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2021-06-12

The Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans<blockquote>宿醉来了：爆炸性通货膨胀导致房屋和汽车购买计划创纪录崩溃</blockquote>

For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on

The Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans<blockquote>宿醉来了：爆炸性通货膨胀导致房屋和汽车购买计划创纪录崩溃</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":188651663,"tweetId":"188651663","gmtCreate":1623434774652,"gmtModify":1634033195491,"author":{"id":3574836284967279,"idStr":"3574836284967279","authorId":3574836284967279,"authorIdStr":"3574836284967279","name":"Cocogoat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b4e8b264534d37dca159672f7a89ad6","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Up</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Up</body></html>","text":"Up","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188651663","repostId":1114257617,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114257617","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623425495,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114257617?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 23:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans<blockquote>宿醉来了：爆炸性通货膨胀导致房屋和汽车购买计划创纪录崩溃</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114257617","media":"zerohedge","summary":"For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on","content":"For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations (\"Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!\") and consumers (\"\"This Is Not Transitory\": Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America\"), prompting even otherwise boring sellside research to get&nbsp; (hyper) exciting, with Deutsche Bank (which warned this week that \"Inflation Is About To Explode \"Leaving Global Economies Sitting On A Time Bomb\"\") and Bank of America (which \"Just Threw Up All Over The Fed's \"Transitory\" Argument\") now openly claiming thatthe Fed is wrong, and the US is facing an unprecedented period of far higher, non-transitory inflation, with DB going so far as towarn\"policymakers will face the most challenging years since the Volcker/Reagan period in the 1980s.\"<blockquote>在过去的几个月里，我们一直在警告价格飙升对企业（“系好安全带！通货膨胀来了！”）和消费者（“这不是暂时的”：对恶性通货膨胀的担忧正在整个美国飙升”）的有害影响，促使即使是无聊的卖方研究也变得（超级）令人兴奋，德意志银行（本周警告称“通胀即将爆发”，“让全球经济坐在一颗定时炸弹上”）和美国银行（“刚刚吐槽了美联储的“暂时”论点”）现在公开声称美联储错了美国正面临前所未有的高得多的非暂时性通胀时期，德国央行甚至警告“政策制定者将面临自上世纪80年代沃尔克/里根时期以来最具挑战性的几年。”</blockquote> But none of this has spooked the Fed into conceding - or believing - that inflation is anything more than transitory. And maybe just this once, the Fed has a point because all else equal, by which we mean lack of rising wages, the best cure to higher prices is, well... higher prices.<blockquote>但所有这些都没有吓到美联储承认——或相信——通胀只不过是暂时的。也许就这一次，美联储说得有道理，因为在其他条件相同的情况下，我们指的是工资没有上涨，解决物价上涨的最佳方法是，嗯...更高的价格。</blockquote> Presenting Exhibit A: two weeks ago,we observed that anticipatingan end to Biden's stimmy bonanza end and that soon they will have to live again within their means, Americans' buying intentions (6 months from today) as measured by the Conference Board, had cratered across the 3 major spending categories: homes, automobiles and major household appliances.<blockquote>出示附件A：两周前，我们观察到，预计拜登令人兴奋的财富将结束，很快他们将不得不再次量入为出，根据世界大型企业联合会的衡量，美国人的购买意愿（从今天起6个月）在3个主要支出类别：住宅、汽车和主要家用电器。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/440125680ea111da38a7c9adbc47f811\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> The drop was so massive, it amounted to the biggest one-month drop in intentions to purchase appliances...<blockquote>降幅如此之大，相当于购买家电意向的最大单月降幅...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483ef9fdbbe4fe34fc94863262839a85\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and homes...<blockquote>...还有家...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea40a948d838e7eaa00fbde1f60e1906\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> This confirms what wenoted earlier, namely a record divergence between crashing homebuyer confidence (due to record home prices) and soaring homebuilder confidence (also due to record home prices). Guess which one will matter in the end.<blockquote>这证实了我们之前提到的，即购房者信心崩溃（由于创纪录的房价）和房屋建筑商信心飙升（也由于创纪录的房价）之间的创纪录差异。猜猜哪一个最终会很重要。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a49f04b77740aab4ba75d00085dd8ada\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Fast forward to today when we just gotExhibit B: the June UMichigan Sentiment Survey.