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2021-06-28

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Booking Holdings Poised To Emerge Strongly From Pandemic

Summary Booking Holdings has massive growth potential as vaccine rollouts continue and travel restr

Booking Holdings Poised To Emerge Strongly From Pandemic

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":150867844,"tweetId":"150867844","gmtCreate":1624893320688,"gmtModify":1631889909716,"author":{"id":3574561301552961,"idStr":"3574561301552961","authorId":3574561301552961,"authorIdStr":"3574561301552961","name":"iShallProspr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed154a2657baa0912568681d6caf43e4","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Is this where I leave 1 comment ?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Is this where I leave 1 comment ?</body></html>","text":"Is this where I leave 1 comment ?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150867844","repostId":1171400086,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171400086","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624892835,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171400086?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 23:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Booking Holdings Poised To Emerge Strongly From Pandemic","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171400086","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBooking Holdings has massive growth potential as vaccine rollouts continue and travel restr","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Booking Holdings has massive growth potential as vaccine rollouts continue and travel restrictions are lowered.</li>\n <li>Their profitability will improve in the coming years as they shift more focus toward Merchant Revenues.</li>\n <li>They are the dominant leader in the travel industry in terms of market capitalization. They will lead the resurgence in travel.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b353272bc77a8652f501a49ab3d082d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">tupungato/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nPoised for a comeback\nBooking Holdings(NASDAQ:BKNG), the world leader in online travel services, is in prime position to emerge from the pandemic in spectacular fashion and spearhead the worldwide resurgence in travel. They will do this by growing their core business, especially within the U.S. where they currently trail in market share, and by shifting their business model to focus more heavily on collecting merchant revenues, which are far more profitable than the agency revenues that make up most of their current sales figure.\nGrowth Strategies emerging from pandemic\nBooking Holdings is aiming at growth strategies through two main avenues; expanding and solidifying a uniform payment platform, and capturing more U.S. market share. Both of their growth strategies are centered around their move towards an increasingly merchant focused business model.\nIntegrating a uniform payment platform can help Booking power the frictionless global marketplace that they seek to create. Booking is trying to alleviate the problem of foreign exchange complications and users not being able to pay how they want for travel. The current payment platform is catching on, but slowly. Only 22% of gross bookings in 2020 were processed on Booking's integrated platform. However, this is up from 15% in 2019, and the figure is expected to grow in the coming years. Implementing this platform will enable merchandising capabilities that Booking hasn't had access to historically. Most importantly, it is foundational for the \"connected trip\" strategy; a seamless offering of multiple elements of travel, and Booking's long-term strategic goal.\nCapturing a greater share of the U.S. market is an imperative growth strategy for Booking for numerous reasons. Firstly, Booking trails competitors Expedia and Airbnb in terms of U.S. market share. While the U.S. hotel market is not quite as profitable for travel fare aggregators like Booking and Expedia when compared to the European market, mainly due to the dominance of hotel chains in the U.S., the potential for Booking to tap into the U.S. alternative accommodation market is promising. And this is what leadership is trying to do. In order to penetrate the market Booking will focus on product improvements, raising consumer awareness of this type of inventory, and supply acquisition. They are planning to work with professional property management partners to grow and acquire a supply of single-home properties. Additionally, as a result of the covid-19 pandemic and associated regulations there has been a shift in favor of domestic travel and alternative accommodations, a signal for Booking to enter into the U.S. space where they currently lack market share. To paint a picture of the growth potential; 41% of Airbnb's revenue comes from its U.S. segment. That 41% is larger than the entire European market where Booking currently has a strong foothold. This implies thatBooking has an opportunity to double their alternative accommodation businessby penetrating into the U.S.