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2021-06-30

Well done!

It's going to get trickier for markets. Here's what to watch now, says HSBC strategist.<blockquote>对于市场来说，这将变得更加棘手。汇丰策略师表示，现在值得关注的是。</blockquote>

It's the last trading day of the second quarter, and what a run it's been, even if things have been

It's going to get trickier for markets. Here's what to watch now, says HSBC strategist.<blockquote>对于市场来说，这将变得更加棘手。汇丰策略师表示，现在值得关注的是。</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":153757535,"tweetId":"153757535","gmtCreate":1625053577527,"gmtModify":1631890201819,"author":{"id":3571898360776789,"idStr":"3571898360776789","authorId":3571898360776789,"authorIdStr":"3571898360776789","name":"Coffeecake","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4a012a00e1279b03369c6ec78341355","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":4,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Well done!&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Well done!&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Well done!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153757535","repostId":2147813126,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2147813126","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625052275,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2147813126?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-30 19:24","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"It's going to get trickier for markets. Here's what to watch now, says HSBC strategist.<blockquote>对于市场来说，这将变得更加棘手。汇丰策略师表示，现在值得关注的是。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2147813126","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It's the last trading day of the second quarter, and what a run it's been, even if things have been ","content":"It's the last trading day of the second quarter, and what a run it's been, even if things have been a bit quiet of late.<blockquote>这是第二季度的最后一个交易日，尽管最近情况有点平静，但这是一次多么大的上涨。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has climbed 8% in the second quarter, extending its five-quarter advance to an incredible 66%. For all the worries about megacap tech stocks in the face of rising bond yields, the Nasdaq Composite has surged 10% to take its five-quarter run to 89%. \"I think the drivers are pretty well known at this point. It's the recovery story,\" says Joseph Little, chief global strategist at HSBC Asset Management, pointing to the global economic recovery, rollout of vaccines and both the fiscal and monetary policy support.<blockquote>标普500第二季度上涨了8%，将连续五个季度的涨幅扩大到令人难以置信的66%。尽管面对债券收益率上升，人们对大型科技股感到担忧，但纳斯达克综合指数已飙升10%，连续五个季度上涨至89%。汇丰资产管理公司首席全球策略师约瑟夫·利特尔表示：“我认为目前驱动因素是众所周知的。这就是复苏的故事。”他指出了全球经济复苏、疫苗的推出以及财政和货币政策的支持。</blockquote> Little, however, doesn't expect the party to last much longer. \"I do think there's an important transition taking place in the macro economy and in markets,\" he says, adding it looks like we're past the peak of growth in the U.S., China and most of the industrial Asian countries. Policymakers are getting \"itchy feet on the brake pedal,\" not just in the U.S. where Federal Reserve officials are discussing tapering bond purchases but also in Asia, he said: \"And I think for markets, this might mean that things get a little trickier.\"<blockquote>然而，利特尔预计派对不会持续太久。他表示：“我确实认为宏观经济和市场正在发生重要转变。”他补充说，美国、中国和大多数亚洲工业国家的增长似乎已经过了顶峰。他表示，政策制定者正在“踩刹车踏板”，不仅在美联储官员正在讨论缩减债券购买规模的美国，而且在亚洲也是如此：“我认为对于市场来说，这可能意味着事情变得有点棘手。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b7bfa7390dd3a5e0259dad34f93ce03\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"882\"><blockquote></blockquote> Historically, in the expansion phase of the economic cycle, profits are still good but multiples start to come lower, Little said. He also noted the \"pretty abrupt\" flattening of the yield curve after the recent Fed decision, which he says is another indicator that elements of the reflation trade have really run their course. The upcoming earnings report season will be particularly important now as they will be the driving force of market direction.<blockquote>利特尔说，从历史上看，在经济周期的扩张阶段，利润仍然不错，但市盈率开始下降。他还指出，美联储最近做出决定后，收益率曲线“相当突然”变平，他表示，这是通货再膨胀交易要素真正发挥作用的另一个指标。即将到来的财报季现在尤为重要，因为它们将成为市场方向的驱动力。</blockquote> Expected asset returns, Little says, have fallen across nearly all asset classes. \"It's a case of being realistic, accepting that message of lower expected returns and understanding the fact that you're in an environment where in the next phase of business cycle, profits are going to begin to come into some challenge and some stress,\" he says.