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2021-02-08

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Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote>

This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers

Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote>

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One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.<blockquote>2月4日：总而言之，GameStop（股票代码：GME）事件最持久的影响之一将是让许多市场参与者了解清算机构存款信托公司所扮演的关键角色和最终权力。这件事更奇怪的一面是，有人试图将其描绘成某种形式的道德讨伐，或者是“小人物”报复华尔街的机会。事实是，一些大投资者损失了大量资金，而另一些投资者则获得了丰厚的回报，就像一些小投资者将获得改变生活的资金，而另一些投资者将损失可能同样具有影响力的资金一样。从这个意义上说，市场是一个精英统治，这并不等同于说它在提供结果方面总是公平的。</blockquote> What is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&amp;P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&amp;P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.<blockquote>同样清楚的是，1月下旬，杠杆对冲基金投资者的资金大幅减少，但并未导致股市大幅调整。标普500基本上尊重50日均线的支撑，不需要跌至我们设定的“最坏情况”目标3600点。纳斯达克100指数、Russell 2000指数和MSCI新兴市场指数不需要触及相应的趋势支撑，这三个指数在1月份都成功产生了正回报，不像标普500出现了小幅亏损。随后的反弹迅速而广泛，正如技术性和短暂性催化剂所预期的那样。</blockquote> That it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.<blockquote>这不是一件完全积极或无关紧要的事情。漫长的牛市现在有发展成历史性狂热的迹象。这并不意味着市场峰值即将到来，但规范过程——什么是“适当的”最终会受到极端情况的影响——意味着普通投资者承担的风险水平可能明显高于Covid之前。</blockquote> —Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett<blockquote>——迈克尔·绍尔、蒂莫西·布莱凯特</blockquote> Heigh-Ho Silver!<blockquote>嗨-嗬银！</blockquote> The Aden Forecast Weekly Update<blockquote>亚丁天气预报每周更新</blockquote> The Aden Forecast<blockquote>亚丁天气预报</blockquote> adenforecast.com<blockquote>adenforecast.com</blockquote> Feb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.<blockquote>2月4日：周一，在Reddit的购买狂潮中，白银飙升至接近30美元的8月份高点。无论如何，白银都很坚挺，而且一直保持良好，所以无论谁盯住白银，都知道他们在做什么。白银股也大幅上涨，虽然此后有所平静，但波动性似乎仍将持续。自12月以来，白银一直保持在15周移动平均线上方，并将保持在25美元上方。下一个要超越的里程碑是30美元水平，这是本轮牛市的高点。如果明显被打破，另一条腿将会上升。保持你的白银和白银份额头寸。</blockquote> —Mary Anne and Pamela Aden<blockquote>——玛丽·安妮和帕梅拉·亚丁</blockquote> How to Play Oil’s Recent Rally<blockquote>如何玩转石油近期的反弹</blockquote> Daily Insights<blockquote>每日洞察</blockquote> BCA Research<blockquote>BCA研究</blockquote> bcaresearch.com<blockquote>bcaresearch.com</blockquote> Feb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.<blockquote>2月4日：最近的油价上涨将对能源市场以外的资产价格产生影响。虽然油价上涨有利于石油出口国，但也损害了石油进口国的经济，而且往往有滞后性。</blockquote> A great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.<blockquote>这些动态的一个很好的例子是中国。中国经济是石油进口大国；因此，油价上涨是对中国经济增长的一种征税。此外，中国A股大量持有跑赢大盘科技股，这些股没有从能源价格上涨中受益。事实上，在过去四年中，布伦特原油价格上涨确实会导致国内市场在岸价格下跌约三个月。目前的设置让人想起2018年初。当时，在油价开始上涨后，中国A股已经上涨了几个月。最终，中国经济增长放缓和北京谨慎的政策制定导致了中国股市的大幅抛售。如今，中国经济增长再次减速，北京正在进行一些重大监管收紧，而中国人民银行正在抽干流动性。因此，今年春天中国股市可能会出现大幅调整。</blockquote> A lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.<blockquote>利用这些动态的低辛烷值策略是相对于德国股市做多英国股市，同时支持隐性货币敞口。德国股票非常跑输大盘能源，德国的石油消费全部进口。与此同时，英国基准充满了能源股，英国仍然是石油生产国，即使它进口部分石油（布伦特原油价格上涨对英国经济的税收相对较小）。作为一个附带好处，英镑兑欧元非常便宜，而且英国的疫苗接种活动远远领先于欧元区，这可能会导致英吉利海峡以北更早的经济红利，并在此过程中损害欧元/英镑。