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2023-08-25

Fed Chair Powell Calls Inflation "Too High" and Warns That "We Are Prepared to Raise Rates Further"<blockquote>美联储主席评级通胀“过高”警告“我们准备进一步加息”</blockquote>

KEY POINTSWhile acknowledging that progress has been made, the central bank leader said inflation is still above where policymakers feel comfortable.The speech resembled remarks Powell made last year

Fed Chair Powell Calls Inflation "Too High" and Warns That "We Are Prepared to Raise Rates Further"<blockquote>美联储主席评级通胀“过高”警告“我们准备进一步加息”</blockquote>

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He noted that the Fed will remain flexible as it contemplates further moves, but gave little indication that it’s ready to start easing up anytime soon.<blockquote>尽管承认已经取得了进展，但这位央行领导人表示，通胀仍高于政策制定者感到舒适的水平。他指出，美联储在考虑进一步举措时将保持灵活性，但几乎没有迹象表明它准备很快开始宽松。</blockquote>“Although inflation has moved down from its peak — a welcome development — it remains too high,” Powell said in prepared remarks for his keynote address at the Kansas City Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.”<blockquote>鲍威尔在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔堪萨斯城联储年度务虚会上发表主题演讲时表示：“尽管通胀已从峰值回落——这是一个值得欢迎的进展——但它仍然过高。”“我们准备在适当的情况下进一步加息，并打算将政策维持在限制性水平，直到我们有信心通胀正在朝着我们的目标持续下降。”</blockquote>The speech resembled remarks Powell made last year at Jackson Hole, during which he warned that “some pain” was likely as the Fed continues its efforts to pull runaway inflation back down to its 2% goal.<blockquote>此次讲话类似于鲍威尔去年在杰克逊霍尔发表的讲话，他在讲话中警告称，随着美联储继续努力将失控的通胀拉回2%的目标，可能会出现“一些痛苦”。</blockquote>But inflation was running well ahead of its current pace back then. Regardless, Powell indicated it’s too soon to declare victory, even with data this summer running largely in the Fed’s favor.<blockquote>但当时的通货膨胀远远领先于目前的速度。无论如何，鲍威尔表示，现在宣布胜利还为时过早，尽管今年夏天的数据基本上对美联储有利。</blockquote>He acknowledged that risks are two-sided, with risks of doing both too much and too little.<blockquote>他承认，风险是双向的，既有做得太多的风险，也有做得太少的风险。</blockquote>“Doing too little could allow above-target inflation to become entrenched and ultimately require monetary policy to wring more persistent inflation from the economy at a high cost to employment,” he said. “Doing too much could also do unnecessary harm to the economy.”<blockquote>他表示：“做得太少可能会让高于目标的通胀根深蒂固，最终需要货币政策以高昂的就业成本从经济中挤出更持久的通胀。”“做得太多也可能对经济造成不必要的损害。”</blockquote>“As is often the case, we are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies,” he added.<blockquote>“通常情况下，我们在多云的天空下靠星星导航，”他补充道。</blockquote>Dow, S&amp;P, Nasdaq stay positive after Powell&#39;s Jackson Hole speech.<blockquote>道指、标普、纳斯达克在Powell Jackson Hole演讲后保持乐观。</blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1781615845\">A need to ‘proceed carefully’</h2>Powell’s remarks follow a series of 11 interest rate hikes that have pushed the Fed’s key interest rate to a target range of 5.25%-5.5%, the highest level in more than 22 years. In addition, the Fed has reduced its balance sheet to its lowest level in more than two years, a process which was seen about $960 billion worth of bonds roll off since June 2022.<blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1781615845\">需要“谨慎行事”</h2>鲍威尔发表此番言论之前，一系列11次加息已将美联储关键利率推至5.25%-5.5%的目标区间，为逾22年来的最高水平。此外，美联储已将资产负债表缩减至两年多来的最低水平，自2022年6月以来，这一过程中价值约9600亿美元的债券被冲销。</blockquote>Markets of late have been pricing in little chance of another hike at the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, but are pointing to about a 50-50 chance of a final increase at the November session.<blockquote>市场最近一直认为联邦公开市场委员会9月份会议上再次加息的可能性很小，但指出11月份会议上最终加息的可能性约为50-50。</blockquote>Powell provided no clear indication of which way he sees the decision going.<blockquote>鲍威尔没有明确表示他对这一决定的看法。</blockquote>“Given how far we have come, at upcoming meetings we are in a position to proceed carefully as we assess the incoming data and the evolving outlook and risks,” he said.<blockquote>他表示：“鉴于我们已经取得的进展，在即将举行的会议上，我们能够在评估收到的数据以及不断变化的前景和风险时谨慎行事。”</blockquote>However, he gave no sign that he’s even considering a rate cut.<blockquote>然而，他甚至没有表现出考虑降息的迹象。</blockquote>“At upcoming meetings, we will assess our progress based on the totality of the data and the evolving outlook and risks,” Powell said. “Based on this assessment, we will proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further or, instead, to hold the policy rate constant and await further data.”<blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“在即将举行的会议上，我们将根据全部数据以及不断变化的前景和风险来评估我们的进展。”“根据这一评估，我们将谨慎行事，决定是进一步收紧政策，还是保持政策利率不变并等待进一步的数据。”</blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1084289177\">Getting into details</h2>While last year’s speech was unusually brief, this time around Powell provided a little more detail into the factors that will go into policymaking.<blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1084289177\">深入细节</h2>虽然去年的演讲异常简短，但这一次鲍威尔提供了更多关于决策因素的细节。</blockquote>Specifically, he broke inflation into three key metrics and said the Fed is most focused on core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. He also reiterated that the Fed most closely follows the personal consumption expenditures price index, a Commerce Department measure, rather than the Labor Department’s consumer price index.<blockquote>具体来说，他将通胀分为三个关键指标，并表示美联储最关注的是核心通胀，其中不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格。他还重申，美联储最密切关注商务部衡量的个人消费支出价格指数，而不是劳工部的消费者价格指数。</blockquote>The three “broad components” of which he spoke entail goods, housing services such as rental costs and nonhousing services. He noted progress on all three, but said nonhousing is the most difficult to gauge as it is the least sensitive to interest rate adjustments. That category includes such things as health care, food services and transportation.<blockquote>他所说的三个“广泛组成部分”包括商品、租金等住房服务和非住房服务。他指出了这三个方面的进展，但表示非住房是最难衡量的，因为它对利率调整最不敏感。这一类别包括医疗保健、食品服务和交通等。</blockquote>“Twelve-month inflation in this sector has moved sideways since liftoff. Inflation measured over the past three and six months has declined, however, which is encouraging,” Powell said. “Given the size of this sector, some further progress here will be essential to restoring price stability.”<blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“自启动以来，该行业12个月的通胀率一直在横盘整理。然而，过去三个月和六个月的通胀率有所下降，这令人鼓舞。”“鉴于该行业的规模，进一步取得进展对于恢复价格稳定至关重要。”</blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1727308440\">No change to inflation goal</h2>In addition to the broader policy outlook, Powell honed in some areas that are key both to market and political considerations.<blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1727308440\">通胀目标不变</h2>除了更广泛的政策前景外，鲍威尔还在一些对市场和政治考虑都至关重要的领域进行了磨练。</blockquote>Some legislators, particularly on the Democratic side, have suggested the Fed raise its 2% inflation target, a move that would give it more policy flexibility and might deter further rate hikes. But Powell rejected that idea, as he has done in the past.<blockquote>一些立法者，尤其是民主党方面的立法者，建议美联储提高2%的通胀目标，此举将赋予其更大的政策灵活性，并可能阻止进一步加息。但鲍威尔拒绝了这一想法，就像他过去所做的那样。</blockquote>“Two percent is and will remain our inflation target,” he said.<blockquote>“百分之二是并将继续是我们的通胀目标，”他说。</blockquote>On another issue, Powell chose largely to stay away from the debate over what is the longer-run, or natural, rate of interest that is neither restrictive nor stimulative – the “r-star” rate of which he spoke at Jackson Hole in 2018.<blockquote>在另一个问题上，鲍威尔在很大程度上选择远离关于什么是既不限制性也不刺激性的长期或自然利率的辩论——他在2018年杰克逊霍尔谈到的“r星”利率。</blockquote>“We see the current stance of policy as restrictive, putting downward pressure on economic activity, hiring, and inflation,” he said. “But we cannot identify with certainty the neutral rate of interest, and thus there is always uncertainty about the precise level of monetary policy restraint.”<blockquote>他表示：“我们认为当前的政策立场是限制性的，给经济活动、招聘和通胀带来下行压力。”“但我们无法确定中性利率，因此货币政策约束的确切水平始终存在不确定性。”</blockquote>Powell also noted that the previous tightening moves likely haven’t made their way through the system yet, providing further caution for the future of policy.<blockquote>鲍威尔还指出，之前的紧缩举措可能尚未通过系统，这为未来的政策提供了进一步的谨慎。</blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2729931790\">Here is the full text of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech.</h2>Good morning. At last year’s Jackson Hole symposium, I delivered a brief, direct message. My remarks this year will be a bit longer, but the message is the same: It is the Fed’s job to bring inflation down to our 2 percent goal, and we will do so. We have tightened policy significantly over the past year. Although inflation has moved down from its peak—a welcome development—it remains too high. We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.<blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2729931790\">以下是美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的讲话全文。