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02-14

分析有道理

阿里猛攻，美团巨亏：2026外卖大战怎么打？

2月13日，美团公告称2025年预计录得约233亿元—243亿元的巨额亏损。美团上一次巨亏是在2021年，当时美团豪赌社区团购等新业务，年亏235.36亿元。为此，阿里、京东、美团在2025年Q2、Q3两季共烧掉1000多亿元。美团被动参战，代价惨重。目前其前置仓数量超1000个，机构预估2025年GMV约265亿元。外卖价格战不可持续，监管部门也明确禁止非理性的恶性价格竞争。

阿里猛攻，美团巨亏：2026外卖大战怎么打？

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里</a>则不断加码。近期阿里核心管理层在内部会议上称：继续加大投入淘宝闪购，三年不惧亏损。这不是阿里第一次放话。1月初在在面向投资者的交流会上，阿里已经明确提出：2026年加大投入，直至即时零售市场绝对第一。美团与阿里，分别从生活服务电商和实物电商走进了即时零售的战场。王兴认为，零售的终局是“万物到家”，所以早在2021年，他就将美团的战略从“Food+Platform”升级为“零售+科技”。除了餐饮外卖，近年来美团在实物零售领域不断攻城略地。美团来袭，阿里、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>不会视而不见。去年开打的外卖大战，就是京东、阿里攻入美团腹地，反击美团、防御自家城池的举措。三方看起来把战场开在了外卖领域，背后真实的意图是争夺即时零售版图。相比阿里、京东的远场电商，即时零售是本地供给、即时履约，满足即时需求；这是一个新赛道，规模和增速可观。其次，即时零售目前是美团零售的主战场。阿里、京东一方面想吃到即时零售的增量蛋糕，另一方面，想遏制美团对其远场电商的蚕食。于是就有了三方参与的外卖价格战。为此，阿里、京东、美团在2025年Q2、Q3两季共烧掉1000多亿元。京东是外卖大战的发起者，在烧掉几百亿之后，也最早偃旗息鼓。阿里后来居上，越战越勇，补贴最为财大气粗。美团被动参战，代价惨重。可以说，外卖大战至今，每一家都是杀敌一千，自损八百，无人真正胜出。但外卖价格战还没有立刻停火的意思。2026年，淘宝闪购宁愿巨额亏损也要争夺即时零售第一名。美团作为即时零售市场的领先者，不想卷也要战，巨亏也要做第一。这局怎么破？美团“重仓”即时零售美团及王兴多次公开表达反对低价内卷。从财报数据看，美团在克制烧钱，亏损在收窄。2025年，核心本地商业经营亏损预计68-70亿；Q4亏损99.41-101.41亿元，低于Q3的140.71亿，也低于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>/中金等预期的亏损110亿-115亿元。<img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/news_bt/OR48NJH5jHo8_U0QmDRYn4ghec8rDClFg0aMcpRiJ2LeQAA/0\"/>2026年，除了在外卖大战里继续熬，王兴选择主动出击——新年伊始斥资50亿收购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">叮咚买菜</a>。王兴不轻易做收购。2018年香港上市至今，美团做过的收购屈指可数。外界能叫的出名号的，一个是花20亿元收购光年之外，另一个就是花50亿元收购叮咚买菜，前者落子AI，后者剑指即时零售。把时间线拉长了看，美团收购叮咚，不是一个孤立事件。过去几年，美团零售尝试过多种业态，包括：美团闪购、美团优选（社区团购）、小象超市、团好货等。美团优选2020年上线，营收最高时达千亿规模，是仅次于多多买菜的第二大玩家。2025年，美团优选全部关停，彻底退出社区团购市场。烧了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">数百亿</a>做起来的业务，说关就关了，说明美团需要力出一孔，把资源和精力集中到更重要的事上：即时零售。