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2021-04-12

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How much higher will this bull market go?<blockquote>这轮牛市会涨到多高？</blockquote>

The lessons of past U.S. bull marketsErnesto Benavides/AFP via Getty ImagesThis bull market's strong

How much higher will this bull market go?<blockquote>这轮牛市会涨到多高？</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":342663856,"tweetId":"342663856","gmtCreate":1618211362675,"gmtModify":1634294403745,"author":{"id":3566052363001307,"idStr":"3566052363001307","authorId":3566052363001307,"authorIdStr":"3566052363001307","name":"ytryy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Like&nbsp; &amp; comment pls</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Like&nbsp; &amp; comment pls</body></html>","text":"Like & comment pls","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342663856","repostId":2126035702,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2126035702","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1618189189,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2126035702?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-12 08:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How much higher will this bull market go?<blockquote>这轮牛市会涨到多高？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2126035702","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The lessons of past U.S. bull marketsErnesto Benavides/AFP via Getty ImagesThis bull market's strong","content":"The lessons of past U.S. bull markets<blockquote>美国过去牛市的教训</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a880e4a04ded029efefe9b3e3d87dc06\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ernesto Benavides/AFP via Getty Images<blockquote>埃内斯托·贝纳维德斯/法新社，盖蒂图片社</blockquote>This bull market's strongest gains are behind us.<blockquote>本轮牛市最强劲的涨幅已经过去。</blockquote>That's the conclusion I reached upon analyzing all U.S. bull markets since 1900. The good news is that, assuming the future is like the past, the current bull market still has more months of life in store. The bad news is that the stock market's gains during those months are likely to be far more modest than what we've gotten used to over the last 12 months.<blockquote>这是我在分析1900年以来所有美国牛市后得出的结论。好消息是，假设未来像过去一样，当前的牛市还有更多几个月的生命。坏消息是，这几个月股市的涨幅可能比我们过去12个月所习惯的要温和得多。</blockquote>This suggests that we should not extrapolate the last 12 months' gains into the future.<blockquote>这表明我们不应该将过去12个月的涨幅外推到未来。</blockquote>My analysis takes issue with those analysts who argue that the stock market's strength over the last 12 months is a bullish omen. In fact there's nothing particularly unusual about how strong the market was coming off its March 23, 2020, low.<blockquote>我的分析对那些认为股市过去12个月的走强是看涨预兆的分析师提出了质疑。事实上，市场从2020年3月23日的低点走出的强劲程度并没有什么特别不寻常的。</blockquote>That may seem hard to believe, given that the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained an incredible 74.4% over the 12 months from that low. But there actually are three other bull markets since 1900 in the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research in which the Dow rose even more over the 12 months subsequent to their beginnings. The bull market that began following the Great Financial Crisis was not <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of those three, but it came close: In the 12 months following the Mar. 9, 2009, low, for example, the DJIA gained 61.4%.<blockquote>这似乎令人难以置信，因为道琼斯工业平均指数在12个月内从该低点上涨了令人难以置信的74.4%。但实际上，在内德·戴维斯研究公司（Ned Davis Research）维护的日历中，自1900年以来还有另外三次牛市，道琼斯指数在开始后的12个月内涨幅更大。大金融危机后开始的牛市并不是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>在这三个国家中，但已经接近了：例如，在2009年3月9日低点之后的12个月里，道琼斯上涨了61.4%。</blockquote>The general pattern is that bull markets typically are strongest right after they're born: More than half of bull markets' total gains are produced in their first 12 months, on average. Consider the average bull market in the Ned Davis calendar. Not counting the current <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, there were 37 since 1900. Of them, nine--or 24%--didn't make it to their first birthdays. The remaining 28 lived to be 2.7 years old and during them the DJIA gained a total of 93.9%. If the current bull market is \"average,\" therefore, it will continue until November of next year--but produce only a modest gain from now until then.<blockquote>一般模式是，牛市通常在诞生后最强劲：平均而言，牛市总收益的一半以上是在前12个月产生的。考虑一下内德·戴维斯日历中的平均牛市。不算电流<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>自1900年以来有37个。其中，9人（24%）没能活到一岁生日。剩下的28只活到了2.7岁，在此期间，道琼斯总共增加了93.9%。因此，如果当前的牛市“一般”，它将持续到明年11月，但从现在到那时只会产生适度的收益。