资产——住房——预计将以接近创纪录的水平上涨，这证明了通胀的粘性6月份未来一年房价变化预期中值为6.2%，远高于3.7%的12个月平均水平，如果远低于目前两位数的房价上涨速度，这已将平均房价推至历史新高。美联储表示，“未来一年房价增长不确定性中位数——或对未来一年房价增长结果表达的不确定性——有所增加，并达到系列新高。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/730babaea29df064660a7f25212d1a82\" tg-width=\"721\" tg-height=\"439\"><blockquote></blockquote> Looking at a breakdown of inflation expectations by commodity, the median one-year ahead expected change in the cost of college education increased to 7.0% from 6.1% in May, its highest reading since April 2019. In contrast, the median expected changes in the price of food and gasoline decreased to 7.1% and 9.2%, respectively, from 8.0% and 9.8% in May. The median expected change in the cost of medical care and rent remained unchanged at 9.4% and 9.7%; elsewhere medical costs are expected to rise 9.36%; and rent prices will rise 9.66%.<blockquote>从大宗商品通胀预期细分来看，未来一年大学教育成本预期变化中位数从5月份的6.1%升至7.0%，为2019年4月以来的最高读数。相比之下，食品和汽油价格预期变化中值分别从5月份的8.0%和9.8%降至7.1%和9.2%。医疗及租金成本预期变动中位数维持不变，为9.4%及9.7%；其他地方的医疗费用预计将上涨9.36%；租金价格将上涨9.66%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/003d8db78cc2804186ff076cccec3077\" tg-width=\"723\" tg-height=\"435\"><blockquote></blockquote> Some other notable highlights from the survey: 9.59% (vs 9.69% in the prior month), expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months; the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months fell from 12.6% to 10.9%, hitting new series low which is to be expected in a country with record numbers of job openings.<blockquote>调查中的其他一些值得注意的亮点是：9.59%（上个月为9.69%），预计在未来三个月内无法支付最低债务；未来12个月内失业的平均感知概率从12.6%降至10.9%，创下一系列新低，这在一个职位空缺数量创纪录的国家是意料之中的。</blockquote> Some more details from the Fed's survey:<blockquote>美联储调查的更多细节：</blockquote> Labor Market<blockquote>劳动力市场</blockquote> <ul> <li>Median one-year ahead expected earnings growth increased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6% in June, its highest reading since the start of the pandemic (February 2020). The increase was driven by respondents who have at least some college education.</li> <li>Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now— decreased to 30.7% from 31.9%, a new series’ low.</li> <li>The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased from 12.6% to 10.9%, reaching a new series’ low. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also decreased to 18.6% from 18.7%, staying close to its trailing 12-month average of 18.1%.</li> <li>The mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months (if one’s current job were lost) increased by 0.2 percentage point to 54.2%, its highest reading since February 2020. The increase was driven by those with at least some college education. The series remains substantially below its 2019 average of 59.8%.</li> </ul> Household Finance<blockquote><ul><li>6月份，未来一年预期盈利增长中位数上升0.1个百分点至2.6%，为疫情开始（2020年2月）以来的最高水平。这一增长是由至少受过大学教育的受访者推动的。</li><li>平均失业预期（即一年后美国失业率上升的平均概率）从31.9%降至30.7%，创新系列新低。</li><li>未来12个月内失业的平均感知概率从12.6%下降到10.9%，达到新低。未来12个月内自愿离职的平均概率也从18.7%下降至18.6%，接近过去12个月18.1%的平均水平。</li><li>未来三个月内找到工作的平均感知概率（如果当前工作失业）增加了0.2个百分点，达到54.2%，为2020年2月以来的最高读数。这一增长是由那些至少受过大学教育的人推动的。该系列仍远低于2019年59.8%的平均水平。</li></ul>家庭金融</blockquote> <ul> <li>The median expected year-ahead household income growth increased to 3.0% in June from 2.8%. The increase was broad-based across age, income, and education groups.</li> <li>Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%, reaching a new series’ high. The increase was most pronounced for respondents with some college education.</li> <li>Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago slightly improved. In contrast, expectations for future credit availability deteriorated, with more respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead.</li> <li>The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased to 9.6% from 9.7%. The series remains below its 2020 average of 11.4%.</li> <li>The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes (at current income level) declined slightly to 4.6% from 4.7%.</li> <li>The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher 12 months from now increased by 0.5 percentage point to 29.9%. This is the highest reading of the series since May 2019. The increase was driven by those with an annual household income over $100,000.</li> <li>Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago deteriorated, with more respondents reporting to be worse off compared to a year ago. In contrast, respondents were slightly more optimistic about their households’ financial situations in the year ahead.</li> <li>The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now decreased by 0.5 percentage point to 40.2%, staying below its 2020 average of 44.3%.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>6月份家庭收入增长预期中值从2.8%升至3.0%。这一增长在年龄、收入和教育群体中具有广泛的基础。</li><li>家庭支出增长预期中值上升0.2个百分点至5.2%，创系列新高。对于受过大学教育的受访者来说，这种增长最为明显。</li><li>与一年前相比，对信贷获取的看法略有改善。相比之下，对未来信贷可用性的预期恶化，更多受访者预计未来一年获得信贷将更加困难。</li><li>未来三个月未偿还最低债务的平均感知概率从9.7%下降至9.6%。该系列仍低于2020年11.4%的平均水平。</li><li>对未来一年税收变化（当前收入水平）的预期中值从4.7%小幅下降至4.6%。</li><li>12个月后储蓄账户平均利率上升的平均感知概率增加了0.5个百分点，达到29.9%。这是该系列自2019年5月以来的最高读数。这一增长是由家庭年收入超过10万美元的人推动的。</li><li>与一年前相比，对家庭当前财务状况的看法有所恶化，更多受访者表示情况比一年前更糟。相比之下，受访者对未来一年家庭财务状况略显乐观。</li><li>12个月后美国股价上涨的平均感知概率下降了0.5个百分点，至40.2%，低于2020年平均水平44.3%。