\nThe growing trend of homeowners leasing out their unused living spaces is staggering, and it is what pumps Airbnb's valuation up so high to its current Enterprise Value of $114B. Even though Booking records 3x Airbnb's pre-pandemic revenues, their Enterprise Value is 15% less. Many indicators point to Airbnb being overvalued, but one thing is clear; the market for alternative accommodations is growing at immense rates worldwide, and Booking is well poised to dig their teeth into a large chunk of that market share.\nShift from Agency to Merchant Revenues\nThe most exciting thing on Booking's horizon, however, is their focus on becoming more profitable by shifting revenues to weigh more heavily on the merchant segment. Booking has scaled up to be the world leader in market share, and now they are prepared to capitalize on their huge size and reach. Below, I will break down the differences between the two significant revenue items that Booking recognizes, Agency Revenues and Merchant Revenues. Figure 3 shows 2019 revenue breakdown.\n<ul>\n <li>Agency Revenues make up the bulk of Booking's total revenue figure. These revenues are derived from transactions in which Booking does not facilitate payments for services, and consist almost entirely of travel reservation commissions invoiced to service providers after travel is completed. This type of revenue model is what helped Booking scale up to attain the market share they have today. However, since they don't facilitate the payments, they are limited on fees and other benefits like increased float.</li>\n <li>Merchant Revenues make up the second largest chunk of Booking's total revenue figure, but are growing at a faster rate. These revenues are derived from transactions in which Booking facilitates the payment of services, generally at the time of booking. From a cash flow perspective, since Booking gets money upfront and doesn't relinquish it to the service provider until the time of stay, they are able to hold onto this cash for months, mostly for free, and can use it to invest and grow the business. These revenues are also more lucrative because Booking charges fees on top of already higher commissions.</li>\n <li>Advertising &amp; Other Revenues make up the smallest portion of Booking's total revenue figure. These revenues are largely derived from referrals, subscription fees, and advertising placements.</li>\n</ul>\nUnder CEO Glenn Fogel's leadership, Booking Holdings istaking strides to grow their merchant revenues at rapid rates. The merchant business model is far more lucrative for Booking on a commission basis, and it also improves their cash flows, allowing them to invest more heavily into future projects. The agency model is great for cheap growth; it is what helped Booking reach the dominant market position that it has today. But the time to capitalize on their massive scale has come, as leadership takes them in a more value-productive direction. Increasing merchant revenues will make them more profitable, improving their already above-average EBITDA margin. Figure 4 shows Booking's growing focus on merchant revenues since Glenn Fogel became CEO in 2017.\nKeep in mind, Booking's largest competitor, Expedia, has a closer split between Agency and Merchant revenues than they do. Despite this, Expedia only has an average 15% EBITDA margin across the last twelve years, compared to Booking's 37%, which will only go up as Booking narrows the field between Agency and Merchant revenues (industry benchmark is 30%). This demonstrates how much more efficient Booking is at turning sales into profits, and highlights the fact that they consistently outperform their competitors in doing so. Moving forward, they will only widen this gap.\nThere&nbsp;are&nbsp;Risks\nReliance on an industry bounce back is one. Booking has a heavy reliance on the overall travel industry getting back on its feet as soon as possible. If government regulations and social distancing sentiments continue to stifle the travel industry at large, it will take Booking longer to return to their pre-pandemic scale.\nCompetitors are another. Booking faces competition from all angles. Expedia is their main direct competitor, and currently holds a majority U.S. market share. If Booking fails to expand more prominently into the U.S. and stagnates growth in other global markets, their overall industry market share dominance could be threatened. Airbnb is spearheading the rise of alternative accommodations, a market that Booking is also competing in. Google could continue its dive into successful reservation meta-search applications such as Google Flights. Their continued expansion into the space could take significant market share away from Booking. Lastly, many hotel chains, especially in the U.S., are developing and facilitating their own direct channels for travelers. If they can create enough consumer awareness and drive enough traffic to their own flagship sites, there would be no need for a majority of Bookings services.