</blockquote>Furthermore, the market's prospects may actually be more subdued because of its first-12-months strength. That's because there is a weak inverse correlation between a bull market's return it its first 12 months and how strong it is thereafter: Bull markets with the strongest first years tend not to last as long, or rise as far, as those bull markets that are slower to take off. (Note that this correlation is statistically weak, however, so you shouldn't make too much of it.)<blockquote>此外，由于前12个月的强势，市场前景实际上可能更加黯淡。这是因为牛市在前12个月的回报与此后的强劲程度之间存在微弱的负相关：第一年最强劲的牛市往往不会像那些牛市那样持续那么长时间或上涨那么远起飞速度较慢。（不过，请注意，这种相关性在统计上很弱，所以你不应该过分强调它。）</blockquote>What stock market return should you expect going forward?<blockquote>未来你应该期待什么样的股市回报？</blockquote>What future equity return, then, should retirees and near-retirees assume in constructing their financial plans?<blockquote>那么，退休人员和接近退休人员在制定财务计划时应该假设什么样的未来股权回报呢？</blockquote>The efficient market hypothesis <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EMH.UK\">$(EMH.UK)$</a> tells us that the stock market's expected return at any given time is independent of what has happened up until that point. That's because the stock market is a forward-looking, discounting mechanism. So its future return will be a function of whether the future turns out to be better or worse than what is currently anticipated--not by how the market has performed up until now.<blockquote>有效市场假说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EMH.UK\">$(EMH.UK)$</a>告诉我们，股票市场在任何给定时间的预期回报都与该时间之前发生的事情无关。这是因为股票市场是一种前瞻性的贴现机制。因此，它未来的回报将取决于未来是比目前预期的更好还是更差，而不是取决于市场迄今为止的表现。</blockquote>The stock market's has produced an inflation-adjusted total return of 6.0% annualized since 1793, according to research conducted by Edward McQuarrie, a professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University . So if you were agnostic about where we are in the stock market's cycle, and assuming the future is like the past, that's the expected return to imbed in your financial plans.<blockquote>根据圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里(Edward McQuarrie)进行的研究，自1793年以来，股市经通胀调整后的年化总回报率为6.0%。因此，如果您不知道我们在股市周期中所处的位置，并假设未来与过去一样，那么这就是您财务计划中的预期回报。</blockquote>You may not adhere to the EMH, of course. Or you may worry that, since the stock market is overvalued currently according to any of a number of valuation measures, its expected return going forward is lower than average. I share that worry, as I have written in recent columns .<blockquote>当然，你可能不会坚持有效市场假说。或者您可能会担心，由于根据多种估值指标中的任何一种，股市目前被高估，因此其未来的预期回报低于平均水平。正如我在最近的专栏中所写的那样，我也有同样的担忧。</blockquote>But even if you don't lower your expected return assumption because of overvaluation concerns, notice that the expected equity return you should include in your financial plan rises only to 6.0% annualized on an inflation- and dividend-adjusted basis. That's still far short of what the stock market produced over the last 12 months.<blockquote>但即使您没有因为高估担忧而降低预期回报假设，请注意，在通胀和股息调整后，您应该包含在财务计划中的预期股权回报率年化仅升至6.0%。这仍远低于股市过去12个月的表现。</blockquote>Trees don't grow to the sky, as John Maynard Keynes wrote a century ago. We forget that at our peril.<blockquote>正如约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯一个世纪前所写的那样，树木不会长到天空。我们忘记了这一点，后果自负。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How much higher will this bull market go?<blockquote>这轮牛市会涨到多高？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow much higher will this bull market go?<blockquote>这轮牛市会涨到多高？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-04-12 08:59\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe lessons of past U.S. bull markets<blockquote>美国过去牛市的教训</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a880e4a04ded029efefe9b3e3d87dc06\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ernesto Benavides/AFP via Getty Images<blockquote>埃内斯托·贝纳维德斯/法新社，盖蒂图片社</blockquote>This bull market's strongest gains are behind us.<blockquote>本轮牛市最强劲的涨幅已经过去。</blockquote>That's the conclusion I reached upon analyzing all U.S. bull markets since 1900. The good news is that, assuming the future is like the past, the current bull market still has more months of life in store. The bad news is that the stock market's gains during those months are likely to be far more modest than what we've gotten used to over the last 12 months.<blockquote>这是我在分析1900年以来所有美国牛市后得出的结论。好消息是，假设未来像过去一样，当前的牛市还有更多几个月的生命。坏消息是，这几个月股市的涨幅可能比我们过去12个月所习惯的要温和得多。</blockquote>This suggests that we should not extrapolate the last 12 months' gains into the future.<blockquote>这表明我们不应该将过去12个月的涨幅外推到未来。</blockquote>My analysis takes issue with those analysts who argue that the stock market's strength over the last 12 months is a bullish omen. In fact there's nothing particularly unusual about how strong the market was coming off its March 23, 2020, low.<blockquote>我的分析对那些认为股市过去12个月的走强是看涨预兆的分析师提出了质疑。事实上，市场从2020年3月23日的低点走出的强劲程度并没有什么特别不寻常的。