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2021-01-23

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The incredible backdrop to the global stock-market rally — profits are flat since 2008<blockquote>全球股市上涨的令人难以置信的背景——利润自2008年以来持平</blockquote>

As the debate between the discrepancy between the stock market and the real economy continues to pla

The incredible backdrop to the global stock-market rally — profits are flat since 2008<blockquote>全球股市上涨的令人难以置信的背景——利润自2008年以来持平</blockquote>

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EPS here is measured on a forward 12-month basis, and analysts are assuming a nearly full recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.<blockquote>这是一张查看全球股票和全球每股收益的图表。这里的每股收益是在未来12个月的基础上衡量的，分析师假设从COVID-19大流行中几乎完全复苏。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d20cb70a670dc139c1e976e56c69dbd\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"364\"><blockquote></blockquote> The chart shows global earnings per share flat from 2008 levels. Put in a different way — not only are stocks divorced from the performance of the economy, they are even divorced from the profits of the companies they seemingly represent.<blockquote>图表显示全球每股收益与2008年持平。换句话说——股票不仅脱离了经济表现，甚至脱离了它们似乎所代表的公司的利润。</blockquote> “This remarkable observation leads to a salutary conclusion. The global stock market has nearly doubled since 2008 because the multiple paid for unchanged profits has nearly doubled,” said Dhaval Joshi, chief European investment strategist at BCA Research.<blockquote>BCA Research首席欧洲投资策略师Dhaval Joshi表示：“这一引人注目的观察得出了一个有益的结论。全球股市自2008年以来几乎翻了一番，因为为不变利润支付的倍数几乎翻了一番。”</blockquote> The reason the multiple has surged is because the global bond yield has collapsed, making the relative valuation for equities stronger. Joshi took a simple average of the U.S. 10-year TreasuryTMUBMUSD10Y,1.109%,the bedrock of global markets, and, as a proxy for more risky countries, the Italian 10-year TreasuryTMBMKIT-10Y,0.695%.<blockquote>市盈率飙升的原因是全球债券收益率暴跌，使得股票的相对估值更高。Joshi采用了作为全球市场基石的美国10年期国债TMUBMUSD10Y（1.109%）的简单平均值，以及作为风险较高国家的代表的意大利10年期国债TMBMKIT-10Y（0.695%）。</blockquote> He said the global rally can continue until the yield on the U.S. and Italian 10-year reach zero. On Thursday, the U.S. 10-year yielded 1.09% and the Italian 10-year yielded 0.62%.<blockquote>他表示，全球涨势可能会持续到美国和意大利10年期国债收益率降至零。周四，美国10年期国债收益率1.09%，意大利10年期国债收益率0.62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373f5a211109faddd5fc1b9a96dec484\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"298\"><blockquote></blockquote> While profits globally are flat, that isn’t the case on a sector and country basis. Buoyed by the technology sector, U.S. profits have climbed 55% and South Korean profits have gained 25%. Denmark, reliant on health, has seen profits grow by 40%. By contrast, Spain, Italy and Austria have seen profits drop by 45% to 55% due to their exposure to banks.<blockquote>虽然全球利润持平，但就行业和国家而言，情况并非如此。受科技行业的提振，美国利润增长了55%，韩国利润增长了25%。依赖健康的丹麦利润增长了40%。相比之下，西班牙、意大利和奥地利由于对银行的敞口，利润下降了45%至55%。</blockquote> “One important message for long-term investors is that when a sector’s profits go into structural decline, it is terminal. It is almost unheard of for these sectors to return to structural growth. Furthermore, the support to the sector price from falling bond yields is not enough to offset the weight of collapsing profits. In any case, bond yields cannot fall forever,” said Joshi.<blockquote>“对长期投资者来说，一个重要的信息是，当一个行业的利润进入结构性下降时，它就结束了。这些行业恢复结构性增长几乎是闻所未闻的。此外，债券收益率下降对行业价格的支撑不足以抵消利润暴跌的压力。无论如何，债券收益率不可能永远下降，”乔希说。</blockquote> Both the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;ended on records on Wednesday, and the Nikkei 225&nbsp;closed at a 30-year high in Tokyo.<blockquote>标普500和纳斯达克综合指数周三收盘均创历史新高，日经225指数收盘创30年新高。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The incredible backdrop to the global stock-market rally — profits are flat since 2008<blockquote>全球股市上涨的令人难以置信的背景——利润自2008年以来持平</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe incredible backdrop to the global stock-market rally — profits are flat since 2008<blockquote>全球股市上涨的令人难以置信的背景——利润自2008年以来持平</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-01-22 14:56\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAs the debate between the discrepancy between the stock market and the real economy continues to play out with U.S. stocks at record highs, one chart really drives home the difference.<blockquote>随着美国股市创下历史新高，股市与实体经济之间差异的争论继续上演，一张图表真正揭示了这种差异。</blockquote> It’s a chart looking at global stocks and global earnings per share. EPS here is measured on a forward 12-month basis, and analysts are assuming a nearly full recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.<blockquote>这是一张查看全球股票和全球每股收益的图表。这里的每股收益是在未来12个月的基础上衡量的，分析师假设从COVID-19大流行中几乎完全复苏。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d20cb70a670dc139c1e976e56c69dbd\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"364\"><blockquote></blockquote> The chart shows global earnings per share flat from 2008 levels. Put in a different way — not only are stocks divorced from the performance of the economy, they are even divorced from the profits of the companies they seemingly represent.<blockquote>图表显示全球每股收益与2008年持平。换句话说——股票不仅脱离了经济表现，甚至脱离了它们似乎所代表的公司的利润。