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2021-04-16

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Crypto for the long term: what’s the outlook?<blockquote>长期加密货币：前景如何？</blockquote>

It hasn’t proven itself as an actual currency yet, but it’s still in what one expert calls the ‘inno

Crypto for the long term: what’s the outlook?<blockquote>长期加密货币：前景如何？</blockquote>

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A pair of financial-markets experts weighed in on that question at the&nbsp;MarketWatch-Barron’s event&nbsp;Investing In Crypto, held Wednesday.<blockquote>随着经纪商Coinbase本周在纳斯达克首次交易，加密货币向成年迈出了一大步，可能是时候考虑它们的长期前景了。两位金融市场专家在周三举行的MarketWatch-Barron's投资加密货币活动上就这个问题发表了看法。</blockquote> Katie Stockton, a market technician and founder of Fairlead Strategies, noted that technical analysis shows a trend that’s “clearly higher” for the price of Bitcoin.In hindsight, we can see that the lows in 2018 and 2020 served as a massive double bottom, she noted.<blockquote>市场技术员兼Fairlead Strategies创始人Katie Stockton指出，技术分析显示比特币价格“明显走高”的趋势。她指出，事后看来，我们可以看到2018年和2020年的低点是一个巨大的双底。</blockquote> After taking out its 2017 high, Bitcoin jumped above $34,000, and “hasn’t looked back since then,” Stockton said. New all-time highs are a good thing in the long term, she said, and the minor breakout is a good thing, short-term, suggesting a measured move up to just over $69,000. However, the loss of upside momentum means the uptrend should become more gradual.<blockquote>Stockton表示，在突破2017年高点后，比特币股价跃升至34,000美元以上，“从那时起就没有回头”。她表示，从长期来看，历史新高是一件好事，而短期来看，小幅突破也是一件好事，表明价格将小幅上涨至略高于69,000美元。然而，上行动力的丧失意味着上升趋势应该变得更加渐进。</blockquote> Bryan Routledge, a professor of finance at the Tepper School of Business of Carnegie Mellon University, noted that cryptocurrencies have several use cases. Most importantly, they represent an investment in a new technology, and one that has important implications for the economy in the future.<blockquote>卡内基梅隆大学泰珀商学院金融学教授布莱恩·劳特利奇指出，加密货币有几个用例。最重要的是，它们代表了对新技术的投资，并且对未来的经济具有重要影响。</blockquote> That’s happened before — think of the dot-com bubble of two decades ago, Routledge said. But now, investing in the new technology has generally not involved investing in a new company but buying a new asset.<blockquote>劳特利奇说，这种情况以前发生过——想想二十年前的互联网泡沫。但现在，投资新技术通常不涉及投资一家新公司，而是购买一项新资产。</blockquote> In the analogy to the dot-com era, there are lots of failed companies, he noted. As of now, one of the use cases often discussed for cryptos — as literal currencies — hasn’t really come to pass yet.<blockquote>他指出，与互联网时代相比，有很多失败的公司。截至目前，经常讨论的加密货币用例之一——作为字面上的货币——还没有真正实现。</blockquote> Bitcoin is often compared to gold for fundamental reasons, but there are some technical ones as well, the moderator commented.<blockquote>主持人评论说，出于基本面原因，比特币经常被比作黄金，但也有一些技术原因。</blockquote> Since last August, when gold peaked and Bitcoin broke out, gold has been down six out of seven months, while Bitcoin has been higher in six out of seven months, Stockton said. She theorizes that Bitcoin might be viewed as a store of value now, while gold hasn’t been helped by a stronger risk-on attitude in the markets.<blockquote>Stockton表示，自去年8月黄金见顶和比特币爆发以来，黄金在七个月中有六个月下跌，而比特币在七个月中有六个月上涨。她的理论是，比特币现在可能被视为一种价值储存手段，而黄金并没有受到市场更强的风险态度的帮助。</blockquote> The steep uptrend suggests Bitcoin is more of a risk asset, for now, but it seems to be stealing buyers from gold, Stockton noted. From the perspective of the hedge fund community, it’s a “welcome” alternative asset class, she said.<blockquote>Stockton指出，陡峭的上升趋势表明比特币目前更多的是一种风险资产，但它似乎正在抢走黄金买家。她说，从对冲基金界的角度来看，这是一个“受欢迎的”另类资产类别。