<blockquote>利特尔表示，几乎所有资产类别的预期资产回报都有所下降。“这是一个现实的例子，接受预期回报较低的信息，并理解这样一个事实：在商业周期的下一阶段，利润将开始面临一些挑战和压力，”他说。</blockquote> He still likes stocks over bonds due to relative valuation, but says investors should have more exposure to value stocks, particularly in a region like South Asia which could benefit from a broadening global recovery and rollout of vaccines. He noted that China has generated the only positive return in government bonds during the first half of the year. In corporate credit, he again pointed to Asia, as credit spreads aren't as compressed as in the U.S.<blockquote>由于相对估值，他仍然更喜欢股票而不是债券，但他表示，投资者应该更多地投资价值股，特别是在南亚这样的地区，该地区可能受益于全球复苏的扩大和疫苗的推出。他指出，中国是今年上半年政府债券唯一实现正回报的国家。在企业信贷方面，他再次指出亚洲，因为信贷利差不像美国那样压缩。</blockquote> HSBC also has been recommending alternative asset classes, including infrastructure debt. In commodities, HSBC is recommending not just industrial commodities but in natural resources like timber.<blockquote>汇丰银行还一直在推荐另类资产类别，包括基础设施债务。在大宗商品方面，汇丰不仅推荐工业大宗商品，还推荐木材等自然资源。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5822e89128fa1140245bd7324f66d561\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"918\"><blockquote></blockquote> Courtesy of Standard and Poor’s, here’s how different asset classes have performed this year.<blockquote>由标准普尔提供，以下是不同资产类别今年的表现。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It's going to get trickier for markets. 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Here's what to watch now, says HSBC strategist.<blockquote>对于市场来说，这将变得更加棘手。汇丰策略师表示，现在值得关注的是。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-30 19:24\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIt's the last trading day of the second quarter, and what a run it's been, even if things have been a bit quiet of late.<blockquote>这是第二季度的最后一个交易日，尽管最近情况有点平静，但这是一次多么大的上涨。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has climbed 8% in the second quarter, extending its five-quarter advance to an incredible 66%. For all the worries about megacap tech stocks in the face of rising bond yields, the Nasdaq Composite has surged 10% to take its five-quarter run to 89%. \"I think the drivers are pretty well known at this point. It's the recovery story,\" says Joseph Little, chief global strategist at HSBC Asset Management, pointing to the global economic recovery, rollout of vaccines and both the fiscal and monetary policy support.<blockquote>标普500第二季度上涨了8%，将连续五个季度的涨幅扩大到令人难以置信的66%。尽管面对债券收益率上升，人们对大型科技股感到担忧，但纳斯达克综合指数已飙升10%，连续五个季度上涨至89%。汇丰资产管理公司首席全球策略师约瑟夫·利特尔表示：“我认为目前驱动因素是众所周知的。这就是复苏的故事。”他指出了全球经济复苏、疫苗的推出以及财政和货币政策的支持。</blockquote> Little, however, doesn't expect the party to last much longer. \"I do think there's an important transition taking place in the macro economy and in markets,\" he says, adding it looks like we're past the peak of growth in the U.S., China and most of the industrial Asian countries. Policymakers are getting \"itchy feet on the brake pedal,\" not just in the U.S. where Federal Reserve officials are discussing tapering bond purchases but also in Asia, he said: \"And I think for markets, this might mean that things get a little trickier.\"<blockquote>然而，利特尔预计派对不会持续太久。他表示：“我确实认为宏观经济和市场正在发生重要转变。”他补充说，美国、中国和大多数亚洲工业国家的增长似乎已经过了顶峰。他表示，政策制定者正在“踩刹车踏板”，不仅在美联储官员正在讨论缩减债券购买规模的美国，而且在亚洲也是如此：“我认为对于市场来说，这可能意味着事情变得有点棘手。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b7bfa7390dd3a5e0259dad34f93ce03\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"882\"><blockquote></blockquote> Historically, in the expansion phase of the economic cycle, profits are still good but multiples start to come lower, Little said. He also noted the \"pretty abrupt\" flattening of the yield curve after the recent Fed decision, which he says is another indicator that elements of the reflation trade have really run their course. The upcoming earnings report season will be particularly important now as they will be the driving force of market direction.<blockquote>利特尔说，从历史上看，在经济周期的扩张阶段，利润仍然不错，但市盈率开始下降。他还指出，美联储最近做出决定后，收益率曲线“相当突然”变平，他表示，这是通货再膨胀交易要素真正发挥作用的另一个指标。即将到来的财报季现在尤为重要，因为它们将成为市场方向的驱动力。</blockquote> Expected asset returns, Little says, have fallen across nearly all asset classes. \"It's a case of being realistic, accepting that message of lower expected returns and understanding the fact that you're in an environment where in the next phase of business cycle, profits are going to begin to come into some challenge and some stress,\" he says.<blockquote>利特尔表示，几乎所有资产类别的预期资产回报都有所下降。