社区

‌$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$  ‌Roblox’s options are seeing elevated volatility driven by conflicting catalysts—bullish AI/metaverse bets vs. regulatory risks and valuation concerns. Key strikes at $120 (call-heavy) and $100 (put protection) dominate activity.

Key Drivers of Options Movement:

Near-Term Catalysts :

S&P Credit Upgrade (Aug 14) : Upgraded to BBB- with "Positive" outlook, sparking call buying (Aug 16 $125C open interest surged 48%) 15.

Child Safety Lawsuit Risk: Louisiana AG lawsuit (23) drove put volume at $95-$100 strikes (put/call ratio spiked to 1.2x on Aug 16).

Volatility & Positioning :

IV Rank: Current implied volatility 65% (vs. 30-day avg of 58%), pricing in ±12% move by Aug 23 expiry.

Open Interest Skew: Max pain at $120 with 28,000+ open contracts; $125C (Sep 20) shows 15,000+ OI, reflecting bullish speculation [additional_info].

Market Sentiment:

Retail Surge: Mentions on Reddit/StockTwits rose 32% this week, driving short-dated OTM calls (e.g., Aug 23 $130C volume up 230%).

Institutional Flow: Block trades >$1M favor puts (65% of large trades), suggesting hedging against legal/earnings risks.

Key Options Trades to Watch:

Strike/Expiry       Volume (Last 24h)    Open Interest IV (%)

$120C (Aug 23)   12,340 28,500              68%

$100P (Sep 20)    8,950 15,200               72%

$130C (Sep 20)    5,670 9,800                 65%

Put/Call Ratio : 0.89 (bullish bias but elevated puts vs. 30-day avg 0.74).

Strategic Considerations:

Catalyst Play: Q3 bookings growth (Nov 2025) may drive upside; deep OTM calls ($140+) offer leveraged exposure.

Hedging: $95-$105 puts (Sep/Oct expiry) protect against lawsuit-driven selloffs.

IV Crush Risk: Post-earnings IV compression (estimated 35-40% drop) favors selling options post-catalyst.

Risk Note: Roblox’s -84 P/E and legal overhang amplify downside risk; avoid naked short puts.

Disclosure: The TigerAI's reply is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.