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2021-03-15

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Higher Rates Won’t Kill the Stock Market. What to Do Now.<blockquote>更高的利率不会扼杀股市。现在该怎么办。</blockquote>

Sometimes when the water gets rough, the first inclination is to find a port to ride out the storm.

Higher Rates Won’t Kill the Stock Market. What to Do Now.<blockquote>更高的利率不会扼杀股市。现在该怎么办。</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":322362955,"tweetId":"322362955","gmtCreate":1615774630377,"gmtModify":1703492760867,"author":{"id":3577711512252285,"idStr":"3577711512252285","authorId":3577711512252285,"authorIdStr":"3577711512252285","name":"empt","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>🤭</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>🤭</body></html>","text":"🤭","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322362955","repostId":1143590834,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143590834","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615773783,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143590834?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-15 10:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Higher Rates Won’t Kill the Stock Market. What to Do Now.<blockquote>更高的利率不会扼杀股市。现在该怎么办。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143590834","media":"Barrons","summary":"Sometimes when the water gets rough, the first inclination is to find a port to ride out the storm. ","content":"Sometimes when the water gets rough, the first inclination is to find a port to ride out the storm. This isn’t one of those times. Investors would be wise tosail on.<blockquote>有时当水变得汹涌时，第一个倾向是找一个港口安然度过风暴。这不是那种时候。投资者继续航行是明智的。</blockquote> Sure, the major indexes finished higher on the week after settingrecord highsalong the way. Value stocks continued their run-up. Butheightened volatility—especially on theNasdaq Composite—made things look a lot more blustery. The tech-heavy index moved up or down more than 2% three of the five days this past week. On Wednesday, a relatively calm day, the Nasdaq had a 1.8% intraday swing.<blockquote>当然，主要股指在一路上创下历史新高后，本周收高。价值股继续上涨。但波动性加剧——尤其是纳斯达克综合指数——让事情看起来更加狂风大作。以科技股为主的指数在过去一周的五天中有三天上涨或下跌超过2%。周三，相对平静的一天，纳斯达克盘中波动1.8%。</blockquote> TheDow Jones Industrial Average,for its part, rose five straight days, gaining almost 1,300 points, or 4.1%, closing at 32,779. That’s its best weekly gain since November. TheS&amp;P 500 index’sintraweek range was almost 4%. It ended up rising four out of five days and finishing up the week 2.6%, at 3,943. The Nasdaq broke a three week losing streak, despite the volatility, riding a big 3.7% Tuesday gain to finish up 3.1% for the week at 13,320.<blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数则连续五天上涨，上涨近1,300点，涨幅4.1%，收于32,779点。这是自11月以来的最佳单周涨幅。标准普尔500指数的上周涨幅接近4%。最终五天中有四天上涨，本周收于3,943点，上涨2.6%。尽管波动较大，纳斯达克还是打破了连续三周的下跌，周二大幅上涨3.7%，本周收盘上涨3.1%，至13,320点。</blockquote> Rising interest rates—and what they signal about rising inflation—are the reason for the volatility. But higher rates aren’t a signal that investors should sell now. The market could well rise higher still. The stocks leading the market, however, might be a little different than the ones that led it to records in 2020.<blockquote>利率上升——以及它们对通胀上升的信号——是波动的原因。但利率上升并不是投资者现在应该卖出的信号。市场很可能会进一步上涨。然而，引领市场的股票可能与2020年引领市场创下纪录的股票略有不同。</blockquote> Investors fear rising rates for two reasons. First, they make it harder to finance businesses. Higher interest expenses means bondholders, and not stockholders, get a bit more of a company’s cash. Second, theyreduce the valueof future cash flow and dividends, hitting growth stocks especially hard.<blockquote>投资者担心利率上升有两个原因。首先，它们使企业融资变得更加困难。更高的利息支出意味着债券持有人，而不是股东，可以获得更多的公司现金。其次，它们降低了未来现金流和股息的价值，对成长型股票的打击尤其严重。</blockquote> Yet rates aren’t even all that high. The 10-year Treasury yield has gone from about 1.2% to 1.6% over the past month. Rates were higher than that back in January 2020, before the pandemic. What is really vexing investors is how fast they have risen.