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2021-03-19

This is the key question that will determine whether stimulus money overheats the economy<blockquote>这是决定刺激资金是否会使经济过热的关键问题</blockquote>

Critical information for the trading day.The question still reverberating in financial markets is to

This is the key question that will determine whether stimulus money overheats the economy<blockquote>这是决定刺激资金是否会使经济过热的关键问题</blockquote>

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Studies have shown that the propensity to spend out of wealth is just 5%, while the propensity to spend out of income ranges from 10% to 50%, according to a recent speech from Gertjan Vlieghe, a voting member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.<blockquote>另一种看待它的方式是，家庭是否认为刺激是额外的收入或额外的财富。根据英国央行货币政策委员会投票成员格特简·弗利葛最近的讲话，研究表明，出于财富的支出倾向仅为5%，而出于收入的支出倾向为10%至50%。</blockquote>Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research, says whether the new stimulus is considered wealth or income depends on whether the household receiving it has a low or high income to begin with. But looking at past stimulus checks, there weren’t meaningful shifts in either consumption or inflation.<blockquote>BCA Research首席策略师达瓦尔·乔希(Dhaval Joshi)表示，新的刺激措施是被视为财富还是收入，取决于接受刺激的家庭一开始的收入是低还是高。但看看过去的刺激检查，消费或通胀都没有发生有意义的变化。</blockquote>Accordingly, he thinks market expectations about inflation are getting carried away. He also says — in a note written before Thursday’s plunge in crude-oil prices — that inflation expectations are positively correlated with high commodity prices, even though actual inflation tends to drop when commodity prices are high.<blockquote>因此，他认为市场对通胀的预期正在被冲昏头脑。他还在周四原油价格暴跌前撰写的一份报告中表示，通胀预期与高大宗商品价格正相关，尽管当大宗商品价格高企时，实际通胀往往会下降。</blockquote>“Given that the bond market is useless at predicting inflation, it is also useless at assessing real interest rates,” he says. If the bond market is exaggerating the future level of inflation, than the correct inflation-adjusted bond yield should be even higher. “The important takeaway right now is that in any comparison with the real bond yield, equities and other risk-assets are even more expensive than they appear.”<blockquote>“鉴于债券市场在预测通胀方面毫无用处，它在评估实际利率方面也毫无用处，”他说。如果债券市场夸大了未来的通胀水平，那么正确的经通胀调整的债券收益率应该更高。“目前重要的一点是，与实际债券收益率相比，股票和其他风险资产甚至比看起来更昂贵。”</blockquote>Frosty talks in China<blockquote>中国的冷淡谈判</blockquote>Talks between the U.S. and China got off to a frosty start in Alaska, with public criticism made by each side in opening remarks.<blockquote>美国和中国在阿拉斯加的会谈开局冷淡，双方在开场白中都提出了公开批评。</blockquote>FedEx FDX, -0.88% may climb after the delivery service said fiscal third-quarter earnings rose by more than analysts anticipated and guided for a stronger current quarter than expected.<blockquote>联邦快递FDX,-0.88%可能会攀升，此前该快递服务公司表示第三财季盈利增幅超出分析师预期，并预计本季度盈利将强于预期。</blockquote>Nike NKE, -1.14% may slip after the apparel maker reported slower sales growth than expected in its fiscal third quarter.<blockquote>耐克NKE(-1.14%)可能会下滑，此前该服装制造商公布第三财季销售增长慢于预期。</blockquote>Chubb CB, -2.63% has made a $65 per share offer to buy rival insurer Hartford Financial Services Group HIG, +18.71%.<blockquote>Chubb CB,-2.63%已提出每股65美元的收购竞争对手保险公司Hartford Financial Services Group HIG,+18.71%。</blockquote>The Bank of Japan removed targets for purchasing exchange-traded funds and real-estate investment trusts and widened the band it will allow 10 year bonds to trade in.<blockquote>日本央行取消了购买交易所交易基金和房地产投资信托的目标，并扩大了允许10年期债券交易的范围。</blockquote>Oil recovering, a little<blockquote>石油正在恢复，一点点</blockquote>After the 7% plunge in crude-oil prices on Thursday, light-sweet crude futures CL.1, 0.50% were a bit higher. Analysts at UBS say to focus on the pace of COVID-19 vaccinations, which should help ease restrictions and support oil demand.<blockquote>周四原油价格暴跌7%后，轻质低硫原油期货CL.1, 0.50%小幅上涨。瑞银分析师表示，要关注COVID-19疫苗接种的速度，这应该有助于放松限制并支持石油需求。</blockquote>The yield on the 10-year Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.701% fell slightly to 1.69%. U.S. stock futures ES00, 0.29% NQ00, 0.53% were higher.<blockquote>10年期国债TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.701%的收益率小幅下跌至1.69%。美股期货ES00、0.29%NQ00、0.53%走高。</blockquote>Bitcoin flows mirror stock flows<blockquote>比特币流量反映股票流量</blockquote>Is bitcoin BTCUSD, 1.62% a diversifier? It is a huge debate in markets, that several major banks have taken on in just the last two weeks. Sven Henrich, the technical analyst who runs the Northman Trader website, produced this chart, showing that correlation between the weekly flows into bitcoin and stocks is at the highest level ever.<blockquote>比特币BTCUSD, 1.62%是多元化投资吗？这是市场上的一场大辩论，几家主要银行在过去两周内就开始了这场辩论。运营Northman Trader网站的技术分析师Sven Henrich制作了这张图表，显示每周流入比特币的资金与股市之间的相关性处于有史以来的最高水平。