\nCOVID-19 Effects on Finances cannot be omitted. The adverse impacts of the covid-19 pandemic could distress liquidity, credit rating, and foreign exchange rates. The ensuing volatility in global markets has made access to capital less certain and more costly. Booking currently has $2B available under its revolving credit facility, representing around 15% of their total liquidity, with a $4.5B minimum liquidity covenant. A downgrade in credit rating from their current A- status could likewise harm access to capital. Lastly, because a large majority of Bookings business comes from outside the U.S. they are exposed to swings in currency rates, which are amplified by pandemic-driven market uncertainty.\nBut an industry bounce-back is inevitable\nIt is no secret that Booking, along with the entire travel industry, took heavy hits as a result of the covid-19 pandemic. 2020 brought the biggest disruption to modern global travel the world has ever seen. But there is light at the end of the tunnel. Travel restrictions within the domestic U.S. are already largely lifted, but many international limits are still in place. Keep in mind that Booking gets most of their business from outside the U.S. Once international limits are relaxed, Booking is sure to reap the benefits. Meanwhile, experts are aiming at areturn to somewhat normalcyby the end of 2021 and into 2022, as vaccine rollouts rapidly become more widespread and pent up demand for travel is unleashed. To paint a picture, in March 2021 U.S. travel spending tallied $69.5B, significantly higher than the previous four months, but still 31% below March 2019 levels.\nA quick look at key Financials\nThe pandemic drained Bookings revenues by a staggering 55% from their 2019 highs. However, despite months of the worst travel stagnation in history, Booking still collected industry leading revenues, a testament to management's relentless efforts to keep the ship afloat. Also, revenue is expected to rebound nearly 40% in 2021 as vaccine rollouts and regulation leniency spur a resurgence in travel demand (per Factset.com). I don't think I'm alone in believing that covid fears are dissipating and the world will get back on its feet sooner rather than later. Figure 7 shows revenue growth and segment breakdown since 2016.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd73c67b97083d7b253d5013d7cfe91a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nA quick DCF valuation\nI believe Booking Holdings is undervalued at their current share price. My valuation is based on a discounted free cash flow model that projects ten years into the future and arrives at a terminal value into perpetuity. Other metrics used in the model are the company's WAAC of 6.5% (as of June 19, 2021), total debt of $12.54B, and total cash of $11.08B. These numbers are courtesy of FactSet.com The speed at which Booking can return to pre-pandemic levels of revenue is the main driver of each case.\nBase Case\nIs meant to reflect the current market share price of around $2,242.61. This case sees modest 2021 revenue growth as travel begins to make a comeback. FCF's will settle slightly under historical averages. Revenue will reach pre-covid levels by around 2026. Booking will then grow revenues at 2% and collect FCF's at 30% into perpetuity.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38880160c2b34ac87bdbf49c369f58dc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"58\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nBear Case\nIs meant to reflect an environment heavily effected by covid for years to come. This case sees tiny revenue growth in 2021, and taking until 2028 to reach pre-pandemic levels. FCF's will remain constant. This case results in a share price of $2,002.53, representing a potential loss of 10.7%.\nBull Case\nIs meant to reflect an environment quickly emerging from the pandemic. This case sees a significant bounce back in 2021 revenues, per FactSet analyst consensus, as travel restrictions and sentiments continue to dissipate. Pre-pandemic revenues will be exceeded by 2024. FCF's will remain constant. This case results in a share price of $3,514.63, representing a potential gain of 56.7%.\nMost importantly,\nWhen considering how soon the world will return to \"normal\", the disparity between expert forecasts and current public sentiment is brutally wide. The current market valuation suggests a return to pre-covid revenues by around 2025-2026. Keep in mind, the CDC expects a return to normalcy by the end of this year and potentially into 2022. Even adding on a year or two and chalking it up as a forecasting error doesn't yield the same fear-driven timeline predictions that the market currently holds.