<blockquote>然而，利率甚至没有那么高。过去一个月，10年期国债收益率从约1.2%升至1.6%。利率高于2020年1月大流行之前的水平。真正让投资者烦恼的是它们上涨的速度有多快。</blockquote> At the end of 2020’s third quarter, the 10-year Treasury yield was about 0.7%. On Feb. 16—the date the Nasdaq reached its all-time high—it was 1.3%, a 60-basis-point increase. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.) The Nasdaq rose 21% over that span. Then bond yields went from 1.3% to 1.6% between Feb. 16 and March 8, just after the Nasdaq entered correction territory. That’s a 30-basis-point move in less than a month. The Nasdaq tanked, dropping 10%.<blockquote>2020年第三季度末，10年期国债收益率约为0.7%。2月16日——纳斯达克创下历史新高的那一天——为1.3%，上涨了60个基点。（一个基点是1/100个百分点。）在此期间，纳斯达克上涨了21%。2月16日至3月8日期间，就在纳斯达克进入调整区域后，债券收益率从1.3%升至1.6%。这是在不到一个月的时间里30个基点的变动。纳斯达克暴跌，下跌10%。</blockquote> “When rates creep higher, the market can take that,”Andrew Slimmon, a senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, tellsBarron’s. “The path of rates—the speed at which rates move—is the key question.”<blockquote>摩根士丹利投资管理公司高级投资组合经理安德鲁·斯利蒙表示：“当利率攀升时，市场可以接受。”巴伦周刊“利率路径——利率变动的速度——是关键问题。”</blockquote> Rates matter, but they can’t explain all the swings of the Nasdaq this past week. U.S. inflation data, for instance, was benign on Wednesday. Consumer prices rose at a slower rate than expected, and bond yields fell. Still, the Nasdaq, which had jumped almost 2% early in the day, gave up all its gains and closed lower.Tesla(ticker: TSLA), ahighflying growth stock, which had risen more than 6% that day, closed down 0.8%.<blockquote>利率很重要，但它们无法解释过去一周纳斯达克的所有波动。例如，周三美国通胀数据表现良好。消费者价格上涨速度低于预期，债券收益率下降。尽管如此，当天早些时候上涨近2%的纳斯达克回吐所有涨幅，收跌。特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）是一只高增长股，当日上涨超过6%，收盘下跌0.8%。</blockquote> The reason? “Investors were worried about being overweight growth stocks,” says Slimmon. Growth stocks have trounced value stocks for years, but more recentlyvalue has made a comeback. TheRussell 1000 Value index,for instance, is up about 11% year to date. TheRussell 1000 Growth indexis down slightly.<blockquote>原因？“投资者担心跑赢大盘成长型股票，”斯利蒙说。多年来，成长型股票一直击败价值型股票，但最近价值型股票卷土重来。例如，罗素1000价值指数今年迄今上涨了约11%。罗素1000增长指数小幅下跌。</blockquote> Slimmon sees value stocks continuing their momentum. Analysts’ earnings estimates for the coming year are rising faster among financial and industrial companies than tech names. Such revisions are a useful way to see which sectors are getting better, or worse, and at what rate. Big positive earnings revisions typically mean good things for stocks down the road.<blockquote>斯利蒙认为价值股将继续保持势头。分析师对金融和工业公司来年盈利预期的上升速度快于科技公司。这种修正是一种有用的方法，可以了解哪些行业正在变得更好或更差，以及速度如何。大幅积极的盈利修正通常对未来的股市来说意味着好事。</blockquote> Brian Rauscher, Fundstrat Global Advisors’ head of global portfolio strategy and asset allocation, also looks at earnings estimate revisions to help clients allocate investment dollars. He’s still bullish. “Accelerating estimate revisions and good [monetary and fiscal] policy do not signal the end of a bull market, even if people feel uncomfortable,” he says.<blockquote>Fundstrat Global Advisors全球投资组合策略和资产配置主管Brian Rauscher也关注盈利预测修订，以帮助客户分配投资资金。他仍然看涨。他表示：“即使人们感到不舒服，加速预估修正和良好的（货币和财政）政策并不意味着牛市的结束。”</blockquote> Most of his clients feel agitated right now, Rauscher says. Growth managers want to know if they should buy the recent dip. Value managers wonder if they should ride the recent rally further. For him, tech stocks aren’t dead, but value-oriented, cyclical stocks such as industrial companies, financials, materials producers, and travel companies look even more attractive.<blockquote>劳舍尔说，他的大多数客户现在都感到焦虑。成长型经理想知道他们是否应该买入最近的下跌。价值经理想知道他们是否应该进一步利用最近的反弹。对他来说，科技股并没有消亡，但工业公司、金融股、材料生产商和旅游公司等价值导向的周期性股票看起来更具吸引力。</blockquote> Marketwide valuations area little high, he acknowledges. That’s another risk his clients are worried about. “Elevated, not stretched,” is how Rauscher characterizes the situation. “Is the market above fair value? Sure. Is it ridiculous? No.”<blockquote>他承认，整个市场的估值有点高。