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2021-04-02

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March jobs report preview: Economists look for 'blowout month for reemployment' amid vaccine rollout, spring

The U.S. economy likely brought back the most jobs in five months in March, presaging even faster em

March jobs report preview: Economists look for 'blowout month for reemployment' amid vaccine rollout, spring

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Here are the main metrics expected from the report, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p><b>Change in non-farm payrolls:</b> +650,000 expected vs. +379,000 in February</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Unemployment rate:</b> 6.0% expected vs. 6.2% in February</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Average hourly earnings, month-over-month</b>: +0.1% expected, +0.2% in February</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Average hourly earnings, year-over-year:</b> +4.5% expected, +5.3% in February</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>The range of estimates for March payroll growth spanned wider. Prognosticators have had to predict the extent of the rebound after February's harsh weather, and quantify the pick-up in hiring due to easing social distancing restrictions, increasing vaccinations and renewed aid from Congress's latest stimulus package. On the high end, Bank of America and TD Securities each forecast 1 million non-farm payrolls were added back in March. On the low end, Southbay Research and Fact and Opinion Economics forecast job growth would decelerate in March, with payroll gains of 232,000 and 350,000, respectively.</p>\n<p>Still, the vast majority of economists expect that rehiring accelerated last month. High frequency data including new weekly jobless claims have reflected a clear downward trend in the number of those newly unemployed. And earlier this week, ADP's March private payrolls report showed the most jobs added back since September, and the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index pointed to rising employment trends in the goods-producing sector.</p>\n<p>\"We think several factors justify a strong employment forecast for March. Among the most important are vaccinations and declining COVID case counts, which have led states to ease restrictions,\" Barclays economist Michael Gapen wrote in a note. \"Progress on vaccinations likely helped fuel the pick-up in hiring in February, where 379K employees were added to payrolls, with the vast majority of those coming in leisure and hospitality. We suspect that this trend improved further in March.\"</p>\n<p>\"Altogether, we think these factors suggest a blowout month for reemployment,\" he added.</p>\n<p>Growth in the services sector, however, will be among the most closely watched areas in Friday's report, given the outsized job losses that took place across high contact industries over the course of the pandemic. Leisure and hospitality payrolls rose by 355,000 in February, though the advances did not fully offset the decline of more than half a million jobs in these industries between December and January. Leisure and hospitality industries remained 3.6 million payrolls short of their pre-pandemic levels from February 2020, representing the hardest-hit industry tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Overall, the U.S. economy remained nearly 10 million jobs short of its pre-COVID levels as of last month.</p>\n<p>\"The factors that point to a rebound in March spending data (improved mobility metrics, lower hospitalizations and deaths) should spur further momentum in private-sector hiring, especially in services,\" UBS economist Seth Carpenter wrote in a note. \"The state-level data show a correlation between job growth and each mobility metric and hospitalization rates. These relationships give us confidence that more supportive conditions for rehiring will translate into that rehiring.\"</p>\n<p>Average hourly earnings growth likely slowed over last month and last year, reflecting the reentry of lower-wage services workers back into the labor force. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to have fallen to a pandemic-era low of 6.0%, ticking down by 0.2 percentage points from February's levels. That jobless rate, however, would still remain above the 50-year low of 3.5% the U.S. economy saw in February last year, underscoring the distance still left for the economy to make up. In their latest projections, members of the Federal Open Market Committee suggested the U.S. labor market would return to a 3.5% jobless rate by the end of 2023.</p>\n<p></p>","source":"yahoofinance_au","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>March jobs report preview: Economists look for 'blowout month for reemployment' amid vaccine rollout, spring</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarch jobs report preview: Economists look for 'blowout month for reemployment' amid vaccine rollout, spring\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-02 17:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/march-jobs-report-labor-market-pandemic-unemployment-payrolls-181729856.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The U.S. economy likely brought back the most jobs in five months in March, presaging even faster employment growth in the coming months as more Americans become vaccinated and jobs across industries ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/march-jobs-report-labor-market-pandemic-unemployment-payrolls-181729856.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY.AU":"SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/march-jobs-report-labor-market-pandemic-unemployment-payrolls-181729856.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2124388787","content_text":"The U.S. economy likely brought back the most jobs in five months in March, presaging even faster employment growth in the coming months as more Americans become vaccinated and jobs across industries return.\nThe Department of Labor will release its March employment report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here are the main metrics expected from the report, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:\n\nChange in non-farm payrolls: +650,000 expected vs. +379,000 in February\nUnemployment rate: 6.0% expected vs. 6.2% in February\nAverage hourly earnings, month-over-month: +0.1% expected, +0.2% in February\nAverage hourly earnings, year-over-year: +4.5% expected, +5.3% in February\n\nThe range of estimates for March payroll growth spanned wider. Prognosticators have had to predict the extent of the rebound after February's harsh weather, and quantify the pick-up in hiring due to easing social distancing restrictions, increasing vaccinations and renewed aid from Congress's latest stimulus package. On the high end, Bank of America and TD Securities each forecast 1 million non-farm payrolls were added back in March. On the low end, Southbay Research and Fact and Opinion Economics forecast job growth would decelerate in March, with payroll gains of 232,000 and 350,000, respectively.\nStill, the vast majority of economists expect that rehiring accelerated last month. High frequency data including new weekly jobless claims have reflected a clear downward trend in the number of those newly unemployed. And earlier this week, ADP's March private payrolls report showed the most jobs added back since September, and the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index pointed to rising employment trends in the goods-producing sector.\n\"We think several factors justify a strong employment forecast for March. Among the most important are vaccinations and declining COVID case counts, which have led states to ease restrictions,\" Barclays economist Michael Gapen wrote in a note. \"Progress on vaccinations likely helped fuel the pick-up in hiring in February, where 379K employees were added to payrolls, with the vast majority of those coming in leisure and hospitality. We suspect that this trend improved further in March.\"\n\"Altogether, we think these factors suggest a blowout month for reemployment,\" he added.\nGrowth in the services sector, however, will be among the most closely watched areas in Friday's report, given the outsized job losses that took place across high contact industries over the course of the pandemic. Leisure and hospitality payrolls rose by 355,000 in February, though the advances did not fully offset the decline of more than half a million jobs in these industries between December and January. Leisure and hospitality industries remained 3.6 million payrolls short of their pre-pandemic levels from February 2020, representing the hardest-hit industry tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Overall, the U.S. economy remained nearly 10 million jobs short of its pre-COVID levels as of last month.\n\"The factors that point to a rebound in March spending data (improved mobility metrics, lower hospitalizations and deaths) should spur further momentum in private-sector hiring, especially in services,\" UBS economist Seth Carpenter wrote in a note. \"The state-level data show a correlation between job growth and each mobility metric and hospitalization rates. These relationships give us confidence that more supportive conditions for rehiring will translate into that rehiring.\"\nAverage hourly earnings growth likely slowed over last month and last year, reflecting the reentry of lower-wage services workers back into the labor force. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to have fallen to a pandemic-era low of 6.0%, ticking down by 0.2 percentage points from February's levels. That jobless rate, however, would still remain above the 50-year low of 3.5% the U.S. economy saw in February last year, underscoring the distance still left for the economy to make up. In their latest projections, members of the Federal Open Market Committee suggested the U.S. labor market would return to a 3.5% jobless rate by the end of 2023.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY.AU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1842,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":20,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}