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2021-05-17

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Money Managers Say It’s Time to Get Picky in Emerging Markets<blockquote>基金经理表示是时候对新兴市场变得挑剔了</blockquote>

(Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market investors are turning more selective as last year’s everything rally

Money Managers Say It’s Time to Get Picky in Emerging Markets<blockquote>基金经理表示是时候对新兴市场变得挑剔了</blockquote>

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Mexico, South Africa and Taiwan rank among the top choices as firms pare back their bullish bets for developing-nation assets, according to recent surveys.<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司（JPMorgan Asset Management）和道富银行（State Street Corp.）等基金经理使用的一些标准是对美国经济增长的敞口和大宗商品价格上涨的影响。墨西哥、南非和台湾是首选，因为企业削减了对发展中国家的看涨押注-根据最近的调查，国家资产。</blockquote>“There is still meaningful scope to generate returns within EM as long as investors are able to differentiate,” said Tai Hui, chief Asia market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management in Hong Kong.<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理驻香港首席亚洲市场策略师Tai Hui表示：“只要投资者能够实现差异化，新兴市场仍有很大的回报空间。”</blockquote>Investor enthusiasm toward emerging-market assets has waned this year as Covid-19 infections engulf nations from India to Brazil while Treasury yields push higher amid rising price pressures. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has slid almost 10% since its mid-February high and the Bloomberg Barclays EM Local Currency Government Bond Index is down 1.6% from its January peak.<blockquote>随着Covid-19感染席卷从印度到巴西等国家，投资者对新兴市场资产的热情今年有所减弱，而美国国债收益率在价格压力上升的情况下走高。摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数自2月中旬高点以来已下跌近10%，彭博巴克莱新兴市场本币政府债券指数较1月峰值下跌1.6%。</blockquote>U.S. Exposure<blockquote>美国风险敞口</blockquote>With a strong recovery in the world’s largest economy set to drive global growth this year, investors are looking for ways to piggy-back on that trend.<blockquote>随着全球最大经济体的强劲复苏将推动今年的全球增长，投资者正在寻找利用这一趋势的方法。</blockquote>That makes Mexican, Taiwanese and South Korean equities attractive given their strong ties to the U.S., said Shaniel Ramjee, a senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management in London, who helps manage $252 billion.<blockquote>伦敦百达资产管理公司(Pictet Asset Management)的高级投资经理沙尼尔·拉姆吉(Shaniel Ramjee)表示，鉴于墨西哥、台湾和韩国股市与美国的紧密联系，这使得它们具有吸引力。他帮助管理着2,520亿美元的资产。</blockquote>The Mexican stock benchmark has climbed 12% this year, easily beating the 1% rise in MSCI’s index of developing-nation shares. The South Korean and Taiwanese equivalents are also outperforming, though the latter saw a steep selloff last week amid jitters over a Covid-19 outbreak and pricey tech stocks.<blockquote>墨西哥股票基准今年已上涨12%，轻松超过MSCI发展中国家股票指数1%的涨幅。韩国和台湾的同类股票也表现出色，尽管后者上周因对Covid-19爆发和昂贵科技股的担忧而大幅抛售。</blockquote>Tech Dominance Haunts Taiwan in Global Selloff: Taking Stock<blockquote>全球抛售中科技主导地位困扰台湾：盘点</blockquote>Commodity Surge<blockquote>大宗商品大涨</blockquote>The connection to commodity prices is also boosting the Mexican peso, said Emily Weis, a macro strategist at State Street in Boston. A combination of stimulus measures, vaccine rollouts and supply shortages has pushed everything from copper to lumber and iron ore to multiyear highs or records.<blockquote>波士顿道富银行宏观策略师艾米丽·韦斯表示，与大宗商品价格的联系也提振了墨西哥比索。刺激措施、疫苗推出和供应短缺的综合作用已将从铜到木材和铁矿石的所有商品推至多年高点或纪录。</blockquote>“Improving commodity prices are still a net positive for EM commodities currencies given the sheer percentage of exports,” Weis said.<blockquote>韦斯表示：“考虑到出口所占的比例，大宗商品价格上涨对新兴市场大宗商品货币来说仍然是净利好。”