<blockquote>快进到今天我们刚刚得到证据B：六月密歇根情绪调查。</blockquote> While there wassome good news here, in that inflation expectations for both the 1-year and 5-10 look ahead periods dropped slightly...<blockquote>虽然这里有一些好消息，但未来1年和5-10年的通胀预期均略有下降...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0cf98553bfedc6500457c9aa3cbe0f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... what we found more concerning is what chief economist, Richard Curtin said namely that since \"Rising inflation remained a top concern of consumers\", the spontaneous references to market prices for homes, vehicles, and household durables fell to their worst level since the all-time record in November 1974.<blockquote>...我们发现更令人担忧的是首席经济学家理查德·科廷(Richard Curtin)所说的，即由于“通胀上升仍然是消费者最关心的问题”，房屋、汽车和家庭耐用品市场价格的自发参考跌至自1974年11月创纪录以来的最糟糕水平。</blockquote> And as Curtin adds, \"these unfavorable perceptions of market prices reduced overall buying attitudes for vehicles and homes to their lowest point since 1982.These declines were especially sharp among those with incomes in the top third, who account for more than half of the dollar volume of retail sales.\"<blockquote>正如科廷补充的那样，“这些对市场价格的不利看法将汽车和房屋的整体购买态度降至1982年以来的最低点。对于收入排名前三分之一的人来说，这些下降尤其严重，他们占零售额的一半以上。”</blockquote> This can be seen in the following chart showing records across the board for \"bad buying conditions\" due to high prices for houses, durable goods and autos. In other words, due to soarking prices is America is going on a buyers' strike.<blockquote>这可以从下图中看出，该图显示了由于房屋、耐用品和汽车价格高企而导致的“不良购买条件”的全面记录。换句话说，由于价格飙升，美国正在进行买家罢工。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b46f5f27af1090c20579d573274a9f52\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> This, for better or worse,screams not only stagflation but also permanently higher prices,as Curting elaborates:<blockquote>不管是好是坏，尖叫的不仅是滞胀，还有永久上涨的价格，正如柯廷所阐述的：</blockquote> ... in the emergence from the pandemic, consumers are temporarily less sensitive to prices due to pent-up demand and record savings as well as improved job and income prospects. The acceptance of price increases as due to the pandemic, makes inflationary psychology more likely to gain a foothold if the exit is lengthy. The problem: sooner or laters the stimmies will end, but prices by then will already be fixed higher, and good luck trying to pull them down.<blockquote>...在疫情的出现中，由于被压抑的需求和创纪录的储蓄以及就业和收入前景的改善，消费者对价格的敏感度暂时降低。如果退出时间很长，人们接受疫情导致的价格上涨，使得通胀心理更有可能站稳脚跟。问题是：刺激迟早会结束，但到那时价格已经被固定得更高，祝你好运，试图拉低价格。</blockquote> While expansive monetary and fiscal policies are still warranted, the accompanying rise in inflation will cause uneven distributional impacts. Those impacts have already been noticed in June among the elderly and lower income households. A shift in the Fed's policy language could douse any incipient inflationary psychology, it would be no surprise to consumers, as two-thirds already expect higher interest rates in the year ahead. Oh, and for those saying wage hikes may be permanent we have some bad news: employers know very well that the extended unemployment benefits bonanza ends in September at which point millions of currently unemployed workers will flood back into the labor force sending wages sharply lower, and is why instead of raising base pay, most potential employers offer one-time bonuses, which - as the name implies - are one-time. As for higher wage pressures, well... just wait until October when everything reverses, Uncle Sam is no longer a better paying competitor to the US private sector, and wages slump.<blockquote>虽然扩张性货币和财政政策仍然是必要的，但随之而来的通胀上升将造成分配不均的影响。六月份，老年人和低收入家庭已经注意到了这些影响。美联储政策语言的转变可能会浇灭任何初期的通胀心理，这对消费者来说并不奇怪，因为三分之二的人已经预计未来一年利率会上升。哦，对于那些说工资上涨可能是永久性的人来说，我们有一些坏消息：雇主非常清楚，延长失业救济金的繁荣将于9月份结束，届时数百万目前失业的工人将涌入劳动力市场，导致工资大幅下降，这就是为什么大多数潜在雇主不提高基本工资，而是提供一次性奖金，顾名思义，这是一次性的。至于更高的工资压力，嗯...等到10月份，当一切发生逆转时，山姆大叔不再是美国私营部门薪酬更高的竞争对手，工资也会暴跌。</blockquote> What does that mean for the economy? Well, all those producers and retailers who got used to bumper demand and pushed their prices sharply and not so sharply higher, will face a stark choice: either drag prices right back down, or sell far fewer goods and services. That, or just await the next bailout.<blockquote>这对经济意味着什么？好吧，所有那些习惯于满足需求并大幅推高价格（而不是大幅上涨）的生产商和零售商将面临严峻的选择：要么直接拉低价格，要么销售更少的商品和服务。或者只是等待下一次救助。</blockquote> One thing is certain:six months from today, the US economy will be far, far uglier.<blockquote>有一点是肯定的：从今天起六个月后，美国经济将会更加丑陋。