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2021-04-26

What Peaking Growth Means for the Stock Market<blockquote>增长见顶对股市意味着什么</blockquote>

On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release data showing how strong the U.S. economy w

What Peaking Growth Means for the Stock Market<blockquote>增长见顶对股市意味着什么</blockquote>

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It’s expected to be good—very good—with real gross domestic product growing at an annualized 5.6% clip. The real number is likely to be even higher, with the&nbsp;Atlanta Fed’s GDP&nbsp;Now tool forecasting an 8.3% rise based on incoming data.</p><p><blockquote>周四，经济分析局将发布数据，显示美国经济第一季度的强劲程度。预计情况会很好——非常好——实际国内生产总值年化增长率为5.6%。实际数字可能会更高，亚特兰大联储的GDP NOW工具根据收到的数据预测增长8.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Such strength brings concerns about peaking growth. Just two weeks ago in this space, we highlighted&nbsp;the surge in the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey, which hit 64.7 in March. It was a great number, but also one that will have a hard time going higher. If the ISM really is peaking, it could set the stock market up for a short, but painful, decline, warns Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha.</p><p><blockquote>这样的实力带来了对增长见顶的担忧。就在两周前，我们在这个领域强调了供应管理协会制造业调查的激增，3月份达到64.7。这是一个很大的数字，但也是一个很难走高的数字。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的米朵琪·查达(Binky Chadha)警告称，如果ISM真的见顶，股市可能会出现短暂但痛苦的下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Now Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider has a similar warning. He notes that the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;typically has returned 0.6% a month when growth was positive but slowing, half the monthly gain of 1.2% when it was positive and accelerating. And buying the market when the ISM is above 60—a level that usually coincides with peak growth—has led to a 1% decline during the month immediately following the peak and a gain of just 3% over the next 12 months. “[Equities] often struggle in the short term when a strong rate of economic growth first begins to slow,” Snider writes.</p><p><blockquote>现在高盛策略师本·斯奈德也发出了类似的警告。他指出，当增长为正但放缓时，标准普尔500指数的月回报率通常为0.6%，是增长为正且加速时1.2%的月回报率的一半。当ISM高于60（这一水平通常与增长峰值同时发生）时买入市场，导致市场在峰值后的一个月内下跌1%，而在接下来的12个月内仅上涨3%。斯奈德写道：“当强劲的经济增长率首先开始放缓时，[股市]往往会在短期内陷入困境。”</blockquote></p><p> Not everyone agrees with that assessment. The market’s big worry, at the moment, is over when the Fed will raise interest rates. So a deceleration in the ISM, particularly in the prices-paid component, could be met with relief because it would mean the Fed wouldn’t have to raise rates to cool an overheating economy, says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth Management. “This environment is somewhat unique,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有人都同意这一评估。目前，市场最大的担忧是美联储何时加息。因此，CIBC私人财富管理首席投资官戴夫·多纳贝迪安(Dave Donabedian)表示，ISM的减速，尤其是价格支付部分的减速，可能会得到缓解，因为这意味着美联储不必加息来冷却过热的经济。。“这种环境有些独特，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Still, if the U.S. is starting to decelerate, Europe, Japan, and emerging markets are likely to accelerate, particularly as they start to get Covid-19 under control. That means investors should consider buying economically sensitive stocks with international exposure. Goldman’s picks include gold miner Newmont&nbsp;(ticker: NEM), auto-parts maker BorgWarner&nbsp;(BWA), lithium provider Albemarle&nbsp;(ALB), and a basket of European stocks, including Ryanair Holdings&nbsp;(RYA.Ireland), Restaurant Group&nbsp;(RTN.UK), and H&amp;M Hennes &amp; Mauritz&nbsp;(HM.B.Sweden).</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，如果美国开始减速，欧洲、日本和新兴市场可能会加速，特别是当它们开始控制Covid-19时。这意味着投资者应该考虑购买具有国际敞口的经济敏感股票。高盛的选择包括金矿商纽蒙特公司（股票代码：NEM）、汽车零部件制造商博格华纳（BWA）、锂供应商雅宝（ALB）以及一篮子欧洲股票，包括瑞安航空控股公司（RYA.Ireland）、Restaurant Group（RTN.UK））和H&amp;M Hennes&amp;Mauritz（HM.B.Sweden）。</blockquote></p><p> &nbsp;A little diversification never hurts.</p><p><blockquote>一点多元化不会有什么坏处。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Peaking Growth Means for the Stock Market<blockquote>增长见顶对股市意味着什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Peaking Growth Means for the Stock Market<blockquote>增长见顶对股市意味着什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-26 12:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release data showing how strong the U.S. economy was during the first quarter. It’s expected to be good—very good—with real gross domestic product growing at an annualized 5.6% clip. The real number is likely to be even higher, with the&nbsp;Atlanta Fed’s GDP&nbsp;Now tool forecasting an 8.3% rise based on incoming data.</p><p><blockquote>周四，经济分析局将发布数据，显示美国经济第一季度的强劲程度。预计情况会很好——非常好——实际国内生产总值年化增长率为5.6%。实际数字可能会更高，亚特兰大联储的GDP NOW工具根据收到的数据预测增长8.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Such strength brings concerns about peaking growth. Just two weeks ago in this space, we highlighted&nbsp;the surge in the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey, which hit 64.7 in March. It was a great number, but also one that will have a hard time going higher. If the ISM really is peaking, it could set the stock market up for a short, but painful, decline, warns Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha.</p><p><blockquote>这样的实力带来了对增长见顶的担忧。就在两周前，我们在这个领域强调了供应管理协会制造业调查的激增，3月份达到64.7。这是一个很大的数字，但也是一个很难走高的数字。