经过几年摸索，美团逐渐将零售业务聚焦在即时零售，并将美团闪购和小象超市锁定为其通往即时零售购物平台的主要路径。美团闪购是平台模式，供应商包括线下实体零售店、闪电仓、零售品牌商等；小象超市是自营（前置仓）模式。美团从2019年开始做小象超市，截至2025年，小象超市前置仓约1000个，覆盖20个城市；据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>预估，2025年GMV超600亿元。叮咚买菜是华东地区前置仓生鲜电商龙头，是有史以来生鲜电商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">创业公司</a>中为数不多的幸存者和持续盈利者。目前其前置仓数量超1000个，机构预估2025年GMV约265亿元。美团拿下叮咚超市，可以获得什么呢？来看看叮咚买菜的家底：梁昌霖带领叮咚买菜奋战8年，迄今引以为傲的是三大核心竞争力：极致的商品力、超预期的服务力和通过供应链系统打造的极致效率。<img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/news_bt/OQIObrfIwKpjcYIqHo4OU1YptHspXQ2Yt-OmGH5mCG3ooAA/0\"/>叮咚买菜85%以上生鲜源头直采，12家自营工厂、2家自营农场。“鲜活直达、高端食材、最快30分钟送达”是叮咚买菜塑造出的用户心智，它因此在最挑剔、购买力也最强的江浙沪市场积累了700多万月活用户。收购叮咚买菜，不仅补齐了小象超市在生鲜品控、商品开发与中高端用户心智上的不足，更重要的是极大加快了其生鲜即时零售的发展进程，在规模上弯道超车：前置仓从1000翻倍到2000+，GMV从600拉升到800+，共花了2个月和50亿。目前在前置仓生鲜电商领域，小象+叮咚是规模最大的玩家。即便是放眼整个生鲜电商领域，800亿+的GMV也算是佼佼者。这里不妨对比一下其它同行的速度与规模：2001年成立的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601933\">永辉超市</a>，其开业门店数在2025年Q3末达到450家；2025年预计营收在570-600 亿元，其中生鲜占比约40%，也就是约240亿元。2015年成立的盒马，2025年门店总数逼近900家。据阿里2025财年（2024.4-2025.3）年报，盒马该财年GMV达750亿元。2016年成立的朴朴超市，同样是“前置仓+ 30分钟即时配送”的即时零售，供应从生鲜到日用百货等生活所需，深耕华南市场，2024年营收约300亿元。此前，在前置仓生鲜赛道，小象超市、叮咚买菜、朴朴超市三足鼎立，三家分别以华北、华东和华南为基本盘。拿下叮咚后，美团等于在竞争最激烈的华东市场筑实了地位，完成了覆盖全国的关键一步。生鲜是即时零售中最难做的部分，美团选择了自营。同时，依托平台模式的美团闪购，2025年美团即时零售完成了场景、品类、人群、地域等全纬度的扩张。其中，美团闪电仓超5万，完成2800+县市区的覆盖；品类从快消、3C、家用电器到美妆、服饰、母婴等更丰富；供应升级，超百家品牌入驻了品牌官旗闪电仓，2025年服务用户超5亿，90后是核心用户群。据此前券商的沟通既要和媒体报道，2025 年美团即时零售全年GMV目标是4000 亿元，其中美团闪购3500亿元，小象超市500亿元。闪电仓是美团闪购的核心供应方式之一，2025年在美团即时零售全年GMV中约占25%。未来3年，美团闪电仓将继续狂奔，从目前的5万翻倍至10万家，年营收预计超2000亿元。这意味着，美团即时零售冲万亿GMV指日可待。收购叮咚，不只是美团的一次“防御性收购”，它意味着，美团打法变了，即时零售的打法也要变了。阿里投入加码，疯狂建仓据晚点报道，交易达成前，京东、阿里、美团都在叮咚买菜的潜在买家名单里。京东甚至已经完成了尽调和报价，就差最后签字。美团在最后时刻临门一脚，抢先拿下。外卖价格战不可持续，监管部门也明确禁止非理性的恶性价格竞争。