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans<blockquote>宿醉来了：爆炸性通货膨胀导致房屋和汽车购买计划创纪录崩溃</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans<blockquote>宿醉来了：爆炸性通货膨胀导致房屋和汽车购买计划创纪录崩溃</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-06-11 23:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nFor the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations (\"Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!\") and consumers (\"\"This Is Not Transitory\": Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America\"), prompting even otherwise boring sellside research to get&nbsp; (hyper) exciting, with Deutsche Bank (which warned this week that \"Inflation Is About To Explode \"Leaving Global Economies Sitting On A Time Bomb\"\") and Bank of America (which \"Just Threw Up All Over The Fed's \"Transitory\" Argument\") now openly claiming thatthe Fed is wrong, and the US is facing an unprecedented period of far higher, non-transitory inflation, with DB going so far as towarn\"policymakers will face the most challenging years since the Volcker/Reagan period in the 1980s.\"<blockquote>在过去的几个月里，我们一直在警告价格飙升对企业（“系好安全带！通货膨胀来了！”）和消费者（“这不是暂时的”：对恶性通货膨胀的担忧正在整个美国飙升”）的有害影响，促使即使是无聊的卖方研究也变得（超级）令人兴奋，德意志银行（本周警告称“通胀即将爆发”，“让全球经济坐在一颗定时炸弹上”）和美国银行（“刚刚吐槽了美联储的“暂时”论点”）现在公开声称美联储错了美国正面临前所未有的高得多的非暂时性通胀时期，德国央行甚至警告“政策制定者将面临自上世纪80年代沃尔克/里根时期以来最具挑战性的几年。”</blockquote> But none of this has spooked the Fed into conceding - or believing - that inflation is anything more than transitory. And maybe just this once, the Fed has a point because all else equal, by which we mean lack of rising wages, the best cure to higher prices is, well... higher prices.<blockquote>但所有这些都没有吓到美联储承认——或相信——通胀只不过是暂时的。也许就这一次，美联储说得有道理，因为在其他条件相同的情况下，我们指的是工资没有上涨，解决物价上涨的最佳方法是，嗯...更高的价格。</blockquote> Presenting Exhibit A: two weeks ago,we observed that anticipatingan end to Biden's stimmy bonanza end and that soon they will have to live again within their means, Americans' buying intentions (6 months from today) as measured by the Conference Board, had cratered across the 3 major spending categories: homes, automobiles and major household appliances.<blockquote>出示附件A：两周前，我们观察到，预计拜登令人兴奋的财富将结束，很快他们将不得不再次量入为出，根据世界大型企业联合会的衡量，美国人的购买意愿（从今天起6个月）在3个主要支出类别：住宅、汽车和主要家用电器。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/440125680ea111da38a7c9adbc47f811\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> The drop was so massive, it amounted to the biggest one-month drop in intentions to purchase appliances...<blockquote>降幅如此之大，相当于购买家电意向的最大单月降幅...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483ef9fdbbe4fe34fc94863262839a85\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and homes...<blockquote>...还有家...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea40a948d838e7eaa00fbde1f60e1906\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> This confirms what wenoted earlier, namely a record divergence between crashing homebuyer confidence (due to record home prices) and soaring homebuilder confidence (also due to record home prices). Guess which one will matter in the end.<blockquote>这证实了我们之前提到的，即购房者信心崩溃（由于创纪录的房价）和房屋建筑商信心飙升（也由于创纪录的房价）之间的创纪录差异。猜猜哪一个最终会很重要。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a49f04b77740aab4ba75d00085dd8ada\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Fast forward to today when we just gotExhibit B: the June UMichigan Sentiment Survey.<blockquote>快进到今天我们刚刚得到证据B：六月密歇根情绪调查。</blockquote> While there wassome good news here, in that inflation expectations for both the 1-year and 5-10 look ahead periods dropped slightly...<blockquote>虽然这里有一些好消息，但未来1年和5-10年的通胀预期均略有下降...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0cf98553bfedc6500457c9aa3cbe0f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... what we found more concerning is what chief economist, Richard Curtin said namely that since \"Rising inflation remained a top concern of consumers\", the spontaneous references to market prices for homes, vehicles, and household durables fell to their worst level since the all-time record in November 1974.<blockquote>...我们发现更令人担忧的是首席经济学家理查德·科廷(Richard Curtin)所说的，即由于“通胀上升仍然是消费者最关心的问题”，房屋、汽车和家庭耐用品市场价格的自发参考跌至自1974年11月创纪录以来的最糟糕水平。</blockquote> And as Curtin adds, \"these unfavorable perceptions of market prices reduced overall buying attitudes for vehicles and homes to their lowest point since 1982.These declines were especially sharp among those with incomes in the top third, who account for more than half of the dollar volume of retail sales.