</blockquote>The Russian ruble and South African rand also stand to benefit from the commodities rebound, according to Pictet’s Ramjee. The rand is the top emerging-market currency year-to-date thanks in part to South Africa’s exports of metals like platinum and iron ore, while the ruble has benefited from Russia’s oil exposure.<blockquote>Pictet的Ramjee表示，俄罗斯卢布和南非兰特也将从大宗商品反弹中受益。兰特是今年迄今为止最大的新兴市场货币，部分归功于南非铂金和铁矿石等金属的出口，而卢布则受益于俄罗斯的石油敞口。</blockquote>But perhaps nowhere is the power of the commodity boom more on display than Brazil, where exports of soybeans and iron ore have boosted the real.<blockquote>但也许没有哪个地方比巴西更能体现大宗商品繁荣的力量了，巴西的大豆和铁矿石出口提振了雷亚尔。</blockquote>Other nations haven’t been so lucky. Currencies in Colombia, Argentina, Peru and Turkey -- countries with some of the biggest increases in virus infections globally -- are among the worst performers in emerging markets this year.<blockquote>其他国家就没这么幸运了。哥伦比亚、阿根廷、秘鲁和土耳其这些全球病毒感染增幅最大的国家的货币是今年新兴市场中表现最差的国家之一。</blockquote>Yield Spike<blockquote>产量峰值</blockquote>Some investors say they’re sticking with local currency-denominated bonds that may be more insulated from American monetary policy.<blockquote>一些投资者表示，他们坚持持有本币计价的债券，这种债券可能更不受美国货币政策的影响。</blockquote>“Local markets are becoming more attractive,” said Shamaila Khan, the head of emerging-market debt at AllianceBernstein in New York, singling out South African, Russian and Mexican local bonds as among the most appealing. “Selectively, we are finding value.”<blockquote>“本地市场正变得更具吸引力，”纽约联博新兴市场债务主管沙迈拉·汗(Shamaila Khan)表示，他特别指出南非、俄罗斯和墨西哥的本地债券是最具吸引力的债券之一。“有选择地，我们正在寻找价值。”</blockquote>Rate Calls<blockquote>率评级</blockquote>The People’s Bank of China added 100 billion yuan ($15.5 billion) of one-year funds with its medium-term lending facility on Monday, matching the amount coming due in a move that was expected by analysts. The authorities kept the interest rate unchanged at 2.95%<blockquote>周一，中国人民银行通过中期借贷便利增加了1000亿元人民币（155亿美元）的一年期资金，与分析师预期的到期金额相匹配。当局维持利率在2.95%不变</blockquote>China’s recovery was a mixed bag in April, with industrial output and investment buoyed by strong exports and a hot property market, while retail sales missed forecasts, data on Monday showedThe PBOC will publish the one-year and five-year loan prime rates on ThursdayThe yuan has gained more than 1% this yearSouth Africa will probably keep its interest rate unchanged on Thursday amid an imminent third wave of Covid-19 infectionsData on Wednesday will probably show the nation’s headline consumer-price index rose 4.3% in April from a year earlier, though that’s still below the 4.5% midpoint of its target range this quarter<blockquote>周一的数据显示，中国4月份的复苏好坏参半，强劲的出口和火热的房地产市场提振了工业产出和投资，而零售销售则低于预期中国人民银行将于周四公布一年期和五年期贷款优惠利率人民币今年已上涨超过1%由于第三波Covid-19感染即将到来，南非周四可能会维持利率不变周三的数据可能会显示，该国4月份总体消费者价格指数同比上涨4.3%，但仍低于本季度4.5%的目标范围中点</blockquote>Chile Votes<blockquote>智利投票</blockquote>Chile’s right-wing government coalition likely secured fewer than a third of the seats on the Constitutional Assembly in this weekend’s historic elections, making it more difficult to block major changes and leaving independent and the opposition left-wing parties with more sway to rewrite the new charterBank of America Securities cautioned last week that treating the elections as a “non-event” may come with negative surprises as polls suggested a high share of undecided votersThe nation’s first-quarter gross domestic product data on Tuesday will be an indication if economic recovery is on track, with the consensus of economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting a 0.5% increase from a year earlier<blockquote>在本周末的历史性选举中，智利右翼政府联盟可能在制宪会议中获得不到三分之一的席位，这使得阻止重大变革变得更加困难，并使独立和反对党左翼政党在改写新宪章方面拥有更大的影响力美国证券银行上周警告称，将选举视为“非事件”可能会带来负面惊喜，因为民意调查显示很高比例的选民尚未做出决定。