</li></ul></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/anything-transitory-consumers-expect-inflation-one-year-soar-record-48\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/anything-transitory-consumers-expect-inflation-one-year-soar-record-48","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161134258","content_text":"While central banks, tenured economists and the financial media are doingeverythingin their propaganda power to convince Americans that the current phase of hyperinflation is merely transitory (although it now appears that even the Fed is getting some doubts writing in its semi-annual monetary policy report that inflation is \"more lasting but likely still temporary\" until proven otherwise, of course), the shocking reality on the ground is that the Fed has effectively lost control over near-term inflation expectations, as the NY Fed's own survey of consumer expectations reveals.\nAccording to the latest, June, installment of this closely watched survey, consumer inflation expectations for one year ahead, jumped by the most on record,surging by 0.8% in one month, from 4.0% in May to an all-time high for this series of 4.8% in June.\n\nAs the NY Fed details, \"the increase in the short-term measure was driven mostly by respondents who have some college education. Our measures of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) reached new series’ highs at both horizons.\"\nThere was some hope that the US won't end up as Weimar in the Fed's median inflation expectations for the three-year horizon which, unlike the 1-Year spot, were little changed from the prior month at 3.6%. Still, arguing that inflation at 3.6% in 3 years is acceptable to the Fed's formerly dual mandate (which has since grown toSocial Justice, Race, Gender Issues, Climate Change And Inequality), is at best laughable.\nHowever, in a testament to just how sticky most Americans expect inflation to be, the most valuable (and widespread) middle-class asset - housing - is expected to rise at near-record levelswith the median year-ahead home price change expectations at 6.2% in June, substantially higher than its 12-months trailing average of 3.7%,if well below the current double-digit pace of home price increase which has pushed the average home price to a new all-time high. According to the Fed, \"Median year-ahead home price growth uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding year-ahead home price growth outcomes—increased and reached a new series high.\"\n\nLooking at a breakdown of inflation expectations by commodity, the median one-year ahead expected change in the cost of college education increased to 7.0% from 6.1% in May, its highest reading since April 2019. In contrast, the median expected changes in the price of food and gasoline decreased to 7.1% and 9.2%, respectively, from 8.0% and 9.8% in May. The median expected change in the cost of medical care and rent remained unchanged at 9.4% and 9.7%; elsewhere medical costs are expected to rise 9.36%; and rent prices will rise 9.66%.\n\nSome other notable highlights from the survey: 9.59% (vs 9.69% in the prior month), expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months; the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months fell from 12.6% to 10.9%, hitting new series low which is to be expected in a country with record numbers of job openings.\nSome more details from the Fed's survey:\nLabor Market\n\nMedian one-year ahead expected earnings growth increased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6% in June, its highest reading since the start of the pandemic (February 2020). The increase was driven by respondents who have at least some college education.\nMean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now— decreased to 30.7% from 31.9%, a new series’ low.\nThe mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased from 12.6% to 10.9%, reaching a new series’ low. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also decreased to 18.6% from 18.7%, staying close to its trailing 12-month average of 18.1%.\nThe mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months (if one’s current job were lost) increased by 0.2 percentage point to 54.2%, its highest reading since February 2020. The increase was driven by those with at least some college education. The series remains substantially below its 2019 average of 59.8%.\n\nHousehold Finance\n\nThe median expected year-ahead household income growth increased to 3.0% in June from 2.8%. The increase was broad-based across age, income, and education groups.\nMedian household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%, reaching a new series’ high. The increase was most pronounced for respondents with some college education.\nPerceptions of credit access compared to a year ago slightly improved. In contrast, expectations for future credit availability deteriorated, with more respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead.\nThe average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased to 9.6% from 9.7%. The series remains below its 2020 average of 11.4%.\nThe median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes (at current income level) declined slightly to 4.6% from 4.7%.\nThe mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher 12 months from now increased by 0.5 percentage point to 29.9%. This is the highest reading of the series since May 2019. The increase was driven by those with an annual household income over $100,000.\nPerceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago deteriorated, with more respondents reporting to be worse off compared to a year ago. In contrast, respondents were slightly more optimistic about their households’ financial situations in the year ahead.\nThe mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now decreased by 0.5 percentage point to 40.2%, staying below its 2020 average of 44.3%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2259,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}