\nOverall,\nAs vaccine rollouts continue worldwide and travel restrictions are lowered, the travel industry is gearing up for a major rebound. Booking is in a perfect position to capitalize. They are the worldwide market leader. They are expanding into new markets effectively. They have demonstrated solid financial success through the pandemic. And they are becoming vastly more profitable. To me, this is a no-brainer. Booking.com,Booking yeah!","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Booking Holdings Poised To Emerge Strongly From Pandemic</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBooking Holdings Poised To Emerge Strongly From Pandemic\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 23:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436923-booking-poised-to-emerge-strongly-from-pandemic>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nBooking Holdings has massive growth potential as vaccine rollouts continue and travel restrictions are lowered.\nTheir profitability will improve in the coming years as they shift more focus ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436923-booking-poised-to-emerge-strongly-from-pandemic\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BKNG":"Booking Holdings"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436923-booking-poised-to-emerge-strongly-from-pandemic","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171400086","content_text":"Summary\n\nBooking Holdings has massive growth potential as vaccine rollouts continue and travel restrictions are lowered.\nTheir profitability will improve in the coming years as they shift more focus toward Merchant Revenues.\nThey are the dominant leader in the travel industry in terms of market capitalization. They will lead the resurgence in travel.\n\ntupungato/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nPoised for a comeback\nBooking Holdings(NASDAQ:BKNG), the world leader in online travel services, is in prime position to emerge from the pandemic in spectacular fashion and spearhead the worldwide resurgence in travel. They will do this by growing their core business, especially within the U.S. where they currently trail in market share, and by shifting their business model to focus more heavily on collecting merchant revenues, which are far more profitable than the agency revenues that make up most of their current sales figure.\nGrowth Strategies emerging from pandemic\nBooking Holdings is aiming at growth strategies through two main avenues; expanding and solidifying a uniform payment platform, and capturing more U.S. market share. Both of their growth strategies are centered around their move towards an increasingly merchant focused business model.\nIntegrating a uniform payment platform can help Booking power the frictionless global marketplace that they seek to create. Booking is trying to alleviate the problem of foreign exchange complications and users not being able to pay how they want for travel. The current payment platform is catching on, but slowly. Only 22% of gross bookings in 2020 were processed on Booking's integrated platform. However, this is up from 15% in 2019, and the figure is expected to grow in the coming years. Implementing this platform will enable merchandising capabilities that Booking hasn't had access to historically. Most importantly, it is foundational for the \"connected trip\" strategy; a seamless offering of multiple elements of travel, and Booking's long-term strategic goal.\nCapturing a greater share of the U.S. market is an imperative growth strategy for Booking for numerous reasons. Firstly, Booking trails competitors Expedia and Airbnb in terms of U.S. market share. While the U.S. hotel market is not quite as profitable for travel fare aggregators like Booking and Expedia when compared to the European market, mainly due to the dominance of hotel chains in the U.S., the potential for Booking to tap into the U.S. alternative accommodation market is promising. And this is what leadership is trying to do. In order to penetrate the market Booking will focus on product improvements, raising consumer awareness of this type of inventory, and supply acquisition. They are planning to work with professional property management partners to grow and acquire a supply of single-home properties. Additionally, as a result of the covid-19 pandemic and associated regulations there has been a shift in favor of domestic travel and alternative accommodations, a signal for Booking to enter into the U.S. space where they currently lack market share. To paint a picture of the growth potential; 41% of Airbnb's revenue comes from its U.S. segment. That 41% is larger than the entire European market where Booking currently has a strong foothold. This implies thatBooking has an opportunity to double their alternative accommodation businessby penetrating into the U.S.