周二公布的该国第一季度国内生产总值数据将表明经济复苏是否走上正轨，彭博社调查的经济学家一致预计经济将较上年同期增长0.5%</blockquote>Biden-Moon Meeting<blockquote>拜登-文在寅会晤</blockquote>U.S. President Joe Biden will meet his South Korean counterpart Moon Jae-in on Friday, with North Korea high on the agenda. Moon will be only the second foreign leader since Biden’s inauguration to visit the White HouseSouth Korea’s won posted the worst decline in Asia this past month<blockquote>美国总统乔·拜登将于周五会见韩国总统文在寅，朝鲜问题是首要议题。文在寅将成为拜登就职以来第二位访问白宫的外国领导人。上个月，韩元出现亚洲最严重的跌幅</blockquote>Data and Events<blockquote>数据和事件</blockquote>Thailand’s economic contraction continued into the start of year, setting the stage for a further slump as the country now faces its worst wave of Covid-19 cases<blockquote>泰国的经济收缩持续到今年年初，为进一步衰退奠定了基础，因为该国目前正面临最严重的Covid-19病例浪潮</blockquote>Gross domestic product in the first quarter shrank 2.6% from a year earlier, the National Economic and Social Development Council said Monday, compared with a median estimate of -3.3% in a Bloomberg survey and improving from the prior quarter’s 4.2% contractionThailand will publish customs trade figures on Friday. The weaker baht may have improved the competitiveness of the country’s exports, which rose 8.5% in March from a year earlierThe Philippines on Monday may release March data for overseas workers’ remittances, a key source of foreign exchangeIndonesia will announce April trade figures on ThursdayTaiwan’s export orders for April are due on Thursday. The Taiwan dollar has outpaced all of its Asian peers this year amid buoyant demand for semiconductorsRussia’s 1Q GDP reading could beat consensus, with a slowing virus outbreak and rising oil output, according to Bloomberg EconomicsThe ruble has topped most peers in the past monthA reading of Peru’s March economic activity on Monday and first-quarter GDP data Thursday will probably show that the nation is recovering even as the rate lingers below pre-pandemic levelsIn Argentina, Bloomberg Economics expects a Thursday reading of March activity to show a near-recovery of February’s decline following the relaxation of several pandemic-induced restrictionsThe peso is the worst currency in Latin America this yearMexico will post its March retail sales on Friday, which traders will monitor for signs of recovering household demandBrazil’s Senate is set to continue its probe into the handling of the Covid-19 crisis, which could impact the political and electoral outlook, according to Bloomberg Economics. Any developments on tax reform plans will also be a key driverThe real, which outperformed all its regional peers over the past month, could see even more support as local investors trim long-standing bets against the currency.<blockquote>国家经济和社会发展委员会周一表示，第一季度国内生产总值同比萎缩2.6%，而彭博社调查的预估中值为-3.3%，较上一季度4.2%的收缩有所改善。周五海关贸易数据。泰铢走软可能提高了该国出口的竞争力，3月份出口同比增长8.5%菲律宾周一可能公布3月份海外工人汇款数据，这是外汇的主要来源印度尼西亚将于周四公布4月份贸易数据台湾4月份的出口订单将于周四到期。由于半导体需求旺盛，台币今年的涨幅超过了所有亚洲同行彭博经济研究称，随着病毒爆发放缓和石油产量上升，俄罗斯第一季度GDP数据可能会超出共识。卢布在过去一个月中超过了大多数同行。秘鲁3月份的经济活动周一和周四的第一季度GDP数据可能会显示该国正在复苏，尽管利率仍低于大流行前的水平在阿根廷，彭博经济研究预计，在放松几项大流行引发的限制后，周四的3月份活动数据将显示今年拉丁美洲最糟糕的货币比索将于周五公布，交易员将监测家庭需求复苏的迹象巴西参议院将继续调查Covid-19危机的处理情况，这可能会影响政治和选举前景，根据彭博经济。税收改革计划的任何进展也将是一个关键驱动力。雷亚尔在过去一个月的表现优于所有地区同行，随着当地投资者削减对货币的长期押注，雷亚尔可能会获得更多支持。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Money Managers Say It’s Time to Get Picky in Emerging Markets<blockquote>基金经理表示是时候对新兴市场变得挑剔了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMoney Managers Say It’s Time to Get Picky in Emerging Markets<blockquote>基金经理表示是时候对新兴市场变得挑剔了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBloomberg2021-05-17 13:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n(Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market investors are turning more selective as last year’s everything rally splinters under the weight of higher inflation expectations.