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This is the key question that will determine whether stimulus money overheats the economy<blockquote>这是决定刺激资金是否会使经济过热的关键问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis is the key question that will determine whether stimulus money overheats the economy<blockquote>这是决定刺激资金是否会使经济过热的关键问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nmarketwatch2021-03-19 19:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nCritical information for the trading day.The question still reverberating in financial markets is to what degree the $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief will be spent, either immediately or if the virus recedes enough for shoppers to be allowed, and wanting, to go out.<blockquote>交易日的关键信息。金融市场上仍在回响的问题是，1.9万亿美元的冠状病毒救助将在多大程度上支出，要么立即支出，要么病毒消退到足以让购物者被允许并愿意外出。</blockquote>This column previously pointed to surveys of both how the initial $600 stimulus was used, and plans for the $1,400 that has arrived for many households, to suggest much of it won’t be deployed into the economy.<blockquote>本专栏此前指出，对最初600美元刺激计划的使用情况以及许多家庭收到的1,400美元计划的调查表明，其中大部分不会部署到经济中。</blockquote>Another way to look at it is if households perceive the stimulus to be additional income or additional wealth. Studies have shown that the propensity to spend out of wealth is just 5%, while the propensity to spend out of income ranges from 10% to 50%, according to a recent speech from Gertjan Vlieghe, a voting member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.<blockquote>另一种看待它的方式是，家庭是否认为刺激是额外的收入或额外的财富。根据英国央行货币政策委员会投票成员格特简·弗利葛最近的讲话，研究表明，出于财富的支出倾向仅为5%，而出于收入的支出倾向为10%至50%。</blockquote>Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research, says whether the new stimulus is considered wealth or income depends on whether the household receiving it has a low or high income to begin with. But looking at past stimulus checks, there weren’t meaningful shifts in either consumption or inflation.<blockquote>BCA Research首席策略师达瓦尔·乔希(Dhaval Joshi)表示，新的刺激措施是被视为财富还是收入，取决于接受刺激的家庭一开始的收入是低还是高。但看看过去的刺激检查，消费或通胀都没有发生有意义的变化。</blockquote>Accordingly, he thinks market expectations about inflation are getting carried away. He also says — in a note written before Thursday’s plunge in crude-oil prices — that inflation expectations are positively correlated with high commodity prices, even though actual inflation tends to drop when commodity prices are high.<blockquote>因此，他认为市场对通胀的预期正在被冲昏头脑。他还在周四原油价格暴跌前撰写的一份报告中表示，通胀预期与高大宗商品价格正相关，尽管当大宗商品价格高企时，实际通胀往往会下降。</blockquote>“Given that the bond market is useless at predicting inflation, it is also useless at assessing real interest rates,” he says. If the bond market is exaggerating the future level of inflation, than the correct inflation-adjusted bond yield should be even higher. “The important takeaway right now is that in any comparison with the real bond yield, equities and other risk-assets are even more expensive than they appear.”<blockquote>“鉴于债券市场在预测通胀方面毫无用处，它在评估实际利率方面也毫无用处，”他说。如果债券市场夸大了未来的通胀水平，那么正确的经通胀调整的债券收益率应该更高。“目前重要的一点是，与实际债券收益率相比，股票和其他风险资产甚至比看起来更昂贵。”</blockquote>Frosty talks in China<blockquote>中国的冷淡谈判</blockquote>Talks between the U.S. and China got off to a frosty start in Alaska, with public criticism made by each side in opening remarks.<blockquote>美国和中国在阿拉斯加的会谈开局冷淡，双方在开场白中都提出了公开批评。</blockquote>FedEx FDX, -0.88% may climb after the delivery service said fiscal third-quarter earnings rose by more than analysts anticipated and guided for a stronger current quarter than expected.<blockquote>联邦快递FDX,-0.88%可能会攀升，此前该快递服务公司表示第三财季盈利增幅超出分析师预期，并预计本季度盈利将强于预期。</blockquote>Nike NKE, -1.14% may slip after the apparel maker reported slower sales growth than expected in its fiscal third quarter.<blockquote>耐克NKE(-1.14%)可能会下滑，此前该服装制造商公布第三财季销售增长慢于预期。</blockquote>Chubb CB, -2.63% has made a $65 per share offer to buy rival insurer Hartford Financial Services Group HIG, +18.71%.<blockquote>Chubb CB,-2.63%已提出每股65美元的收购竞争对手保险公司Hartford Financial Services Group HIG,+18.71%。</blockquote>The Bank of Japan removed targets for purchasing exchange-traded funds and real-estate investment trusts and widened the band it will allow 10 year bonds to trade in.<blockquote>日本央行取消了购买交易所交易基金和房地产投资信托的目标，并扩大了允许10年期债券交易的范围。</blockquote>Oil recovering, a little<blockquote>石油正在恢复，一点点</blockquote>After the 7% plunge in crude-oil prices on Thursday, light-sweet crude futures CL.1, 0.50% were a bit higher. Analysts at UBS say to focus on the pace of COVID-19 vaccinations, which should help ease restrictions and support oil demand.<blockquote>周四原油价格暴跌7%后，轻质低硫原油期货CL.1, 0.50%小幅上涨。瑞银分析师表示，要关注COVID-19疫苗接种的速度，这应该有助于放松限制并支持石油需求。