这是他的客户担心的另一个风险。劳舍尔对这种情况的描述是“升高，而不是拉伸”。“市场是否高于公允价值？当然。这很荒谬吗？不。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Higher Rates Won’t Kill the Stock Market. 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What to Do Now.<blockquote>更高的利率不会扼杀股市。现在该怎么办。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-03-15 10:03\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSometimes when the water gets rough, the first inclination is to find a port to ride out the storm. This isn’t one of those times. Investors would be wise tosail on.<blockquote>有时当水变得汹涌时，第一个倾向是找一个港口安然度过风暴。这不是那种时候。投资者继续航行是明智的。</blockquote> Sure, the major indexes finished higher on the week after settingrecord highsalong the way. Value stocks continued their run-up. Butheightened volatility—especially on theNasdaq Composite—made things look a lot more blustery. The tech-heavy index moved up or down more than 2% three of the five days this past week. On Wednesday, a relatively calm day, the Nasdaq had a 1.8% intraday swing.<blockquote>当然，主要股指在一路上创下历史新高后，本周收高。价值股继续上涨。但波动性加剧——尤其是纳斯达克综合指数——让事情看起来更加狂风大作。以科技股为主的指数在过去一周的五天中有三天上涨或下跌超过2%。周三，相对平静的一天，纳斯达克盘中波动1.8%。</blockquote> TheDow Jones Industrial Average,for its part, rose five straight days, gaining almost 1,300 points, or 4.1%, closing at 32,779. That’s its best weekly gain since November. TheS&amp;P 500 index’sintraweek range was almost 4%. It ended up rising four out of five days and finishing up the week 2.6%, at 3,943. The Nasdaq broke a three week losing streak, despite the volatility, riding a big 3.7% Tuesday gain to finish up 3.1% for the week at 13,320.<blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数则连续五天上涨，上涨近1,300点，涨幅4.1%，收于32,779点。这是自11月以来的最佳单周涨幅。标准普尔500指数的上周涨幅接近4%。最终五天中有四天上涨，本周收于3,943点，上涨2.6%。尽管波动较大，纳斯达克还是打破了连续三周的下跌，周二大幅上涨3.7%，本周收盘上涨3.1%，至13,320点。</blockquote> Rising interest rates—and what they signal about rising inflation—are the reason for the volatility. But higher rates aren’t a signal that investors should sell now. The market could well rise higher still. The stocks leading the market, however, might be a little different than the ones that led it to records in 2020.<blockquote>利率上升——以及它们对通胀上升的信号——是波动的原因。但利率上升并不是投资者现在应该卖出的信号。市场很可能会进一步上涨。然而，引领市场的股票可能与2020年引领市场创下纪录的股票略有不同。</blockquote> Investors fear rising rates for two reasons. First, they make it harder to finance businesses. Higher interest expenses means bondholders, and not stockholders, get a bit more of a company’s cash. Second, theyreduce the valueof future cash flow and dividends, hitting growth stocks especially hard.<blockquote>投资者担心利率上升有两个原因。首先，它们使企业融资变得更加困难。更高的利息支出意味着债券持有人，而不是股东，可以获得更多的公司现金。其次，它们降低了未来现金流和股息的价值，对成长型股票的打击尤其严重。</blockquote> Yet rates aren’t even all that high. The 10-year Treasury yield has gone from about 1.2% to 1.6% over the past month. Rates were higher than that back in January 2020, before the pandemic. What is really vexing investors is how fast they have risen.<blockquote>然而，利率甚至没有那么高。过去一个月，10年期国债收益率从约1.2%升至1.6%。利率高于2020年1月大流行之前的水平。真正让投资者烦恼的是它们上涨的速度有多快。</blockquote> At the end of 2020’s third quarter, the 10-year Treasury yield was about 0.7%. On Feb. 16—the date the Nasdaq reached its all-time high—it was 1.3%, a 60-basis-point increase. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.) The Nasdaq rose 21% over that span. Then bond yields went from 1.3% to 1.6% between Feb. 16 and March 8, just after the Nasdaq entered correction territory. That’s a 30-basis-point move in less than a month. The Nasdaq tanked, dropping 10%.<blockquote>2020年第三季度末，10年期国债收益率约为0.7%。2月16日——纳斯达克创下历史新高的那一天——为1.3%，上涨了60个基点。（一个基点是1/100个百分点。）在此期间，纳斯达克上涨了21%。2月16日至3月8日期间，就在纳斯达克进入调整区域后，债券收益率从1.3%升至1.6%。这是在不到一个月的时间里30个基点的变动。纳斯达克暴跌，下跌10%。</blockquote> “When rates creep higher, the market can take that,”Andrew Slimmon, a senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, tellsBarron’s. “The path of rates—the speed at which rates move—is the key question.”<blockquote>摩根士丹利投资管理公司高级投资组合经理安德鲁·斯利蒙表示：“当利率攀升时，市场可以接受。”