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Natural gas markets have fallen during most of the week but seem to be finding support at a major round figure, which of course is something that always catches my attention. Ultimately, we are oversold so this could be a clue as to where we are going next.

The natural gas markets gapped lower to kick off the week, and then broke down below the $3.00 level. By doing so, we entered a very bearish phase of the selloff, but by the end of the week we had started to see a bit of resiliency. At this point in time, I think that the market will probably try to rally from here and go looking towards the top of the gap, closer to the $3.30 level. Natural gas had gotten way ahead of itself. However, now it looks as if it had gotten ahead of itself to the downside as well. Overall, I think that a short-term bounce is coming but it should present itself as a nice selling opportunity. The huge moves are over, and therefore it’s likely that it will be difficult to deal with this market from a weekly standpoint. I believe that we are going to go back and forth in a relatively tight range, but I certainly feel much better in the selling side than the buying side.

I believe at this point the $3.50 level is going to be a bit of a “ceiling”, and therefore you should pay attention to it. If we rally towards that area and show signs of exhaustion, that is a clear selling signal. If we show signs of exhaustion at the top of the gap, that’s a nice selling opportunity as well. The alternate scenario is that we break down below the hammer for the week, but that seems very unlikely.

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