</h2>早上好。在去年的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上，我发表了一个简短而直接的信息。我今年的讲话会更长一些，但传达的信息是一样的：美联储的工作是将通胀率降至2%的目标，我们将这样做。过去一年，我们大幅收紧了政策。尽管通胀已经从峰值回落——这是一个值得欢迎的发展——但它仍然过高。我们准备在适当的情况下进一步加息，并打算将政策维持在限制性水平，直到我们确信通胀正在朝着我们的目标持续下降。</blockquote>Today I will review our progress so far and discuss the outlook and the uncertainties we face as we pursue our dual mandate goals. I will conclude with a summary of what this means for policy. Given how far we have come, at upcoming meetings we are in a position to proceed carefully as we assess the incoming data and the evolving outlook and risks.<blockquote>今天，我将回顾我们迄今为止的进展，并讨论我们在追求双重任务目标时面临的前景和不确定性。最后，我将总结这对政策意味着什么。鉴于我们已经取得的进展，在即将举行的会议上，我们能够在评估收到的数据以及不断变化的前景和风险时谨慎行事。</blockquote>The Decline in Inflation So Far The ongoing episode of high inflation initially emerged from a collision between very strong demand and pandemic-constrained supply. By the time the Federal Open Market Committee raised the policy rate in March 2022, it was clear that bringing down inflation would depend on both the unwinding of the unprecedented pandemic-related demand and supply distortions and on our tightening of monetary policy, which would slow the growth of aggregate demand, allowing supply time to catch up. While these two forces are now working together to bring down inflation, the process still has a long way to go, even with the more favorable recent readings.<blockquote>到目前为止通货膨胀的下降 持续的高通胀最初源于非常强劲的需求和大流行限制的供应之间的冲突。当联邦公开市场委员会于2022年3月提高政策利率时，很明显，降低通胀将取决于消除前所未有的与大流行相关的需求和供应扭曲，以及我们收紧货币政策，这将减缓总需求的增长，使供应有时间赶上。虽然这两种力量现在正在共同努力降低通胀，但即使最近的读数更有利，这一过程仍有很长的路要走。</blockquote>On a 12-month basis, U.S. total, or “headline,” PCE (personal consumption expenditures) inflation peaked at 7 percent in June 2022 and declined to 3.3 percent as of July, following a trajectory roughly in line with global trends (figure 1, panel A).1 The effects of Russia’s war against Ukraine have been a primary driver of the changes in headline inflation around the world since early 2022. Headline inflation is what households and businesses experience most directly, so this decline is very good news. But food and energy prices are influenced by global factors that remain volatile, and can provide a misleading signal of where inflation is headed. In my remaining comments, I will focus on core PCE inflation, which omits the food and energy components.<blockquote>以12个月为基础，美国PCE（个人消费支出）总通胀率（即“总体”）于2022年6月达到7%的峰值，截至7月降至3.3%，其轨迹大致与全球趋势一致（图1，面板A）。1自2022年初以来，俄罗斯对乌克兰战争的影响一直是全球总体通胀变化的主要驱动因素。总体通胀是家庭和企业最直接经历的，因此这种下降是非常好的消息。但食品和能源价格受到持续波动的全球因素的影响，并可能提供通胀走向的误导性信号。在我剩下的评论中，我将重点关注核心PCE通胀，其中省略了食品和能源部分。</blockquote>On a 12-month basis, core PCE inflation peaked at 5.4 percent in February 2022 and declined gradually to 4.3 percent in July (figure 1, panel B). The lower monthly readings for core inflation in June and July were welcome, but two months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal. We can’t yet know the extent to which these lower readings will continue or where underlying inflation will settle over coming quarters. Twelve-month core inflation is still elevated, and there is substantial further ground to cover to get back to price stability.<blockquote>在12个月的基础上，核心PCE通胀率在2022年2月达到5.4%的峰值，并在7月逐渐下降至4.3%（图1，面板B）。6月和7月核心通胀月度读数较低值得欢迎，但两个月的良好数据只是建立通胀正在向我们的目标持续下降的信心的开始。我们还不知道这些较低的读数将在多大程度上持续，也不知道未来几个季度潜在通胀将在多大程度上稳定下来。十二个月的核心通胀仍然很高，要恢复价格稳定还有很大的空间。</blockquote>To understand the factors that will likely drive further progress, it is useful to separately examine the three broad components of core PCE inflation—inflation for goods, for housing services, and for all other services, sometimes referred to as nonhousing services.<blockquote>为了了解可能推动进一步进展的因素，分别检查核心PCE通胀的三个广泛组成部分是有用的——商品通胀、住房服务通胀和所有其他服务（有时称为非住房服务）的通胀。</blockquote>Core goods inflation has fallen sharply, particularly for durable goods, as both tighter monetary policy and the slow unwinding of supply and demand dislocations are bringing it down. The motor vehicle sector provides a good illustration. Earlier in the pandemic, demand for vehicles rose sharply, supported by low interest rates, fiscal transfers, curtailed spending on in-person services, and shifts in preference away from using public transportation and from living in cities. But because of a shortage of semiconductors, vehicle supply actually fell. Vehicle prices spiked, and a large pool of pent-up demand emerged.<blockquote>核心商品通胀大幅下降，尤其是耐用品，因为收紧的货币政策和供需错位的缓慢缓解都在降低通胀。汽车行业提供了一个很好的例子。在疫情早些时候，在低利率、财政转移支付、面对面服务支出减少以及人们不再使用公共交通和居住在城市的支持下，对汽车的需求急剧上升。但由于半导体短缺，汽车供应实际上下降了。汽车价格飙升，大量被压抑的需求出现了。</blockquote>As the pandemic and its effects have waned, production and inventories have grown, and supply has improved. At the same time, higher interest rates have weighed on demand. Interest rates on auto loans have nearly doubled since early last year, and customers report feeling the effect of higher rates on affordability. On net, motor vehicle inflation has declined sharply because of the combined effects of these supply and demand factors.<blockquote>随着疫情及其影响减弱，生产和库存增长，供应有所改善。与此同时，利率上升拖累了需求。自去年初以来，汽车贷款利率几乎翻了一番，客户报告称感受到了利率上升对负担能力的影响。从净值来看，由于这些供需因素的综合影响，机动车通胀大幅下降。</blockquote>Similar dynamics are playing out for core goods inflation overall. As they do, the effects of monetary restraint should show through more fully over time. Core goods prices fell the past two months, but on a 12-month basis, core goods inflation remains well above its pre-pandemic level. Sustained progress is needed, and restrictive monetary policy is called for to achieve that progress.<blockquote>核心商品通胀总体上也出现了类似的动态。正如他们所做的那样，随着时间的推移，货币紧缩的效果应该会更加充分地显现出来。过去两个月核心商品价格下跌，但以12个月为基础，核心商品通胀仍远高于大流行前的水平。需要持续的进展，需要限制性货币政策来实现这一进展。</blockquote>In the highly interest-sensitive housing sector, the effects of monetary policy became apparent soon after liftoff. Mortgage rates doubled over the course of 2022, causing housing starts and sales to fall and house price growth to plummet. Growth in market rents soon peaked and then steadily declined.<blockquote>在对利率高度敏感的房地产行业，货币政策的效果在起飞后不久就变得明显。抵押贷款利率在2022年翻了一番，导致新屋开工和销售下降，房价增长暴跌。市场租金的增长很快达到顶峰，然后稳步下降。</blockquote>Measured housing services inflation lagged these changes, as is typical, but has recently begun to fall. This inflation metric reflects rents paid by all tenants, as well as estimates of the equivalent rents that could be earned from homes that are owner occupied.4 Because leases turn over slowly, it takes time for a decline in market rent growth to work its way into the overall inflation measure. The market rent slowdown has only recently begun to show through to that measure. The slowing growth in rents for new leases over roughly the past year can be thought of as “in the pipeline” and will affect measured housing services inflation over the coming year. Going forward, if market rent growth settles near pre-pandemic levels, housing services inflation should decline toward its pre-pandemic level as well. We will continue to watch the market rent data closely for a signal of the upside and downside risks to housing services inflation.<blockquote>通常情况下，衡量的住房服务通胀落后于这些变化，但最近开始下降。这一通胀指标反映了所有租户支付的租金，以及对自住房屋可赚取的同等租金的估计。4由于租约周转缓慢，市场租金增长的下降需要时间才能发挥作用进入整体通胀指标。市场租金放缓直到最近才开始体现出来。大约过去一年新租约租金增长放缓可以被认为是“正在酝酿中”，并将影响来年的住房服务通胀。展望未来，如果市场租金增长稳定在大流行前的水平附近，住房服务通胀也应该会下降到大流行前的水平。我们将继续密切关注市场租金数据，以寻找住房服务通胀上行和下行风险的信号。</blockquote>The final category, nonhousing services, accounts for over half of the core PCE index and includes a broad range of services, such as health care, food services, transportation, and accommodations. Twelve-month inflation in this sector has moved sideways since liftoff. Inflation measured over the past three and six months has declined, however, which is encouraging. Part of the reason for the modest decline of nonhousing services inflation so far is that many of these services were less affected by global supply chain bottlenecks and are generally thought to be less interest sensitive than other sectors such as housing or durable goods. Production of these services is also relatively labor intensive, and the labor market remains tight. Given the size of this sector, some further progress here will be essential to restoring price stability. Over time, restrictive monetary policy will help bring aggregate supply and demand back into better balance, reducing inflationary pressures in this key sector.<blockquote>最后一类是非住房服务，占核心PCE指数的一半以上，包括广泛的服务，如医疗保健、食品服务、交通和住宿。自启动以来，该行业12个月的通胀一直横盘整理。然而，过去三个月和六个月的通货膨胀率有所下降，这令人鼓舞。到目前为止，非住房服务通胀温和下降的部分原因是，其中许多服务受全球供应链瓶颈的影响较小，并且通常被认为比住房或耐用品等其他行业对利率的敏感性较低。这些服务的生产也相对劳动密集型，劳动力市场仍然紧张。鉴于这一部门的规模，这方面的进一步进展对于恢复价格稳定至关重要。随着时间的推移，限制性货币政策将有助于使总供需恢复更好的平衡，从而减轻这一关键部门的通胀压力。