\"<blockquote>正如科廷补充的那样，“这些对市场价格的不利看法将汽车和房屋的整体购买态度降至1982年以来的最低点。对于收入排名前三分之一的人来说，这些下降尤其严重，他们占零售额的一半以上。”</blockquote> This can be seen in the following chart showing records across the board for \"bad buying conditions\" due to high prices for houses, durable goods and autos. In other words, due to soarking prices is America is going on a buyers' strike.<blockquote>这可以从下图中看出，该图显示了由于房屋、耐用品和汽车价格高企而导致的“不良购买条件”的全面记录。换句话说，由于价格飙升，美国正在进行买家罢工。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b46f5f27af1090c20579d573274a9f52\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> This, for better or worse,screams not only stagflation but also permanently higher prices,as Curting elaborates:<blockquote>不管是好是坏，尖叫的不仅是滞胀，还有永久上涨的价格，正如柯廷所阐述的：</blockquote> ... in the emergence from the pandemic, consumers are temporarily less sensitive to prices due to pent-up demand and record savings as well as improved job and income prospects. The acceptance of price increases as due to the pandemic, makes inflationary psychology more likely to gain a foothold if the exit is lengthy. The problem: sooner or laters the stimmies will end, but prices by then will already be fixed higher, and good luck trying to pull them down.<blockquote>...在疫情的出现中，由于被压抑的需求和创纪录的储蓄以及就业和收入前景的改善，消费者对价格的敏感度暂时降低。如果退出时间很长，人们接受疫情导致的价格上涨，使得通胀心理更有可能站稳脚跟。问题是：刺激迟早会结束，但到那时价格已经被固定得更高，祝你好运，试图拉低价格。</blockquote> While expansive monetary and fiscal policies are still warranted, the accompanying rise in inflation will cause uneven distributional impacts. Those impacts have already been noticed in June among the elderly and lower income households. A shift in the Fed's policy language could douse any incipient inflationary psychology, it would be no surprise to consumers, as two-thirds already expect higher interest rates in the year ahead. Oh, and for those saying wage hikes may be permanent we have some bad news: employers know very well that the extended unemployment benefits bonanza ends in September at which point millions of currently unemployed workers will flood back into the labor force sending wages sharply lower, and is why instead of raising base pay, most potential employers offer one-time bonuses, which - as the name implies - are one-time. As for higher wage pressures, well... just wait until October when everything reverses, Uncle Sam is no longer a better paying competitor to the US private sector, and wages slump.<blockquote>虽然扩张性货币和财政政策仍然是必要的，但随之而来的通胀上升将造成分配不均的影响。六月份，老年人和低收入家庭已经注意到了这些影响。美联储政策语言的转变可能会浇灭任何初期的通胀心理，这对消费者来说并不奇怪，因为三分之二的人已经预计未来一年利率会上升。哦，对于那些说工资上涨可能是永久性的人来说，我们有一些坏消息：雇主非常清楚，延长失业救济金的繁荣将于9月份结束，届时数百万目前失业的工人将涌入劳动力市场，导致工资大幅下降，这就是为什么大多数潜在雇主不提高基本工资，而是提供一次性奖金，顾名思义，这是一次性的。至于更高的工资压力，嗯...等到10月份，当一切发生逆转时，山姆大叔不再是美国私营部门薪酬更高的竞争对手，工资也会暴跌。</blockquote> What does that mean for the economy? Well, all those producers and retailers who got used to bumper demand and pushed their prices sharply and not so sharply higher, will face a stark choice: either drag prices right back down, or sell far fewer goods and services. That, or just await the next bailout.<blockquote>这对经济意味着什么？好吧，所有那些习惯于满足需求并大幅推高价格（而不是大幅上涨）的生产商和零售商将面临严峻的选择：要么直接拉低价格，要么销售更少的商品和服务。或者只是等待下一次救助。</blockquote> One thing is certain:six months from today, the US economy will be far, far uglier.<blockquote>有一点是肯定的：从今天起六个月后，美国经济将会更加丑陋。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hangover-arrives-explosive-inflation-leads-record-collapse-home-car-purchase-plans\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hangover-arrives-explosive-inflation-leads-record-collapse-home-car-purchase-plans","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114257617","content_text":"For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations (\"Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!\") and consumers (\"\"This Is Not Transitory\": Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America\"), prompting even otherwise boring sellside research to get  (hyper) exciting, with Deutsche Bank (which warned this week that \"Inflation Is About To Explode \"Leaving Global Economies Sitting On A Time Bomb\"\") and Bank of America (which \"Just Threw Up All Over The Fed's \"Transitory\" Argument\") now openly claiming thatthe Fed is wrong, and the US is facing an unprecedented period of far higher, non-transitory inflation, with DB going so far as towarn\"policymakers will face the most challenging years since the Volcker/Reagan period in the 1980s.