\nThe growing trend of homeowners leasing out their unused living spaces is staggering, and it is what pumps Airbnb's valuation up so high to its current Enterprise Value of $114B. Even though Booking records 3x Airbnb's pre-pandemic revenues, their Enterprise Value is 15% less. Many indicators point to Airbnb being overvalued, but one thing is clear; the market for alternative accommodations is growing at immense rates worldwide, and Booking is well poised to dig their teeth into a large chunk of that market share.\nShift from Agency to Merchant Revenues\nThe most exciting thing on Booking's horizon, however, is their focus on becoming more profitable by shifting revenues to weigh more heavily on the merchant segment. Booking has scaled up to be the world leader in market share, and now they are prepared to capitalize on their huge size and reach. Below, I will break down the differences between the two significant revenue items that Booking recognizes, Agency Revenues and Merchant Revenues. Figure 3 shows 2019 revenue breakdown.\n\nAgency Revenues make up the bulk of Booking's total revenue figure. These revenues are derived from transactions in which Booking does not facilitate payments for services, and consist almost entirely of travel reservation commissions invoiced to service providers after travel is completed. This type of revenue model is what helped Booking scale up to attain the market share they have today. However, since they don't facilitate the payments, they are limited on fees and other benefits like increased float.\nMerchant Revenues make up the second largest chunk of Booking's total revenue figure, but are growing at a faster rate. These revenues are derived from transactions in which Booking facilitates the payment of services, generally at the time of booking. From a cash flow perspective, since Booking gets money upfront and doesn't relinquish it to the service provider until the time of stay, they are able to hold onto this cash for months, mostly for free, and can use it to invest and grow the business. These revenues are also more lucrative because Booking charges fees on top of already higher commissions.\nAdvertising & Other Revenues make up the smallest portion of Booking's total revenue figure. These revenues are largely derived from referrals, subscription fees, and advertising placements.\n\nUnder CEO Glenn Fogel's leadership, Booking Holdings istaking strides to grow their merchant revenues at rapid rates. The merchant business model is far more lucrative for Booking on a commission basis, and it also improves their cash flows, allowing them to invest more heavily into future projects. The agency model is great for cheap growth; it is what helped Booking reach the dominant market position that it has today. But the time to capitalize on their massive scale has come, as leadership takes them in a more value-productive direction. Increasing merchant revenues will make them more profitable, improving their already above-average EBITDA margin. Figure 4 shows Booking's growing focus on merchant revenues since Glenn Fogel became CEO in 2017.\nKeep in mind, Booking's largest competitor, Expedia, has a closer split between Agency and Merchant revenues than they do. Despite this, Expedia only has an average 15% EBITDA margin across the last twelve years, compared to Booking's 37%, which will only go up as Booking narrows the field between Agency and Merchant revenues (industry benchmark is 30%). This demonstrates how much more efficient Booking is at turning sales into profits, and highlights the fact that they consistently outperform their competitors in doing so. Moving forward, they will only widen this gap.\nThere are Risks\nReliance on an industry bounce back is one. Booking has a heavy reliance on the overall travel industry getting back on its feet as soon as possible. If government regulations and social distancing sentiments continue to stifle the travel industry at large, it will take Booking longer to return to their pre-pandemic scale.\nCompetitors are another. Booking faces competition from all angles. Expedia is their main direct competitor, and currently holds a majority U.S. market share. If Booking fails to expand more prominently into the U.S. and stagnates growth in other global markets, their overall industry market share dominance could be threatened. Airbnb is spearheading the rise of alternative accommodations, a market that Booking is also competing in. Google could continue its dive into successful reservation meta-search applications such as Google Flights. Their continued expansion into the space could take significant market share away from Booking. Lastly, many hotel chains, especially in the U.S., are developing and facilitating their own direct channels for travelers. If they can create enough consumer awareness and drive enough traffic to their own flagship sites, there would be no need for a majority of Bookings services.