Down, down, down_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

YangL
2021-03-02

Down, down, down

'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming<blockquote>“为我建造一艘方舟”：特斯拉-比特币-凯西·伍德的风险海啸即将到来</blockquote>

Summary: In today's equity update we are following up on our analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark ri

'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming<blockquote>“为我建造一艘方舟”：特斯拉-比特币-凯西·伍德的风险海啸即将到来</blockquote>

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Yesterday, was another bad session for this risk cluster and Ark Invest had a day with outflows across all their ETFs highlighting that risk sentiment has changed. With the founder's bold move to increase the position in Tesla during the week the risk has gone up that this risk cluster could turn into an ugly forced selling dynamic causing pain in not only Tesla, Bitcoin, and Ark funds, but also US biotechnology stocks where Ark Invest is a major holder with high ownership in selected names. A little over a month ago we first flagged the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as something to take note off as short-term correlation between Tesla and Bitcoin was shooting up. A survey from Charles Schwab also confirmed our suspicion that there is a big overlap as these two instruments are among the top five holdings by millennials. Our analysis quickly led us to Ark Invest with its famous Ark Innovation ETF which had a big position in Tesla and its charismatic founder Cathie Wood is a big believer in the so-called disruptive innovation culture of Silicon Valley. This class of people believe firmly in technology as mainly good for society in all its aspects and that&nbsp;Bitcoin is a protection against future wealth confiscation&nbsp;which is most likely inevitable due to historically high wealth inequality.<blockquote>在今天的股票更新中，我们将跟进我们的特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群分析显示了最新的头寸分析、旗舰Ark Innovation ETF的互相关性以及回撤分析。昨天是该风险集群的又一个糟糕交易日，Ark Invest的所有ETF都出现资金外流，突显出风险情绪已经发生变化。随着创始人本周大胆增持特斯拉头寸，这一风险集群可能演变成丑陋的强制抛售动态的风险已经上升，不仅会给特斯拉、比特币和Ark基金带来痛苦，也会给美国生物科技股带来痛苦。Ark Invest是主要持有人，在选定的名称中拥有大量所有权。一个多月前，随着特斯拉和比特币之间的短期相关性不断上升，我们首次将特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群标记为值得注意的问题。嘉信理财的一项调查也证实了我们的怀疑，即存在很大重叠，因为这两种工具是千禧一代持有的前五大工具之一。我们的分析很快让我们找到了Ark Invest及其著名的Ark Innovation ETF，该ETF在特斯拉拥有大量头寸，其魅力四射的创始人Cathie Wood是硅谷所谓颠覆性创新文化的忠实信徒。这一类人坚信技术在各个方面对社会都有好处，比特币是防止未来财富被没收的一种保护，由于历史上高度的财富不平等，这很可能是不可避免的。</blockquote> This disruptive innovation culture is powerful. It is presented by some of the wealthiest people of this planet. Endless presentation about innovation and institutions like the Singularity University promote these views. Behind Bitcoin you find a huge online marketing machine sucking ordinary people into the game. Recently wealthy people such as Elon Musk has openly supported Bitcoin, first in writing and later in action adding $1.5bn to Tesla’s balance sheet and thereby significantly increasing its earnings volatility. The triangle of Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark and their respective momentum has reinforced each other creating a positive feedback loop luring more investors into these instruments. As we have seen this week the ‘tower of risk’ is beginning to show cracks.<blockquote>这种颠覆性的创新文化是强大的。它是由这个星球上一些最富有的人提出的。关于创新和奇点大学等机构的无休止的介绍促进了这些观点。在比特币背后，你会发现一个巨大的在线营销机器，将普通人吸进游戏中。最近，Elon Musk等富人公开支持比特币，先是以书面形式，后来又采取行动，为特斯拉的资产负债表增加了15亿美元，从而显着增加了其盈利波动性。特斯拉-比特币-方舟三角及其各自的势头相互加强，创造了一个正反馈循环，吸引更多投资者进入这些工具。正如我们本周所看到的，“风险之塔”开始出现裂缝。