现在市场对于半导体 _老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

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现在市场对于半导体一点瑕疵就能无限放大相比英伟达炸裂的财报都跌成这样博通现在股价新高风险可想而知预计本月股价回调到360附近。

博通AVGO：叫板英伟达，结果先锋自己先怂了？

海豚君整体观点：业绩超预期，AI订单浇凉水博通AVGO本季度收入和毛利率都达到了市场预期。而进入10月，Open AI又宣布将与博通AVGO将在2026年至2029年的4年内合作部署10GW的巨额订单。截至目前，博通AVGO明确披露的5个客户将是明年AI收入的主要来源。在公司披露了Anthropic以及Open AI的合作后，公司股价站上了350美元。博通AVGO本次的订单展望虽然是相对保守的，但还是会在短期内影响市场信心。当前的AI芯片格局之下，博通AVGO凭借“性价比”优势依然有望企稳向

博通AVGO：叫板英伟达，结果先锋自己先怂了？

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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困惑者Silver
·12-12
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老哥请教下这波看空闪迪的逻辑是啥，最近感觉一点风吹草动就开始恐慌，而且今天按理说不是博通ai订单引起的恐慌么怎么美光闪迪西数这些存储大户跟着跌一堆 [捂脸]
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- 困惑者Silver回复AaronHy:
  [抱拳] [抱拳]
  12-13
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- AaronHy:
  主要还是市场想要调整半导体产业链其次存储价格高影响算力成本行业会越来越不健康
  12-13
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想明白再上车
·12-12
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还是得等等，你会看什么指标抄底呀，到价位吗
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- 想明白再上车回复AaronHy:
  抄作业[龇牙]
  12-12
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- AaronHy:
  看线买量还有期权的买量iv 还有财报和基本面的信息现在还是要对每个票有个自己认为可以买入的价格吧比如博通我就觉得360左右我会买英伟达160左右 amd 180左右英特尔36左右特斯拉420左右等等
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src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101056607v206zq4r91z184n\"/><p><strong>海豚君整体观点：业绩超预期，AI订单浇凉水</strong></p><p>博通AVGO本季度收入和毛利率都达到了市场预期。其中营收增长，主要来自于<strong>AI业务的贡献</strong>；<strong>毛利率方面，在剔除收购摊销和重组费用影响后，本季度实际经营面的毛利率为76.6%，</strong>环比略有下滑，受毛利率较低的ASIC业务占比提升带来的结构性影响。</p><p>公司本季度的<strong>债务偿还指标（Total Debt/LTM Adjusted EBITDA）下滑至2.1，已经回到了收购前的水平，VMware的收购影响在两年内已经基本被消化</strong>。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101059234v206qenxqi59e1t\"/><p><strong>在VMware收购基本消化，市场对博通AVGO在AI业务的进展更为关注：</strong></p><p><strong>a）大厂尤其是谷歌的资本开支：</strong>大型云服务商是博通AVGO定制ASIC芯片的最终“购买方”，大厂资本开支也将直接影响公司AI业务的预期。