</blockquote>The Outlook Turning to the outlook, although further unwinding of pandemic-related distortions should continue to put some downward pressure on inflation, restrictive monetary policy will likely play an increasingly important role. Getting inflation sustainably back down to 2 percent is expected to require a period of below-trend economic growth as well as some softening in labor market conditions.<blockquote>展望 展望前景，尽管进一步消除与大流行相关的扭曲应该会继续给通胀带来一些下行压力，但限制性货币政策可能会发挥越来越重要的作用。预计将通胀率持续回落至2%需要一段时间的低于趋势的经济增长以及劳动力市场状况的一定程度疲软。</blockquote>Economic growth Restrictive monetary policy has tightened financial conditions, supporting the expectation of below-trend growth.5 Since last year’s symposium, the two-year real yield is up about 250 basis points, and longer-term real yields are higher as well—by nearly 150 basis points.6 Beyond changes in interest rates, bank lending standards have tightened, and loan growth has slowed sharply.7 Such a tightening of broad financial conditions typically contributes to a slowing in the growth of economic activity, and there is evidence of that in this cycle as well. For example, growth in industrial production has slowed, and the amount spent on residential investment has declined in each of the past five quarters.<blockquote>经济增长 限制性货币政策收紧了金融状况，支持了低于趋势增长的预期。5自去年的研讨会以来，两年期实际收益率上升了约250个基点，长期实际收益率也更高，上升了近150个基点。6除了利率变化之外，银行贷款标准也收紧了，贷款增长急剧放缓。7广泛金融状况的这种收紧通常会导致经济活动增长放缓，在本周期中也有证据表明这一点。例如，工业生产增长放缓，住宅投资支出在过去五个季度中每个季度都有所下降。</blockquote>But we are attentive to signs that the economy may not be cooling as expected. So far this year, GDP (gross domestic product) growth has come in above expectations and above its longer-run trend, and recent readings on consumer spending have been especially robust. In addition, after decelerating sharply over the past 18 months, the housing sector is showing signs of picking back up. Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy.<blockquote>但我们关注经济可能不会如预期般降温的迹象。今年到目前为止，GDP（国内生产总值）增长高于预期，也高于长期趋势，最近的消费者支出数据尤其强劲。此外，在过去18个月大幅减速后，房地产行业正显示出回升的迹象。持续高于趋势增长的更多证据可能会使通胀的进一步进展面临风险，并可能需要进一步收紧货币政策。</blockquote>The labor market The rebalancing of the labor market has continued over the past year but remains incomplete. Labor supply has improved, driven by stronger participation among workers aged 25 to 54 and by an increase in immigration back toward pre-pandemic levels. Indeed, the labor force participation rate of women in their prime working years reached an all-time high in June. Demand for labor has moderated as well. Job openings remain high but are trending lower. Payroll job growth has slowed significantly. Total hours worked has been flat over the past six months, and the average workweek has declined to the lower end of its pre-pandemic range, reflecting a gradual normalization in labor market conditions.<blockquote>劳动力市场 过去一年，劳动力市场的再平衡仍在继续，但仍未完成。劳动力供应有所改善，这得益于25至54岁工人的参与率提高以及移民数量恢复到大流行前的水平。事实上，处于黄金工作年龄的女性的劳动力参与率在6月份达到了历史最高水平。对劳动力的需求也有所放缓。职位空缺仍然很高，但呈下降趋势。就业增长明显放缓。过去六个月，总工作时间持平，平均每周工作时间已降至大流行前范围的下限，反映出劳动力市场状况逐渐正常化。</blockquote>This rebalancing has eased wage pressures. Wage growth across a range of measures continues to slow, albeit gradually. While nominal wage growth must ultimately slow to a rate that is consistent with 2 percent inflation, what matters for households is real wage growth. Even as nominal wage growth has slowed, real wage growth has been increasing as inflation has fallen.<blockquote>这种再平衡缓解了工资压力。一系列指标的工资增长继续放缓，尽管是逐渐放缓。虽然名义工资增长最终必须放缓至与2%通胀率一致的速度，但对家庭来说重要的是实际工资增长。尽管名义工资增长放缓，但随着通胀下降，实际工资增长一直在增加。</blockquote>We expect this labor market rebalancing to continue. Evidence that the tightness in the labor market is no longer easing could also call for a monetary policy response.<blockquote>我们预计劳动力市场的再平衡将持续下去。劳动力市场紧张状况不再缓解的证据也可能为货币政策应对提供看涨期权。</blockquote>Uncertainty and Risk Management along the Path Forward<blockquote>前进道路上的不确定性和风险管理</blockquote>Two percent is and will remain our inflation target. We are committed to achieving and sustaining a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to that level over time. It is challenging, of course, to know in real time when such a stance has been achieved. There are some challenges that are common to all tightening cycles. For example, real interest rates are now positive and well above mainstream estimates of the neutral policy rate. We see the current stance of policy as restrictive, putting downward pressure on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. But we cannot identify with certainty the neutral rate of interest, and thus there is always uncertainty about the precise level of monetary policy restraint.<blockquote>百分之二是并将继续是我们的通胀目标。我们致力于实现并维持足够严格的货币政策立场，以随着时间的推移将通胀降至该水平。当然，实时知道何时实现了这样的立场是具有挑战性的。所有紧缩周期都面临一些共同的挑战。例如，实际利率现在为正，远高于中性政策利率的主流估计。我们认为当前的政策立场是限制性的，给经济活动、就业和通胀带来下行压力。但我们无法确定中性利率，因此货币政策约束的确切水平总是存在不确定性。</blockquote>That assessment is further complicated by uncertainty about the duration of the lags with which monetary tightening affects economic activity and especially inflation. Since the symposium a year ago, the Committee has raised the policy rate by 300 basis points, including 100 basis points over the past seven months. And we have substantially reduced the size of our securities holdings. The wide range of estimates of these lags suggests that there may be significant further drag in the pipeline.<blockquote>由于货币紧缩影响经济活动（尤其是通胀）的滞后持续时间的不确定性，这一评估变得更加复杂。自一年前的座谈会以来，该委员会已将政策利率上调了300个基点，其中过去7个月上调了100个基点。我们大幅减少了证券持有规模。对这些滞后的广泛估计表明，管道中可能存在重大的进一步阻力。</blockquote>Beyond these traditional sources of policy uncertainty, the supply and demand dislocations unique to this cycle raise further complications through their effects on inflation and labor market dynamics. For example, so far, job openings have declined substantially without increasing unemployment—a highly welcome but historically unusual result that appears to reflect large excess demand for labor. In addition, there is evidence that inflation has become more responsive to labor market tightness than was the case in recent decades. These changing dynamics may or may not persist, and this uncertainty underscores the need for agile policymaking.<blockquote>除了这些政策不确定性的传统来源之外，本周期特有的供需错位通过对通胀和劳动力市场动态的影响进一步加剧了复杂性。例如，到目前为止，职位空缺大幅下降，而失业率却没有增加——这是一个非常受欢迎但历史上不寻常的结果，似乎反映了对劳动力的大量过剩需求。此外，有证据表明，与近几十年来相比，通胀对劳动力市场紧张的反应更加强烈。这些不断变化的动态可能会持续，也可能不会持续，这种不确定性强调了敏捷决策的必要性。</blockquote>These uncertainties, both old and new, complicate our task of balancing the risk of tightening monetary policy too much against the risk of tightening too little. Doing too little could allow above-target inflation to become entrenched and ultimately require monetary policy to wring more persistent inflation from the economy at a high cost to employment. Doing too much could also do unnecessary harm to the economy.<blockquote>这些新旧不确定因素使我们平衡货币政策过度紧缩的风险和紧缩过少的风险的任务变得复杂。做得太少可能会让高于目标的通胀根深蒂固，并最终需要货币政策以高昂的就业成本从经济中挤出更持久的通胀。做得太多也可能对经济造成不必要的损害。</blockquote>Conclusion As is often the case, we are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies. In such circumstances, risk-management considerations are critical. At upcoming meetings, we will assess our progress based on the totality of the data and the evolving outlook and risks. Based on this assessment, we will proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further or, instead, to hold the policy rate constant and await further data. Restoring price stability is essential to achieving both sides of our dual mandate. We will need price stability to achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.<blockquote>结论 通常情况下，我们在多云的天空下靠星星导航。在这种情况下，风险管理考虑至关重要。在即将举行的会议上，我们将根据全部数据以及不断变化的前景和风险评估我们的进展。基于这一评估，我们将谨慎行事，决定是进一步收紧政策，还是保持政策利率不变并等待进一步的数据。恢复价格稳定对于实现我们的双重使命至关重要。我们将需要价格稳定，以实现劳动力市场持续强劲的状况，使所有人受益。</blockquote>We will keep at it until the job is done.<blockquote>我们将坚持下去，直到工作完成。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Chair Powell Calls Inflation \"Too High\" and Warns That \"We Are Prepared to Raise Rates Further\"<blockquote>美联储主席评级通胀“过高”警告“我们准备进一步加息”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Chair Powell Calls Inflation \"Too High\" and Warns That \"We Are Prepared to Raise Rates Further\"<blockquote>美联储主席评级通胀“过高”警告“我们准备进一步加息”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\nTiger Newspress \n2023-08-25 22:06\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>KEY POINTS<blockquote><html><head></head><body>要点</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>While acknowledging that progress has been made, the central bank leader said inflation is still above where policymakers feel comfortable.<blockquote><ul><li>尽管承认已经取得了进展，但这位央行领导人表示，通胀仍高于政策制定者感到舒适的水平。</li></ul></blockquote></li><li>The speech resembled remarks Powell made last year at Jackson Hole, during which he warned that “some pain” was likely as the Fed continues its efforts to pull runaway inflation back down to its 2% goal.<blockquote><li>此次讲话类似于鲍威尔去年在杰克逊霍尔发表的讲话，他在讲话中警告称，随着美联储继续努力将失控的通胀拉回2%的目标，可能会出现“一些痛苦”。