</blockquote> Ark position update and Cathie Wood’s bold move and the risk to biotechnology<blockquote>Ark立场更新和Cathie Wood的大胆举措以及生物技术面临的风险</blockquote> This week Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark all came under pressure from negative voices in governments over Bitcoin and beginning noise over real competition for Tesla in the coming years. The risk cluster was clearly moving together, and correlations started rising. On Tuesday, volatility picked up across the board and at one point Cathie Wood felt it was necessary to go public supporting her funds and said that&nbsp;she had increased their position in Tesla&nbsp;using big numbers in the future to justify increasing the risk. This is a bold move, but it increases the risk considerably. When you are at risk of seeing sizeable outflows, you should start reducing the most illiquid positions first while you can control the situation. Because if you are forced to do it by redemptions the game changes dramatically.<blockquote>本周，特斯拉-比特币-方舟都面临着来自政府对比特币的负面声音的压力，以及未来几年特斯拉真正竞争的噪音。风险集群显然在一起移动，相关性开始上升。周二，波动性全面加剧，凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)一度认为有必要上市支持她的基金，并表示她已经增加了在特斯拉的头寸，并在未来利用大量数据来证明增加风险的合理性。这是一个大胆的举动，但它大大增加了风险。当你面临大量资金外流的风险时，你应该在你能控制局面的时候，首先开始减少流动性最差的头寸。因为如果你被迫这样做，游戏就会发生巨大的变化。</blockquote> The tables below show updated Ark Invest positions as of yesterday’s close. There are still 26 stocks where Ark Invest holds more than 10% of the outstanding shares. This could become a serious problem if Ark Invest is suddenly caught in a negative feedback loop together with Tesla and Bitcoin. But also note how US biotechnology stocks are overrepresented in this list of stocks with high ownership in percentage of outstanding shares. If Ark Invest suddenly experience across the board outflows, like it did yesterday, then they can suddenly be the forced seller in US biotechnology stocks where they are the whale. This could cascade into the overall US biotechnology segment although the group is diverse.<blockquote>下表显示了截至昨天收盘时更新的Ark Invest头寸。Ark Invest持有流通股比例超过10%的个股仍有26只。如果Ark Invest突然与特斯拉和比特币一起陷入负反馈循环，这可能会成为一个严重的问题。但也请注意，美国生物技术股票在这份占流通股比例较高的股票列表中所占比例过高。如果Ark Invest突然经历全面资金外流，就像昨天一样，那么他们可能会突然成为美国生物科技股的被迫卖家，而他们是鲸鱼。尽管该集团是多元化的，但这可能会波及整个美国生物技术领域。</blockquote> Stocks held by Ark Invest funds with combined ownership above 10% of outstanding shares<blockquote>Ark Invest基金持有的合计持股比例超过流通股10%的股票</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97684f80243d32efc06f3379d51d4fb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"353\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group<blockquote>资料来源：Ark Invest、彭博社和盛宝集团</blockquote> The table below shows the largest positions across all funds. Here Tesla has now jumped to 7% of AUM and the first five positions now account for 21.6% of AUM. The five biggest stocks are Tesla, Teladoc Health, Square, Roku, and Baidu. Square just recently reported disappointing Q4 earnings and announced the purchase of $170mn of Bitcoin increasing the risk and feedback loop further in this risk cluster. In the Ark Innovation ETF itself, Tesla is now 10.2% of assets and together with Roku (6%) and Square (5.4%) these three stocks represent 21.6% of assets. If you look at the 10 largest positions in the Ark Innovation ETF then the red thread is that they all come with very high equity valuations and thus low implied equity risk premiums. They are all also mostly equity financed, except for Tesla, which means that the WACC, cost of capital, predominantly come from the cost of equity. With low implied equity risk premiums, the risk-free rate dominates much more than for a company such as say Microsoft or Apple. This means that the rising interest rates could suddenly cause a huge shift in equity valuations. Not because the future is different but because the cost of capital has changed.<blockquote>下表显示了所有基金的最大头寸。在这里，特斯拉现在已经跃升至资产管理规模的7%，前五个职位现在占资产管理规模的21.6%。最大的五只股票是特斯拉、Teladoc Health、Square、Roku和百度。Square最近刚刚公布了令人失望的第四季度收益，并宣布以1.7亿美元收购比特币，进一步增加了该风险集群的风险和反馈循环。在Ark Innovation ETF本身中，特斯拉目前占资产的10.2%，加上Roku(6%)和Square(5.4%)，这三只股票占资产的21.6%。如果你看看Ark Innovation ETF中最大的10个头寸，那么红线是它们都具有非常高的股票估值，因此隐含的股票风险溢价较低。除特斯拉外，它们也主要是股权融资，这意味着WACC（资本成本）主要来自股权成本。由于隐含股权风险溢价较低，无风险利率比微软或苹果等公司占据主导地位。这意味着利率上升可能会突然导致股票估值发生巨大变化。不是因为未来不同，而是因为资本成本发生了变化。