美团、阿里、京东三家竞购叮咚买菜以及纷纷加码线下的动作说明：进入2026年，即时零售的战场开始从外卖价格战转向基础设施的竞赛。餐饮外卖可以是引流工具，前置仓生鲜也是引流工具。他们都是典型的“高频打低频”逻辑——用低价、高频的品类引流，带动平台其它品类的销售。生鲜一直被电商视为最后的堡垒，它不仅是万亿规模的赛道，且高频、刚需，是能带动全品类消费的流量型品类。“得生鲜者得天下”，就是生鲜价值的具象化。正因此，在过去十多年里，生鲜领域的创业与投资前仆后继，热潮不断。无论生鲜还是其它生活所需的商品，要满足消费者的即时需求，首先要在“即时”上下功夫，这取决于每个平台的配送效率以及货离消费者有多近。美团、阿里都在以“轻、重”并行的模式加码基础设施建设：轻资产模式下，搭建平台，吸引线下商超、便利店以及闪电仓商家入驻；重资产模式就是做重自营前置仓。按照阿里电商业务集团CEO蒋凡的规划，淘宝闪购（饿了么）是阿里餐饮类即时零售的主要载体，非餐饮类的即时零售分两种：近场原生模式和远近场结合。近场原生模式下，主要依托闪电仓，以及依托盒马大力发展生鲜品类的前置仓履约能力；依托天猫超市推进远近场结合。截至2025年底，阿里闪电仓已超5万家，其中25%的供给来自阿里生态的供应链。盒马前任CEO候毅曾公开表示前置仓是伪命题。2025年，盒马在信任CEO及集团战略的带领下，很快调转方向——重启前置仓。2025年，盒马前置仓已经快马加鞭落地了200家，正朝着300家的目标迈进。前置仓的定位是盒马鲜生（超市大店）的卫星仓，主要覆盖盒马鲜生大店周边3公里的服务盲区。盒马两大核心业态——盒马鲜生（超市大店）和超盒算NB（硬折扣社区店）门店也在快速扩充，从2024年底的600多家增至2025年底的900家。天猫超也在疯狂开设前置仓，这是其2026年的关键词之一。天猫超市是B2C远场电商，此前主营常温标品的全国次日达、半日达。为协同淘宝闪购，天猫超市重新分配了预算，押注前置仓，现阶段要将业务升级成4小时达的即时零售。目前，“天猫超市闪购”前置仓已在北京、上海等核心城市上线，通过“中心仓 + 闪购仓’模式实现4小时达，并逐步推向全国。据晚点报道，阿里核心管理层在2026年初的内部会议上鼓励团队要继续大胆做闪购，三年内不担心亏损；2026年即时零售的第一优先级是建仓。当然，这些基础设施投资也承载着阿里对即时零售的厚望：未来三年内，为平台带来1万亿的新增GMV。据市场普遍预计，2025年淘天GMV约为8.3万亿，在中国电商市场中占比31%，仍为第一。但在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、抖音、美团、京东等多方夹击下，淘天电商业务增速放缓，份额持续下滑难以避免。这样的局面下，3年1万亿新增GMV，对淘天来说是志在必得的蛋糕。对于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>集团来说，是值得豪赌的历史机遇，不能输的战役。这就不难理解阿里为什么宁愿亏3年也要做大淘宝闪购。第一入口之争，走向精细化从PC互联网到移动互联网再到AI时代，互联网公司始终对“入口”情有独钟，念念不忘。这也足以说明“入口”的重要性。在14亿人口的大国，万亿规模的即时零售市场，第一入口的重要性不言而喻。在2025年11月发布的Q3财报中，美团闪购自称是“消费者首选的即时零售平台”，可以说，这是美团对其在即时零售领域规模和用户心智第一的明确宣示。在外卖大战之前，美团、饿了么在餐饮外卖市场的占比长期稳定在7:3左右的比例。外卖价格战中，阿里用疯狂补贴夺回了部分份额。据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>的调研，截至2025年11月，美团在外卖市场的份额降至50%+，淘宝闪购升至42%。但王兴在美团Q3财报后的电话会上提到，在15元以上客单价订单中，美团份额大约是2/3；30元以上客单价订单中，美团份额仍达七成。美团即时零售对零售核心要素的排序是快&gt;多&gt;好&gt;省——“快”居首位；而“万能的淘宝”一直以来最显著的特征是“多”。