\nCOVID-19 Effects on Finances cannot be omitted. The adverse impacts of the covid-19 pandemic could distress liquidity, credit rating, and foreign exchange rates. The ensuing volatility in global markets has made access to capital less certain and more costly. Booking currently has $2B available under its revolving credit facility, representing around 15% of their total liquidity, with a $4.5B minimum liquidity covenant. A downgrade in credit rating from their current A- status could likewise harm access to capital. Lastly, because a large majority of Bookings business comes from outside the U.S. they are exposed to swings in currency rates, which are amplified by pandemic-driven market uncertainty.\nBut an industry bounce-back is inevitable\nIt is no secret that Booking, along with the entire travel industry, took heavy hits as a result of the covid-19 pandemic. 2020 brought the biggest disruption to modern global travel the world has ever seen. But there is light at the end of the tunnel. Travel restrictions within the domestic U.S. are already largely lifted, but many international limits are still in place. Keep in mind that Booking gets most of their business from outside the U.S. Once international limits are relaxed, Booking is sure to reap the benefits. Meanwhile, experts are aiming at areturn to somewhat normalcyby the end of 2021 and into 2022, as vaccine rollouts rapidly become more widespread and pent up demand for travel is unleashed. To paint a picture, in March 2021 U.S. travel spending tallied $69.5B, significantly higher than the previous four months, but still 31% below March 2019 levels.\nA quick look at key Financials\nThe pandemic drained Bookings revenues by a staggering 55% from their 2019 highs. However, despite months of the worst travel stagnation in history, Booking still collected industry leading revenues, a testament to management's relentless efforts to keep the ship afloat. Also, revenue is expected to rebound nearly 40% in 2021 as vaccine rollouts and regulation leniency spur a resurgence in travel demand (per Factset.com). I don't think I'm alone in believing that covid fears are dissipating and the world will get back on its feet sooner rather than later. Figure 7 shows revenue growth and segment breakdown since 2016.\n\nA quick DCF valuation\nI believe Booking Holdings is undervalued at their current share price. My valuation is based on a discounted free cash flow model that projects ten years into the future and arrives at a terminal value into perpetuity. Other metrics used in the model are the company's WAAC of 6.5% (as of June 19, 2021), total debt of $12.54B, and total cash of $11.08B. These numbers are courtesy of FactSet.com The speed at which Booking can return to pre-pandemic levels of revenue is the main driver of each case.\nBase Case\nIs meant to reflect the current market share price of around $2,242.61. This case sees modest 2021 revenue growth as travel begins to make a comeback. FCF's will settle slightly under historical averages. Revenue will reach pre-covid levels by around 2026. Booking will then grow revenues at 2% and collect FCF's at 30% into perpetuity.\n\nBear Case\nIs meant to reflect an environment heavily effected by covid for years to come. This case sees tiny revenue growth in 2021, and taking until 2028 to reach pre-pandemic levels. FCF's will remain constant. This case results in a share price of $2,002.53, representing a potential loss of 10.7%.\nBull Case\nIs meant to reflect an environment quickly emerging from the pandemic. This case sees a significant bounce back in 2021 revenues, per FactSet analyst consensus, as travel restrictions and sentiments continue to dissipate. Pre-pandemic revenues will be exceeded by 2024. FCF's will remain constant. This case results in a share price of $3,514.63, representing a potential gain of 56.7%.\nMost importantly,\nWhen considering how soon the world will return to \"normal\", the disparity between expert forecasts and current public sentiment is brutally wide. The current market valuation suggests a return to pre-covid revenues by around 2025-2026. Keep in mind, the CDC expects a return to normalcy by the end of this year and potentially into 2022. Even adding on a year or two and chalking it up as a forecasting error doesn't yield the same fear-driven timeline predictions that the market currently holds.\nOverall,\nAs vaccine rollouts continue worldwide and travel restrictions are lowered, the travel industry is gearing up for a major rebound. Booking is in a perfect position to capitalize. They are the worldwide market leader. They are expanding into new markets effectively. They have demonstrated solid financial success through the pandemic. And they are becoming vastly more profitable. To me, this is a no-brainer. Booking.com,Booking yeah!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BKNG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1012,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":26,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Booking Holdings Poised To Emerge Strongly From Pandemic

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