</blockquote> Top positions in terms of Ark Invest AUM across all funds<blockquote>Ark Invest所有基金的资产管理规模排名靠前</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e06fcb66d5a52e629b48c9cab492586\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group<blockquote>资料来源：Ark Invest、彭博社和盛宝集团</blockquote> Correlations on the rise and drawdown outlier<blockquote>上涨和下跌异常值的相关性</blockquote> The best sign of risk going haywire is always fast rising cross-correlations whether it is on asset classes or single stocks. The chart below shows the 10-day moving cross-correlation in the Ark Innovation ETF since early 2020. It has recently moved to around 0.6 and while it is not a new record the direction is up and has been fast coming from only 0.2 from a few weeks ago. The next week will be critical for the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as negative feedback loops can be violent and very unpredictable in their outcome.<blockquote>风险失控的最佳迹象总是快速上升的交叉相关性，无论是资产类别还是单一股票。下图显示了Ark Innovation ETF自2020年初以来的10天移动互相关性。它最近已经移动到0.6左右，虽然这不是一个新的记录，但方向是上升的，并且已经从几周前的0.2快速上升。下周对于特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群来说至关重要，因为负反馈循环可能是暴力的，其结果非常不可预测。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab96aaafda10c2371b1d3a1a14c4a48a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"280\">Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group<blockquote>资料来源：彭博社和盛宝集团</blockquote> Another way of looking at risk is by plotting Ark Innovation ETF drawdowns against that of Nasdaq 100 since December 2015.The ETF has typically experienced a drawdown that is 1.22 times larger than that of Nasdaq 100. As of yesterday, the ratio stands at 2.44 and thus illustrates that something idiosyncratic is taking place at Ark Innovation ETF.<blockquote>看待风险的另一种方法是将Ark Innovation ETF的回撤与2015年12月以来纳斯达克100指数的回撤进行比较。该ETF的跌幅通常是纳斯达克100指数的1.22倍截至昨天，该比率为2.44，因此表明Ark Innovation ETF正在发生一些特殊的事情。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80db26e42e2910071718ff22a1ff3f2b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\">If outflows continue today and Tesla comes under pressure again then this indicator could very well hit a new record in terms of being an outlier signaling a negative feedback loop on risk has started.<blockquote>如果今天资金外流继续，特斯拉再次面临压力，那么该指标很可能会创下新纪录，成为一个异常值，表明风险负反馈循环已经开始。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming<blockquote>“为我建造一艘方舟”：特斯拉-比特币-凯西·伍德的风险海啸即将到来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming<blockquote>“为我建造一艘方舟”：特斯拉-比特币-凯西·伍德的风险海啸即将到来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-03-01 20:02\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary:<blockquote>摘要：</blockquote> In today's equity update we are following up on our analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk clustershowing an updated positions analysis, cross-correlations in the flagship Ark Innovation ETF, and an drawdown analysis. Yesterday, was another bad session for this risk cluster and Ark Invest had a day with outflows across all their ETFs highlighting that risk sentiment has changed. With the founder's bold move to increase the position in Tesla during the week the risk has gone up that this risk cluster could turn into an ugly forced selling dynamic causing pain in not only Tesla, Bitcoin, and Ark funds, but also US biotechnology stocks where Ark Invest is a major holder with high ownership in selected names. A little over a month ago we first flagged the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as something to take note off as short-term correlation between Tesla and Bitcoin was shooting up. A survey from Charles Schwab also confirmed our suspicion that there is a big overlap as these two instruments are among the top five holdings by millennials. Our analysis quickly led us to Ark Invest with its famous Ark Innovation ETF which had a big position in Tesla and its charismatic founder Cathie Wood is a big believer in the so-called disruptive innovation culture of Silicon Valley. This class of people believe firmly in technology as mainly good for society in all its aspects and that&nbsp;Bitcoin is a protection against future wealth confiscation&nbsp;which is most likely inevitable due to historically high wealth inequality.