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甲骨文成AI债务炸弹？摩根士丹利：最脆弱一环已暴露

摩根士丹利的信用分析师认为情况还会进一步恶化。但最主要原因在于甲骨文快速膨胀的金融负债——包括债券和数据中心租赁形式，摩根士丹利预测其规模未来三年将增长近两倍。因此，摩根士丹利分析师预测，甲骨文五年期CDS合约价格很可能很快突破150个基点，且“长期来看可能进一步扩大”。在此提醒：这意味着为1000万美元甲骨文债券投保五年期的年成本已从今夏的不足4万美元升至约15万美元。

甲骨文成AI债务炸弹？摩根士丹利：最脆弱一环已暴露

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251128163549a7171b95&s=b><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在对冲基金同时做空其股票和债券的情况下，甲骨文(ORCL.N)已成为人工智能超大规模供应商阵营中最弱势的成员。摩根士丹利的信用分析师认为情况还会进一步恶化。该投行分析师林赛·泰勒（Lindsay Tyler）与大卫·汉伯格（David Hamburger）此前曾建议投资者买入甲骨文的信用违约互换(CDS)，但同时通过做多其债券进行对冲。这种基于CDS将对甲骨文信用恶化作出最剧烈反应的“基差交易”...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251128163549a7171b95&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0158827781.USD":" ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0965509283.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY 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ACC","ORCL":"甲骨文"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251128163549a7171b95&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2586202900","content_text":"在对冲基金同时做空其股票和债券的情况下，甲骨文(ORCL.N)已成为人工智能超大规模供应商阵营中最弱势的成员。摩根士丹利的信用分析师认为情况还会进一步恶化。该投行分析师林赛·泰勒（Lindsay Tyler）与大卫·汉伯格（David Hamburger）此前曾建议投资者买入甲骨文的信用违约互换(CDS)，但同时通过做多其债券进行对冲。这种基于CDS将对甲骨文信用恶化作出最剧烈反应的“基差交易”策略，如今已被调整为建议投资者抛售债券、单纯做多甲骨文CDS，理由包括其“资金缺口、扩张的资产负债表、资本支出与资产淘汰风险、评级压力、交易对手风险”等。但最主要原因在于甲骨文快速膨胀的金融负债——包括债券和数据中心租赁形式，摩根士丹利预测其规模未来三年将增长近两倍。这些经调整的净负债预测实际上在去年9月就已作出，而摩根士丹利黯然地指出，当前数据“可能甚至被低估了”。更广泛层面，市场对Meta Platforms(META.O)、亚马逊(AMZN.O)和Alphabet(GOOGL.O)等科技巨头发债行为的担忧日益加剧，而甲骨文之所以承受最大压力，纯粹因为它是其中最脆弱的一环：“我们认为今秋超大规模发行主体的巨额债券交易改变了债券持有人情绪，这些交易虽提供利差溢价下的投资替代品，但也引发对整个生态系统长期资本支出及债务需求的质疑。”因此，摩根士丹利分析师预测，甲骨文五年期CDS合约价格很可能很快突破150个基点，且“长期来看可能进一步扩大”。在此提醒：这意味着为1000万美元甲骨文债券投保五年期的年成本已从今夏的不足4万美元升至约15万美元。分析师警告，若公司在融资策略方面继续保持有限沟通，其CDS价格可能在新年逼近200个基点——这相当于2008年金融危机深渊时期的水平。泰勒与汉伯格进一步指出，即便甲骨文被迫披露更多细节，仍可能加剧投资者不安。“担忧已开始压制股价，这可能促使管理层在即将发布的财报中阐述融资计划，包括‘星际之门’项目、数据中心、资本支出与剩余绩效义务等细节。虽然此类沟通或能维持债券现价，但不能排除其令人失望、市场热情消退（如过去数月情况）或更新延迟的可能性。”需要说明的是，150-200个基点的CDS价格虽不理想，但远未达到预示公司濒临破产的恐慌水平。摩根士丹利分析师指出，甲骨文CDS价格近期飙升可能部分源于银行对其贷款风险的对冲操作，随着银行逐步将贷款分销给投资者，价格可能回落。然而，作为超大规模供应商群体中最弱小的成员，甲骨文的CDS市场已异常庞大且活跃。因此对于任何想要做空人工智能浪潮的投资者而言，这俨然成为了绝佳标的。这种趋势看起来正逐渐形成，并可能在2026年成为风潮。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCL":1.5,"MS":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}