</p><p><strong>结合各家大厂情况，海豚君预计四大核心云厂商（谷歌、Meta、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>）的合计资本开支在2026年有望接近6000亿美元左右，同比增长40%，这为明年AI 芯片市场需求的增长提供了保障。</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101059812v206v22mikwmtqx\"/><p><strong>ｂ）AI业务收入及指引：</strong>本季度公司实现65亿美元的AI 收入，环比增长13亿美元。<strong>对于下季度AI收入，公司给出了82亿美元的指引，环比增长17亿美元，好于市场预期（70-75亿美元）</strong>。</p><p><strong>谷歌是公司当前AI业务的大客户，从AI收入与谷歌资本开支的变动关系来看，两者也是紧密相关的。</strong>谷歌在三季度后将全年的资本开支指引再度上调至910-930亿美元（此前为850亿美元），其中也包含了大量的TPU需求。</p><p><strong>展望明年，市场已经将谷歌下一年的资本开支预期上调到了1350-1400亿美元，这也为博通AVGO的AI收入在下一年的增长奠定了基础。</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101110651v206rypzijr4bhr\"/><p><strong>c）“谷歌Gemini+博通”竞争力的提升：一方面谷歌近期开始量产的TPUv7在性能上已经超过了H200，部分指标也开始向<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的B200产品靠近</strong>；<strong>另一方面谷歌自身的Gemini大模型表现并不逊色于依托英伟达的GPT表现</strong>。</p><p>这为市场带来了新的思路，<strong>AI大模型也从“纯拼算力的追逐”开始转向于“投入产出比”的考量</strong>，这无疑将给英伟达垄断地位带来直接的威胁。<strong>当前博通在AI芯片的份额占据一成左右，在TPUv7量产和“性价比”优势的带动下，市场也预期未来会逐步侵蚀英伟达的份额。</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101119161v206sf5zb09bki5\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101122650v206zt1jsy6luq3\"/><p><strong>d）公司的客户及订单进展</strong>：当前的AI ASIC芯片已经有3家公司（<strong>谷歌</strong>、Meta、字节）产品实现量产，是公司AI收入的主要来源。<strong>公司也在上次交流中透露了第4个客户（Anthropic）已下达超100 亿美元AI相关订单，并将在明年三季度进行交付</strong>。</p><p>而进入10月，<strong>Open AI又宣布将与博通AVGO将在2026年至2029年的4年内合作部署10GW的巨额订单</strong>。如果这份订单能顺利落地，海豚君预估有望能带来1000-1500亿美元的收入体量。<strong>从公司的口径来看，在当前看来这更像是一个框架协议</strong>。</p><p>截至目前，<strong>博通AVGO明确披露的5个客户将是明年AI收入的主要来源。其中新增的第5个客户大约将在2026年贡献10亿美元的AI收入</strong>。</p><p><strong>结合博通AVGO当前市值（1.92万亿美元），对应公司2026财年税后核心经营利润大约为38倍PE左右（假定营收同比+50%，毛利率68.5%，税率8%）。参考同行情况，博通AVGO的估值明显高于英伟达（22xPE）和Marvell（30xPE），相对较高的估值中包含了市场对公司的定制ASIC产品抢占英伟达原有份额的期待</strong>。</p><p><strong>在公司披露了Anthropic以及Open AI的合作后，公司股价站上了350美元。之后的继续上涨并突破400美元，主要是受大厂上调资本开支、谷歌Gemini的优异表现等因素的推动</strong>。</p><p><strong>整体来看，海豚君认为公司当前股价中已经打入了此前新增的客户及订单、大厂资本开支上调后的预期。</strong>市场期待公司在财报后再次披露新增客户/订单情况，或者谷歌TPU能顺利开启外供（市场已经在传出Meta打算采购TPU），<strong>但公司却提到了“目前积压了730亿美元AI订单，并将在未来6个季度实现交付”，这在短期内给市场浇了盆凉水。