</blockquote> “This remarkable observation leads to a salutary conclusion. The global stock market has nearly doubled since 2008 because the multiple paid for unchanged profits has nearly doubled,” said Dhaval Joshi, chief European investment strategist at BCA Research.<blockquote>BCA Research首席欧洲投资策略师Dhaval Joshi表示：“这一引人注目的观察得出了一个有益的结论。全球股市自2008年以来几乎翻了一番，因为为不变利润支付的倍数几乎翻了一番。”</blockquote> The reason the multiple has surged is because the global bond yield has collapsed, making the relative valuation for equities stronger. Joshi took a simple average of the U.S. 10-year TreasuryTMUBMUSD10Y,1.109%,the bedrock of global markets, and, as a proxy for more risky countries, the Italian 10-year TreasuryTMBMKIT-10Y,0.695%.<blockquote>市盈率飙升的原因是全球债券收益率暴跌，使得股票的相对估值更高。Joshi采用了作为全球市场基石的美国10年期国债TMUBMUSD10Y（1.109%）的简单平均值，以及作为风险较高国家的代表的意大利10年期国债TMBMKIT-10Y（0.695%）。</blockquote> He said the global rally can continue until the yield on the U.S. and Italian 10-year reach zero. On Thursday, the U.S. 10-year yielded 1.09% and the Italian 10-year yielded 0.62%.<blockquote>他表示，全球涨势可能会持续到美国和意大利10年期国债收益率降至零。周四，美国10年期国债收益率1.09%，意大利10年期国债收益率0.62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373f5a211109faddd5fc1b9a96dec484\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"298\"><blockquote></blockquote> While profits globally are flat, that isn’t the case on a sector and country basis. Buoyed by the technology sector, U.S. profits have climbed 55% and South Korean profits have gained 25%. Denmark, reliant on health, has seen profits grow by 40%. By contrast, Spain, Italy and Austria have seen profits drop by 45% to 55% due to their exposure to banks.<blockquote>虽然全球利润持平，但就行业和国家而言，情况并非如此。受科技行业的提振，美国利润增长了55%，韩国利润增长了25%。依赖健康的丹麦利润增长了40%。相比之下，西班牙、意大利和奥地利由于对银行的敞口，利润下降了45%至55%。</blockquote> “One important message for long-term investors is that when a sector’s profits go into structural decline, it is terminal. It is almost unheard of for these sectors to return to structural growth. Furthermore, the support to the sector price from falling bond yields is not enough to offset the weight of collapsing profits. In any case, bond yields cannot fall forever,” said Joshi.<blockquote>“对长期投资者来说，一个重要的信息是，当一个行业的利润进入结构性下降时，它就结束了。这些行业恢复结构性增长几乎是闻所未闻的。此外，债券收益率下降对行业价格的支撑不足以抵消利润暴跌的压力。无论如何，债券收益率不可能永远下降，”乔希说。</blockquote> Both the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;ended on records on Wednesday, and the Nikkei 225&nbsp;closed at a 30-year high in Tokyo.<blockquote>标普500和纳斯达克综合指数周三收盘均创历史新高，日经225指数收盘创30年新高。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-incredible-backdrop-to-the-global-stock-market-rally-profits-are-flat-since-2008-11611226707?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-incredible-backdrop-to-the-global-stock-market-rally-profits-are-flat-since-2008-11611226707?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1101623367","content_text":"As the debate between the discrepancy between the stock market and the real economy continues to play out with U.S. stocks at record highs, one chart really drives home the difference.\nIt’s a chart looking at global stocks and global earnings per share. EPS here is measured on a forward 12-month basis, and analysts are assuming a nearly full recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.\n\nThe chart shows global earnings per share flat from 2008 levels. Put in a different way — not only are stocks divorced from the performance of the economy, they are even divorced from the profits of the companies they seemingly represent.\n“This remarkable observation leads to a salutary conclusion. The global stock market has nearly doubled since 2008 because the multiple paid for unchanged profits has nearly doubled,” said Dhaval Joshi, chief European investment strategist at BCA Research.\nThe reason the multiple has surged is because the global bond yield has collapsed, making the relative valuation for equities stronger. Joshi took a simple average of the U.S. 10-year TreasuryTMUBMUSD10Y,1.109%,the bedrock of global markets, and, as a proxy for more risky countries, the Italian 10-year TreasuryTMBMKIT-10Y,0.695%.\nHe said the global rally can continue until the yield on the U.S. and Italian 10-year reach zero. On Thursday, the U.S. 10-year yielded 1.09% and the Italian 10-year yielded 0.62%.\n\nWhile profits globally are flat, that isn’t the case on a sector and country basis. Buoyed by the technology sector, U.S. profits have climbed 55% and South Korean profits have gained 25%. Denmark, reliant on health, has seen profits grow by 40%. By contrast, Spain, Italy and Austria have seen profits drop by 45% to 55% due to their exposure to banks.\n“One important message for long-term investors is that when a sector’s profits go into structural decline, it is terminal. It is almost unheard of for these sectors to return to structural growth. Furthermore, the support to the sector price from falling bond yields is not enough to offset the weight of collapsing profits. In any case, bond yields cannot fall forever,” said Joshi.\nBoth the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ended on records on Wednesday, and the Nikkei 225 closed at a 30-year high in Tokyo.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1274,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}