</blockquote> —Mathieu Savary and Team<blockquote>——Mathieu Savary和团队</blockquote> High-Yield Opportunities<blockquote>高收益机会</blockquote> Carret Credit Insight<blockquote>Carret信用洞察</blockquote> Carret Asset Mangaement<blockquote>Carret资产管理</blockquote> carret.com<blockquote>carret.com</blockquote> Feb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.<blockquote>2月3日：2020年底，iBoxx高收益指数收益率为4.23%，创历史新低。利差也创下历史新高。随着全球投资者寻求收入，低收益率并不令人意外。美联储支持“堕落天使”，允许许多高收益（HY）公司以更低的利率进行再融资，并将即将到期的期限延长一天。强劲的股市预测盈利将反弹，疫苗将很快带来光明的日子。我们继续在高质量HY市场的短期/中期部分发现有吸引力的价值。</blockquote> We want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&amp;P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.<blockquote>我们想与您分享一项关于HY债券市场风险和回报的最新学术研究：George Mason University最近发布了一份关于HY债券基金回报和相对于股票波动性的报告（标普500）。自1990年以来，HY债券基金的平均年化回报率为7.1%，波动率为7.7%。同期，标普500的平均年化回报率为7.8%，但波动性几乎是14.5%的两倍。结论是：HY债券的总回报接近美国股市，而波动性只有美国股市的一半。我们相信，随着股票估值上升和国债收益率暴跌，HY市场将在未来十年提供有竞争力的回报。我们利用破产的可转换债券、优先股和特殊情况收入投资的能力增强了我们的现金流机会。</blockquote> —Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein<blockquote>——杰森·R·格雷比尔、尼尔·D·克莱因</blockquote> Emerging Markets Blast Off<blockquote>新兴市场起飞</blockquote> PCM Report<blockquote>PCM报告</blockquote> Peak Capital Management<blockquote>匹克资本管理</blockquote> pcmstrategies.com<blockquote>pcmstrategies.com</blockquote> Feb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&amp;P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.<blockquote>2月1日：到目前为止，2021年对新兴市场股市来说是好年景。今年迄今为止，iShares MSCI新兴市场交易所交易基金(EEM)上涨了约8%，而SPDR S&amp;P 500ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的涨幅约为3%。自2008年金融危机以来，新兴市场整体表现严重落后于美国股市。</blockquote> What could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.<blockquote>什么可以推动该资产类别在20201年及以后走高？从长远来看，可能的催化剂是人口统计。美国和欧洲等发达市场人口老龄化，这可能意味着与新兴市场经济体相比，未来十年的生产率和国内生产总值增长可能会较低。</blockquote> In its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.<blockquote>摩根大通在其最新的资本市场报告中预计，2021年新兴市场的GDP增长率为3.9%，而发达市场为1.6%。报告显示，中国和印度将推动GDP增长，新兴市场的生产率和人力资本将逐渐向发达市场水平趋同。</blockquote> —Clint Pekrul<blockquote>-克林特·佩克鲁尔</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-02-08 18:51\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThis commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.<blockquote>这篇评论最近由基金经理、研究公司和市场时事通讯作者发表，并由《巴伦周刊》编辑。</blockquote> What GameStop Taught Us<blockquote>游戏驿站教给我们的</blockquote> The Weekly Speculator<blockquote>每周投机者</blockquote> Marketfield Asset Management<blockquote>Marketfield资产管理</blockquote> marketfield.com<blockquote>marketfield.com</blockquote> Feb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.<blockquote>2月4日：总而言之，GameStop（股票代码：GME）事件最持久的影响之一将是让许多市场参与者了解清算机构存款信托公司所扮演的关键角色和最终权力。这件事更奇怪的一面是，有人试图将其描绘成某种形式的道德讨伐，或者是“小人物”报复华尔街的机会。事实是，一些大投资者损失了大量资金，而另一些投资者则获得了丰厚的回报，就像一些小投资者将获得改变生活的资金，而另一些投资者将损失可能同样具有影响力的资金一样。从这个意义上说，市场是一个精英统治，这并不等同于说它在提供结果方面总是公平的。</blockquote> What is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&amp;P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&amp;P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.