\"\nBut none of this has spooked the Fed into conceding - or believing - that inflation is anything more than transitory. And maybe just this once, the Fed has a point because all else equal, by which we mean lack of rising wages, the best cure to higher prices is, well... higher prices.\nPresenting Exhibit A: two weeks ago,we observed that anticipatingan end to Biden's stimmy bonanza end and that soon they will have to live again within their means, Americans' buying intentions (6 months from today) as measured by the Conference Board, had cratered across the 3 major spending categories: homes, automobiles and major household appliances.\n\nThe drop was so massive, it amounted to the biggest one-month drop in intentions to purchase appliances...\n\n... and homes...\n\nThis confirms what wenoted earlier, namely a record divergence between crashing homebuyer confidence (due to record home prices) and soaring homebuilder confidence (also due to record home prices). Guess which one will matter in the end.\n\nFast forward to today when we just gotExhibit B: the June UMichigan Sentiment Survey.\nWhile there wassome good news here, in that inflation expectations for both the 1-year and 5-10 look ahead periods dropped slightly...\n\n... what we found more concerning is what chief economist, Richard Curtin said namely that since \"Rising inflation remained a top concern of consumers\", the spontaneous references to market prices for homes, vehicles, and household durables fell to their worst level since the all-time record in November 1974.\nAnd as Curtin adds, \"these unfavorable perceptions of market prices reduced overall buying attitudes for vehicles and homes to their lowest point since 1982.These declines were especially sharp among those with incomes in the top third, who account for more than half of the dollar volume of retail sales.\"\nThis can be seen in the following chart showing records across the board for \"bad buying conditions\" due to high prices for houses, durable goods and autos. In other words, due to soarking prices is America is going on a buyers' strike.\n\nThis, for better or worse,screams not only stagflation but also permanently higher prices,as Curting elaborates:\n\n... in the emergence from the pandemic, consumers are temporarily less sensitive to prices due to pent-up demand and record savings as well as improved job and income prospects.\nThe acceptance of price increases as due to the pandemic, makes inflationary psychology more likely to gain a foothold if the exit is lengthy.\n\nThe problem: sooner or laters the stimmies will end, but prices by then will already be fixed higher, and good luck trying to pull them down.\n\nWhile expansive monetary and fiscal policies are still warranted, the accompanying rise in inflation will cause uneven distributional impacts. Those impacts have already been noticed in June among the elderly and lower income households. A shift in the Fed's policy language could douse any incipient inflationary psychology, it would be no surprise to consumers, as two-thirds already expect higher interest rates in the year ahead.\n\nOh, and for those saying wage hikes may be permanent we have some bad news: employers know very well that the extended unemployment benefits bonanza ends in September at which point millions of currently unemployed workers will flood back into the labor force sending wages sharply lower, and is why instead of raising base pay, most potential employers offer one-time bonuses, which - as the name implies - are one-time. As for higher wage pressures, well... just wait until October when everything reverses, Uncle Sam is no longer a better paying competitor to the US private sector, and wages slump.\nWhat does that mean for the economy? Well, all those producers and retailers who got used to bumper demand and pushed their prices sharply and not so sharply higher, will face a stark choice: either drag prices right back down, or sell far fewer goods and services. That, or just await the next bailout.\nOne thing is certain:six months from today, the US economy will be far, far uglier.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2294,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

The Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans<blockquote>宿醉来了：爆炸性通货膨胀导致房屋和汽车购买计划创纪录崩溃</blockquote>

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