即时零售的竞争目前主要在还在履约能力上。除了建更多仓，把货放在离消费者更近的地方，从配送系统优化升级，到配送队伍招募、骑手管理、运力线路规划等，竞争已经朝着精细化方向进展。美团拥有740万骑手，日均活跃骑手超500万，充足的运力加上多年打磨的即时配送系统，可以实时分析骑手位置、餐厅出餐速度、交通路况、天气情况等多种变量，动态规划最优路线，确保绝大多数骑手能在预估时间内准时送达。今年7月，美团披露即时零售订单达到1.5亿，全量配送订单平均送达时间为34分钟。2025年底，美团闪购推出“1对1急送”，目前已经覆盖全国近200城，用户平均支付3-4元，可比常规配送节省5-20分钟。淘宝闪购目前活跃骑手200万+；除了开出更高薪资和补贴招人，阿里为了在配送速度上对标美团，扩充了运力体系，同时推出多种加速服务。据晚点报道，淘宝闪购的蜂鸟运力体系已由过去的专送、优选、普众三类扩充至优远、蜂跑等近10条线路，稳定运力覆盖多数区域约80%订单量。“1V1配送”对标美团的“1对1急送”，平均可提速 8 – 20 分钟。相比美团，丰富的供应链生态和巨大的流量是阿里即时零售的独特优势。2025年宣布参与外卖大战后，阿里迅速在短时间内完成排兵布阵，用淘宝闪购（原饿了么）+盒马+天猫超市协同作战，分别在外卖、生鲜和日用百货品类与美团（美团外卖+小象&amp;叮咚+美团闪购）对垒。淘宝闪购在淘宝APP拥有一级入口，它不仅可以享受淘宝APP巨量流量倾斜，还直接嫁接了淘天20多年来积累的核心资产——中国最丰富的品牌商品库。截至2025年10月底，已有约3500个天猫品牌将线下门店接入淘宝闪购。这是从外卖投身零售的美团不具备的先天优势。不过，美团在一些市场规模大、增长快的垂类市场的深耕也是阿里目前欠缺的，比如医药和酒水即时零售。垂类市场也将成为双方下一步竞逐的焦点。据中康 CMH的报告，医药即时零售在2024年市场规模约达300亿元，同比增长35%；美团医药健康目前市场占比约77%。2022–2024年，美团医药健康复合增长率达38%。<img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/news_bt/OfGz9VCxVxZ9uwo37_pVhJc3VTWxAnVag1W8dhIEcsxGYAA/0\"/>图片来源：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02361\">中康</a> CMH相比之下，淘宝闪购（饿了么买药）规模要小的多。2024年底，饿了么买药的市场占比仅16%。酒水即时零售同样增长空间巨大。据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002736\">国信证券</a>研报，2024年酒类即时零售市场规模360亿元，预计2030年达到600-900亿元。美团的歪马送酒2021年6月正式上线，2025交易额突破60亿元，同比增长100%，服务近3000万用户；目前覆盖超200个城市2000多家门店。四年时间，其门店规模和年销售额在酒类即时零售中跻身TOP3。<img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/news_bt/OuKoE09Ru0zIneyG37EMFWE6OzSxBjDnzLNh-fQZWZ49QAA/0\"/>图源网络在酒水即时零售市场落后的阿里在加速追赶。阿里投资的酒类新零售连锁平台—1919 承担了淘宝闪购酒饮赛道前置仓的重要布局任务。2025年底，1919 宣布将把自身原有的约3000家各类实体店改造为中心店和补货仓，在餐饮场景中落地酒饮前置仓。2026年目标是落地10万+前置仓。淘宝闪购在2025年底还推出了自营垂类仓—“酒诗邦”，首仓已于去年底在宁波开业。它以仓为中心，以周边5公里为半径，提供啤酒、白酒、红酒、洋酒等全品类酒水零售，蜂鸟专送，30分钟达。有分析称，这标志着淘宝即时零售领域进入垂类化运营的新阶段。