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2021-06-10

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Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows<blockquote>高盛解释了为什么无论今天的消费者物价指数显示什么，经济都不会过热</blockquote>

Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu

Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows<blockquote>高盛解释了为什么无论今天的消费者物价指数显示什么，经济都不会过热</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":183617105,"tweetId":"183617105","gmtCreate":1623328373707,"gmtModify":1631885284586,"author":{"id":3574312720176101,"idStr":"3574312720176101","authorId":3574312720176101,"authorIdStr":"3574312720176101","name":"TohKokMeng79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09aad76a158a443465cacafe0bebb97","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":6,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Goldman</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Goldman</body></html>","text":"Goldman","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183617105","repostId":1127298356,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows<blockquote>高盛解释了为什么无论今天的消费者物价指数显示什么，经济都不会过热</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...<blockquote>10年期国债收益率自3月初以来首次跌破1.50%，此前曾讨论过激烈的空头挤压...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.<blockquote>...随着大流行后的通胀担忧似乎像爆发一样迅速减弱。</blockquote> This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...<blockquote>这是我们上个月在观察中国信贷冲动崩溃时首次提出的一点，可以说是整个全球再通胀叙事中最重要的变量（见“中国信贷冲动刚刚转为负面，释放全球通缩冲击波”）...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.<blockquote>...高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在周二发表的一份题为“为什么经济不会过热”的报告中重申了这一点，他在报告中与美联储一样认为，我们迄今为止看到的通胀很可能是暂时的，随着我们进一步远离前所未有的大流行活动削减，价格将再次正常化。</blockquote> While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...<blockquote>虽然我们不同意——德意志银行也不同意，它认为美联储很快就会释放魏玛恶性通货膨胀，这是我们在2009年3月首次预测的最终结局——但有趣的是，至少在今天，市场似乎正在接受这一观点，从10年期名义利率的崩溃和最近盈亏平衡上升趋势线的突破来看...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.<blockquote>...尽管中国的PPI一夜之间达到了雷曼兄弟2008年9月的高点9.0%。</blockquote> So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"<blockquote>那么，高盛认为通胀担忧消退的原因是什么呢？正如Hatzius和策略师Chris Hussey解释的那样，过去的两份就业报告并不令人印象深刻，因为“慷慨的刺激措施以及可能无法简单地处理如此多的新工人，导致重返工作岗位的热潮正在放缓。一方面，随着公司竞相吸引新工人，可用工人的减少应该会推高工资。但在大流行后的复苏中，更有序的就业流动也可能会延长重新开放期，并可能减轻价格的顶线压力。”</blockquote> Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.<blockquote>通胀担忧消退的另一个原因可能只是时间。高盛表示，随着美国人越来越习惯于回到日常生活中，这种活动的陌生感正在消退。投资者也许更容易想象“正常”会是什么样子。也许这种愿景正在围绕一种“新常态”集体凝聚，这种“新常态”看起来与大流行前的“旧常态”惊人地相似。</blockquote> Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"<blockquote>哈齐乌斯随后阐述了为什么最近的通胀回升仍将是暂时的：“在工资方面，随着对病毒的恐惧进一步减弱以及每周300美元的福利充值到期，劳动力供应应该会在未来3-6个月内大幅增加——大多数共和党控制的州将在未来几周内到期，其余州将在9月6日到期。”</blockquote> In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.<blockquote>换句话说，雇主可能会再坚持3个月，直到紧急福利到期，届时他们预计大量工人将扭转劳动力市场的格局，从没有劳动力供应到大量供应。</blockquote> On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.<blockquote>在价格方面，高盛削减的核心PCE——不包括30%最极端的月度价格变化，提醒一下上个月通胀飙升主要是由二手车价格和运输服务飙升推动的，或者正如高盛所说的“异常值”——同比仍仅为1.56%，是标准核心PCE利率的一半。这一差距说明了异常值在近期通胀回升中前所未有的作用。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"<blockquote>最终，对高盛来说，过热辩论中最大的问题仍然是美国产出和就业在未来几年是否会大幅高于潜力。如果答案是肯定的，那么通胀确实可能会在更持久的基础上攀升至不良水平。可以预见的是，高盛的答案仍然是否定的，原因如下：“尽管实际GDP几乎回到了大流行前的水平，但基于剩余的近800万个就业岗位缺口和大流行的推动，我们仍然看到经济显着疲软。第一季度生产率同比增长4.1%。此外，我们认为，按月计算，GDP环比增长可能已经见顶，随着财政刺激的减弱，GDP环比增长将呈下降趋势，先是温和，然后在2021年底和2022年大幅下降。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.<blockquote>摩根大通也加入了进来，经济学家丹·西尔弗(Dan Silver)在最近的一份报告中写道，当我们准备CPI数据时，值得考虑取消联邦失业救济金和增加时薪的影响。