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2025-04-10
他们是不是参照了polymarket
1小时变脸!高盛“变脸王”刷新纪录,紧急撤回衰退警报
这可能是华尔街史上最快打脸现场!特朗普宣布对大部分经济体暂停对等关税,高盛紧急撤回衰退警报,概率狂砍20%!经济学家们连夜撕报告重写。
1小时变脸!高盛“变脸王”刷新纪录,紧急撤回衰退警报
免责声明:上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点,不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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Feroli)在一份报告中说,鉴于这一消息,<strong>美联储可能会等到9月份才开始降息</strong>。此前,他曾预计美联储将从6月开始连续降息。该银行上周还预测,关税的影响将使今年的经济陷入衰退。</p><p>“贸易政策的拖累可能会比以前小一些......不过,我们仍然认为今年晚些时候实际经济活动出现萎缩的可能性更大,”费罗利说。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>1小时变脸!高盛“变脸王”刷新纪录,紧急撤回衰退警报</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=171311&type=news&data_type=0\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b3684302211042d481cacf9066fbcca","relate_stocks":{"LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) 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USD"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=171311&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2526134070","content_text":"当地时间4月9日,高盛发布衰退预期报告,预计美国未来12个月衰退的可能性为65%。但大概一个小时过后(特朗普宣布暂停关税声明后),高盛又迅速作废了这一预期,目前预计美国经济的衰退概率为45%。但分析师们仍然认为政策的不确定性会导致今年美国经济急剧放缓。“今天早些时候,在特朗普总统宣布这一消息之前,我们已经转向衰退基线,以应对今天上午生效的针对特定国家的额外关税,但我们现在恢复到之前的非衰退基线预测。”由Jan Hatzius领导的高盛团队周三在一份说明中表示。这一快速逆转凸显了分析师和投资者在试图估计美国政府贸易政策对经济的影响时所面临的挑战,因为贸易政策有时每小时都在发生变化。他们说:“这一公告保留了之前的所有关税和对等关税中10%的最低税率,我们仍预计将以25%的税率对特定行业征收额外关税。这些关税加在一起,可能会接近我们之前的预期。”不过,根据他们的最新预测,2025年美国经济增长率仅为0.5%,未来12个月出现衰退的几率仍达45%。自4月2日宣布征收关税以来,其他公司的经济学家纷纷下调了经济增长预测,并提高了通胀预期。一些预测者在周三的关税暂停消息出炉后重申了对前景的谨慎看法。文艺复兴宏观公司(Renaissance Macro)美国经济主管尼尔-杜塔(Neil Dutta)周三上午向客户发送电子邮件称,他预计经济将下滑。在特朗普的声明和高盛的逆转之后,杜塔又发了一封邮件,维持他的观点。他说:“现在的情况是,我们从非线性风险变成了更线性风险。这让我们松了一口气,但这并不是任何人都能敲响‘万事大吉钟’的情况。”花旗集团的经济学家周三下午也发出了类似的警告。“暂停(对大部分贸易伙伴的)对等关税并不意味着美国经济避免了增长放缓和通胀上升,”花旗集团的安德鲁-霍伦霍斯特(Andrew 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