<img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/news_bt/OR8AvAWKQnk1oj0iUD2PzxG6wNzmptOMmr4Wokr0Q_2mIAA/0\"/>看到这些你可能已经发现了，巨头们排兵布阵、重构零售基础设施的场景似曾相似。从前些年的O2O、新零售到今天的即时零售，概念在变，零售的本质从来没变过：在合适的时间、合适的地点，以合适的价格，把合适的商品，卖给合适的人。今天的即时零售还处在PK谁更快的阶段，但很快会进入其它方面的竞争；因为消费者对零售“多快好省”的需求是永恒的。</article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里猛攻，美团巨亏：2026外卖大战怎么打？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n阿里猛攻，美团巨亏：2026外卖大战怎么打？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-14 13:51 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260214135509a6fa56c8&s=b>好看商业</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n即时零售的战场从价格战转向基础设施竞赛，竞争也变得精细化。作者｜周一围编辑｜安心美团或迎上市以来最大亏损。2月13日，美团公告称2025年预计录得约233亿元—243亿元的巨额亏损。这主要是由于其核心本地商业业务由盈转亏以及加大海外投入所致。这与2024年录得约358.08亿元溢利‌形成鲜明对比，等于在利润端出现近600亿元的剧烈反转。美团上一次巨亏是在2021年，当时美团豪赌社区团购等新业务，年...\n\n<a 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260214135509a6fa56c8&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2611838115","content_text":"即时零售的战场从价格战转向基础设施竞赛，竞争也变得精细化。作者｜周一围编辑｜安心美团或迎上市以来最大亏损。2月13日，美团公告称2025年预计录得约233亿元—243亿元的巨额亏损。这主要是由于其核心本地商业业务由盈转亏以及加大海外投入所致。这与2024年录得约358.08亿元溢利‌形成鲜明对比，等于在利润端出现近600亿元的剧烈反转。美团上一次巨亏是在2021年，当时美团豪赌社区团购等新业务，年亏235.36亿元。外卖大战另一边的阿里则不断加码。近期阿里核心管理层在内部会议上称：继续加大投入淘宝闪购，三年不惧亏损。这不是阿里第一次放话。1月初在在面向投资者的交流会上，阿里已经明确提出：2026年加大投入，直至即时零售市场绝对第一。美团与阿里，分别从生活服务电商和实物电商走进了即时零售的战场。王兴认为，零售的终局是“万物到家”，所以早在2021年，他就将美团的战略从“Food+Platform”升级为“零售+科技”。除了餐饮外卖，近年来美团在实物零售领域不断攻城略地。美团来袭，阿里、京东不会视而不见。去年开打的外卖大战，就是京东、阿里攻入美团腹地，反击美团、防御自家城池的举措。三方看起来把战场开在了外卖领域，背后真实的意图是争夺即时零售版图。相比阿里、京东的远场电商，即时零售是本地供给、即时履约，满足即时需求；这是一个新赛道，规模和增速可观。其次，即时零售目前是美团零售的主战场。阿里、京东一方面想吃到即时零售的增量蛋糕，另一方面，想遏制美团对其远场电商的蚕食。于是就有了三方参与的外卖价格战。为此，阿里、京东、美团在2025年Q2、Q3两季共烧掉1000多亿元。京东是外卖大战的发起者，在烧掉几百亿之后，也最早偃旗息鼓。阿里后来居上，越战越勇，补贴最为财大气粗。美团被动参战，代价惨重。可以说，外卖大战至今，每一家都是杀敌一千，自损八百，无人真正胜出。但外卖价格战还没有立刻停火的意思。