这是我周末的定期报告。订阅的读者在周内还将收到不定期的市场观点更新。不定期更新是纯中文的，取决于市场的状态和我的行程安排。感谢您的阅读和支持。

Soaring turnover is a bull market hallmark.

Last week saw sharp volatility. On Thursday, Bloomberg reported “China Eyes Curbs on Stock Speculation”, triggering a steep decline in growth stocks. STAR50 dropped nearly 8%, marking its biggest single day plunge this year.

Since July, we've argued that Beijing's policy pivot from tolerating deflation to reflation is fueling the current bull market (20250727 China’s Anti-Involution Trade). The Yarlung-Tsangbo river project underscores this policy shift. Traders show now buy reflationary assets and scale back on those tied to deflation. We are glad to see that major investment banks are beginning to share these perspectives。

上周市场出现剧烈波动。周四，彭博社发表了一篇关于监管拟限制股票市场投机的新闻，引发成长股大幅下跌。科创50指数下跌近8%，创下今年最大单日跌幅。

其实，自7月以来，我们就认为中国的政策已从容忍通缩转向刺激通胀，这是推动当前牛市的最重要的动力（2025年7月27日《中国的反内卷交易》）。雅鲁藏布江工程的宣布凸显了这一政策转变。交易员现在应买入以通胀为主题的资产，同时减少以通缩为主题的持仓。我们很高兴看到各大投行也开始认同这些观点。