在西尔弗的报告中，他说明了低收入工作岗位空缺的增长。</blockquote> JPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.<blockquote>摩根大通随后提出了正确的问题：“如果企业主知道供应正在恢复，工资上涨会持续吗？”我们以前问过这个问题，答案是决定性的否定。对于摩根大通来说，如果答案确实是否定的，“我们看到工资增长、支出和消费者物价指数的减速速度快于预期。”不过，或者，我们似乎更有可能看到就业岗位激增，绝对宏观数据也可能进一步走高。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.<blockquote>考虑到这一点，通胀催化剂方面的下一步是什么？今天的关键CPI数据将显示什么？在此，高盛预计5月份核心CPI将上涨0.50%（与共识一致），这将使同比增长率从3.0%提高十分之六至3.55%，但这在很大程度上受到基数效应崩溃的影响去年。高盛月度核心通胀预测“反映了重新开放推动的机票、酒店价格和娱乐价格走强。”此外，高盛预计二手车（+6%）和新车（+0.5%）的月度数据将强劲，反映出“一次性”供应链中断和微芯片短缺。</blockquote> And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"<blockquote>尽管美联储更关心PCE通胀而不是CPI，但高盛的结论是，尽管通胀爆发是暂时的，”在一个可能专注于将通胀率保持在2%左右的货币制度中，看看市场对3.5%以上的通胀报告有何反应将会很有趣。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...<blockquote>虽然我们不同意——德意志银行也不同意，它认为美联储很快就会释放魏玛恶性通货膨胀，这是我们在2009年3月首次预测的最终结局——但有趣的是，至少在今天，市场似乎正在接受这一观点，从10年期名义利率的崩溃和最近盈亏平衡上升趋势线的突破来看...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.<blockquote>...尽管中国的PPI一夜之间达到了雷曼兄弟2008年9月的高点9.0%。</blockquote> So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"<blockquote>那么，高盛认为通胀担忧消退的原因是什么呢？正如Hatzius和策略师Chris Hussey解释的那样，过去的两份就业报告并不令人印象深刻，因为“慷慨的刺激措施以及可能无法简单地处理如此多的新工人，导致重返工作岗位的热潮正在放缓。一方面，随着公司竞相吸引新工人，可用工人的减少应该会推高工资。但在大流行后的复苏中，更有序的就业流动也可能会延长重新开放期，并可能减轻价格的顶线压力。”</blockquote> Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.<blockquote>通胀担忧消退的另一个原因可能只是时间。高盛表示，随着美国人越来越习惯于回到日常生活中，这种活动的陌生感正在消退。投资者也许更容易想象“正常”会是什么样子。也许这种愿景正在围绕一种“新常态”集体凝聚，这种“新常态”看起来与大流行前的“旧常态”惊人地相似。</blockquote> Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"<blockquote>哈齐乌斯随后阐述了为什么最近的通胀回升仍将是暂时的：“在工资方面，随着对病毒的恐惧进一步减弱以及每周300美元的福利充值到期，劳动力供应应该会在未来3-6个月内大幅增加——大多数共和党控制的州将在未来几周内到期，其余州将在9月6日到期。”</blockquote> In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.<blockquote>换句话说，雇主可能会再坚持3个月，直到紧急福利到期，届时他们预计大量工人将扭转劳动力市场的格局，从没有劳动力供应到大量供应。</blockquote> On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.<blockquote>在价格方面，高盛削减的核心PCE——不包括30%最极端的月度价格变化，提醒一下上个月通胀飙升主要是由二手车价格和运输服务飙升推动的，或者正如高盛所说的“异常值”——同比仍仅为1.56%，是标准核心PCE利率的一半。这一差距说明了异常值在近期通胀回升中前所未有的作用。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"<blockquote>最终，对高盛来说，过热辩论中最大的问题仍然是美国产出和就业在未来几年是否会大幅高于潜力。如果答案是肯定的，那么通胀确实可能会在更持久的基础上攀升至不良水平。可以预见的是，高盛的答案仍然是否定的，原因如下：“尽管实际GDP几乎回到了大流行前的水平，但基于剩余的近800万个就业岗位缺口和大流行的推动，我们仍然看到经济显着疲软。第一季度生产率同比增长4.1%。此外，我们认为，按月计算，GDP环比增长可能已经见顶，随着财政刺激的减弱，GDP环比增长将呈下降趋势，先是温和，然后在2021年底和2022年大幅下降。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.<blockquote>摩根大通也加入了进来，经济学家丹·西尔弗(Dan Silver)在最近的一份报告中写道，当我们准备CPI数据时，值得考虑取消联邦失业救济金和增加时薪的影响。在西尔弗的报告中，他说明了低收入工作岗位空缺的增长。</blockquote> JPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.<blockquote>摩根大通随后提出了正确的问题：“如果企业主知道供应正在恢复，工资上涨会持续吗？”我们以前问过这个问题，答案是决定性的否定。对于摩根大通来说，如果答案确实是否定的，“我们看到工资增长、支出和消费者物价指数的减速速度快于预期。”不过，或者，我们似乎更有可能看到就业岗位激增，绝对宏观数据也可能进一步走高。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.<blockquote>考虑到这一点，通胀催化剂方面的下一步是什么？今天的关键CPI数据将显示什么？在此，高盛预计5月份核心CPI将上涨0.50%（与共识一致），这将使同比增长率从3.0%提高十分之六至3.55%，但这在很大程度上受到基数效应崩溃的影响去年。高盛月度核心通胀预测“反映了重新开放推动的机票、酒店价格和娱乐价格走强。”此外，高盛预计二手车（+6%）和新车（+0.5%）的月度数据将强劲，反映出“一次性”供应链中断和微芯片短缺。</blockquote> And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"<blockquote>尽管美联储更关心PCE通胀而不是CPI，但高盛的结论是，尽管通胀爆发是暂时的，”在一个可能专注于将通胀率保持在2%左右的货币制度中，看看市场对3.5%以上的通胀报告有何反应将会很有趣。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1836,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["GS"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows<blockquote>高盛解释了为什么无论今天的消费者物价指数显示什么，经济都不会过热</blockquote>

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