</blockquote>The yield on the 10-year Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.701% fell slightly to 1.69%. U.S. stock futures ES00, 0.29% NQ00, 0.53% were higher.<blockquote>10年期国债TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.701%的收益率小幅下跌至1.69%。美股期货ES00、0.29%NQ00、0.53%走高。</blockquote>Bitcoin flows mirror stock flows<blockquote>比特币流量反映股票流量</blockquote>Is bitcoin BTCUSD, 1.62% a diversifier? It is a huge debate in markets, that several major banks have taken on in just the last two weeks. Sven Henrich, the technical analyst who runs the Northman Trader website, produced this chart, showing that correlation between the weekly flows into bitcoin and stocks is at the highest level ever.<blockquote>比特币BTCUSD, 1.62%是多元化投资吗？这是市场上的一场大辩论，几家主要银行在过去两周内就开始了这场辩论。运营Northman Trader网站的技术分析师Sven Henrich制作了这张图表，显示每周流入比特币的资金与股市之间的相关性处于有史以来的最高水平。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-the-key-question-that-will-determine-whether-stimulus-money-overheats-the-economy-11616150658?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-the-key-question-that-will-determine-whether-stimulus-money-overheats-the-economy-11616150658?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1197492329","content_text":"Critical information for the trading day.The question still reverberating in financial markets is to what degree the $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief will be spent, either immediately or if the virus recedes enough for shoppers to be allowed, and wanting, to go out.This column previously pointed to surveys of both how the initial $600 stimulus was used, and plans for the $1,400 that has arrived for many households, to suggest much of it won’t be deployed into the economy.Another way to look at it is if households perceive the stimulus to be additional income or additional wealth. Studies have shown that the propensity to spend out of wealth is just 5%, while the propensity to spend out of income ranges from 10% to 50%, according to a recent speech from Gertjan Vlieghe, a voting member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research, says whether the new stimulus is considered wealth or income depends on whether the household receiving it has a low or high income to begin with. But looking at past stimulus checks, there weren’t meaningful shifts in either consumption or inflation.Accordingly, he thinks market expectations about inflation are getting carried away. He also says — in a note written before Thursday’s plunge in crude-oil prices — that inflation expectations are positively correlated with high commodity prices, even though actual inflation tends to drop when commodity prices are high.“Given that the bond market is useless at predicting inflation, it is also useless at assessing real interest rates,” he says. If the bond market is exaggerating the future level of inflation, than the correct inflation-adjusted bond yield should be even higher. “The important takeaway right now is that in any comparison with the real bond yield, equities and other risk-assets are even more expensive than they appear.”Frosty talks in ChinaTalks between the U.S. and China got off to a frosty start in Alaska, with public criticism made by each side in opening remarks.FedEx FDX, -0.88% may climb after the delivery service said fiscal third-quarter earnings rose by more than analysts anticipated and guided for a stronger current quarter than expected.Nike NKE, -1.14% may slip after the apparel maker reported slower sales growth than expected in its fiscal third quarter.Chubb CB, -2.63% has made a $65 per share offer to buy rival insurer Hartford Financial Services Group HIG, +18.71%.The Bank of Japan removed targets for purchasing exchange-traded funds and real-estate investment trusts and widened the band it will allow 10 year bonds to trade in.Oil recovering, a littleAfter the 7% plunge in crude-oil prices on Thursday, light-sweet crude futures CL.1, 0.50% were a bit higher. Analysts at UBS say to focus on the pace of COVID-19 vaccinations, which should help ease restrictions and support oil demand.The yield on the 10-year Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.701% fell slightly to 1.69%. U.S. stock futures ES00, 0.29% NQ00, 0.53% were higher.Bitcoin flows mirror stock flowsIs bitcoin BTCUSD, 1.62% a diversifier? It is a huge debate in markets, that several major banks have taken on in just the last two weeks. Sven Henrich, the technical analyst who runs the Northman Trader website, produced this chart, showing that correlation between the weekly flows into bitcoin and stocks is at the highest level ever.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1701,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}