<blockquote>（彭博社）——随着去年的一切反弹在通胀预期上升的重压下分崩离析，新兴市场投资者变得更加挑剔。</blockquote>Exposure to U.S. growth and the impact from higher commodity prices are some of the criteria used by money managers from JPMorgan Asset Management to State Street Corp. Mexico, South Africa and Taiwan rank among the top choices as firms pare back their bullish bets for developing-nation assets, according to recent surveys.<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司（JPMorgan Asset Management）和道富银行（State Street Corp.）等基金经理使用的一些标准是对美国经济增长的敞口和大宗商品价格上涨的影响。墨西哥、南非和台湾是首选，因为企业削减了对发展中国家的看涨押注-根据最近的调查，国家资产。</blockquote>“There is still meaningful scope to generate returns within EM as long as investors are able to differentiate,” said Tai Hui, chief Asia market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management in Hong Kong.<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理驻香港首席亚洲市场策略师Tai Hui表示：“只要投资者能够实现差异化，新兴市场仍有很大的回报空间。”</blockquote>Investor enthusiasm toward emerging-market assets has waned this year as Covid-19 infections engulf nations from India to Brazil while Treasury yields push higher amid rising price pressures. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has slid almost 10% since its mid-February high and the Bloomberg Barclays EM Local Currency Government Bond Index is down 1.6% from its January peak.<blockquote>随着Covid-19感染席卷从印度到巴西等国家，投资者对新兴市场资产的热情今年有所减弱，而美国国债收益率在价格压力上升的情况下走高。摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数自2月中旬高点以来已下跌近10%，彭博巴克莱新兴市场本币政府债券指数较1月峰值下跌1.6%。</blockquote>U.S. Exposure<blockquote>美国风险敞口</blockquote>With a strong recovery in the world’s largest economy set to drive global growth this year, investors are looking for ways to piggy-back on that trend.<blockquote>随着全球最大经济体的强劲复苏将推动今年的全球增长，投资者正在寻找利用这一趋势的方法。</blockquote>That makes Mexican, Taiwanese and South Korean equities attractive given their strong ties to the U.S., said Shaniel Ramjee, a senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management in London, who helps manage $252 billion.<blockquote>伦敦百达资产管理公司(Pictet Asset Management)的高级投资经理沙尼尔·拉姆吉(Shaniel Ramjee)表示，鉴于墨西哥、台湾和韩国股市与美国的紧密联系，这使得它们具有吸引力。他帮助管理着2,520亿美元的资产。</blockquote>The Mexican stock benchmark has climbed 12% this year, easily beating the 1% rise in MSCI’s index of developing-nation shares. The South Korean and Taiwanese equivalents are also outperforming, though the latter saw a steep selloff last week amid jitters over a Covid-19 outbreak and pricey tech stocks.<blockquote>墨西哥股票基准今年已上涨12%，轻松超过MSCI发展中国家股票指数1%的涨幅。韩国和台湾的同类股票也表现出色，尽管后者上周因对Covid-19爆发和昂贵科技股的担忧而大幅抛售。</blockquote>Tech Dominance Haunts Taiwan in Global Selloff: Taking Stock<blockquote>全球抛售中科技主导地位困扰台湾：盘点</blockquote>Commodity Surge<blockquote>大宗商品大涨</blockquote>The connection to commodity prices is also boosting the Mexican peso, said Emily Weis, a macro strategist at State Street in Boston. A combination of stimulus measures, vaccine rollouts and supply shortages has pushed everything from copper to lumber and iron ore to multiyear highs or records.<blockquote>波士顿道富银行宏观策略师艾米丽·韦斯表示，与大宗商品价格的联系也提振了墨西哥比索。刺激措施、疫苗推出和供应短缺的综合作用已将从铜到木材和铁矿石的所有商品推至多年高点或纪录。</blockquote>“Improving commodity prices are still a net positive for EM commodities currencies given the sheer percentage of exports,” Weis said.<blockquote>韦斯表示：“考虑到出口所占的比例，大宗商品价格上涨对新兴市场大宗商品货币来说仍然是净利好。”