<blockquote>在今天的股票更新中，我们将跟进我们的特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群分析显示了最新的头寸分析、旗舰Ark Innovation ETF的互相关性以及回撤分析。昨天是该风险集群的又一个糟糕交易日，Ark Invest的所有ETF都出现资金外流，突显出风险情绪已经发生变化。随着创始人本周大胆增持特斯拉头寸，这一风险集群可能演变成丑陋的强制抛售动态的风险已经上升，不仅会给特斯拉、比特币和Ark基金带来痛苦，也会给美国生物科技股带来痛苦。Ark Invest是主要持有人，在选定的名称中拥有大量所有权。一个多月前，随着特斯拉和比特币之间的短期相关性不断上升，我们首次将特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群标记为值得注意的问题。嘉信理财的一项调查也证实了我们的怀疑，即存在很大重叠，因为这两种工具是千禧一代持有的前五大工具之一。我们的分析很快让我们找到了Ark Invest及其著名的Ark Innovation ETF，该ETF在特斯拉拥有大量头寸，其魅力四射的创始人Cathie Wood是硅谷所谓颠覆性创新文化的忠实信徒。这一类人坚信技术在各个方面对社会都有好处，比特币是防止未来财富被没收的一种保护，由于历史上高度的财富不平等，这很可能是不可避免的。</blockquote> This disruptive innovation culture is powerful. It is presented by some of the wealthiest people of this planet. Endless presentation about innovation and institutions like the Singularity University promote these views. Behind Bitcoin you find a huge online marketing machine sucking ordinary people into the game. Recently wealthy people such as Elon Musk has openly supported Bitcoin, first in writing and later in action adding $1.5bn to Tesla’s balance sheet and thereby significantly increasing its earnings volatility. The triangle of Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark and their respective momentum has reinforced each other creating a positive feedback loop luring more investors into these instruments. As we have seen this week the ‘tower of risk’ is beginning to show cracks.<blockquote>这种颠覆性的创新文化是强大的。它是由这个星球上一些最富有的人提出的。关于创新和奇点大学等机构的无休止的介绍促进了这些观点。在比特币背后，你会发现一个巨大的在线营销机器，将普通人吸进游戏中。最近，Elon Musk等富人公开支持比特币，先是以书面形式，后来又采取行动，为特斯拉的资产负债表增加了15亿美元，从而显着增加了其盈利波动性。特斯拉-比特币-方舟三角及其各自的势头相互加强，创造了一个正反馈循环，吸引更多投资者进入这些工具。正如我们本周所看到的，“风险之塔”开始出现裂缝。</blockquote> Ark position update and Cathie Wood’s bold move and the risk to biotechnology<blockquote>Ark立场更新和Cathie Wood的大胆举措以及生物技术面临的风险</blockquote> This week Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark all came under pressure from negative voices in governments over Bitcoin and beginning noise over real competition for Tesla in the coming years. The risk cluster was clearly moving together, and correlations started rising. On Tuesday, volatility picked up across the board and at one point Cathie Wood felt it was necessary to go public supporting her funds and said that&nbsp;she had increased their position in Tesla&nbsp;using big numbers in the future to justify increasing the risk. This is a bold move, but it increases the risk considerably. When you are at risk of seeing sizeable outflows, you should start reducing the most illiquid positions first while you can control the situation. Because if you are forced to do it by redemptions the game changes dramatically.<blockquote>本周，特斯拉-比特币-方舟都面临着来自政府对比特币的负面声音的压力，以及未来几年特斯拉真正竞争的噪音。风险集群显然在一起移动，相关性开始上升。周二，波动性全面加剧，凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)一度认为有必要上市支持她的基金，并表示她已经增加了在特斯拉的头寸，并在未来利用大量数据来证明增加风险的合理性。这是一个大胆的举动，但它大大增加了风险。当你面临大量资金外流的风险时，你应该在你能控制局面的时候，首先开始减少流动性最差的头寸。因为如果你被迫这样做，游戏就会发生巨大的变化。</blockquote> The tables below show updated Ark Invest positions as of yesterday’s close. There are still 26 stocks where Ark Invest holds more than 10% of the outstanding shares. This could become a serious problem if Ark Invest is suddenly caught in a negative feedback loop together with Tesla and Bitcoin. But also note how US biotechnology stocks are overrepresented in this list of stocks with high ownership in percentage of outstanding shares. If Ark Invest suddenly experience across the board outflows, like it did yesterday, then they can suddenly be the forced seller in US biotechnology stocks where they are the whale. This could cascade into the overall US biotechnology segment although the group is diverse.<blockquote>下表显示了截至昨天收盘时更新的Ark Invest头寸。Ark Invest持有流通股比例超过10%的个股仍有26只。如果Ark Invest突然与特斯拉和比特币一起陷入负反馈循环，这可能会成为一个严重的问题。但也请注意，美国生物技术股票在这份占流通股比例较高的股票列表中所占比例过高。如果Ark Invest突然经历全面资金外流，就像昨天一样，那么他们可能会突然成为美国生物科技股的被迫卖家，而他们是鲸鱼。