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Context: The Setup

SPX is sitting around 6010-15, with e-minis down ~23. I think yesterday was quite eventful:

LOD: 6007 – 6000 held strong, proving to be a critical support level.

HOD: 6049.75 – just shy of the 6050 round number, where resistance remains clear.

A whale exited their 6000/6050 call spread (expiring today), triggering early weakness. Later, favorable moves in the 10YT yield gave the market a boost into the close.

$SPX 0DTE Road Map

Chop Zone: 6000-6050. Straightforward range, so don’t overthink it. Expected move ±25 points, with 6015 as the key reference level.

Scenario 1: Inside the Chop Zone (6000-6050)

At 6015: The pivotal level.

If Over 6015/20:

First target: 6030, the next reaction zone. Watch for acceptance or rejection.

Above 6030: Next level is 6040, yesterday’s close.

Over 6040: Pushes toward 6050/55, but expect significant resistance as it’s a key end-of-year level.

If Below 6015:

First target: 6010, around yesterday’s LOD.

Approaching 6000: This becomes the battleground for buyers and sellers. Undercut/reclaim scenarios are likely here.

Scenario 2: Below 6000

At 5990/95: A critical level. Either a reversal back above 6000 or further downside becomes likely.

If 5990 Fails:

Potential slide to 5970/75, where demand may re-emerge.

Below that, 5960 becomes the next stall point, with 5950 as a key round-number target.

Scenario 3: Above 6050

At 6055: Expect sticky, mean-reverting price action.

Above 6055: Potential grind to 6060/65.

If Over 6065: A push to 6075 could materialize, but the probability of reaching 6100 today is slim.

Key Considerations

Gamma Effect: As we approach year-end, round numbers like 6000 and 6050 act as magnets, attracting significant price action.

$VIX Levels:

Below 14.5: Bullish momentum.

Around 15: Neutral ground.

Above 15.5: Increased volatility favors downside.

TL;DR (Focus for today)

Today’s focus is on the chop zone (6000-6050). Breaks above could target 6040 and possibly 6055. Drops below 6000 could test 5990, with further downside to 5970 if sellers take control. Stay disciplined, stick to your levels, and trade with clarity.

What’s your plan for today? Let’s compare notes! Trade safe, y'all! [Cool]