</strong></p><p><strong>具体来看，根据公司上季度提到Anthropic的100亿美元订单以及本季度追加的110亿美元订单（2026年底交付）、还有第五个客户的10亿美元（2026年底交付），那730亿的订单就剩下了510亿（6个季度），对应谷歌等原有客户的平均单季度收入仅为85亿美元。</strong></p><p><strong>而公司下季度AI收入指引已经达到82亿美元，那就意味着谷歌自身的量之后5个季度看起来都不太增长。</strong></p><p><strong>博通AVGO本次的订单展望虽然是相对保守的，但还是会在短期内影响市场信心。而中长期角度看，海豚君认为外部客户还是会有采购谷歌TPU的动机，这既能弥补当前算力供给端的不足，也能成为对英伟达“压价”的筹码。</strong></p><p><strong>当前的AI芯片格局之下，博通AVGO凭借“性价比”优势依然有望企稳向上，后续存在上调AI业务展望的潜在可能性，而英伟达的高毛利率/市场份额还是会受到来自“谷歌Gemimi+博通”的竞争压力。</strong></p><p>以下是详细分析</p><p><strong>一、博通主要业务情况</strong></p><p>博通此前的业绩增长主要来自于AI业务和VMware的收购并表，因而AI业务中的定制ASIC芯片和VMware的定价调整策略，是市场的最主要关注点。具体业务来看：</p><p><strong>1）半导体解决方案</strong>：主要受益于AI收入的增长，主要受益于谷歌、meta和字节跳动等客户对定制ASIC的需求。而其他非AI业务受下游需求影响较大，表现相对低迷。</p><p><strong>2）基础设施软件</strong>：VMware并表，软件收入占比接近4成。公司对VMware的客户进行定价策略调整，涨价能带动收入提升，而这一影响已经明显弱化。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101123646v206gqey347uzpa\"/><p><strong>二、整体业绩：AI推动稳步增长</strong></p><p><strong>2.1收入端</strong></p><p><strong>博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)在2025财年第四季度实现营收180亿美元，同比增长28%，好于市场预期（175亿美元）。</strong>同比增长主要来自于AI业务增长的带动。</p><p><strong>环比层面，公司本季度收入环比增长20亿美元</strong>，其中AI业务贡献了13亿美元的增量，是最大增长来源；软件业务环比也有回升。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101134291v206ggxvg6c7mee\"/><p><strong>2.2<span>毛利</span>端</strong></p><p><strong>博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)在2025财年第四季度实现毛利122.5亿美元，同比增长36%。</strong>其中博通在本季度的毛利率为68%，环比回升。</p><p><strong>如果在剔除收购摊销和重组费用影响后，本季度实际经营面的毛利率为76.6%，环比下滑0.17pct</strong>，<strong>主要是因为定制ASIC业务毛利率相对偏低，而随着占比提升带来了结构性影响。</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101138064v2061t4tk1x7672\"/><p><strong>2.3经营费用</strong></p><p><strong>博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)在2025财年第四季度的经营费用为47.4亿美元，环比略有回落。</strong></p><p>在剔除股权激励的情况下，公司本季度的<strong>核心经营费用（研发费用+销售及管理费用）为21.3亿美元，环比增加0.8亿美元</strong>。在完成VMware并表后，公司聚焦于对经营费用的削减基本完成。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101144553v2067nm1y3awg9d\"/><p><strong>2.4利润端</strong></p><p><strong>博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)在2025财年第四季度实现<span>净利润</span>85.2亿美元。