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原文发表于美国时间2025-6-4

周三，美国劳动力市场放缓的明显数据令华尔街震荡。美国私营部门的就业增长跌至两年多来的最低水平，引发投资者担忧贸易逆风加剧了就业压力，同时唐纳德·特朗普总统再次向美联储施压，要求降息。

ADP公司周三发布的就业数据报告显示，美国私营企业在5月仅新增了3.7万个就业岗位，低于4月的6.2万个。

这一数据远低于经济学家们预期的11.5万，创下自2023年3月以来的最低水平。

特朗普在数据公布后不久在社交媒体上写道：“ADP数据出来了！！！鲍威尔‘太晚了’，现在必须降息。他太不可思议了！！！欧洲已经降息九次了！”。

ADP公司首席经济学家内拉·理查森表示，“在年初强劲开局之后，招聘势头正在减弱”，“然而，5月份的薪资增长几乎没有变化，无论是留职员工还是换工作的员工，都保持了较高的水平。”

5月份，留职员工的工资按年同比增长了4.5%，与前几个月持平。换工作的员工工资增长了7%，也与4月份的修订后的数据持平。

虽然ADP公司的数据通常与官方政府数据有所不同，但疲软的数据加剧了人们对劳动力市场大范围放缓的预期。美国劳工统计局将于周五公布5月就业形势数据报告，预计非农就业人数将增加13万，低于4月的17万。

市场反应

数据公布几分钟后，美元指数大跌，美元兑欧元跌破1.14。

由于交易员们加大了对美联储即将降息的押注，2年期美国国债收益率跌至3.92%。10年期美国国债的收益率也出现下滑，下跌5基点，降至4.41%。

根据芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具，联邦基金期货目前隐含美联储将在今年年底前降息2次，预计首次降息将在10月份。

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