</blockquote> With that in mind, it’s still early days for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies more broadly, Stockton said. “I think we’re probably still in the ‘innovator’ stage, which represents &nbsp;opportunity, but it does often come with volatility.”<blockquote>Stockton表示，考虑到这一点，比特币和更广泛的加密货币仍处于早期阶段。“我认为我们可能仍处于‘创新者’阶段，这代表着机遇，但它确实经常伴随着波动。”</blockquote> It’s hard to forecast when the volatility will die down, she said, but “it will probably take a long time for this new asset class to play out, for people to understand what it is and find different ways to invest in it and for it to become a medium of exchange. Traders would say it’s something they can take advantage of,” even as long-term investors have to hold their stomachs through the chop.<blockquote>她表示，很难预测波动性何时会消退，但“这种新的资产类别可能需要很长时间才能发挥作用，人们才能了解它是什么，并找到不同的投资方式，并找到投资它的方式。成为一种交换媒介。交易者会说这是他们可以利用的东西”，即使长期投资者不得不忍耐到底。</blockquote> Bitcoin was meant to be decentralized but the financial industry that’s grown up around it makes it more centralized, a moderator observed. It’s “stunningly” centralized, Routledge agreed. People usually aren’t buying bitcoins, they’re buying liabilities often run through Coinbase or other go-betweens, he noted.<blockquote>一位主持人观察到，比特币本应是去中心化的，但围绕它发展起来的金融业使其更加中心化。劳特利奇同意，这是“惊人的”集中化。他指出，人们通常不会购买比特币，他们通常通过Coinbase或其他中间人购买负债。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Crypto for the long term: what’s the outlook?<blockquote>长期加密货币：前景如何？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrypto for the long term: what’s the outlook?<blockquote>长期加密货币：前景如何？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-04-16 15:56\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIt hasn’t proven itself as an actual currency yet, but it’s still in what one expert calls the ‘innovator’ stage<blockquote>它尚未证明自己是一种真正的货币，但仍处于一位专家评级的“创新者”阶段</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752a1b5c6700b38a9a9d7d5702e18949\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"788\">ISTOCKPHOTO<blockquote>ISTOCKPHOTO</blockquote> As cryptocurrencies take a big step into adulthood this week with the trading debut of broker Coinbase on Nasdaq, it may be time to consider their long-term outlook. A pair of financial-markets experts weighed in on that question at the&nbsp;MarketWatch-Barron’s event&nbsp;Investing In Crypto, held Wednesday.<blockquote>随着经纪商Coinbase本周在纳斯达克首次交易，加密货币向成年迈出了一大步，可能是时候考虑它们的长期前景了。两位金融市场专家在周三举行的MarketWatch-Barron's投资加密货币活动上就这个问题发表了看法。</blockquote> Katie Stockton, a market technician and founder of Fairlead Strategies, noted that technical analysis shows a trend that’s “clearly higher” for the price of Bitcoin.In hindsight, we can see that the lows in 2018 and 2020 served as a massive double bottom, she noted.<blockquote>市场技术员兼Fairlead Strategies创始人Katie Stockton指出，技术分析显示比特币价格“明显走高”的趋势。她指出，事后看来，我们可以看到2018年和2020年的低点是一个巨大的双底。</blockquote> After taking out its 2017 high, Bitcoin jumped above $34,000, and “hasn’t looked back since then,” Stockton said. New all-time highs are a good thing in the long term, she said, and the minor breakout is a good thing, short-term, suggesting a measured move up to just over $69,000. However, the loss of upside momentum means the uptrend should become more gradual.<blockquote>Stockton表示，在突破2017年高点后，比特币股价跃升至34,000美元以上，“从那时起就没有回头”。她表示，从长期来看，历史新高是一件好事，而短期来看，小幅突破也是一件好事，表明价格将小幅上涨至略高于69,000美元。然而，上行动力的丧失意味着上升趋势应该变得更加渐进。</blockquote> Bryan Routledge, a professor of finance at the Tepper School of Business of Carnegie Mellon University, noted that cryptocurrencies have several use cases. Most importantly, they represent an investment in a new technology, and one that has important implications for the economy in the future.