</strong></p><p>相比于净利润，<strong>海豚君认为核心经营利润（=毛利润-研发费用-销售及管理费用）更能反应公司真实的经营情况。博通AVGO本季度实现核心经营利润97亿美元，环比增加16亿美元，主要来自于AI业务增长的带动。</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101145759v2067ewgh1ya7qs\"/><p><strong>2.5博通的EBITDA</strong></p><p>由于博通擅长外延并购，公司通常把调整后EBITDA%作为公司的经营面指标之一。<strong>而海豚君测算公司2025财年第四季度的调整后EBITDA%回升至67.8%，好于公司此前指引（67%）。</strong></p><p>进一步观察公司的偿债能力，<strong>公司本季度总<span>负债</span>/LTM Adjusted EBITDA的比值继续回落至2.1</strong>。在AI业绩增长的带动下，该比值已经回到了收购前的水平。这意味着公司收购VMware的影响在两年的时间里基本被消化，后续公司可能又会开始寻找新的并购机会。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101157122v2067zu92z9q5cw\"/><p><strong>三、各业务具体情况：AI环增提速，VMware整合完成</strong></p><p>博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)的主要业务有半导体解决方案和基础设施软件两部分。随着公司对VMware收购并表的完成，公司基础设施软件业务的占比明显提升，当前软件业务收入占比接近40%左右。</p><p>而在两大类业务中具体包括，<strong>1）半导体解决方案</strong>：网络、无线、存储连接、宽带、工业及其他；<strong>2）基础设施软件</strong>：VMware、CA、Symantec、Brocade等。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101158774v206kruphtep8eg\"/><p><strong>3.1半导体解决方案</strong></p><p><strong>博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)在2025财年第四季度的半导体解决方案实现营收110.7亿美元，同比增长34.5%。</strong>公司半导体业务本季度的增长主要来自于AI业务的带动，非AI业务保持平稳。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101205079v206mxeuepyn0wq\"/><p><strong>1）AI业务</strong></p><p><strong>当前AI业务是公司的业绩重心，公司本季度的AI收入65亿美元，环比增长为13亿美元，环增再次提速。</strong></p><p><strong>当前公司AI收入来自于三大客户（谷歌、Meta和字节），在谷歌、Meta等大厂陆续上调资本开支的影响下，公司AI收入增长将再次提速。公司预计下季度AI收入82亿美元，环增17亿美元。</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101205718v206vu32g948fc4\"/><p><strong>博通的ASIC业务当前明确宣布的有5个客户，分别是谷歌、Meta、字节、Anthropic、第五个客户（10亿美元），都将在明年为公司的AI业务贡献收入。至于Open AI与公司签订的10GW订单，虽然这有望给公司带来1000-1500亿美元的增量，但目前来看更像是一个框架协议。</strong></p><p>对于AI业务中短期的表现，仍关注于当前三个客户的产品表现，尤其是谷歌TPUv6及TPU v7的量产情况。<strong>至于Anthropic和第五个客户（10亿美元）的订单，都将在明年下半年才进行交付，因而公司明年AI业务将呈现出“前低后高”表现</strong>。</p><p><strong>另外，公司提到了“目前积压了730亿美元AI订单，并将在未来6个季度实现交付”，这无疑在短期内给市场浇了盆凉水。</strong></p><p><strong>具体来看，根据公司上季度提到Anthropic的100亿美元订单以及本季度追加的110亿美元订单、还有第五个客户的10亿美元，那730亿的订单就剩下了510亿（6个季度），对应谷歌等原有客户的平均单季度收入仅为85亿美元。