</blockquote>The Russian ruble and South African rand also stand to benefit from the commodities rebound, according to Pictet’s Ramjee. The rand is the top emerging-market currency year-to-date thanks in part to South Africa’s exports of metals like platinum and iron ore, while the ruble has benefited from Russia’s oil exposure.<blockquote>Pictet的Ramjee表示，俄罗斯卢布和南非兰特也将从大宗商品反弹中受益。兰特是今年迄今为止最大的新兴市场货币，部分归功于南非铂金和铁矿石等金属的出口，而卢布则受益于俄罗斯的石油敞口。</blockquote>But perhaps nowhere is the power of the commodity boom more on display than Brazil, where exports of soybeans and iron ore have boosted the real.<blockquote>但也许没有哪个地方比巴西更能体现大宗商品繁荣的力量了，巴西的大豆和铁矿石出口提振了雷亚尔。</blockquote>Other nations haven’t been so lucky. Currencies in Colombia, Argentina, Peru and Turkey -- countries with some of the biggest increases in virus infections globally -- are among the worst performers in emerging markets this year.<blockquote>其他国家就没这么幸运了。哥伦比亚、阿根廷、秘鲁和土耳其这些全球病毒感染增幅最大的国家的货币是今年新兴市场中表现最差的国家之一。</blockquote>Yield Spike<blockquote>产量峰值</blockquote>Some investors say they’re sticking with local currency-denominated bonds that may be more insulated from American monetary policy.<blockquote>一些投资者表示，他们坚持持有本币计价的债券，这种债券可能更不受美国货币政策的影响。</blockquote>“Local markets are becoming more attractive,” said Shamaila Khan, the head of emerging-market debt at AllianceBernstein in New York, singling out South African, Russian and Mexican local bonds as among the most appealing. “Selectively, we are finding value.”<blockquote>“本地市场正变得更具吸引力，”纽约联博新兴市场债务主管沙迈拉·汗(Shamaila Khan)表示，他特别指出南非、俄罗斯和墨西哥的本地债券是最具吸引力的债券之一。“有选择地，我们正在寻找价值。”</blockquote>Rate Calls<blockquote>率评级</blockquote>The People’s Bank of China added 100 billion yuan ($15.5 billion) of one-year funds with its medium-term lending facility on Monday, matching the amount coming due in a move that was expected by analysts. The authorities kept the interest rate unchanged at 2.95%<blockquote>周一，中国人民银行通过中期借贷便利增加了1000亿元人民币（155亿美元）的一年期资金，与分析师预期的到期金额相匹配。当局维持利率在2.95%不变</blockquote>China’s recovery was a mixed bag in April, with industrial output and investment buoyed by strong exports and a hot property market, while retail sales missed forecasts, data on Monday showedThe PBOC will publish the one-year and five-year loan prime rates on ThursdayThe yuan has gained more than 1% this yearSouth Africa will probably keep its interest rate unchanged on Thursday amid an imminent third wave of Covid-19 infectionsData on Wednesday will probably show the nation’s headline consumer-price index rose 4.3% in April from a year earlier, though that’s still below the 4.5% midpoint of its target range this quarter<blockquote>周一的数据显示，中国4月份的复苏好坏参半，强劲的出口和火热的房地产市场提振了工业产出和投资，而零售销售则低于预期中国人民银行将于周四公布一年期和五年期贷款优惠利率人民币今年已上涨超过1%由于第三波Covid-19感染即将到来，南非周四可能会维持利率不变周三的数据可能会显示，该国4月份总体消费者价格指数同比上涨4.3%，但仍低于本季度4.5%的目标范围中点</blockquote>Chile Votes<blockquote>智利投票</blockquote>Chile’s right-wing government coalition likely secured fewer than a third of the seats on the Constitutional Assembly in this weekend’s historic elections, making it more difficult to block major changes and leaving independent and the opposition left-wing parties with more sway to rewrite the new charterBank of America Securities cautioned last week that treating the elections as a “non-event” may come with negative surprises as polls suggested a high share of undecided votersThe nation’s first-quarter gross domestic product data on Tuesday will be an indication if economic recovery is on track, with the consensus of economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting a 0.5% increase from a year earlier<blockquote>在本周末的历史性选举中，智利右翼政府联盟可能在制宪会议中获得不到三分之一的席位，这使得阻止重大变革变得更加困难，并使独立和反对党左翼政党在改写新宪章方面拥有更大的影响力美国证券银行上周警告称，将选举视为“非事件”可能会带来负面惊喜，因为民意调查显示很高比例的选民尚未做出决定。