巴伦周刊“利率路径——利率变动的速度——是关键问题。”</blockquote> Rates matter, but they can’t explain all the swings of the Nasdaq this past week. U.S. inflation data, for instance, was benign on Wednesday. Consumer prices rose at a slower rate than expected, and bond yields fell. Still, the Nasdaq, which had jumped almost 2% early in the day, gave up all its gains and closed lower.Tesla(ticker: TSLA), ahighflying growth stock, which had risen more than 6% that day, closed down 0.8%.<blockquote>利率很重要，但它们无法解释过去一周纳斯达克的所有波动。例如，周三美国通胀数据表现良好。消费者价格上涨速度低于预期，债券收益率下降。尽管如此，当天早些时候上涨近2%的纳斯达克回吐所有涨幅，收跌。特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）是一只高增长股，当日上涨超过6%，收盘下跌0.8%。</blockquote> The reason? “Investors were worried about being overweight growth stocks,” says Slimmon. Growth stocks have trounced value stocks for years, but more recentlyvalue has made a comeback. TheRussell 1000 Value index,for instance, is up about 11% year to date. TheRussell 1000 Growth indexis down slightly.<blockquote>原因？“投资者担心跑赢大盘成长型股票，”斯利蒙说。多年来，成长型股票一直击败价值型股票，但最近价值型股票卷土重来。例如，罗素1000价值指数今年迄今上涨了约11%。罗素1000增长指数小幅下跌。</blockquote> Slimmon sees value stocks continuing their momentum. Analysts’ earnings estimates for the coming year are rising faster among financial and industrial companies than tech names. Such revisions are a useful way to see which sectors are getting better, or worse, and at what rate. Big positive earnings revisions typically mean good things for stocks down the road.<blockquote>斯利蒙认为价值股将继续保持势头。分析师对金融和工业公司来年盈利预期的上升速度快于科技公司。这种修正是一种有用的方法，可以了解哪些行业正在变得更好或更差，以及速度如何。大幅积极的盈利修正通常对未来的股市来说意味着好事。</blockquote> Brian Rauscher, Fundstrat Global Advisors’ head of global portfolio strategy and asset allocation, also looks at earnings estimate revisions to help clients allocate investment dollars. He’s still bullish. “Accelerating estimate revisions and good [monetary and fiscal] policy do not signal the end of a bull market, even if people feel uncomfortable,” he says.<blockquote>Fundstrat Global Advisors全球投资组合策略和资产配置主管Brian Rauscher也关注盈利预测修订，以帮助客户分配投资资金。他仍然看涨。他表示：“即使人们感到不舒服，加速预估修正和良好的（货币和财政）政策并不意味着牛市的结束。”</blockquote> Most of his clients feel agitated right now, Rauscher says. Growth managers want to know if they should buy the recent dip. Value managers wonder if they should ride the recent rally further. For him, tech stocks aren’t dead, but value-oriented, cyclical stocks such as industrial companies, financials, materials producers, and travel companies look even more attractive.<blockquote>劳舍尔说，他的大多数客户现在都感到焦虑。成长型经理想知道他们是否应该买入最近的下跌。价值经理想知道他们是否应该进一步利用最近的反弹。对他来说，科技股并没有消亡，但工业公司、金融股、材料生产商和旅游公司等价值导向的周期性股票看起来更具吸引力。</blockquote> Marketwide valuations area little high, he acknowledges. That’s another risk his clients are worried about. “Elevated, not stretched,” is how Rauscher characterizes the situation. “Is the market above fair value? Sure. Is it ridiculous? No.”<blockquote>他承认，整个市场的估值有点高。这是他的客户担心的另一个风险。劳舍尔对这种情况的描述是“升高，而不是拉伸”。“市场是否高于公允价值？当然。这很荒谬吗？不。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/higher-rates-wont-kill-the-stock-market-what-to-do-now-51615599362?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/higher-rates-wont-kill-the-stock-market-what-to-do-now-51615599362?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143590834","content_text":"Sometimes when the water gets rough, the first inclination is to find a port to ride out the storm. This isn’t one of those times. Investors would be wise tosail on.\nSure, the major indexes finished higher on the week after settingrecord highsalong the way. Value stocks continued their run-up. Butheightened volatility—especially on theNasdaq Composite—made things look a lot more blustery. The tech-heavy index moved up or down more than 2% three of the five days this past week. On Wednesday, a relatively calm day, the Nasdaq had a 1.8% intraday swing.