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时隔十载，上证指数终于再度叩开那久违的整数关口。在近期的市场分析中，我依然选择以《易经》卦象为蓍龟，试图窥见未来市场的幽微。然而在与读者的交流中，我察觉到不少人对这部古代哲学经典仍有郢书燕解之误。

今年俗务鞅掌，变数频生，我竟无暇秉笔将这些多年沉淀下来的预测之法与交易要诀系统整理。原版翻译以文言为主，略显晦涩，有碍读者理解。今把原文重新翻译，并将中英文版同时呈现。

去年量化巨震后，我曾在此文以《易经》为经纬，既阐释市场预测的要义，又预测了那场风暴后形成的市场底部。回首来路，彼时股指尚在二千六百点间踯躅。而今星霜荏苒，我们似乎又将要展开新的篇章。

—— 要点 —— 

Market illiquidity that has been a source of microcaps alpha turned into the stem of volatility. In the end, not everyone could be bailed out or worthy of it. Chinese sentiment towards uncertainty suggests that any potential source of volatily would be frown upon and heavily regulated.

曾为小微盘阿尔法之源的市场流动性突显匮乏，终成波动率之根。毕竟，非所有沉舟皆可渡，亦非皆值得渡。中华文化对于不确定性的审慎态度，注定了任何潜在波动源皆难免遭致蹙眉相斥，并施以重典规训。

- The six negative candlesticks during the quant-quake resemble the “K’un” hexagram in the I-Ching. This hexagram suggested being pliable and prudent during the plunge, and a reversal of trends. It is prescient. Now property remains the overhang.

量化巨震中的六连阴，神似《易经》坤卦之象。此卦喻示暴跌中宜守柔持谨，静待趋势反转。如今观之，此卦象确有先见之明，市场阴极阳生。如今量化巨震似已尘埃落定，唯房地产之阴霾，仍是悬顶之剑。

- Change is the immutable Tao. Forecasting is to recognize subtle changes in their germinal state to shape the outcome of the future. And so, we are not blindly accepting our fate, but taking charge of our destiny.   

易变，乃天道之常。预测之要义，在于洞悉青萍之末的微妙嬗变，并随之而动、调吾策以应之，以图未来之局。故而，命由天定，运在人谋。

—— 正文 —— 

... In late January, just before the Year of the Dragon, China markets plunged. Some dubbed it China’s “quant-quake”, as structured financial products with embedded put options kicked in, and quant funds struggled to re-balance in a vicious downward spiral. It was one of the darkest episodes in the Chinese market.

腊月之末，甲辰之交，中国股市遭遇罕见抛压。专家称之为中国市场的一次“量化地震”，因嵌入看跌期权的结构性金融衍生品密集敲入，量化基金在恶性下跌的漩涡中挣扎求生，这是中国市场历史上最为黯淡的篇章之一。

In reality, it was the vicissitudes of the market-neutral strategies, the utter collapse of the “snowballs” and the abrupt changes in regulatory rules that together germinated a perfect storm. Each element in its own right was apposite, yet together in the unfolding conditions of statu nascendi, they ended up roiling the market, generating unfathomable losses with probability of occurrence of ~ 1 to 1,000,000,000, or about once in two million years. It should never have happened.

其实，那是市场中性策略的兴衰、"雪球"产品的崩盘以及交易规则的突然变化，共同孕育了一场完美风暴。各元素本身无可厚非，然而随着市场情况不断地演绎而形成负反馈，这些元素的合力最终剧烈地搅动了市场，造成了难以估量的损失。而这些极端事件发生的概率约为 10 亿分之一，或约两百万年一次。这样的黑天鹅，本不应发生。

In this piece, we refer to the autochthonous wisdom encrypted in the I-Ching, or the Book of Changes, from the Yellow-River Culture that originated 5,000 years ago. We are not trying to play the ghost or the devil, but the I-Ching is a foundational text for two of China’s dominant schools of philosophy, the Taoist, and the Confucianism.

在这篇文章中，我们言及五千年前黄河文明所孕育的《易经》内蕴的上古智慧。并非装神弄鬼、故弄玄虚，但《易经》乃道家三玄之冠，亦是儒家六经之首，是中国两大古典哲学学派的奠基之作。

Till today, Taoism and Confucianism still guide the everyday life in China, with Confucianism governing a harmonious society on hierarchy in which the Chinese practices Taoism to wield balance with the exogeneous world. Our own proprietary theory and models of economic cycle are in part developed based on the principles of the “Ch’ien 乾卦” trigram in the I-Ching. In this report, we focus on the “Tao 

道“ of the I-Ching, drawing the metaphysics and dualism views from this Chinese classics.

至今，儒道两家仍指引着中土日常。儒家治世，序列天人；民间修道，以应万变。我们独创的经济周期理论和量化模型，亦借鉴《易经》“乾卦”之精髓而立。本文专注于《易经》之“道”，由此汲取中华之经典玄学与二元论的思想。

“Hoarfrost Underfoot” 初六：履霜，冰将至

The I-Ching is a book recording a sacred ritual of our ancestors from primordial times throwing yarrow stalks and divining the future. The eight trigrams formed by a combination of six whole or broken lines are conceived as heaven and earth, and everything between them. Over the centuries, hairsplitting cabalistic suppositions about how to interpret the trigrams have been shrouding the I-Ching with mysteries, leaving the book with a reputation of inscrutable profundity.

《易经》记载了吾辈先祖自太古以来，古人抛筮卜卦，以蓍草卜天下之大事。六爻的开合断续，化为八卦，包罗天地乾坤及其间万物。岁月悠悠，纵历世纪，历代层出不穷之奥义推演后，《易经》被重重神秘所笼罩，令其以深邃而不可测之名流芳百世。