周二公布的该国第一季度国内生产总值数据将表明经济复苏是否走上正轨，彭博社调查的经济学家一致预计经济将较上年同期增长0.5%</blockquote>Biden-Moon Meeting<blockquote>拜登-文在寅会晤</blockquote>U.S. President Joe Biden will meet his South Korean counterpart Moon Jae-in on Friday, with North Korea high on the agenda. Moon will be only the second foreign leader since Biden’s inauguration to visit the White HouseSouth Korea’s won posted the worst decline in Asia this past month<blockquote>美国总统乔·拜登将于周五会见韩国总统文在寅，朝鲜问题是首要议题。文在寅将成为拜登就职以来第二位访问白宫的外国领导人。上个月，韩元出现亚洲最严重的跌幅</blockquote>Data and Events<blockquote>数据和事件</blockquote>Thailand’s economic contraction continued into the start of year, setting the stage for a further slump as the country now faces its worst wave of Covid-19 cases<blockquote>泰国的经济收缩持续到今年年初，为进一步衰退奠定了基础，因为该国目前正面临最严重的Covid-19病例浪潮</blockquote>Gross domestic product in the first quarter shrank 2.6% from a year earlier, the National Economic and Social Development Council said Monday, compared with a median estimate of -3.3% in a Bloomberg survey and improving from the prior quarter’s 4.2% contractionThailand will publish customs trade figures on Friday. The weaker baht may have improved the competitiveness of the country’s exports, which rose 8.5% in March from a year earlierThe Philippines on Monday may release March data for overseas workers’ remittances, a key source of foreign exchangeIndonesia will announce April trade figures on ThursdayTaiwan’s export orders for April are due on Thursday. The Taiwan dollar has outpaced all of its Asian peers this year amid buoyant demand for semiconductorsRussia’s 1Q GDP reading could beat consensus, with a slowing virus outbreak and rising oil output, according to Bloomberg EconomicsThe ruble has topped most peers in the past monthA reading of Peru’s March economic activity on Monday and first-quarter GDP data Thursday will probably show that the nation is recovering even as the rate lingers below pre-pandemic levelsIn Argentina, Bloomberg Economics expects a Thursday reading of March activity to show a near-recovery of February’s decline following the relaxation of several pandemic-induced restrictionsThe peso is the worst currency in Latin America this yearMexico will post its March retail sales on Friday, which traders will monitor for signs of recovering household demandBrazil’s Senate is set to continue its probe into the handling of the Covid-19 crisis, which could impact the political and electoral outlook, according to Bloomberg Economics. Any developments on tax reform plans will also be a key driverThe real, which outperformed all its regional peers over the past month, could see even more support as local investors trim long-standing bets against the currency.<blockquote>国家经济和社会发展委员会周一表示，第一季度国内生产总值同比萎缩2.6%，而彭博社调查的预估中值为-3.3%，较上一季度4.2%的收缩有所改善。周五海关贸易数据。泰铢走软可能提高了该国出口的竞争力，3月份出口同比增长8.5%菲律宾周一可能公布3月份海外工人汇款数据，这是外汇的主要来源印度尼西亚将于周四公布4月份贸易数据台湾4月份的出口订单将于周四到期。由于半导体需求旺盛，台币今年的涨幅超过了所有亚洲同行彭博经济研究称，随着病毒爆发放缓和石油产量上升，俄罗斯第一季度GDP数据可能会超出共识。卢布在过去一个月中超过了大多数同行。秘鲁3月份的经济活动周一和周四的第一季度GDP数据可能会显示该国正在复苏，尽管利率仍低于大流行前的水平在阿根廷，彭博经济研究预计，在放松几项大流行引发的限制后，周四的3月份活动数据将显示今年拉丁美洲最糟糕的货币比索将于周五公布，交易员将监测家庭需求复苏的迹象巴西参议院将继续调查Covid-19危机的处理情况，这可能会影响政治和选举前景，根据彭博经济。税收改革计划的任何进展也将是一个关键驱动力。雷亚尔在过去一个月的表现优于所有地区同行，随着当地投资者削减对货币的长期押注，雷亚尔可能会获得更多支持。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/money-managers-time-picky-emerging-121015163.html\">Bloomberg</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/money-managers-time-picky-emerging-121015163.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176368726","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market investors are turning more selective as last year’s everything rally splinters under the weight of higher inflation expectations.Exposure to U.S. growth and the impact from higher commodity prices are some of the criteria used by money managers from JPMorgan Asset Management to State Street Corp. Mexico, South Africa and Taiwan rank among the top choices as firms pare back their bullish bets for developing-nation assets, according to recent surveys.