2026年，淘宝闪购宁愿巨额亏损也要争夺即时零售第一名。美团作为即时零售市场的领先者，不想卷也要战，巨亏也要做第一。这局怎么破？美团“重仓”即时零售美团及王兴多次公开表达反对低价内卷。从财报数据看，美团在克制烧钱，亏损在收窄。2025年，核心本地商业经营亏损预计68-70亿；Q4亏损99.41-101.41亿元，低于Q3的140.71亿，也低于高盛/中金等预期的亏损110亿-115亿元。2026年，除了在外卖大战里继续熬，王兴选择主动出击——新年伊始斥资50亿收购叮咚买菜。王兴不轻易做收购。2018年香港上市至今，美团做过的收购屈指可数。外界能叫的出名号的，一个是花20亿元收购光年之外，另一个就是花50亿元收购叮咚买菜，前者落子AI，后者剑指即时零售。把时间线拉长了看，美团收购叮咚，不是一个孤立事件。过去几年，美团零售尝试过多种业态，包括：美团闪购、美团优选（社区团购）、小象超市、团好货等。美团优选2020年上线，营收最高时达千亿规模，是仅次于多多买菜的第二大玩家。2025年，美团优选全部关停，彻底退出社区团购市场。烧了数百亿做起来的业务，说关就关了，说明美团需要力出一孔，把资源和精力集中到更重要的事上：即时零售。经过几年摸索，美团逐渐将零售业务聚焦在即时零售，并将美团闪购和小象超市锁定为其通往即时零售购物平台的主要路径。美团闪购是平台模式，供应商包括线下实体零售店、闪电仓、零售品牌商等；小象超市是自营（前置仓）模式。美团从2019年开始做小象超市，截至2025年，小象超市前置仓约1000个，覆盖20个城市；据中信证券预估，2025年GMV超600亿元。叮咚买菜是华东地区前置仓生鲜电商龙头，是有史以来生鲜电商创业公司中为数不多的幸存者和持续盈利者。目前其前置仓数量超1000个，机构预估2025年GMV约265亿元。美团拿下叮咚超市，可以获得什么呢？来看看叮咚买菜的家底：梁昌霖带领叮咚买菜奋战8年，迄今引以为傲的是三大核心竞争力：极致的商品力、超预期的服务力和通过供应链系统打造的极致效率。叮咚买菜85%以上生鲜源头直采，12家自营工厂、2家自营农场。“鲜活直达、高端食材、最快30分钟送达”是叮咚买菜塑造出的用户心智，它因此在最挑剔、购买力也最强的江浙沪市场积累了700多万月活用户。收购叮咚买菜，不仅补齐了小象超市在生鲜品控、商品开发与中高端用户心智上的不足，更重要的是极大加快了其生鲜即时零售的发展进程，在规模上弯道超车：前置仓从1000翻倍到2000+，GMV从600拉升到800+，共花了2个月和50亿。目前在前置仓生鲜电商领域，小象+叮咚是规模最大的玩家。即便是放眼整个生鲜电商领域，800亿+的GMV也算是佼佼者。这里不妨对比一下其它同行的速度与规模：2001年成立的永辉超市，其开业门店数在2025年Q3末达到450家；2025年预计营收在570-600 亿元，其中生鲜占比约40%，也就是约240亿元。2015年成立的盒马，2025年门店总数逼近900家。据阿里2025财年（2024.4-2025.3）年报，盒马该财年GMV达750亿元。2016年成立的朴朴超市，同样是“前置仓+ 30分钟即时配送”的即时零售，供应从生鲜到日用百货等生活所需，深耕华南市场，2024年营收约300亿元。此前，在前置仓生鲜赛道，小象超市、叮咚买菜、朴朴超市三足鼎立，三家分别以华北、华东和华南为基本盘。拿下叮咚后，美团等于在竞争最激烈的华东市场筑实了地位，完成了覆盖全国的关键一步。生鲜是即时零售中最难做的部分，美团选择了自营。同时，依托平台模式的美团闪购，2025年美团即时零售完成了场景、品类、人群、地域等全纬度的扩张。其中，美团闪电仓超5万，完成2800+县市区的覆盖；品类从快消、3C、家用电器到美妆、服饰、母婴等更丰富；供应升级，超百家品牌入驻了品牌官旗闪电仓，2025年服务用户超5亿，90后是核心用户群。据此前券商的沟通既要和媒体报道，2025 年美团即时零售全年GMV目标是4000 亿元，其中美团闪购3500亿元，小象超市500亿元。闪电仓是美团闪购的核心供应方式之一，2025年在美团即时零售全年GMV中约占25%。未来3年，美团闪电仓将继续狂奔，从目前的5万翻倍至10万家，年营收预计超2000亿元。