</strong></p><p><strong>而公司下季度AI收入指引已经达到82亿美元，而公司下季度AI收入指引已经达到82亿美元，那就意味着谷歌自身的量之后5个季度看起来都不太增长。</strong></p><p>从中长期角度看，海<strong>豚君认为外部客户还是会有采购谷歌TPU的动机</strong>，这既能弥补当前算力供给端的不足，也能成为对英伟达“压价”的筹码。当前的AI芯片格局之下，博通AVGO凭借“性价比”优势依然有望企稳向上，后续存在上调AI业务展望的潜在可能性<strong>。</strong></p><p><strong>当谷歌TPU开始扩大对外交付，也能进一步提升博通AVGO在AI芯片市场的竞争力，从英伟达手中抢下更多的市场份额。</strong></p><p><strong>2）非AI业务</strong></p><p><strong>公司本季度非AI的半导体业务收入为46亿美元，同比增长1.3%</strong>，保持平稳。</p><p>公司的非AI业务主要包括：企业存储、宽带业务、无线业务和工业及其他。具体来看：带业务实现稳健复苏，无线业务持平，而由于企业支出持续呈现有限复苏迹象，其他所有终端市场均出现下滑<strong>。</strong></p><p><strong>3.2基础设施软件</strong></p><p><strong>博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)在2025财年第四季度的基础设施软件实现营收69.4亿美元，同比增长19%。</strong>增长主要来自于VMware的并购整合和收费模式调整（从永久许可证模式全面转向于订阅模式）。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101207245v206xo01r60mjw0\"/><p>博通的软件业务主要分为VMware和CA&amp;Symantec&amp;Brocade等原软件业务两部分。由于公司的CA&amp;Symantec&amp;Brocade等原软件业务基本维持在20亿美元左右的季度收入，<strong>因而公司软件业务的主要看点是收购进来的VMware</strong>。</p><p><strong>VMware对公司业绩的影响，海豚君认为主要是两方面：“并购在财务上的消化进展”和“永久许可证全面转向订阅模式”。而结合本季度软件业务的表现，海豚君预期VMware部分本季度实现收入约有47亿美元。</strong></p><p>而当前许可证用户转向订阅模式的比例，已经超过60%。随着订阅模式渗透率的提升，VMware和软件业务收入仍有望增长，但很难有类似于并购整合的高增长。</p><p><strong>结合当前债务偿还指标下降至2.1，VMware的收购基本已经被公司消化，公司也不再单独披露VMware细分数据，AI业务是公司最主要的关注点。</strong></p><p>&lt;此处结束&gt;</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>博通AVGO：叫板英伟达，结果先锋自己先怂了？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n博通AVGO：叫板英伟达，结果先锋自己先怂了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-12 09:44 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251212101212a443a3fe&s=b><strong>海豚研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>博通 (AVGO.O）北京时间12月12日凌晨，美股盘后发布2025财年第四季度财报（截至2025年10月）：1.整体业绩：博通 (AVGO.O)本季度实现180亿美元，同比增长28.2%，好于市场预期（175亿美元）。环比增长20亿美元，主要来自于AI业务增长的带动。公司本季度毛利率68%，而在剔除收购摊销和重组费用影响后，本季度实际经营面的毛利率为76.6%，环比略有下滑（-0.17pct），...