<blockquote>卡内基梅隆大学泰珀商学院金融学教授布莱恩·劳特利奇指出，加密货币有几个用例。最重要的是，它们代表了对新技术的投资，并且对未来的经济具有重要影响。</blockquote> That’s happened before — think of the dot-com bubble of two decades ago, Routledge said. But now, investing in the new technology has generally not involved investing in a new company but buying a new asset.<blockquote>劳特利奇说，这种情况以前发生过——想想二十年前的互联网泡沫。但现在，投资新技术通常不涉及投资一家新公司，而是购买一项新资产。</blockquote> In the analogy to the dot-com era, there are lots of failed companies, he noted. As of now, one of the use cases often discussed for cryptos — as literal currencies — hasn’t really come to pass yet.<blockquote>他指出，与互联网时代相比，有很多失败的公司。截至目前，经常讨论的加密货币用例之一——作为字面上的货币——还没有真正实现。</blockquote> Bitcoin is often compared to gold for fundamental reasons, but there are some technical ones as well, the moderator commented.<blockquote>主持人评论说，出于基本面原因，比特币经常被比作黄金，但也有一些技术原因。</blockquote> Since last August, when gold peaked and Bitcoin broke out, gold has been down six out of seven months, while Bitcoin has been higher in six out of seven months, Stockton said. She theorizes that Bitcoin might be viewed as a store of value now, while gold hasn’t been helped by a stronger risk-on attitude in the markets.<blockquote>Stockton表示，自去年8月黄金见顶和比特币爆发以来，黄金在七个月中有六个月下跌，而比特币在七个月中有六个月上涨。她的理论是，比特币现在可能被视为一种价值储存手段，而黄金并没有受到市场更强的风险态度的帮助。</blockquote> The steep uptrend suggests Bitcoin is more of a risk asset, for now, but it seems to be stealing buyers from gold, Stockton noted. From the perspective of the hedge fund community, it’s a “welcome” alternative asset class, she said.<blockquote>Stockton指出，陡峭的上升趋势表明比特币目前更多的是一种风险资产，但它似乎正在抢走黄金买家。她说，从对冲基金界的角度来看，这是一个“受欢迎的”另类资产类别。</blockquote> With that in mind, it’s still early days for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies more broadly, Stockton said. “I think we’re probably still in the ‘innovator’ stage, which represents &nbsp;opportunity, but it does often come with volatility.”<blockquote>Stockton表示，考虑到这一点，比特币和更广泛的加密货币仍处于早期阶段。“我认为我们可能仍处于‘创新者’阶段，这代表着机遇，但它确实经常伴随着波动。”</blockquote> It’s hard to forecast when the volatility will die down, she said, but “it will probably take a long time for this new asset class to play out, for people to understand what it is and find different ways to invest in it and for it to become a medium of exchange. Traders would say it’s something they can take advantage of,” even as long-term investors have to hold their stomachs through the chop.<blockquote>她表示，很难预测波动性何时会消退，但“这种新的资产类别可能需要很长时间才能发挥作用，人们才能了解它是什么，并找到不同的投资方式，并找到投资它的方式。成为一种交换媒介。交易者会说这是他们可以利用的东西”，即使长期投资者不得不忍耐到底。</blockquote> Bitcoin was meant to be decentralized but the financial industry that’s grown up around it makes it more centralized, a moderator observed. It’s “stunningly” centralized, Routledge agreed. People usually aren’t buying bitcoins, they’re buying liabilities often run through Coinbase or other go-betweens, he noted.<blockquote>一位主持人观察到，比特币本应是去中心化的，但围绕它发展起来的金融业使其更加中心化。劳特利奇同意，这是“惊人的”集中化。他指出，人们通常不会购买比特币，他们通常通过Coinbase或其他中间人购买负债。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/crypto-for-the-long-term-whats-the-outlook-11618505367?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","PYPL":"PayPal","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/crypto-for-the-long-term-whats-the-outlook-11618505367?