</li></blockquote></li><li>A strong economy and decelerating inflation also give the Fed room to “proceed carefully” at upcoming meetings.<blockquote><li>强劲的经济和放缓的通胀也给了美联储在即将召开的会议上“谨慎行事”的空间。</li></blockquote></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65d48fe70b5f8a345e984a371a9e677a\" alt=\"\"/>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday called for more vigilance in the fight against inflation, warning that additional interest rate increases could be yet to come.<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周五呼吁在对抗通胀方面提高警惕，并警告称可能还不会进一步加息。</blockquote>While acknowledging that progress has been made, the central bank leader said inflation is still above where policymakers feel comfortable. He noted that the Fed will remain flexible as it contemplates further moves, but gave little indication that it’s ready to start easing up anytime soon.<blockquote>尽管承认已经取得了进展，但这位央行领导人表示，通胀仍高于政策制定者感到舒适的水平。他指出，美联储在考虑进一步举措时将保持灵活性，但几乎没有迹象表明它准备很快开始宽松。</blockquote>“Although inflation has moved down from its peak — a welcome development — it remains too high,” Powell said in prepared remarks for his keynote address at the Kansas City Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.”<blockquote>鲍威尔在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔堪萨斯城联储年度务虚会上发表主题演讲时表示：“尽管通胀已从峰值回落——这是一个值得欢迎的进展——但它仍然过高。”“我们准备在适当的情况下进一步加息，并打算将政策维持在限制性水平，直到我们有信心通胀正在朝着我们的目标持续下降。”</blockquote>The speech resembled remarks Powell made last year at Jackson Hole, during which he warned that “some pain” was likely as the Fed continues its efforts to pull runaway inflation back down to its 2% goal.<blockquote>此次讲话类似于鲍威尔去年在杰克逊霍尔发表的讲话，他在讲话中警告称，随着美联储继续努力将失控的通胀拉回2%的目标，可能会出现“一些痛苦”。</blockquote>But inflation was running well ahead of its current pace back then. Regardless, Powell indicated it’s too soon to declare victory, even with data this summer running largely in the Fed’s favor.<blockquote>但当时的通货膨胀远远领先于目前的速度。无论如何，鲍威尔表示，现在宣布胜利还为时过早，尽管今年夏天的数据基本上对美联储有利。</blockquote>He acknowledged that risks are two-sided, with risks of doing both too much and too little.<blockquote>他承认，风险是双向的，既有做得太多的风险，也有做得太少的风险。</blockquote>“Doing too little could allow above-target inflation to become entrenched and ultimately require monetary policy to wring more persistent inflation from the economy at a high cost to employment,” he said. “Doing too much could also do unnecessary harm to the economy.”<blockquote>他表示：“做得太少可能会让高于目标的通胀根深蒂固，最终需要货币政策以高昂的就业成本从经济中挤出更持久的通胀。”“做得太多也可能对经济造成不必要的损害。”</blockquote>“As is often the case, we are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies,” he added.<blockquote>“通常情况下，我们在多云的天空下靠星星导航，”他补充道。</blockquote>Dow, S&amp;P, Nasdaq stay positive after Powell&#39;s Jackson Hole speech.<blockquote>道指、标普、纳斯达克在Powell Jackson Hole演讲后保持乐观。</blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1781615845\">A need to ‘proceed carefully’</h2>Powell’s remarks follow a series of 11 interest rate hikes that have pushed the Fed’s key interest rate to a target range of 5.25%-5.5%, the highest level in more than 22 years. In addition, the Fed has reduced its balance sheet to its lowest level in more than two years, a process which was seen about $960 billion worth of bonds roll off since June 2022.<blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1781615845\">需要“谨慎行事”</h2>鲍威尔发表此番言论之前，一系列11次加息已将美联储关键利率推至5.25%-5.5%的目标区间，为逾22年来的最高水平。此外，美联储已将资产负债表缩减至两年多来的最低水平，自2022年6月以来，这一过程中价值约9600亿美元的债券被冲销。</blockquote>Markets of late have been pricing in little chance of another hike at the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, but are pointing to about a 50-50 chance of a final increase at the November session.<blockquote>市场最近一直认为联邦公开市场委员会9月份会议上再次加息的可能性很小，但指出11月份会议上最终加息的可能性约为50-50。</blockquote>Powell provided no clear indication of which way he sees the decision going.<blockquote>鲍威尔没有明确表示他对这一决定的看法。</blockquote>“Given how far we have come, at upcoming meetings we are in a position to proceed carefully as we assess the incoming data and the evolving outlook and risks,” he said.<blockquote>他表示：“鉴于我们已经取得的进展，在即将举行的会议上，我们能够在评估收到的数据以及不断变化的前景和风险时谨慎行事。”</blockquote>However, he gave no sign that he’s even considering a rate cut.<blockquote>然而，他甚至没有表现出考虑降息的迹象。</blockquote>“At upcoming meetings, we will assess our progress based on the totality of the data and the evolving outlook and risks,” Powell said. “Based on this assessment, we will proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further or, instead, to hold the policy rate constant and await further data.”<blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“在即将举行的会议上，我们将根据全部数据以及不断变化的前景和风险来评估我们的进展。”“根据这一评估，我们将谨慎行事，决定是进一步收紧政策，还是保持政策利率不变并等待进一步的数据。”</blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1084289177\">Getting into details</h2>While last year’s speech was unusually brief, this time around Powell provided a little more detail into the factors that will go into policymaking.<blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1084289177\">深入细节</h2>虽然去年的演讲异常简短，但这一次鲍威尔提供了更多关于决策因素的细节。</blockquote>Specifically, he broke inflation into three key metrics and said the Fed is most focused on core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. He also reiterated that the Fed most closely follows the personal consumption expenditures price index, a Commerce Department measure, rather than the Labor Department’s consumer price index.<blockquote>具体来说，他将通胀分为三个关键指标，并表示美联储最关注的是核心通胀，其中不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格。他还重申，美联储最密切关注商务部衡量的个人消费支出价格指数，而不是劳工部的消费者价格指数。</blockquote>The three “broad components” of which he spoke entail goods, housing services such as rental costs and nonhousing services. He noted progress on all three, but said nonhousing is the most difficult to gauge as it is the least sensitive to interest rate adjustments. That category includes such things as health care, food services and transportation.<blockquote>他所说的三个“广泛组成部分”包括商品、租金等住房服务和非住房服务。他指出了这三个方面的进展，但表示非住房是最难衡量的，因为它对利率调整最不敏感。这一类别包括医疗保健、食品服务和交通等。</blockquote>“Twelve-month inflation in this sector has moved sideways since liftoff. Inflation measured over the past three and six months has declined, however, which is encouraging,” Powell said. “Given the size of this sector, some further progress here will be essential to restoring price stability.”<blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“自启动以来，该行业12个月的通胀率一直在横盘整理。然而，过去三个月和六个月的通胀率有所下降，这令人鼓舞。”“鉴于该行业的规模，进一步取得进展对于恢复价格稳定至关重要。”</blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1727308440\">No change to inflation goal</h2>In addition to the broader policy outlook, Powell honed in some areas that are key both to market and political considerations.<blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1727308440\">通胀目标不变</h2>除了更广泛的政策前景外，鲍威尔还在一些对市场和政治考虑都至关重要的领域进行了磨练。</blockquote>Some legislators, particularly on the Democratic side, have suggested the Fed raise its 2% inflation target, a move that would give it more policy flexibility and might deter further rate hikes. But Powell rejected that idea, as he has done in the past.<blockquote>一些立法者，尤其是民主党方面的立法者，建议美联储提高2%的通胀目标，此举将赋予其更大的政策灵活性，并可能阻止进一步加息。但鲍威尔拒绝了这一想法，就像他过去所做的那样。</blockquote>“Two percent is and will remain our inflation target,” he said.<blockquote>“百分之二是并将继续是我们的通胀目标，”他说。</blockquote>On another issue, Powell chose largely to stay away from the debate over what is the longer-run, or natural, rate of interest that is neither restrictive nor stimulative – the “r-star” rate of which he spoke at Jackson Hole in 2018.<blockquote>在另一个问题上，鲍威尔在很大程度上选择远离关于什么是既不限制性也不刺激性的长期或自然利率的辩论——他在2018年杰克逊霍尔谈到的“r星”利率。</blockquote>“We see the current stance of policy as restrictive, putting downward pressure on economic activity, hiring, and inflation,” he said. “But we cannot identify with certainty the neutral rate of interest, and thus there is always uncertainty about the precise level of monetary policy restraint.”<blockquote>他表示：“我们认为当前的政策立场是限制性的，给经济活动、招聘和通胀带来下行压力。”“但我们无法确定中性利率，因此货币政策约束的确切水平始终存在不确定性。”</blockquote>Powell also noted that the previous tightening moves likely haven’t made their way through the system yet, providing further caution for the future of policy.<blockquote>鲍威尔还指出，之前的紧缩举措可能尚未通过系统，这为未来的政策提供了进一步的谨慎。</blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2729931790\">Here is the full text of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech.</h2>Good morning. At last year’s Jackson Hole symposium, I delivered a brief, direct message. My remarks this year will be a bit longer, but the message is the same: It is the Fed’s job to bring inflation down to our 2 percent goal, and we will do so. We have tightened policy significantly over the past year. Although inflation has moved down from its peak—a welcome development—it remains too high. We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.<blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2729931790\">以下是美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的讲话全文。</h2>早上好。在去年的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上，我发表了一个简短而直接的信息。我今年的讲话会更长一些，但传达的信息是一样的：美联储的工作是将通胀率降至2%的目标，我们将这样做。过去一年，我们大幅收紧了政策。尽管通胀已经从峰值回落——这是一个值得欢迎的发展——但它仍然过高。我们准备在适当的情况下进一步加息，并打算将政策维持在限制性水平，直到我们确信通胀正在朝着我们的目标持续下降。</blockquote>Today I will review our progress so far and discuss the outlook and the uncertainties we face as we pursue our dual mandate goals. I will conclude with a summary of what this means for policy. Given how far we have come, at upcoming meetings we are in a position to proceed carefully as we assess the incoming data and the evolving outlook and risks.<blockquote>今天，我将回顾我们迄今为止的进展，并讨论我们在追求双重任务目标时面临的前景和不确定性。最后，我将总结这对政策意味着什么。鉴于我们已经取得的进展，在即将举行的会议上，我们能够在评估收到的数据以及不断变化的前景和风险时谨慎行事。</blockquote>The Decline in Inflation So Far The ongoing episode of high inflation initially emerged from a collision between very strong demand and pandemic-constrained supply. By the time the Federal Open Market Committee raised the policy rate in March 2022, it was clear that bringing down inflation would depend on both the unwinding of the unprecedented pandemic-related demand and supply distortions and on our tightening of monetary policy, which would slow the growth of aggregate demand, allowing supply time to catch up. While these two forces are now working together to bring down inflation, the process still has a long way to go, even with the more favorable recent readings.<blockquote>到目前为止通货膨胀的下降 持续的高通胀最初源于非常强劲的需求和大流行限制的供应之间的冲突。当联邦公开市场委员会于2022年3月提高政策利率时，很明显，降低通胀将取决于消除前所未有的与大流行相关的需求和供应扭曲，以及我们收紧货币政策，这将减缓总需求的增长，使供应有时间赶上。虽然这两种力量现在正在共同努力降低通胀，但即使最近的读数更有利，这一过程仍有很长的路要走。</blockquote>On a 12-month basis, U.S. total, or “headline,” PCE (personal consumption expenditures) inflation peaked at 7 percent in June 2022 and declined to 3.3 percent as of July, following a trajectory roughly in line with global trends (figure 1, panel A).1 The effects of Russia’s war against Ukraine have been a primary driver of the changes in headline inflation around the world since early 2022. Headline inflation is what households and businesses experience most directly, so this decline is very good news. But food and energy prices are influenced by global factors that remain volatile, and can provide a misleading signal of where inflation is headed. In my remaining comments, I will focus on core PCE inflation, which omits the food and energy components.<blockquote>以12个月为基础，美国PCE（个人消费支出）总通胀率（即“总体”）于2022年6月达到7%的峰值，截至7月降至3.3%，其轨迹大致与全球趋势一致（图1，面板A）。1自2022年初以来，俄罗斯对乌克兰战争的影响一直是全球总体通胀变化的主要驱动因素。总体通胀是家庭和企业最直接经历的，因此这种下降是非常好的消息。但食品和能源价格受到持续波动的全球因素的影响，并可能提供通胀走向的误导性信号。在我剩下的评论中，我将重点关注核心PCE通胀，其中省略了食品和能源部分。</blockquote>On a 12-month basis, core PCE inflation peaked at 5.4 percent in February 2022 and declined gradually to 4.3 percent in July (figure 1, panel B). The lower monthly readings for core inflation in June and July were welcome, but two months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal. We can’t yet know the extent to which these lower readings will continue or where underlying inflation will settle over coming quarters. Twelve-month core inflation is still elevated, and there is substantial further ground to cover to get back to price stability.<blockquote>在12个月的基础上，核心PCE通胀率在2022年2月达到5.4%的峰值，并在7月逐渐下降至4.3%（图1，面板B）。6月和7月核心通胀月度读数较低值得欢迎，但两个月的良好数据只是建立通胀正在向我们的目标持续下降的信心的开始。我们还不知道这些较低的读数将在多大程度上持续，也不知道未来几个季度潜在通胀将在多大程度上稳定下来。十二个月的核心通胀仍然很高，要恢复价格稳定还有很大的空间。</blockquote>To understand the factors that will likely drive further progress, it is useful to separately examine the three broad components of core PCE inflation—inflation for goods, for housing services, and for all other services, sometimes referred to as nonhousing services.<blockquote>为了了解可能推动进一步进展的因素，分别检查核心PCE通胀的三个广泛组成部分是有用的——商品通胀、住房服务通胀和所有其他服务（有时称为非住房服务）的通胀。</blockquote>Core goods inflation has fallen sharply, particularly for durable goods, as both tighter monetary policy and the slow unwinding of supply and demand dislocations are bringing it down. The motor vehicle sector provides a good illustration. Earlier in the pandemic, demand for vehicles rose sharply, supported by low interest rates, fiscal transfers, curtailed spending on in-person services, and shifts in preference away from using public transportation and from living in cities. But because of a shortage of semiconductors, vehicle supply actually fell. Vehicle prices spiked, and a large pool of pent-up demand emerged.<blockquote>核心商品通胀大幅下降，尤其是耐用品，因为收紧的货币政策和供需错位的缓慢缓解都在降低通胀。汽车行业提供了一个很好的例子。在疫情早些时候，在低利率、财政转移支付、面对面服务支出减少以及人们不再使用公共交通和居住在城市的支持下，对汽车的需求急剧上升。但由于半导体短缺，汽车供应实际上下降了。汽车价格飙升，大量被压抑的需求出现了。</blockquote>As the pandemic and its effects have waned, production and inventories have grown, and supply has improved. At the same time, higher interest rates have weighed on demand. Interest rates on auto loans have nearly doubled since early last year, and customers report feeling the effect of higher rates on affordability. On net, motor vehicle inflation has declined sharply because of the combined effects of these supply and demand factors.<blockquote>随着疫情及其影响减弱，生产和库存增长，供应有所改善。与此同时，利率上升拖累了需求。自去年初以来，汽车贷款利率几乎翻了一番，客户报告称感受到了利率上升对负担能力的影响。从净值来看，由于这些供需因素的综合影响，机动车通胀大幅下降。</blockquote>Similar dynamics are playing out for core goods inflation overall. As they do, the effects of monetary restraint should show through more fully over time. Core goods prices fell the past two months, but on a 12-month basis, core goods inflation remains well above its pre-pandemic level. Sustained progress is needed, and restrictive monetary policy is called for to achieve that progress.<blockquote>核心商品通胀总体上也出现了类似的动态。正如他们所做的那样，随着时间的推移，货币紧缩的效果应该会更加充分地显现出来。过去两个月核心商品价格下跌，但以12个月为基础，核心商品通胀仍远高于大流行前的水平。需要持续的进展，需要限制性货币政策来实现这一进展。</blockquote>In the highly interest-sensitive housing sector, the effects of monetary policy became apparent soon after liftoff. Mortgage rates doubled over the course of 2022, causing housing starts and sales to fall and house price growth to plummet. Growth in market rents soon peaked and then steadily declined.<blockquote>在对利率高度敏感的房地产行业，货币政策的效果在起飞后不久就变得明显。抵押贷款利率在2022年翻了一番，导致新屋开工和销售下降，房价增长暴跌。市场租金的增长很快达到顶峰，然后稳步下降。</blockquote>Measured housing services inflation lagged these changes, as is typical, but has recently begun to fall. This inflation metric reflects rents paid by all tenants, as well as estimates of the equivalent rents that could be earned from homes that are owner occupied.4 Because leases turn over slowly, it takes time for a decline in market rent growth to work its way into the overall inflation measure. The market rent slowdown has only recently begun to show through to that measure. The slowing growth in rents for new leases over roughly the past year can be thought of as “in the pipeline” and will affect measured housing services inflation over the coming year. Going forward, if market rent growth settles near pre-pandemic levels, housing services inflation should decline toward its pre-pandemic level as well. We will continue to watch the market rent data closely for a signal of the upside and downside risks to housing services inflation.<blockquote>通常情况下，衡量的住房服务通胀落后于这些变化，但最近开始下降。这一通胀指标反映了所有租户支付的租金，以及对自住房屋可赚取的同等租金的估计。4由于租约周转缓慢，市场租金增长的下降需要时间才能发挥作用进入整体通胀指标。市场租金放缓直到最近才开始体现出来。大约过去一年新租约租金增长放缓可以被认为是“正在酝酿中”，并将影响来年的住房服务通胀。展望未来，如果市场租金增长稳定在大流行前的水平附近，住房服务通胀也应该会下降到大流行前的水平。我们将继续密切关注市场租金数据，以寻找住房服务通胀上行和下行风险的信号。</blockquote>The final category, nonhousing services, accounts for over half of the core PCE index and includes a broad range of services, such as health care, food services, transportation, and accommodations. Twelve-month inflation in this sector has moved sideways since liftoff. Inflation measured over the past three and six months has declined, however, which is encouraging. Part of the reason for the modest decline of nonhousing services inflation so far is that many of these services were less affected by global supply chain bottlenecks and are generally thought to be less interest sensitive than other sectors such as housing or durable goods. Production of these services is also relatively labor intensive, and the labor market remains tight. Given the size of this sector, some further progress here will be essential to restoring price stability. Over time, restrictive monetary policy will help bring aggregate supply and demand back into better balance, reducing inflationary pressures in this key sector.<blockquote>最后一类是非住房服务，占核心PCE指数的一半以上，包括广泛的服务，如医疗保健、食品服务、交通和住宿。自启动以来，该行业12个月的通胀一直横盘整理。然而，过去三个月和六个月的通货膨胀率有所下降，这令人鼓舞。到目前为止，非住房服务通胀温和下降的部分原因是，其中许多服务受全球供应链瓶颈的影响较小，并且通常被认为比住房或耐用品等其他行业对利率的敏感性较低。这些服务的生产也相对劳动密集型，劳动力市场仍然紧张。鉴于这一部门的规模，这方面的进一步进展对于恢复价格稳定至关重要。随着时间的推移，限制性货币政策将有助于使总供需恢复更好的平衡，从而减轻这一关键部门的通胀压力。