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251212101212a443a3fe&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2237957811.SGD":"NIKKO AM GLOBAL EQUITY \"F\" (SGD) ACC","LU0708994859.HKD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (HKD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4567":"ESG概念","LU0795875086.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU1992135399.USD":"Allianz Global Intelligent Cities AT Acc USD","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU1935042215.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (USD) INC A","IE0003U64NQ7.SGD":"PIMCO 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(AVGO.O)本季度实现180亿美元，同比增长28.2%，好于市场预期（175亿美元）。环比增长20亿美元，主要来自于AI业务增长的带动。公司本季度毛利率68%，而在剔除收购摊销和重组费用影响后，本季度实际经营面的毛利率为76.6%，环比略有下滑（-0.17pct），主要是因为定制ASIC业务毛利率相对偏低，而随着占比提升带来了结构性影响。2.半导体业务：本季度实现110.7亿美元，环比增长19亿美元，其中AI业务贡献了主要增量。具体来看：①AI业务：65亿美元，环比增长13亿美元，好于市场预期（62亿美元）。公司的AI收入主要来自于三大客户（谷歌、Meta和字节），季度增长主要来源于大客户谷歌TPUv6出货增加的带动。在三季度的财报后，谷歌、Meta等大厂又纷纷上调了资本开支展望，公司的AI业务增长有望继续提速，公司预期下季度AI业务收入82亿美元，环增提升至17亿美元。②非AI业务：46亿美元，同比增长1.3%，非AI业务的整体表现平稳。从各下游来看，本季度宽带业务实现稳健复苏，无线业务持平，而由于企业支出持续呈现有限复苏迹象，其他所有终端市场均出现下滑。3.基础设施软件：本季度实现69.4亿美元，同比增长19%，主要是受VMware并购整合及收费模式调整的带动（从永久许可证模式全面转向于订阅模式）。软件业务未来将主要受益于VMware订阅模式的内生增长，但并购带来的高增长已经结束。4.经营费用端：本季度核心经营费用（研发费用+销售及管理费用）40.9亿美元，环比基本持平。在规模效应的影响下，核心经营费用率下降至22.7%左右。在近两年的经营费用中，公司明显增加了股权激励等相关支出（当前股权激励占比将近一半）。若剔除股权激励的影响，公司本季度的核心经营费用为21.3亿美元，环比增加0.8亿美元。5.VMware整合进展：海豚君引入了债务偿还指标（Total Debt/LTM Adjusted EBITDA），经测算公司该指标在本季度进一步下降至2.1。该指标已经回到了收购前的水位，收购VMware对公司债务端的影响在两年内基本被消化。6.博通业绩指引：2026财年第一季度预期收入191亿美元左右，市场预期（185亿美元），公司预期2026财年第一季度的调整后EBITDA利润率为67%，其中AI业务有望继续增长至82亿美元。海豚君整体观点：业绩超预期，AI订单浇凉水博通AVGO本季度收入和毛利率都达到了市场预期。其中营收增长，主要来自于AI业务的贡献；毛利率方面，在剔除收购摊销和重组费用影响后，本季度实际经营面的毛利率为76.6%，环比略有下滑，受毛利率较低的ASIC业务占比提升带来的结构性影响。公司本季度的债务偿还指标（Total Debt/LTM Adjusted EBITDA）下滑至2.1，已经回到了收购前的水平，VMware的收购影响在两年内已经基本被消化。在VMware收购基本消化，市场对博通AVGO在AI业务的进展更为关注：a）大厂尤其是谷歌的资本开支：大型云服务商是博通AVGO定制ASIC芯片的最终“购买方”，大厂资本开支也将直接影响公司AI业务的预期。结合各家大厂情况，海豚君预计四大核心云厂商（谷歌、Meta、微软和亚马逊）的合计资本开支在2026年有望接近6000亿美元左右，同比增长40%，这为明年AI 芯片市场需求的增长提供了保障。ｂ）AI业务收入及指引：本季度公司实现65亿美元的AI 收入，环比增长13亿美元。对于下季度AI收入，公司给出了82亿美元的指引，环比增长17亿美元，好于市场预期（70-75亿美元）。谷歌是公司当前AI业务的大客户，从AI收入与谷歌资本开支的变动关系来看，两者也是紧密相关的。