</blockquote>That may seem hard to believe, given that the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained an incredible 74.4% over the 12 months from that low. But there actually are three other bull markets since 1900 in the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research in which the Dow rose even more over the 12 months subsequent to their beginnings. The bull market that began following the Great Financial Crisis was not <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of those three, but it came close: In the 12 months following the Mar. 9, 2009, low, for example, the DJIA gained 61.4%.<blockquote>这似乎令人难以置信，因为道琼斯工业平均指数在12个月内从该低点上涨了令人难以置信的74.4%。但实际上，在内德·戴维斯研究公司（Ned Davis Research）维护的日历中，自1900年以来还有另外三次牛市，道琼斯指数在开始后的12个月内涨幅更大。大金融危机后开始的牛市并不是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>在这三个国家中，但已经接近了：例如，在2009年3月9日低点之后的12个月里，道琼斯上涨了61.4%。</blockquote>The general pattern is that bull markets typically are strongest right after they're born: More than half of bull markets' total gains are produced in their first 12 months, on average. Consider the average bull market in the Ned Davis calendar. Not counting the current <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, there were 37 since 1900. Of them, nine--or 24%--didn't make it to their first birthdays. The remaining 28 lived to be 2.7 years old and during them the DJIA gained a total of 93.9%. If the current bull market is \"average,\" therefore, it will continue until November of next year--but produce only a modest gain from now until then.<blockquote>一般模式是，牛市通常在诞生后最强劲：平均而言，牛市总收益的一半以上是在前12个月产生的。考虑一下内德·戴维斯日历中的平均牛市。不算电流<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>自1900年以来有37个。其中，9人（24%）没能活到一岁生日。剩下的28只活到了2.7岁，在此期间，道琼斯总共增加了93.9%。因此，如果当前的牛市“一般”，它将持续到明年11月，但从现在到那时只会产生适度的收益。</blockquote>Furthermore, the market's prospects may actually be more subdued because of its first-12-months strength. That's because there is a weak inverse correlation between a bull market's return it its first 12 months and how strong it is thereafter: Bull markets with the strongest first years tend not to last as long, or rise as far, as those bull markets that are slower to take off. (Note that this correlation is statistically weak, however, so you shouldn't make too much of it.)<blockquote>此外，由于前12个月的强势，市场前景实际上可能更加黯淡。这是因为牛市在前12个月的回报与此后的强劲程度之间存在微弱的负相关：第一年最强劲的牛市往往不会像那些牛市那样持续那么长时间或上涨那么远起飞速度较慢。（不过，请注意，这种相关性在统计上很弱，所以你不应该过分强调它。）</blockquote>What stock market return should you expect going forward?<blockquote>未来你应该期待什么样的股市回报？</blockquote>What future equity return, then, should retirees and near-retirees assume in constructing their financial plans?<blockquote>那么，退休人员和接近退休人员在制定财务计划时应该假设什么样的未来股权回报呢？</blockquote>The efficient market hypothesis <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EMH.UK\">$(EMH.UK)$</a> tells us that the stock market's expected return at any given time is independent of what has happened up until that point. That's because the stock market is a forward-looking, discounting mechanism. So its future return will be a function of whether the future turns out to be better or worse than what is currently anticipated--not by how the market has performed up until now.<blockquote>有效市场假说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EMH.UK\">$(EMH.UK)$</a>告诉我们，股票市场在任何给定时间的预期回报都与该时间之前发生的事情无关。这是因为股票市场是一种前瞻性的贴现机制。因此，它未来的回报将取决于未来是比目前预期的更好还是更差，而不是取决于市场迄今为止的表现。</blockquote>The stock market's has produced an inflation-adjusted total return of 6.0% annualized since 1793, according to research conducted by Edward McQuarrie, a professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University . So if you were agnostic about where we are in the stock market's cycle, and assuming the future is like the past, that's the expected return to imbed in your financial plans.<blockquote>根据圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里(Edward McQuarrie)进行的研究，自1793年以来，股市经通胀调整后的年化总回报率为6.0%。因此，如果您不知道我们在股市周期中所处的位置，并假设未来与过去一样，那么这就是您财务计划中的预期回报。</blockquote>You may not adhere to the EMH, of course. Or you may worry that, since the stock market is overvalued currently according to any of a number of valuation measures, its expected return going forward is lower than average. I share that worry, as I have written in recent columns .<blockquote>当然，你可能不会坚持有效市场假说。或者您可能会担心，由于根据多种估值指标中的任何一种，股市目前被高估，因此其未来的预期回报低于平均水平。正如我在最近的专栏中所写的那样，我也有同样的担忧。</blockquote>But even if you don't lower your expected return assumption because of overvaluation concerns, notice that the expected equity return you should include in your financial plan rises only to 6.0% annualized on an inflation- and dividend-adjusted basis. That's still far short of what the stock market produced over the last 12 months.<blockquote>但即使您没有因为高估担忧而降低预期回报假设，请注意，在通胀和股息调整后，您应该包含在财务计划中的预期股权回报率年化仅升至6.0%。这仍远低于股市过去12个月的表现。</blockquote>Trees don't grow to the sky, as John Maynard Keynes wrote a century ago. We forget that at our peril.<blockquote>正如约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯一个世纪前所写的那样，树木不会长到天空。