</blockquote>The Outlook Turning to the outlook, although further unwinding of pandemic-related distortions should continue to put some downward pressure on inflation, restrictive monetary policy will likely play an increasingly important role. Getting inflation sustainably back down to 2 percent is expected to require a period of below-trend economic growth as well as some softening in labor market conditions.<blockquote>展望 展望前景，尽管进一步消除与大流行相关的扭曲应该会继续给通胀带来一些下行压力，但限制性货币政策可能会发挥越来越重要的作用。预计将通胀率持续回落至2%需要一段时间的低于趋势的经济增长以及劳动力市场状况的一定程度疲软。</blockquote>Economic growth Restrictive monetary policy has tightened financial conditions, supporting the expectation of below-trend growth.5 Since last year’s symposium, the two-year real yield is up about 250 basis points, and longer-term real yields are higher as well—by nearly 150 basis points.6 Beyond changes in interest rates, bank lending standards have tightened, and loan growth has slowed sharply.7 Such a tightening of broad financial conditions typically contributes to a slowing in the growth of economic activity, and there is evidence of that in this cycle as well. For example, growth in industrial production has slowed, and the amount spent on residential investment has declined in each of the past five quarters.<blockquote>经济增长 限制性货币政策收紧了金融状况，支持了低于趋势增长的预期。5自去年的研讨会以来，两年期实际收益率上升了约250个基点，长期实际收益率也更高，上升了近150个基点。6除了利率变化之外，银行贷款标准也收紧了，贷款增长急剧放缓。7广泛金融状况的这种收紧通常会导致经济活动增长放缓，在本周期中也有证据表明这一点。例如，工业生产增长放缓，住宅投资支出在过去五个季度中每个季度都有所下降。</blockquote>But we are attentive to signs that the economy may not be cooling as expected. So far this year, GDP (gross domestic product) growth has come in above expectations and above its longer-run trend, and recent readings on consumer spending have been especially robust. In addition, after decelerating sharply over the past 18 months, the housing sector is showing signs of picking back up. Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy.<blockquote>但我们关注经济可能不会如预期般降温的迹象。今年到目前为止，GDP（国内生产总值）增长高于预期，也高于长期趋势，最近的消费者支出数据尤其强劲。此外，在过去18个月大幅减速后，房地产行业正显示出回升的迹象。持续高于趋势增长的更多证据可能会使通胀的进一步进展面临风险，并可能需要进一步收紧货币政策。</blockquote>The labor market The rebalancing of the labor market has continued over the past year but remains incomplete. Labor supply has improved, driven by stronger participation among workers aged 25 to 54 and by an increase in immigration back toward pre-pandemic levels. Indeed, the labor force participation rate of women in their prime working years reached an all-time high in June. Demand for labor has moderated as well. Job openings remain high but are trending lower. Payroll job growth has slowed significantly. Total hours worked has been flat over the past six months, and the average workweek has declined to the lower end of its pre-pandemic range, reflecting a gradual normalization in labor market conditions.<blockquote>劳动力市场 过去一年，劳动力市场的再平衡仍在继续，但仍未完成。劳动力供应有所改善，这得益于25至54岁工人的参与率提高以及移民数量恢复到大流行前的水平。事实上，处于黄金工作年龄的女性的劳动力参与率在6月份达到了历史最高水平。对劳动力的需求也有所放缓。职位空缺仍然很高，但呈下降趋势。就业增长明显放缓。过去六个月，总工作时间持平，平均每周工作时间已降至大流行前范围的下限，反映出劳动力市场状况逐渐正常化。</blockquote>This rebalancing has eased wage pressures. Wage growth across a range of measures continues to slow, albeit gradually. While nominal wage growth must ultimately slow to a rate that is consistent with 2 percent inflation, what matters for households is real wage growth. Even as nominal wage growth has slowed, real wage growth has been increasing as inflation has fallen.<blockquote>这种再平衡缓解了工资压力。一系列指标的工资增长继续放缓，尽管是逐渐放缓。虽然名义工资增长最终必须放缓至与2%通胀率一致的速度，但对家庭来说重要的是实际工资增长。尽管名义工资增长放缓，但随着通胀下降，实际工资增长一直在增加。</blockquote>We expect this labor market rebalancing to continue. Evidence that the tightness in the labor market is no longer easing could also call for a monetary policy response.<blockquote>我们预计劳动力市场的再平衡将持续下去。劳动力市场紧张状况不再缓解的证据也可能为货币政策应对提供看涨期权。</blockquote>Uncertainty and Risk Management along the Path Forward<blockquote>前进道路上的不确定性和风险管理</blockquote>Two percent is and will remain our inflation target. We are committed to achieving and sustaining a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to that level over time. It is challenging, of course, to know in real time when such a stance has been achieved. There are some challenges that are common to all tightening cycles. For example, real interest rates are now positive and well above mainstream estimates of the neutral policy rate. We see the current stance of policy as restrictive, putting downward pressure on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. But we cannot identify with certainty the neutral rate of interest, and thus there is always uncertainty about the precise level of monetary policy restraint.<blockquote>百分之二是并将继续是我们的通胀目标。我们致力于实现并维持足够严格的货币政策立场，以随着时间的推移将通胀降至该水平。当然，实时知道何时实现了这样的立场是具有挑战性的。所有紧缩周期都面临一些共同的挑战。例如，实际利率现在为正，远高于中性政策利率的主流估计。我们认为当前的政策立场是限制性的，给经济活动、就业和通胀带来下行压力。但我们无法确定中性利率，因此货币政策约束的确切水平总是存在不确定性。</blockquote>That assessment is further complicated by uncertainty about the duration of the lags with which monetary tightening affects economic activity and especially inflation. Since the symposium a year ago, the Committee has raised the policy rate by 300 basis points, including 100 basis points over the past seven months. And we have substantially reduced the size of our securities holdings. The wide range of estimates of these lags suggests that there may be significant further drag in the pipeline.<blockquote>由于货币紧缩影响经济活动（尤其是通胀）的滞后持续时间的不确定性，这一评估变得更加复杂。自一年前的座谈会以来，该委员会已将政策利率上调了300个基点，其中过去7个月上调了100个基点。我们大幅减少了证券持有规模。对这些滞后的广泛估计表明，管道中可能存在重大的进一步阻力。</blockquote>Beyond these traditional sources of policy uncertainty, the supply and demand dislocations unique to this cycle raise further complications through their effects on inflation and labor market dynamics. For example, so far, job openings have declined substantially without increasing unemployment—a highly welcome but historically unusual result that appears to reflect large excess demand for labor. In addition, there is evidence that inflation has become more responsive to labor market tightness than was the case in recent decades. These changing dynamics may or may not persist, and this uncertainty underscores the need for agile policymaking.<blockquote>除了这些政策不确定性的传统来源之外，本周期特有的供需错位通过对通胀和劳动力市场动态的影响进一步加剧了复杂性。例如，到目前为止，职位空缺大幅下降，而失业率却没有增加——这是一个非常受欢迎但历史上不寻常的结果，似乎反映了对劳动力的大量过剩需求。此外，有证据表明，与近几十年来相比，通胀对劳动力市场紧张的反应更加强烈。这些不断变化的动态可能会持续，也可能不会持续，这种不确定性强调了敏捷决策的必要性。</blockquote>These uncertainties, both old and new, complicate our task of balancing the risk of tightening monetary policy too much against the risk of tightening too little. Doing too little could allow above-target inflation to become entrenched and ultimately require monetary policy to wring more persistent inflation from the economy at a high cost to employment. Doing too much could also do unnecessary harm to the economy.<blockquote>这些新旧不确定因素使我们平衡货币政策过度紧缩的风险和紧缩过少的风险的任务变得复杂。做得太少可能会让高于目标的通胀根深蒂固，并最终需要货币政策以高昂的就业成本从经济中挤出更持久的通胀。做得太多也可能对经济造成不必要的损害。</blockquote>Conclusion As is often the case, we are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies. In such circumstances, risk-management considerations are critical. At upcoming meetings, we will assess our progress based on the totality of the data and the evolving outlook and risks. Based on this assessment, we will proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further or, instead, to hold the policy rate constant and await further data. Restoring price stability is essential to achieving both sides of our dual mandate. We will need price stability to achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.<blockquote>结论 通常情况下，我们在多云的天空下靠星星导航。在这种情况下，风险管理考虑至关重要。在即将举行的会议上，我们将根据全部数据以及不断变化的前景和风险评估我们的进展。基于这一评估，我们将谨慎行事，决定是进一步收紧政策，还是保持政策利率不变并等待进一步的数据。恢复价格稳定对于实现我们的双重使命至关重要。我们将需要价格稳定，以实现劳动力市场持续强劲的状况，使所有人受益。</blockquote>We will keep at it until the job is done.<blockquote>我们将坚持下去，直到工作完成。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116080996","content_text":"KEY POINTSWhile acknowledging that progress has been made, the central bank leader said inflation is still above where policymakers feel comfortable.The speech resembled remarks Powell made last year at Jackson Hole, during which he warned that “some pain” was likely as the Fed continues its efforts to pull runaway inflation back down to its 2% goal.A strong economy and decelerating inflation also give the Fed room to “proceed carefully” at upcoming meetings.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday called for more vigilance in the fight against inflation, warning that additional interest rate increases could be yet to come.While acknowledging that progress has been made, the central bank leader said inflation is still above where policymakers feel comfortable. He noted that the Fed will remain flexible as it contemplates further moves, but gave little indication that it’s ready to start easing up anytime soon.