“There is still meaningful scope to generate returns within EM as long as investors are able to differentiate,” said Tai Hui, chief Asia market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management in Hong Kong.Investor enthusiasm toward emerging-market assets has waned this year as Covid-19 infections engulf nations from India to Brazil while Treasury yields push higher amid rising price pressures. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has slid almost 10% since its mid-February high and the Bloomberg Barclays EM Local Currency Government Bond Index is down 1.6% from its January peak.U.S. ExposureWith a strong recovery in the world’s largest economy set to drive global growth this year, investors are looking for ways to piggy-back on that trend.That makes Mexican, Taiwanese and South Korean equities attractive given their strong ties to the U.S., said Shaniel Ramjee, a senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management in London, who helps manage $252 billion.The Mexican stock benchmark has climbed 12% this year, easily beating the 1% rise in MSCI’s index of developing-nation shares. The South Korean and Taiwanese equivalents are also outperforming, though the latter saw a steep selloff last week amid jitters over a Covid-19 outbreak and pricey tech stocks.Tech Dominance Haunts Taiwan in Global Selloff: Taking StockCommodity SurgeThe connection to commodity prices is also boosting the Mexican peso, said Emily Weis, a macro strategist at State Street in Boston. A combination of stimulus measures, vaccine rollouts and supply shortages has pushed everything from copper to lumber and iron ore to multiyear highs or records.“Improving commodity prices are still a net positive for EM commodities currencies given the sheer percentage of exports,” Weis said.The Russian ruble and South African rand also stand to benefit from the commodities rebound, according to Pictet’s Ramjee. The rand is the top emerging-market currency year-to-date thanks in part to South Africa’s exports of metals like platinum and iron ore, while the ruble has benefited from Russia’s oil exposure.But perhaps nowhere is the power of the commodity boom more on display than Brazil, where exports of soybeans and iron ore have boosted the real.Other nations haven’t been so lucky. Currencies in Colombia, Argentina, Peru and Turkey -- countries with some of the biggest increases in virus infections globally -- are among the worst performers in emerging markets this year.Yield SpikeSome investors say they’re sticking with local currency-denominated bonds that may be more insulated from American monetary policy.“Local markets are becoming more attractive,” said Shamaila Khan, the head of emerging-market debt at AllianceBernstein in New York, singling out South African, Russian and Mexican local bonds as among the most appealing. “Selectively, we are finding value.”Rate CallsThe People’s Bank of China added 100 billion yuan ($15.5 billion) of one-year funds with its medium-term lending facility on Monday, matching the amount coming due in a move that was expected by analysts. The authorities kept the interest rate unchanged at 2.95%China’s recovery was a mixed bag in April, with industrial output and investment buoyed by strong exports and a hot property market, while retail sales missed forecasts, data on Monday showedThe PBOC