“这是一个现实的例子，接受预期回报较低的信息，并理解这样一个事实：在商业周期的下一阶段，利润将开始面临一些挑战和压力，”他说。</blockquote> He still likes stocks over bonds due to relative valuation, but says investors should have more exposure to value stocks, particularly in a region like South Asia which could benefit from a broadening global recovery and rollout of vaccines. He noted that China has generated the only positive return in government bonds during the first half of the year. In corporate credit, he again pointed to Asia, as credit spreads aren't as compressed as in the U.S.<blockquote>由于相对估值，他仍然更喜欢股票而不是债券，但他表示，投资者应该更多地投资价值股，特别是在南亚这样的地区，该地区可能受益于全球复苏的扩大和疫苗的推出。他指出，中国是今年上半年政府债券唯一实现正回报的国家。在企业信贷方面，他再次指出亚洲，因为信贷利差不像美国那样压缩。</blockquote> HSBC also has been recommending alternative asset classes, including infrastructure debt. In commodities, HSBC is recommending not just industrial commodities but in natural resources like timber.<blockquote>汇丰银行还一直在推荐另类资产类别，包括基础设施债务。在大宗商品方面，汇丰不仅推荐工业大宗商品，还推荐木材等自然资源。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5822e89128fa1140245bd7324f66d561\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"918\"><blockquote></blockquote> Courtesy of Standard and Poor’s, here’s how different asset classes have performed this year.<blockquote>由标准普尔提供，以下是不同资产类别今年的表现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-going-to-get-trickier-for-markets-heres-what-to-watch-now-says-hsbc-strategist-11625050718?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-going-to-get-trickier-for-markets-heres-what-to-watch-now-says-hsbc-strategist-11625050718?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2147813126","content_text":"It's the last trading day of the second quarter, and what a run it's been, even if things have been a bit quiet of late.\nThe S&P 500 has climbed 8% in the second quarter, extending its five-quarter advance to an incredible 66%. For all the worries about megacap tech stocks in the face of rising bond yields, the Nasdaq Composite has surged 10% to take its five-quarter run to 89%. \"I think the drivers are pretty well known at this point. It's the recovery story,\" says Joseph Little, chief global strategist at HSBC Asset Management, pointing to the global economic recovery, rollout of vaccines and both the fiscal and monetary policy support.\nLittle, however, doesn't expect the party to last much longer. \"I do think there's an important transition taking place in the macro economy and in markets,\" he says, adding it looks like we're past the peak of growth in the U.S., China and most of the industrial Asian countries. Policymakers are getting \"itchy feet on the brake pedal,\" not just in the U.S. where Federal Reserve officials are discussing tapering bond purchases but also in Asia, he said: \"And I think for markets, this might mean that things get a little trickier.\"\n\nHistorically, in the expansion phase of the economic cycle, profits are still good but multiples start to come lower, Little said. He also noted the \"pretty abrupt\" flattening of the yield curve after the recent Fed decision, which he says is another indicator that elements of the reflation trade have really run their course. The upcoming earnings report season will be particularly important now as they will be the driving force of market direction.\nExpected asset returns, Little says, have fallen across nearly all asset classes. \"It's a case of being realistic, accepting that message of lower expected returns and understanding the fact that you're in an environment where in the next phase of business cycle, profits are going to begin to come into some challenge and some stress,\" he says.\nHe still likes stocks over bonds due to relative valuation, but says investors should have more exposure to value stocks, particularly in a region like South Asia which could benefit from a broadening global recovery and rollout of vaccines. He noted that China has generated the only positive return in government bonds during the first half of the year. In corporate credit, he again pointed to Asia, as credit spreads aren't as compressed as in the U.S.\nHSBC also has been recommending alternative asset classes, including infrastructure debt. In commodities, HSBC is recommending not just industrial commodities but in natural resources like timber.\n\nCourtesy of Standard and Poor’s, here’s how different asset classes have performed this year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2919,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":9,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}