这意味着，美团即时零售冲万亿GMV指日可待。收购叮咚，不只是美团的一次“防御性收购”，它意味着，美团打法变了，即时零售的打法也要变了。阿里投入加码，疯狂建仓据晚点报道，交易达成前，京东、阿里、美团都在叮咚买菜的潜在买家名单里。京东甚至已经完成了尽调和报价，就差最后签字。美团在最后时刻临门一脚，抢先拿下。外卖价格战不可持续，监管部门也明确禁止非理性的恶性价格竞争。美团、阿里、京东三家竞购叮咚买菜以及纷纷加码线下的动作说明：进入2026年，即时零售的战场开始从外卖价格战转向基础设施的竞赛。餐饮外卖可以是引流工具，前置仓生鲜也是引流工具。他们都是典型的“高频打低频”逻辑——用低价、高频的品类引流，带动平台其它品类的销售。生鲜一直被电商视为最后的堡垒，它不仅是万亿规模的赛道，且高频、刚需，是能带动全品类消费的流量型品类。“得生鲜者得天下”，就是生鲜价值的具象化。正因此，在过去十多年里，生鲜领域的创业与投资前仆后继，热潮不断。无论生鲜还是其它生活所需的商品，要满足消费者的即时需求，首先要在“即时”上下功夫，这取决于每个平台的配送效率以及货离消费者有多近。美团、阿里都在以“轻、重”并行的模式加码基础设施建设：轻资产模式下，搭建平台，吸引线下商超、便利店以及闪电仓商家入驻；重资产模式就是做重自营前置仓。按照阿里电商业务集团CEO蒋凡的规划，淘宝闪购（饿了么）是阿里餐饮类即时零售的主要载体，非餐饮类的即时零售分两种：近场原生模式和远近场结合。近场原生模式下，主要依托闪电仓，以及依托盒马大力发展生鲜品类的前置仓履约能力；依托天猫超市推进远近场结合。截至2025年底，阿里闪电仓已超5万家，其中25%的供给来自阿里生态的供应链。盒马前任CEO候毅曾公开表示前置仓是伪命题。2025年，盒马在信任CEO及集团战略的带领下，很快调转方向——重启前置仓。2025年，盒马前置仓已经快马加鞭落地了200家，正朝着300家的目标迈进。前置仓的定位是盒马鲜生（超市大店）的卫星仓，主要覆盖盒马鲜生大店周边3公里的服务盲区。盒马两大核心业态——盒马鲜生（超市大店）和超盒算NB（硬折扣社区店）门店也在快速扩充，从2024年底的600多家增至2025年底的900家。天猫超也在疯狂开设前置仓，这是其2026年的关键词之一。天猫超市是B2C远场电商，此前主营常温标品的全国次日达、半日达。为协同淘宝闪购，天猫超市重新分配了预算，押注前置仓，现阶段要将业务升级成4小时达的即时零售。目前，“天猫超市闪购”前置仓已在北京、上海等核心城市上线，通过“中心仓 + 闪购仓’模式实现4小时达，并逐步推向全国。据晚点报道，阿里核心管理层在2026年初的内部会议上鼓励团队要继续大胆做闪购，三年内不担心亏损；2026年即时零售的第一优先级是建仓。当然，这些基础设施投资也承载着阿里对即时零售的厚望：未来三年内，为平台带来1万亿的新增GMV。据市场普遍预计，2025年淘天GMV约为8.3万亿，在中国电商市场中占比31%，仍为第一。但在拼多多、抖音、美团、京东等多方夹击下，淘天电商业务增速放缓，份额持续下滑难以避免。这样的局面下，3年1万亿新增GMV，对淘天来说是志在必得的蛋糕。对于阿里巴巴集团来说，是值得豪赌的历史机遇，不能输的战役。这就不难理解阿里为什么宁愿亏3年也要做大淘宝闪购。第一入口之争，走向精细化从PC互联网到移动互联网再到AI时代，互联网公司始终对“入口”情有独钟，念念不忘。这也足以说明“入口”的重要性。在14亿人口的大国，万亿规模的即时零售市场，第一入口的重要性不言而喻。在2025年11月发布的Q3财报中，美团闪购自称是“消费者首选的即时零售平台”，可以说，这是美团对其在即时零售领域规模和用户心智第一的明确宣示。在外卖大战之前，美团、饿了么在餐饮外卖市场的占比长期稳定在7:3左右的比例。外卖价格战中，阿里用疯狂补贴夺回了部分份额。据摩根大通的调研，截至2025年11月，美团在外卖市场的份额降至50%+，淘宝闪购升至42%。但王兴在美团Q3财报后的电话会上提到，在15元以上客单价订单中，美团份额大约是2/3；30元以上客单价订单中，美团份额仍达七成。