<blockquote>同样清楚的是，1月下旬，杠杆对冲基金投资者的资金大幅减少，但并未导致股市大幅调整。标普500基本上尊重50日均线的支撑，不需要跌至我们设定的“最坏情况”目标3600点。纳斯达克100指数、Russell 2000指数和MSCI新兴市场指数不需要触及相应的趋势支撑，这三个指数在1月份都成功产生了正回报，不像标普500出现了小幅亏损。随后的反弹迅速而广泛，正如技术性和短暂性催化剂所预期的那样。</blockquote> That it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.<blockquote>这不是一件完全积极或无关紧要的事情。漫长的牛市现在有发展成历史性狂热的迹象。这并不意味着市场峰值即将到来，但规范过程——什么是“适当的”最终会受到极端情况的影响——意味着普通投资者承担的风险水平可能明显高于Covid之前。</blockquote> —Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett<blockquote>——迈克尔·绍尔、蒂莫西·布莱凯特</blockquote> Heigh-Ho Silver!<blockquote>嗨-嗬银！</blockquote> The Aden Forecast Weekly Update<blockquote>亚丁天气预报每周更新</blockquote> The Aden Forecast<blockquote>亚丁天气预报</blockquote> adenforecast.com<blockquote>adenforecast.com</blockquote> Feb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.<blockquote>2月4日：周一，在Reddit的购买狂潮中，白银飙升至接近30美元的8月份高点。无论如何，白银都很坚挺，而且一直保持良好，所以无论谁盯住白银，都知道他们在做什么。白银股也大幅上涨，虽然此后有所平静，但波动性似乎仍将持续。自12月以来，白银一直保持在15周移动平均线上方，并将保持在25美元上方。下一个要超越的里程碑是30美元水平，这是本轮牛市的高点。如果明显被打破，另一条腿将会上升。保持你的白银和白银份额头寸。</blockquote> —Mary Anne and Pamela Aden<blockquote>——玛丽·安妮和帕梅拉·亚丁</blockquote> How to Play Oil’s Recent Rally<blockquote>如何玩转石油近期的反弹</blockquote> Daily Insights<blockquote>每日洞察</blockquote> BCA Research<blockquote>BCA研究</blockquote> bcaresearch.com<blockquote>bcaresearch.com</blockquote> Feb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.<blockquote>2月4日：最近的油价上涨将对能源市场以外的资产价格产生影响。虽然油价上涨有利于石油出口国，但也损害了石油进口国的经济，而且往往有滞后性。</blockquote> A great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.<blockquote>这些动态的一个很好的例子是中国。中国经济是石油进口大国；因此，油价上涨是对中国经济增长的一种征税。此外，中国A股大量持有跑赢大盘科技股，这些股没有从能源价格上涨中受益。事实上，在过去四年中，布伦特原油价格上涨确实会导致国内市场在岸价格下跌约三个月。目前的设置让人想起2018年初。当时，在油价开始上涨后，中国A股已经上涨了几个月。最终，中国经济增长放缓和北京谨慎的政策制定导致了中国股市的大幅抛售。如今，中国经济增长再次减速，北京正在进行一些重大监管收紧，而中国人民银行正在抽干流动性。因此，今年春天中国股市可能会出现大幅调整。</blockquote> A lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.<blockquote>利用这些动态的低辛烷值策略是相对于德国股市做多英国股市，同时支持隐性货币敞口。德国股票非常跑输大盘能源，德国的石油消费全部进口。与此同时，英国基准充满了能源股，英国仍然是石油生产国，即使它进口部分石油（布伦特原油价格上涨对英国经济的税收相对较小）。作为一个附带好处，英镑兑欧元非常便宜，而且英国的疫苗接种活动远远领先于欧元区，这可能会导致英吉利海峡以北更早的经济红利，并在此过程中损害欧元/英镑。</blockquote> —Mathieu Savary and Team<blockquote>——Mathieu Savary和团队</blockquote> High-Yield Opportunities<blockquote>高收益机会</blockquote> Carret Credit Insight<blockquote>Carret信用洞察</blockquote> Carret Asset Mangaement<blockquote>Carret资产管理</blockquote> carret.com<blockquote>carret.com</blockquote> Feb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.<blockquote>2月3日：2020年底，iBoxx高收益指数收益率为4.23%，创历史新低。利差也创下历史新高。随着全球投资者寻求收入，低收益率并不令人意外。美联储支持“堕落天使”，允许许多高收益（HY）公司以更低的利率进行再融资，并将即将到期的期限延长一天。强劲的股市预测盈利将反弹，疫苗将很快带来光明的日子。我们继续在高质量HY市场的短期/中期部分发现有吸引力的价值。</blockquote> We want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&amp;P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.<blockquote>我们想与您分享一项关于HY债券市场风险和回报的最新学术研究：George Mason University最近发布了一份关于HY债券基金回报和相对于股票波动性的报告（标普500）。