尽管该集团是多元化的，但这可能会波及整个美国生物技术领域。</blockquote> Stocks held by Ark Invest funds with combined ownership above 10% of outstanding shares<blockquote>Ark Invest基金持有的合计持股比例超过流通股10%的股票</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97684f80243d32efc06f3379d51d4fb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"353\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group<blockquote>资料来源：Ark Invest、彭博社和盛宝集团</blockquote> The table below shows the largest positions across all funds. Here Tesla has now jumped to 7% of AUM and the first five positions now account for 21.6% of AUM. The five biggest stocks are Tesla, Teladoc Health, Square, Roku, and Baidu. Square just recently reported disappointing Q4 earnings and announced the purchase of $170mn of Bitcoin increasing the risk and feedback loop further in this risk cluster. In the Ark Innovation ETF itself, Tesla is now 10.2% of assets and together with Roku (6%) and Square (5.4%) these three stocks represent 21.6% of assets. If you look at the 10 largest positions in the Ark Innovation ETF then the red thread is that they all come with very high equity valuations and thus low implied equity risk premiums. They are all also mostly equity financed, except for Tesla, which means that the WACC, cost of capital, predominantly come from the cost of equity. With low implied equity risk premiums, the risk-free rate dominates much more than for a company such as say Microsoft or Apple. This means that the rising interest rates could suddenly cause a huge shift in equity valuations. Not because the future is different but because the cost of capital has changed.<blockquote>下表显示了所有基金的最大头寸。在这里，特斯拉现在已经跃升至资产管理规模的7%，前五个职位现在占资产管理规模的21.6%。最大的五只股票是特斯拉、Teladoc Health、Square、Roku和百度。Square最近刚刚公布了令人失望的第四季度收益，并宣布以1.7亿美元收购比特币，进一步增加了该风险集群的风险和反馈循环。在Ark Innovation ETF本身中，特斯拉目前占资产的10.2%，加上Roku(6%)和Square(5.4%)，这三只股票占资产的21.6%。如果你看看Ark Innovation ETF中最大的10个头寸，那么红线是它们都具有非常高的股票估值，因此隐含的股票风险溢价较低。除特斯拉外，它们也主要是股权融资，这意味着WACC（资本成本）主要来自股权成本。由于隐含股权风险溢价较低，无风险利率比微软或苹果等公司占据主导地位。这意味着利率上升可能会突然导致股票估值发生巨大变化。不是因为未来不同，而是因为资本成本发生了变化。</blockquote> Top positions in terms of Ark Invest AUM across all funds<blockquote>Ark Invest所有基金的资产管理规模排名靠前</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e06fcb66d5a52e629b48c9cab492586\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group<blockquote>资料来源：Ark Invest、彭博社和盛宝集团</blockquote> Correlations on the rise and drawdown outlier<blockquote>上涨和下跌异常值的相关性</blockquote> The best sign of risk going haywire is always fast rising cross-correlations whether it is on asset classes or single stocks. The chart below shows the 10-day moving cross-correlation in the Ark Innovation ETF since early 2020. It has recently moved to around 0.6 and while it is not a new record the direction is up and has been fast coming from only 0.2 from a few weeks ago. The next week will be critical for the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as negative feedback loops can be violent and very unpredictable in their outcome.<blockquote>风险失控的最佳迹象总是快速上升的交叉相关性，无论是资产类别还是单一股票。下图显示了Ark Innovation ETF自2020年初以来的10天移动互相关性。它最近已经移动到0.6左右，虽然这不是一个新的记录，但方向是上升的，并且已经从几周前的0.2快速上升。下周对于特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群来说至关重要，因为负反馈循环可能是暴力的，其结果非常不可预测。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab96aaafda10c2371b1d3a1a14c4a48a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"280\">Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group<blockquote>资料来源：彭博社和盛宝集团</blockquote> Another way of looking at risk is by plotting Ark Innovation ETF drawdowns against that of Nasdaq 100 since December 2015.The ETF has typically experienced a drawdown that is 1.22 times larger than that of Nasdaq 100. As of yesterday, the ratio stands at 2.44 and thus illustrates that something idiosyncratic is taking place at Ark Innovation ETF.<blockquote>看待风险的另一种方法是将Ark Innovation ETF的回撤与2015年12月以来纳斯达克100指数的回撤进行比较。该ETF的跌幅通常是纳斯达克100指数的1.22倍截至昨天，该比率为2.44，因此表明Ark Innovation ETF正在发生一些特殊的事情。