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的米朵琪·查达(Binky Chadha)警告称，如果ISM真的见顶，股市可能会出现短暂但痛苦的下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Now Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider has a similar warning. He notes that the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;typically has returned 0.6% a month when growth was positive but slowing, half the monthly gain of 1.2% when it was positive and accelerating. And buying the market when the ISM is above 60—a level that usually coincides with peak growth—has led to a 1% decline during the month immediately following the peak and a gain of just 3% over the next 12 months. “[Equities] often struggle in the short term when a strong rate of economic growth first begins to slow,” Snider writes.</p><p><blockquote>现在高盛策略师本·斯奈德也发出了类似的警告。他指出，当增长为正但放缓时，标准普尔500指数的月回报率通常为0.6%，是增长为正且加速时1.2%的月回报率的一半。当ISM高于60（这一水平通常与增长峰值同时发生）时买入市场，导致市场在峰值后的一个月内下跌1%，而在接下来的12个月内仅上涨3%。斯奈德写道：“当强劲的经济增长率首先开始放缓时，[股市]往往会在短期内陷入困境。”</blockquote></p><p> Not everyone agrees with that assessment. The market’s big worry, at the moment, is over when the Fed will raise interest rates. So a deceleration in the ISM, particularly in the prices-paid component, could be met with relief because it would mean the Fed wouldn’t have to raise rates to cool an overheating economy, says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth Management. “This environment is somewhat unique,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有人都同意这一评估。目前，市场最大的担忧是美联储何时加息。因此，CIBC私人财富管理首席投资官戴夫·多纳贝迪安(Dave Donabedian)表示，ISM的减速，尤其是价格支付部分的减速，可能会得到缓解，因为这意味着美联储不必加息来冷却过热的经济。。“这种环境有些独特，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Still, if the U.S. is starting to decelerate, Europe, Japan, and emerging markets are likely to accelerate, particularly as they start to get Covid-19 under control. That means investors should consider buying economically sensitive stocks with international exposure. Goldman’s picks include gold miner Newmont&nbsp;(ticker: NEM), auto-parts maker BorgWarner&nbsp;(BWA), lithium provider Albemarle&nbsp;(ALB), and a basket of European stocks, including Ryanair Holdings&nbsp;(RYA.Ireland), Restaurant Group&nbsp;(RTN.UK), and H&amp;M Hennes &amp; Mauritz&nbsp;(HM.B.Sweden).</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，如果美国开始减速，欧洲、日本和新兴市场可能会加速，特别是当它们开始控制Covid-19时。这意味着投资者应该考虑购买具有国际敞口的经济敏感股票。高盛的选择包括金矿商纽蒙特公司（股票代码：NEM）、汽车零部件制造商博格华纳（BWA）、锂供应商雅宝（ALB）以及一篮子欧洲股票，包括瑞安航空控股公司（RYA.Ireland）、Restaurant Group（RTN.UK））和H&amp;M Hennes&amp;Mauritz（HM.B.Sweden）。</blockquote></p><p> &nbsp;A little diversification never hurts.</p><p><blockquote>一点多元化不会有什么坏处。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-peaking-growth-means-for-the-stock-market-51619221496?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","NEM":"纽曼矿业","BWA":"博格华纳","ALB":"美国雅保"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-peaking-growth-means-for-the-stock-market-51619221496?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152535643","content_text":"On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release data showing how strong the U.S. economy was during the first quarter. It’s expected to be good—very good—with real gross domestic product growing at an annualized 5.6% clip. The real number is likely to be even higher, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now tool forecasting an 8.3% rise based on incoming data.\nSuch strength brings concerns about peaking growth. Just two weeks ago in this space, we highlighted the surge in the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey, which hit 64.7 in March. It was a great number, but also one that will have a hard time going higher. If the ISM really is peaking, it could set the stock market up for a short, but painful, decline, warns Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha.\nNow Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider has a similar warning. He notes that the S&P 500 typically has returned 0.6% a month when growth was positive but slowing, half the monthly gain of 1.2% when it was positive and accelerating. And buying the market when the ISM is above 60—a level that usually coincides with peak growth—has led to a 1% decline during the month immediately following the peak and a gain of just 3% over the next 12 months. “[Equities] often struggle in the short term when a strong rate of economic growth first begins to slow,” Snider writes.\nNot everyone agrees with that assessment. The market’s big worry, at the moment, is over when the Fed will raise interest rates. So a deceleration in the ISM, particularly in the prices-paid component, could be met with relief because it would mean the Fed wouldn’t have to raise rates to cool an overheating economy, says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth Management. “This environment is somewhat unique,” he says.\nStill, if the U.S. is starting to decelerate, Europe, Japan, and emerging markets are likely to accelerate, particularly as they start to get Covid-19 under control. That means investors should consider buying economically sensitive stocks with international exposure. Goldman’s picks include gold miner Newmont (ticker: NEM), auto-parts maker BorgWarner (BWA), lithium provider Albemarle (ALB), and a basket of European stocks, including Ryanair Holdings (RYA.Ireland), Restaurant Group (RTN.UK), and H&M Hennes & Mauritz (HM.B.Sweden).\n A little diversification never hurts.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"NEM":0.9,"RYA.UK":0.9,"RTN.UK":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ALB":0.9,"BWA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2310,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}