“Although inflation has moved down from its peak — a welcome development — it remains too high,” Powell said in prepared remarks for his keynote address at the Kansas City Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.”The speech resembled remarks Powell made last year at Jackson Hole, during which he warned that “some pain” was likely as the Fed continues its efforts to pull runaway inflation back down to its 2% goal.But inflation was running well ahead of its current pace back then. Regardless, Powell indicated it’s too soon to declare victory, even with data this summer running largely in the Fed’s favor.He acknowledged that risks are two-sided, with risks of doing both too much and too little.“Doing too little could allow above-target inflation to become entrenched and ultimately require monetary policy to wring more persistent inflation from the economy at a high cost to employment,” he said. “Doing too much could also do unnecessary harm to the economy.”“As is often the case, we are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies,” he added.Dow, S&P, Nasdaq stay positive after Powell's Jackson Hole speech.A need to ‘proceed carefully’Powell’s remarks follow a series of 11 interest rate hikes that have pushed the Fed’s key interest rate to a target range of 5.25%-5.5%, the highest level in more than 22 years. In addition, the Fed has reduced its balance sheet to its lowest level in more than two years, a process which was seen about $960 billion worth of bonds roll off since June 2022.Markets of late have been pricing in little chance of another hike at the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, but are pointing to about a 50-50 chance of a final increase at the November session.Powell provided no clear indication of which way he sees the decision going.“Given how far we have come, at upcoming meetings we are in a position to proceed carefully as we assess the incoming data and the evolving outlook and risks,” he said.However, he gave no sign that he’s even considering a rate cut.“At upcoming meetings, we will assess our progress based on the totality of the data and the evolving outlook and risks,” Powell said. “Based on this assessment, we will proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further or, instead, to hold the policy rate constant and await further data.”Getting into detailsWhile last year’s speech was unusually brief, this time around Powell provided a little more detail into the factors that will go into policymaking.Specifically, he broke inflation into three key metrics and said the Fed is most focused on core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. He also reiterated that the Fed most closely follows the personal consumption expenditures price index, a Commerce Department measure, rather than the Labor Department’s consumer price index.The three “broad components” of which he spoke entail goods, housing services such as rental costs and nonhousing services. He noted progress on all three, but said nonhousing is the most difficult to gauge as it is the least sensitive to interest rate adjustments. That category includes such things as health care, food services and transportation.“Twelve-month inflation in this sector has moved sideways since liftoff. Inflation measured over the past three and six months has declined, however, which is encouraging,” Powell said. “Given the size of this sector, some further progress here will be essential to restoring price stability.”No change to inflation goalIn addition to the broader policy outlook, Powell honed in some areas that are key both to market and political considerations.Some legislators, particularly on the Democratic side, have suggested the Fed raise its 2% inflation target, a move that would give it more policy flexibility and might deter further rate hikes. But Powell rejected that idea, as he has done in the past.“Two percent is and will remain our inflation target,” he said.On another issue, Powell chose largely to stay away from the debate over what is the longer-run, or natural, rate of interest that is neither restrictive nor stimulative – the “r-star” rate of which he spoke at Jackson Hole in 2018.“We see the current stance of policy as restrictive, putting downward pressure on economic activity, hiring, and inflation,” he said. “But we cannot identify with certainty the neutral rate of interest, and thus there is always uncertainty about the precise level of monetary policy restraint.”Powell also noted that the previous tightening moves likely haven’t made their way through the system yet, providing further caution for the future of policy.Here is the full text of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech.Good morning. At last year’s Jackson Hole symposium, I delivered a brief, direct message. My remarks this year will be a bit longer, but the message is the same: It is the Fed’s job to bring inflation down to our 2 percent goal, and we will do so. We have tightened policy significantly over the past year. Although inflation has moved down from its peak—a welcome development—it remains too high. We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.Today I will review our progress so far and discuss the outlook and the uncertainties we face as we pursue our dual mandate goals. I will conclude with a summary of what this means for policy. Given how far we have come, at upcoming meetings we are in a position to proceed carefully as we assess the incoming data and the evolving outlook and risks.The Decline in Inflation So FarThe ongoing episode of high inflation initially emerged from a collision between very strong demand and pandemic-constrained supply. By the time the Federal Open Market Committee raised the policy rate in March 2022, it was clear that bringing down inflation would depend on both the unwinding of the unprecedented pandemic-related demand and supply distortions and on our tightening of monetary policy, which would slow the growth of aggregate demand, allowing supply time to catch up. While these two forces are now working together to bring down inflation, the process still has a long way to go, even with the more favorable recent readings.On a 12-month basis, U.S. total, or “headline,” PCE (personal consumption expenditures) inflation peaked at 7 percent in June 2022 and declined to 3.3 percent as of July, following a trajectory roughly in line with global trends (figure 1, panel A).1 The effects of Russia’s war against Ukraine have been a primary driver of the changes in headline inflation around the world since early 2022. Headline inflation is what households and businesses experience most directly, so this decline is very good news. But food and energy prices are influenced by global factors that remain volatile, and can provide a misleading signal of where inflation is headed. In my remaining comments, I will focus on core PCE inflation, which omits the food and energy components.On a 12-month basis, core PCE inflation peaked at 5.4 percent in February 2022 and declined gradually to 4.3 percent in July (figure 1, panel B). The lower monthly readings for core inflation in June and July were welcome, but two months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal. We can’t yet know the extent to which these lower readings will continue or where underlying inflation will settle over coming quarters. Twelve-month core inflation is still elevated, and there is substantial further ground to cover to get back to price stability.To understand the factors that will likely drive further progress, it is useful to separately examine the three broad components of core PCE inflation—inflation for goods, for housing services, and for all other services, sometimes referred to as nonhousing services.Core goods inflation has fallen sharply, particularly for durable goods, as both tighter monetary policy and the slow unwinding of supply and demand dislocations are bringing it down. The motor vehicle sector provides a good illustration. Earlier in the pandemic, demand for vehicles rose sharply, supported by low interest rates, fiscal transfers, curtailed spending on in-person services, and shifts in preference away from using public transportation and from living in cities. But because of a shortage of semiconductors, vehicle supply actually fell. Vehicle prices spiked, and a large pool of pent-up demand emerged.As the pandemic and its effects have waned, production and inventories have grown, and supply has improved. At the same time, higher interest rates have weighed on demand. Interest rates on auto loans have nearly doubled since early last year, and customers report feeling the effect of higher rates on affordability. On net, motor vehicle inflation has declined