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80db26e42e2910071718ff22a1ff3f2b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\">If outflows continue today and Tesla comes under pressure again then this indicator could very well hit a new record in terms of being an outlier signaling a negative feedback loop on risk has started.<blockquote>如果今天资金外流继续，特斯拉再次面临压力，那么该指标很可能会创下新纪录，成为一个异常值，表明风险负反馈循环已经开始。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/build-me-ark-tsunami-risk-tesla-bitcoin-cathie-wood-coming\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","ARKW":"ARK Next Generation Internet ETF","ARKR":"Ark Restaurants Corp","TSLA":"特斯拉","ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","ARKQ":"ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF","ARKG":"ARK Genomic Revolution ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/build-me-ark-tsunami-risk-tesla-bitcoin-cathie-wood-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105841550","content_text":"Summary:\n\n In today's equity update we are following up on our\n analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk clustershowing an updated positions analysis, cross-correlations in the flagship Ark Innovation ETF, and an drawdown analysis. Yesterday, was another bad session for this risk cluster and Ark Invest had a day with outflows across all their ETFs highlighting that risk sentiment has changed. With the founder's bold move to increase the position in Tesla during the week the risk has gone up that this risk cluster could turn into an ugly forced selling dynamic causing pain in not only Tesla, Bitcoin, and Ark funds, but also US biotechnology stocks where Ark Invest is a major holder with high ownership in selected names.\n\nA little over a month ago we first flagged the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as something to take note off as short-term correlation between Tesla and Bitcoin was shooting up. A survey from Charles Schwab also confirmed our suspicion that there is a big overlap as these two instruments are among the top five holdings by millennials. Our analysis quickly led us to Ark Invest with its famous Ark Innovation ETF which had a big position in Tesla and its charismatic founder Cathie Wood is a big believer in the so-called disruptive innovation culture of Silicon Valley. This class of people believe firmly in technology as mainly good for society in all its aspects and that Bitcoin is a protection against future wealth confiscation which is most likely inevitable due to historically high wealth inequality.\nThis disruptive innovation culture is powerful. It is presented by some of the wealthiest people of this planet. Endless presentation about innovation and institutions like the Singularity University promote these views. Behind Bitcoin you find a huge online marketing machine sucking ordinary people into the game. Recently wealthy people such as Elon Musk has openly supported Bitcoin, first in writing and later in action adding $1.5bn to Tesla’s balance sheet and thereby significantly increasing its earnings volatility. The triangle of Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark and their respective momentum has reinforced each other creating a positive feedback loop luring more investors into these instruments. As we have seen this week the ‘tower of risk’ is beginning to show cracks.\nArk position update and Cathie Wood’s bold move and the risk to biotechnology\nThis week Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark all came under pressure from negative voices in governments over Bitcoin and beginning noise over real competition for Tesla in the coming years. The risk cluster was clearly moving together, and correlations started rising. On Tuesday, volatility picked up across the board and at one point Cathie Wood felt it was necessary to go public supporting her funds and said that she had increased their position in Tesla using big numbers in the future to justify increasing the risk. This is a bold move, but it increases the risk considerably. When you are at risk of seeing sizeable outflows, you should start reducing the most illiquid positions first while you can control the situation. Because if you are forced to do it by redemptions the game changes dramatically.