我们忘记了这一点，后果自负。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-much-higher-will-this-bull-market-go-11617981444?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-much-higher-will-this-bull-market-go-11617981444?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2126035702","content_text":"The lessons of past U.S. bull marketsErnesto Benavides/AFP via Getty ImagesThis bull market's strongest gains are behind us.That's the conclusion I reached upon analyzing all U.S. bull markets since 1900. The good news is that, assuming the future is like the past, the current bull market still has more months of life in store. The bad news is that the stock market's gains during those months are likely to be far more modest than what we've gotten used to over the last 12 months.This suggests that we should not extrapolate the last 12 months' gains into the future.My analysis takes issue with those analysts who argue that the stock market's strength over the last 12 months is a bullish omen. In fact there's nothing particularly unusual about how strong the market was coming off its March 23, 2020, low.That may seem hard to believe, given that the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained an incredible 74.4% over the 12 months from that low. But there actually are three other bull markets since 1900 in the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research in which the Dow rose even more over the 12 months subsequent to their beginnings. The bull market that began following the Great Financial Crisis was not one of those three, but it came close: In the 12 months following the Mar. 9, 2009, low, for example, the DJIA gained 61.4%.The general pattern is that bull markets typically are strongest right after they're born: More than half of bull markets' total gains are produced in their first 12 months, on average. Consider the average bull market in the Ned Davis calendar. Not counting the current one, there were 37 since 1900. Of them, nine--or 24%--didn't make it to their first birthdays. The remaining 28 lived to be 2.7 years old and during them the DJIA gained a total of 93.9%. If the current bull market is \"average,\" therefore, it will continue until November of next year--but produce only a modest gain from now until then.Furthermore, the market's prospects may actually be more subdued because of its first-12-months strength. That's because there is a weak inverse correlation between a bull market's return it its first 12 months and how strong it is thereafter: Bull markets with the strongest first years tend not to last as long, or rise as far, as those bull markets that are slower to take off. (Note that this correlation is statistically weak, however, so you shouldn't make too much of it.)What stock market return should you expect going forward?What future equity return, then, should retirees and near-retirees assume in constructing their financial plans?The efficient market hypothesis $(EMH.UK)$ tells us that the stock market's expected return at any given time is independent of what has happened up until that point. That's because the stock market is a forward-looking, discounting mechanism. So its future return will be a function of whether the future turns out to be better or worse than what is currently anticipated--not by how the market has performed up until now.The stock market's has produced an inflation-adjusted total return of 6.0% annualized since 1793, according to research conducted by Edward McQuarrie, a professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University . So if you were agnostic about where we are in the stock market's cycle, and assuming the future is like the past, that's the expected return to imbed in your financial plans.You may not adhere to the EMH, of course. Or you may worry that, since the stock market is overvalued currently according to any of a number of valuation measures, its expected return going forward is lower than average. I share that worry, as I have written in recent columns .But even if you don't lower your expected return assumption because of overvaluation concerns, notice that the expected equity return you should include in your financial plan rises only to 6.0% annualized on an inflation- and dividend-adjusted basis. That's still far short of what the stock market produced over the last 12 months.Trees don't grow to the sky, as John Maynard Keynes wrote a century ago. We forget that at our peril.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DJX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3701,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":15,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

How much higher will this bull market go?<blockquote>这轮牛市会涨到多高？</blockquote>

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