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196603230","content_text":"It hasn’t proven itself as an actual currency yet, but it’s still in what one expert calls the ‘innovator’ stage\nISTOCKPHOTO\nAs cryptocurrencies take a big step into adulthood this week with the trading debut of broker Coinbase on Nasdaq, it may be time to consider their long-term outlook. A pair of financial-markets experts weighed in on that question at the MarketWatch-Barron’s event Investing In Crypto, held Wednesday.\nKatie Stockton, a market technician and founder of Fairlead Strategies, noted that technical analysis shows a trend that’s “clearly higher” for the price of Bitcoin.In hindsight, we can see that the lows in 2018 and 2020 served as a massive double bottom, she noted.\nAfter taking out its 2017 high, Bitcoin jumped above $34,000, and “hasn’t looked back since then,” Stockton said. New all-time highs are a good thing in the long term, she said, and the minor breakout is a good thing, short-term, suggesting a measured move up to just over $69,000. However, the loss of upside momentum means the uptrend should become more gradual.\nBryan Routledge, a professor of finance at the Tepper School of Business of Carnegie Mellon University, noted that cryptocurrencies have several use cases. Most importantly, they represent an investment in a new technology, and one that has important implications for the economy in the future.\nThat’s happened before — think of the dot-com bubble of two decades ago, Routledge said. But now, investing in the new technology has generally not involved investing in a new company but buying a new asset.\nIn the analogy to the dot-com era, there are lots of failed companies, he noted. As of now, one of the use cases often discussed for cryptos — as literal currencies — hasn’t really come to pass yet.\nBitcoin is often compared to gold for fundamental reasons, but there are some technical ones as well, the moderator commented.\nSince last August, when gold peaked and Bitcoin broke out, gold has been down six out of seven months, while Bitcoin has been higher in six out of seven months, Stockton said. She theorizes that Bitcoin might be viewed as a store of value now, while gold hasn’t been helped by a stronger risk-on attitude in the markets.\nThe steep uptrend suggests Bitcoin is more of a risk asset, for now, but it seems to be stealing buyers from gold, Stockton noted. From the perspective of the hedge fund community, it’s a “welcome” alternative asset class, she said.\nWith that in mind, it’s still early days for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies more broadly, Stockton said. “I think we’re probably still in the ‘innovator’ stage, which represents  opportunity, but it does often come with volatility.”\nIt’s hard to forecast when the volatility will die down, she said, but “it will probably take a long time for this new asset class to play out, for people to understand what it is and find different ways to invest in it and for it to become a medium of exchange. Traders would say it’s something they can take advantage of,” even as long-term investors have to hold their stomachs through the chop.\nBitcoin was meant to be decentralized but the financial industry that’s grown up around it makes it more centralized, a moderator observed. It’s “stunningly” centralized, Routledge agreed. People usually aren’t buying bitcoins, they’re buying liabilities often run through Coinbase or other go-betweens, he noted.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9,"PYPL":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1863,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Crypto for the long term: what’s the outlook?<blockquote>长期加密货币：前景如何？</blockquote>

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