\nThe tables below show updated Ark Invest positions as of yesterday’s close. There are still 26 stocks where Ark Invest holds more than 10% of the outstanding shares. This could become a serious problem if Ark Invest is suddenly caught in a negative feedback loop together with Tesla and Bitcoin. But also note how US biotechnology stocks are overrepresented in this list of stocks with high ownership in percentage of outstanding shares. If Ark Invest suddenly experience across the board outflows, like it did yesterday, then they can suddenly be the forced seller in US biotechnology stocks where they are the whale. This could cascade into the overall US biotechnology segment although the group is diverse.\nStocks held by Ark Invest funds with combined ownership above 10% of outstanding shares\nSource: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group\nThe table below shows the largest positions across all funds. Here Tesla has now jumped to 7% of AUM and the first five positions now account for 21.6% of AUM. The five biggest stocks are Tesla, Teladoc Health, Square, Roku, and Baidu. Square just recently reported disappointing Q4 earnings and announced the purchase of $170mn of Bitcoin increasing the risk and feedback loop further in this risk cluster. In the Ark Innovation ETF itself, Tesla is now 10.2% of assets and together with Roku (6%) and Square (5.4%) these three stocks represent 21.6% of assets. If you look at the 10 largest positions in the Ark Innovation ETF then the red thread is that they all come with very high equity valuations and thus low implied equity risk premiums. They are all also mostly equity financed, except for Tesla, which means that the WACC, cost of capital, predominantly come from the cost of equity. With low implied equity risk premiums, the risk-free rate dominates much more than for a company such as say Microsoft or Apple. This means that the rising interest rates could suddenly cause a huge shift in equity valuations. Not because the future is different but because the cost of capital has changed.\nTop positions in terms of Ark Invest AUM across all funds\nSource: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group\nCorrelations on the rise and drawdown outlier\nThe best sign of risk going haywire is always fast rising cross-correlations whether it is on asset classes or single stocks. The chart below shows the 10-day moving cross-correlation in the Ark Innovation ETF since early 2020. It has recently moved to around 0.6 and while it is not a new record the direction is up and has been fast coming from only 0.2 from a few weeks ago. The next week will be critical for the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as negative feedback loops can be violent and very unpredictable in their outcome.\nSource: Bloomberg and Saxo Group\nAnother way of looking at risk is by plotting Ark Innovation ETF drawdowns against that of Nasdaq 100 since December 2015.The ETF has typically experienced a drawdown that is 1.22 times larger than that of Nasdaq 100. As of yesterday, the ratio stands at 2.44 and thus illustrates that something idiosyncratic is taking place at Ark Innovation ETF.\nIf outflows continue today and Tesla comes under pressure again then this indicator could very well hit a new record in terms of being an outlier signaling a negative feedback loop on risk has started.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARKF":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"ARKG":0.9,"ARKK":0.9,"ARKW":0.9,"ARKR":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"ARKQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1057,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}