谷歌在三季度后将全年的资本开支指引再度上调至910-930亿美元（此前为850亿美元），其中也包含了大量的TPU需求。展望明年，市场已经将谷歌下一年的资本开支预期上调到了1350-1400亿美元，这也为博通AVGO的AI收入在下一年的增长奠定了基础。c）“谷歌Gemini+博通”竞争力的提升：一方面谷歌近期开始量产的TPUv7在性能上已经超过了H200，部分指标也开始向英伟达的B200产品靠近；另一方面谷歌自身的Gemini大模型表现并不逊色于依托英伟达的GPT表现。这为市场带来了新的思路，AI大模型也从“纯拼算力的追逐”开始转向于“投入产出比”的考量，这无疑将给英伟达垄断地位带来直接的威胁。当前博通在AI芯片的份额占据一成左右，在TPUv7量产和“性价比”优势的带动下，市场也预期未来会逐步侵蚀英伟达的份额。d）公司的客户及订单进展：当前的AI ASIC芯片已经有3家公司（谷歌、Meta、字节）产品实现量产，是公司AI收入的主要来源。公司也在上次交流中透露了第4个客户（Anthropic）已下达超100 亿美元AI相关订单，并将在明年三季度进行交付。而进入10月，Open AI又宣布将与博通AVGO将在2026年至2029年的4年内合作部署10GW的巨额订单。如果这份订单能顺利落地，海豚君预估有望能带来1000-1500亿美元的收入体量。从公司的口径来看，在当前看来这更像是一个框架协议。截至目前，博通AVGO明确披露的5个客户将是明年AI收入的主要来源。其中新增的第5个客户大约将在2026年贡献10亿美元的AI收入。结合博通AVGO当前市值（1.92万亿美元），对应公司2026财年税后核心经营利润大约为38倍PE左右（假定营收同比+50%，毛利率68.5%，税率8%）。参考同行情况，博通AVGO的估值明显高于英伟达（22xPE）和Marvell（30xPE），相对较高的估值中包含了市场对公司的定制ASIC产品抢占英伟达原有份额的期待。在公司披露了Anthropic以及Open AI的合作后，公司股价站上了350美元。之后的继续上涨并突破400美元，主要是受大厂上调资本开支、谷歌Gemini的优异表现等因素的推动。整体来看，海豚君认为公司当前股价中已经打入了此前新增的客户及订单、大厂资本开支上调后的预期。市场期待公司在财报后再次披露新增客户/订单情况，或者谷歌TPU能顺利开启外供（市场已经在传出Meta打算采购TPU），但公司却提到了“目前积压了730亿美元AI订单，并将在未来6个季度实现交付”，这在短期内给市场浇了盆凉水。具体来看，根据公司上季度提到Anthropic的100亿美元订单以及本季度追加的110亿美元订单（2026年底交付）、还有第五个客户的10亿美元（2026年底交付），那730亿的订单就剩下了510亿（6个季度），对应谷歌等原有客户的平均单季度收入仅为85亿美元。而公司下季度AI收入指引已经达到82亿美元，那就意味着谷歌自身的量之后5个季度看起来都不太增长。博通AVGO本次的订单展望虽然是相对保守的，但还是会在短期内影响市场信心。而中长期角度看，海豚君认为外部客户还是会有采购谷歌TPU的动机，这既能弥补当前算力供给端的不足，也能成为对英伟达“压价”的筹码。当前的AI芯片格局之下，博通AVGO凭借“性价比”优势依然有望企稳向上，后续存在上调AI业务展望的潜在可能性，而英伟达的高毛利率/市场份额还是会受到来自“谷歌Gemimi+博通”的竞争压力。以下是详细分析一、博通主要业务情况博通此前的业绩增长主要来自于AI业务和VMware的收购并表，因而AI业务中的定制ASIC芯片和VMware的定价调整策略，是市场的最主要关注点。具体业务来看：1）半导体解决方案：主要受益于AI收入的增长，主要受益于谷歌、meta和字节跳动等客户对定制ASIC的需求。而其他非AI业务受下游需求影响较大，表现相对低迷。2）基础设施软件：VMware并表，软件收入占比接近4成。公司对VMware的客户进行定价策略调整，涨价能带动收入提升，而这一影响已经明显弱化。二、整体业绩：AI推动稳步增长2.1收入端博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)在2025财年第四季度实现营收180亿美元，同比增长28%，好于市场预期（175亿美元）。同比增长主要来自于AI业务增长的带动。环比层面，公司本季度收入环比增长20亿美元，其中AI业务贡献了13亿美元的增量，是最大增长来源；软件业务环比也有回升。2.2毛利端博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)在2025财年第四季度实现毛利122.5亿美元，同比增长36%。其中博通在本季度的毛利率为68%，环比回升。