\nTheDow Jones Industrial Average,for its part, rose five straight days, gaining almost 1,300 points, or 4.1%, closing at 32,779. That’s its best weekly gain since November. TheS&P 500 index’sintraweek range was almost 4%. It ended up rising four out of five days and finishing up the week 2.6%, at 3,943. The Nasdaq broke a three week losing streak, despite the volatility, riding a big 3.7% Tuesday gain to finish up 3.1% for the week at 13,320.\nRising interest rates—and what they signal about rising inflation—are the reason for the volatility. But higher rates aren’t a signal that investors should sell now. The market could well rise higher still. The stocks leading the market, however, might be a little different than the ones that led it to records in 2020.\nInvestors fear rising rates for two reasons. First, they make it harder to finance businesses. Higher interest expenses means bondholders, and not stockholders, get a bit more of a company’s cash. Second, theyreduce the valueof future cash flow and dividends, hitting growth stocks especially hard.\nYet rates aren’t even all that high. The 10-year Treasury yield has gone from about 1.2% to 1.6% over the past month. Rates were higher than that back in January 2020, before the pandemic. What is really vexing investors is how fast they have risen.\nAt the end of 2020’s third quarter, the 10-year Treasury yield was about 0.7%. On Feb. 16—the date the Nasdaq reached its all-time high—it was 1.3%, a 60-basis-point increase. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.) The Nasdaq rose 21% over that span. Then bond yields went from 1.3% to 1.6% between Feb. 16 and March 8, just after the Nasdaq entered correction territory. That’s a 30-basis-point move in less than a month. The Nasdaq tanked, dropping 10%.\n“When rates creep higher, the market can take that,”Andrew Slimmon, a senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, tellsBarron’s. “The path of rates—the speed at which rates move—is the key question.”\nRates matter, but they can’t explain all the swings of the Nasdaq this past week. U.S. inflation data, for instance, was benign on Wednesday. Consumer prices rose at a slower rate than expected, and bond yields fell. Still, the Nasdaq, which had jumped almost 2% early in the day, gave up all its gains and closed lower.Tesla(ticker: TSLA), ahighflying growth stock, which had risen more than 6% that day, closed down 0.8%.\nThe reason? “Investors were worried about being overweight growth stocks,” says Slimmon. Growth stocks have trounced value stocks for years, but more recentlyvalue has made a comeback. TheRussell 1000 Value index,for instance, is up about 11% year to date. TheRussell 1000 Growth indexis down slightly.\nSlimmon sees value stocks continuing their momentum. Analysts’ earnings estimates for the coming year are rising faster among financial and industrial companies than tech names. Such revisions are a useful way to see which sectors are getting better, or worse, and at what rate. Big positive earnings revisions typically mean good things for stocks down the road.\nBrian Rauscher, Fundstrat Global Advisors’ head of global portfolio strategy and asset allocation, also looks at earnings estimate revisions to help clients allocate investment dollars. He’s still bullish. “Accelerating estimate revisions and good [monetary and fiscal] policy do not signal the end of a bull market, even if people feel uncomfortable,” he says.\nMost of his clients feel agitated right now, Rauscher says. Growth managers want to know if they should buy the recent dip. Value managers wonder if they should ride the recent rally further. For him, tech stocks aren’t dead, but value-oriented, cyclical stocks such as industrial companies, financials, materials producers, and travel companies look even more attractive.\nMarketwide valuations area little high, he acknowledges. That’s another risk his clients are worried about. “Elevated, not stretched,” is how Rauscher characterizes the situation. “Is the market above fair value? Sure. Is it ridiculous? No.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1154,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}