美团即时零售对零售核心要素的排序是快>多>好>省——“快”居首位；而“万能的淘宝”一直以来最显著的特征是“多”。即时零售的竞争目前主要在还在履约能力上。除了建更多仓，把货放在离消费者更近的地方，从配送系统优化升级，到配送队伍招募、骑手管理、运力线路规划等，竞争已经朝着精细化方向进展。美团拥有740万骑手，日均活跃骑手超500万，充足的运力加上多年打磨的即时配送系统，可以实时分析骑手位置、餐厅出餐速度、交通路况、天气情况等多种变量，动态规划最优路线，确保绝大多数骑手能在预估时间内准时送达。今年7月，美团披露即时零售订单达到1.5亿，全量配送订单平均送达时间为34分钟。2025年底，美团闪购推出“1对1急送”，目前已经覆盖全国近200城，用户平均支付3-4元，可比常规配送节省5-20分钟。淘宝闪购目前活跃骑手200万+；除了开出更高薪资和补贴招人，阿里为了在配送速度上对标美团，扩充了运力体系，同时推出多种加速服务。据晚点报道，淘宝闪购的蜂鸟运力体系已由过去的专送、优选、普众三类扩充至优远、蜂跑等近10条线路，稳定运力覆盖多数区域约80%订单量。“1V1配送”对标美团的“1对1急送”，平均可提速 8 – 20 分钟。相比美团，丰富的供应链生态和巨大的流量是阿里即时零售的独特优势。2025年宣布参与外卖大战后，阿里迅速在短时间内完成排兵布阵，用淘宝闪购（原饿了么）+盒马+天猫超市协同作战，分别在外卖、生鲜和日用百货品类与美团（美团外卖+小象&叮咚+美团闪购）对垒。淘宝闪购在淘宝APP拥有一级入口，它不仅可以享受淘宝APP巨量流量倾斜，还直接嫁接了淘天20多年来积累的核心资产——中国最丰富的品牌商品库。截至2025年10月底，已有约3500个天猫品牌将线下门店接入淘宝闪购。这是从外卖投身零售的美团不具备的先天优势。不过，美团在一些市场规模大、增长快的垂类市场的深耕也是阿里目前欠缺的，比如医药和酒水即时零售。垂类市场也将成为双方下一步竞逐的焦点。据中康 CMH的报告，医药即时零售在2024年市场规模约达300亿元，同比增长35%；美团医药健康目前市场占比约77%。2022–2024年，美团医药健康复合增长率达38%。图片来源：中康 CMH相比之下，淘宝闪购（饿了么买药）规模要小的多。2024年底，饿了么买药的市场占比仅16%。酒水即时零售同样增长空间巨大。据国信证券研报，2024年酒类即时零售市场规模360亿元，预计2030年达到600-900亿元。美团的歪马送酒2021年6月正式上线，2025交易额突破60亿元，同比增长100%，服务近3000万用户；目前覆盖超200个城市2000多家门店。四年时间，其门店规模和年销售额在酒类即时零售中跻身TOP3。图源网络在酒水即时零售市场落后的阿里在加速追赶。阿里投资的酒类新零售连锁平台—1919 承担了淘宝闪购酒饮赛道前置仓的重要布局任务。2025年底，1919 宣布将把自身原有的约3000家各类实体店改造为中心店和补货仓，在餐饮场景中落地酒饮前置仓。2026年目标是落地10万+前置仓。淘宝闪购在2025年底还推出了自营垂类仓—“酒诗邦”，首仓已于去年底在宁波开业。它以仓为中心，以周边5公里为半径，提供啤酒、白酒、红酒、洋酒等全品类酒水零售，蜂鸟专送，30分钟达。有分析称，这标志着淘宝即时零售领域进入垂类化运营的新阶段。看到这些你可能已经发现了，巨头们排兵布阵、重构零售基础设施的场景似曾相似。从前些年的O2O、新零售到今天的即时零售，概念在变，零售的本质从来没变过：在合适的时间、合适的地点，以合适的价格，把合适的商品，卖给合适的人。今天的即时零售还处在PK谁更快的阶段，但很快会进入其它方面的竞争；因为消费者对零售“多快好省”的需求是永恒的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"89988":0.6,"BABA":1.95,"MPNGY":1.98,"HBBD.SI":0.6,"ALBmain":0.6,"09988":1.95,"03690":1.98,"METmain":0.6,"HMTD.SI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}