will publish the one-year and five-year loan prime rates on ThursdayThe yuan has gained more than 1% this yearSouth Africa will probably keep its interest rate unchanged on Thursday amid an imminent third wave of Covid-19 infectionsData on Wednesday will probably show the nation’s headline consumer-price index rose 4.3% in April from a year earlier, though that’s still below the 4.5% midpoint of its target range this quarterChile VotesChile’s right-wing government coalition likely secured fewer than a third of the seats on the Constitutional Assembly in this weekend’s historic elections, making it more difficult to block major changes and leaving independent and the opposition left-wing parties with more sway to rewrite the new charterBank of America Securities cautioned last week that treating the elections as a “non-event” may come with negative surprises as polls suggested a high share of undecided votersThe nation’s first-quarter gross domestic product data on Tuesday will be an indication if economic recovery is on track, with the consensus of economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting a 0.5% increase from a year earlierBiden-Moon MeetingU.S. President Joe Biden will meet his South Korean counterpart Moon Jae-in on Friday, with North Korea high on the agenda. Moon will be only the second foreign leader since Biden’s inauguration to visit the White HouseSouth Korea’s won posted the worst decline in Asia this past monthData and EventsThailand’s economic contraction continued into the start of year, setting the stage for a further slump as the country now faces its worst wave of Covid-19 casesGross domestic product in the first quarter shrank 2.6% from a year earlier, the National Economic and Social Development Council said Monday, compared with a median estimate of -3.3% in a Bloomberg survey and improving from the prior quarter’s 4.2% contractionThailand will publish customs trade figures on Friday. The weaker baht may have improved the competitiveness of the country’s exports, which rose 8.5% in March from a year earlierThe Philippines on Monday may release March data for overseas workers’ remittances, a key source of foreign exchangeIndonesia will announce April trade figures on ThursdayTaiwan’s export orders for April are due on Thursday. The Taiwan dollar has outpaced all of its Asian peers this year amid buoyant demand for semiconductorsRussia’s 1Q GDP reading could beat consensus, with a slowing virus outbreak and rising oil output, according to Bloomberg EconomicsThe ruble has topped most peers in the past monthA reading of Peru’s March economic activity on Monday and first-quarter GDP data Thursday will probably show that the nation is recovering even as the rate lingers below pre-pandemic levelsIn Argentina, Bloomberg Economics expects a Thursday reading of March activity to show a near-recovery of February’s decline following the relaxation of several pandemic-induced restrictionsThe peso is the worst currency in Latin America this yearMexico will post its March retail sales on Friday, which traders will monitor for signs of recovering household demandBrazil’s Senate is set to continue its probe into the handling of the Covid-19 crisis, which could impact the political and electoral outlook, according to Bloomberg Economics. Any developments on tax reform plans will also be a key driverThe real, which outperformed all its regional peers over the past month, could see even more support as local investors trim long-standing bets against the currency.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1872,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}