如果在剔除收购摊销和重组费用影响后，本季度实际经营面的毛利率为76.6%，环比下滑0.17pct，主要是因为定制ASIC业务毛利率相对偏低，而随着占比提升带来了结构性影响。2.3经营费用博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)在2025财年第四季度的经营费用为47.4亿美元，环比略有回落。在剔除股权激励的情况下，公司本季度的核心经营费用（研发费用+销售及管理费用）为21.3亿美元，环比增加0.8亿美元。在完成VMware并表后，公司聚焦于对经营费用的削减基本完成。2.4利润端博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)在2025财年第四季度实现净利润85.2亿美元。相比于净利润，海豚君认为核心经营利润（=毛利润-研发费用-销售及管理费用）更能反应公司真实的经营情况。博通AVGO本季度实现核心经营利润97亿美元，环比增加16亿美元，主要来自于AI业务增长的带动。2.5博通的EBITDA由于博通擅长外延并购，公司通常把调整后EBITDA%作为公司的经营面指标之一。而海豚君测算公司2025财年第四季度的调整后EBITDA%回升至67.8%，好于公司此前指引（67%）。进一步观察公司的偿债能力，公司本季度总负债/LTM Adjusted EBITDA的比值继续回落至2.1。在AI业绩增长的带动下，该比值已经回到了收购前的水平。这意味着公司收购VMware的影响在两年的时间里基本被消化，后续公司可能又会开始寻找新的并购机会。三、各业务具体情况：AI环增提速，VMware整合完成博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)的主要业务有半导体解决方案和基础设施软件两部分。随着公司对VMware收购并表的完成，公司基础设施软件业务的占比明显提升，当前软件业务收入占比接近40%左右。而在两大类业务中具体包括，1）半导体解决方案：网络、无线、存储连接、宽带、工业及其他；2）基础设施软件：VMware、CA、Symantec、Brocade等。3.1半导体解决方案博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)在2025财年第四季度的半导体解决方案实现营收110.7亿美元，同比增长34.5%。公司半导体业务本季度的增长主要来自于AI业务的带动，非AI业务保持平稳。1）AI业务当前AI业务是公司的业绩重心，公司本季度的AI收入65亿美元，环比增长为13亿美元，环增再次提速。当前公司AI收入来自于三大客户（谷歌、Meta和字节），在谷歌、Meta等大厂陆续上调资本开支的影响下，公司AI收入增长将再次提速。公司预计下季度AI收入82亿美元，环增17亿美元。博通的ASIC业务当前明确宣布的有5个客户，分别是谷歌、Meta、字节、Anthropic、第五个客户（10亿美元），都将在明年为公司的AI业务贡献收入。至于Open AI与公司签订的10GW订单，虽然这有望给公司带来1000-1500亿美元的增量，但目前来看更像是一个框架协议。对于AI业务中短期的表现，仍关注于当前三个客户的产品表现，尤其是谷歌TPUv6及TPU v7的量产情况。至于Anthropic和第五个客户（10亿美元）的订单，都将在明年下半年才进行交付，因而公司明年AI业务将呈现出“前低后高”表现。另外，公司提到了“目前积压了730亿美元AI订单，并将在未来6个季度实现交付”，这无疑在短期内给市场浇了盆凉水。具体来看，根据公司上季度提到Anthropic的100亿美元订单以及本季度追加的110亿美元订单、还有第五个客户的10亿美元，那730亿的订单就剩下了510亿（6个季度），对应谷歌等原有客户的平均单季度收入仅为85亿美元。而公司下季度AI收入指引已经达到82亿美元，而公司下季度AI收入指引已经达到82亿美元，那就意味着谷歌自身的量之后5个季度看起来都不太增长。从中长期角度看，海豚君认为外部客户还是会有采购谷歌TPU的动机，这既能弥补当前算力供给端的不足，也能成为对英伟达“压价”的筹码。当前的AI芯片格局之下，博通AVGO凭借“性价比”优势依然有望企稳向上，后续存在上调AI业务展望的潜在可能性。当谷歌TPU开始扩大对外交付，也能进一步提升博通AVGO在AI芯片市场的竞争力，从英伟达手中抢下更多的市场份额。2）非AI业务公司本季度非AI的半导体业务收入为46亿美元，同比增长1.3%，保持平稳。公司的非AI业务主要包括：企业存储、宽带业务、无线业务和工业及其他。具体来看：带业务实现稳健复苏，无线业务持平，而由于企业支出持续呈现有限复苏迹象，其他所有终端市场均出现下滑。3.2基础设施软件博通BROADCOM 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