sharply because of the combined effects of these supply and demand factors.Similar dynamics are playing out for core goods inflation overall. As they do, the effects of monetary restraint should show through more fully over time. Core goods prices fell the past two months, but on a 12-month basis, core goods inflation remains well above its pre-pandemic level. Sustained progress is needed, and restrictive monetary policy is called for to achieve that progress.In the highly interest-sensitive housing sector, the effects of monetary policy became apparent soon after liftoff. Mortgage rates doubled over the course of 2022, causing housing starts and sales to fall and house price growth to plummet. Growth in market rents soon peaked and then steadily declined.Measured housing services inflation lagged these changes, as is typical, but has recently begun to fall. This inflation metric reflects rents paid by all tenants, as well as estimates of the equivalent rents that could be earned from homes that are owner occupied.4 Because leases turn over slowly, it takes time for a decline in market rent growth to work its way into the overall inflation measure. The market rent slowdown has only recently begun to show through to that measure. The slowing growth in rents for new leases over roughly the past year can be thought of as “in the pipeline” and will affect measured housing services inflation over the coming year. Going forward, if market rent growth settles near pre-pandemic levels, housing services inflation should decline toward its pre-pandemic level as well. We will continue to watch the market rent data closely for a signal of the upside and downside risks to housing services inflation.The final category, nonhousing services, accounts for over half of the core PCE index and includes a broad range of services, such as health care, food services, transportation, and accommodations. Twelve-month inflation in this sector has moved sideways since liftoff. Inflation measured over the past three and six months has declined, however, which is encouraging. Part of the reason for the modest decline of nonhousing services inflation so far is that many of these services were less affected by global supply chain bottlenecks and are generally thought to be less interest sensitive than other sectors such as housing or durable goods. Production of these services is also relatively labor intensive, and the labor market remains tight. Given the size of this sector, some further progress here will be essential to restoring price stability. Over time, restrictive monetary policy will help bring aggregate supply and demand back into better balance, reducing inflationary pressures in this key sector.The OutlookTurning to the outlook, although further unwinding of pandemic-related distortions should continue to put some downward pressure on inflation, restrictive monetary policy will likely play an increasingly important role. Getting inflation sustainably back down to 2 percent is expected to require a period of below-trend economic growth as well as some softening in labor market conditions.Economic growthRestrictive monetary policy has tightened financial conditions, supporting the expectation of below-trend growth.5 Since last year’s symposium, the two-year real yield is up about 250 basis points, and longer-term real yields are higher as well—by nearly 150 basis points.6 Beyond changes in interest rates, bank lending standards have tightened, and loan growth has slowed sharply.7 Such a tightening of broad financial conditions typically contributes to a slowing in the growth of economic activity, and there is evidence of that in this cycle as well. For example, growth in industrial production has slowed, and the amount spent on residential investment has declined in each of the past five quarters.But we are attentive to signs that the economy may not be cooling as expected. So far this year, GDP (gross domestic product) growth has come in above expectations and above its longer-run trend, and recent readings on consumer spending have been especially robust. In addition, after decelerating sharply over the past 18 months, the housing sector is showing signs of picking back up. Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy.The labor marketThe rebalancing of the labor market has continued over the past year but remains incomplete. Labor supply has improved, driven by stronger participation among workers aged 25 to 54 and by an increase in immigration back toward pre-pandemic levels. Indeed, the labor force participation rate of women in their prime working years reached an all-time high in June. Demand for labor has moderated as well. Job openings remain high but are trending lower. Payroll job growth has slowed significantly. Total hours worked has been flat over the past six months, and the average workweek has declined to the lower end of its pre-pandemic range, reflecting a gradual normalization in labor market conditions.This rebalancing has eased wage pressures. Wage growth across a range of measures continues to slow, albeit gradually. While nominal wage growth must ultimately slow to a rate that is consistent with 2 percent inflation, what matters for households is real wage growth. Even as nominal wage growth has slowed, real wage growth has been increasing as inflation has fallen.We expect this labor market rebalancing to continue. Evidence that the tightness in the labor market is no longer easing could also call for a monetary policy response.Uncertainty and Risk Management along the Path ForwardTwo percent is and will remain our inflation target. We are committed to achieving and sustaining a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to that level over time. It is challenging, of course, to know in real time when such a stance has been achieved. There are some challenges that are common to all tightening cycles. For example, real interest rates are now positive and well above mainstream estimates of the neutral policy rate. We see the current stance of policy as restrictive, putting downward pressure on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. But we cannot identify with certainty the neutral rate of interest, and thus there is always uncertainty about the precise level of monetary policy restraint.That assessment is further complicated by uncertainty about the duration of the lags with which monetary tightening affects economic activity and especially inflation. Since the symposium a year ago, the Committee has raised the policy rate by 300 basis points, including 100 basis points over the past seven months. And we have substantially reduced the size of our securities holdings. The wide range of estimates of these lags suggests that there may be significant further drag in the pipeline.Beyond these traditional sources of policy uncertainty, the supply and demand dislocations unique to this cycle raise further complications through their effects on inflation and labor market dynamics. For example, so far, job openings have declined substantially without increasing unemployment—a highly welcome but historically unusual result that appears to reflect large excess demand for labor. In addition, there is evidence that inflation has become more responsive to labor market tightness than was the case in recent decades. These changing dynamics may or may not persist, and this uncertainty underscores the need for agile policymaking.These uncertainties, both old and new, complicate our task of balancing the risk of tightening monetary policy too much against the risk of tightening too little. Doing too little could allow above-target inflation to become entrenched and ultimately require monetary policy to wring more persistent inflation from the economy at a high cost to employment. Doing too much could also do unnecessary harm to the economy.ConclusionAs is often the case, we are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies. In such circumstances, risk-management considerations are critical. At upcoming meetings, we will assess our progress based on the totality of the data and the evolving outlook and risks. Based on this assessment, we will proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further or, instead, to hold the policy rate constant and await further data. Restoring price stability is essential to achieving both sides of our dual mandate. We will need price stability to achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.We will keep at it until the job is done.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":1.1,".IXIC":1.1,".DJI":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2728,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":0,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}