自1990年以来，HY债券基金的平均年化回报率为7.1%，波动率为7.7%。同期，标普500的平均年化回报率为7.8%，但波动性几乎是14.5%的两倍。结论是：HY债券的总回报接近美国股市，而波动性只有美国股市的一半。我们相信，随着股票估值上升和国债收益率暴跌，HY市场将在未来十年提供有竞争力的回报。我们利用破产的可转换债券、优先股和特殊情况收入投资的能力增强了我们的现金流机会。</blockquote> —Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein<blockquote>——杰森·R·格雷比尔、尼尔·D·克莱因</blockquote> Emerging Markets Blast Off<blockquote>新兴市场起飞</blockquote> PCM Report<blockquote>PCM报告</blockquote> Peak Capital Management<blockquote>匹克资本管理</blockquote> pcmstrategies.com<blockquote>pcmstrategies.com</blockquote> Feb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&amp;P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.<blockquote>2月1日：到目前为止，2021年对新兴市场股市来说是好年景。今年迄今为止，iShares MSCI新兴市场交易所交易基金(EEM)上涨了约8%，而SPDR S&amp;P 500ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的涨幅约为3%。自2008年金融危机以来，新兴市场整体表现严重落后于美国股市。</blockquote> What could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.<blockquote>什么可以推动该资产类别在20201年及以后走高？从长远来看，可能的催化剂是人口统计。美国和欧洲等发达市场人口老龄化，这可能意味着与新兴市场经济体相比，未来十年的生产率和国内生产总值增长可能会较低。</blockquote> In its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.<blockquote>摩根大通在其最新的资本市场报告中预计，2021年新兴市场的GDP增长率为3.9%，而发达市场为1.6%。报告显示，中国和印度将推动GDP增长，新兴市场的生产率和人力资本将逐渐向发达市场水平趋同。</blockquote> —Clint Pekrul<blockquote>-克林特·佩克鲁尔</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195153829","content_text":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.\nWhat GameStop Taught Us\nThe Weekly Speculator\nMarketfield Asset Management\nmarketfield.com\nFeb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.\nWhat is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.\nThat it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.\n—Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett\nHeigh-Ho Silver!\nThe Aden Forecast Weekly Update\nThe Aden Forecast\nadenforecast.com\nFeb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.\n—Mary Anne and Pamela Aden\nHow to Play Oil’s Recent Rally\nDaily Insights\nBCA Research\nbcaresearch.com\nFeb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.\nA great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.\nA lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.\n—Mathieu Savary and Team\nHigh-Yield Opportunities\nCarret Credit Insight\nCarret Asset Mangaement\ncarret.com\nFeb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.\nWe want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.\n—Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein\nEmerging Markets Blast Off\nPCM Report\nPeak Capital Management\npcmstrategies.com\nFeb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.\nWhat could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.\nIn its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.\n—Clint Pekrul","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"GME":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":870,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}