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股神吧吧
02-18

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

摩根大通交易台：“先卖再问”的美股AI抛售潮即将结束，抄底软件股的时候到了

该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的软件股、对“AI干扰免疫”的资产来把握即将到来的反弹机会。

摩根大通交易台：“先卖再问”的美股AI抛售潮即将结束，抄底软件股的时候到了

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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11:56","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"摩根大通交易台：“先卖再问”的美股AI抛售潮即将结束，抄底软件股的时候到了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612490333","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的软件股、对“AI干扰免疫”的资产来把握即将到来的反弹机会。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的软件股、对“AI干扰免疫”的资产来把握即将到来的反弹机会。</p></blockquote><p><strong>近几周，美股市场的核心交易逻辑已被简化为一个令人窒息的叙事——“AI替代风险”</strong>。这种对“被AI淘汰”的极度恐惧，引发了金融和工业板块的剧烈动荡，并导致资金疯狂涌入半导体，同时对软件进行无差别的“先卖再问”。</p><p>不过，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>交易台在2月17日的最新报告中认为，这种极端的情绪宣泄已接近尾声，该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的软件股、对“AI干扰免疫”的资产来把握即将到来的反弹机会：</p><blockquote><p><strong>“尽管短期市场格局未变，但“AI替代论”的叙事已接近尾声，这意味着大型科技股的抄底窗口已经打开。”</strong></p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2557351036\">市场在多个行业反应过度</h2><p>摩根大通仓位情报团队观察到，当前美股市场上，半导体板块的仓位拥挤度高达+4倍标准差（+4z），而软件板块则深陷-3.5倍标准差（-3.5z）的低谷，<strong>两行业的仓位差异已达到历史极值。</strong></p><p>年初至今，做多半导体做空软件的回报率已高达约34.9%。这种撕裂源于投资者的一种线性思维：AI算力是唯一的赢家，而传统软件将被彻底颠覆。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4a850623af6baec9a682d63b216341ed\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"588\"/></p><p>而在最新的报告中，摩根大通各行业分析师对这场AI抛售潮进行了深度拆解，结论显示市场在多个领域存在明显的反应过度：</p><p><strong>1. 软件行业：难以证伪的“负面逻辑”</strong></p><p>分析师Mark Murphy指出，当前的困境在于软件公司很难“自证清白”——即证明AI在未来几年不会颠覆它们。尽管行业增长因宏观经济放缓而减速，但考虑到估值已大幅回撤，建议投资者采取“哑铃策略”：一方面配置具有强劲自由现金流（FCF）支撑的顶级软件公司，另一方面规避估值过高的标的。</p><p><strong>2. 财富管理与生命科学：利润扩张 vs. 近期风险</strong></p><p>上周大型银行股（JP2LBK指数）下跌6%，并购经纪商更是大跌7%。然而，基本面反馈却截然相反：贷款增长良好，并购和IPO管道强劲。分析师Rob O’Dwyer认为，市场低估了“人际关系”在理财中的价值。事实上，对于财富管理机构而言，AI更可能是提升利润率的工具，而非取代客户关系的杀手。</p><p>来到生命科学工具领域，这是目前风险较为明确的领域。CRO企业（如MEDP）已承认，制药客户内部利用AI提升生产力，可能会减少对外包服务的需求。这可能是少数几个AI负面逻辑成立的板块之一。</p><p><strong>3. 物流运输：AI“去中介化”的恐慌</strong></p><p>物流板块是近期AI恐慌的重灾区。因竞争对手Algorhythm Holdings宣布其AI平台SemiCab能大幅提升货运调度效率（一名操作员可管理2000笔订单，是传统经纪人的4倍），导致美国货运巨头CHRW股价暴跌25%，并拖累DSV、DHL等全球同行下跌约10%。</p><p>摩根大通分析师Alexia Dogani对此持怀疑态度。她指出，货运代理涉及复杂的物理基础设施整合，目前的数字化程度极低。AI虽然能提升效率，但短期内无法跨越物理障碍实现完全的“去中介化”。</p><p><strong>4.日本市场：AI短期不会取代外包</strong></p><p>同样的逻辑也适用于日本IT服务市场。</p><p>分析师Matthew Henderson指出，日本大型企业极度依赖系统集成商（SIers），且面临严重的人才短缺。在这种结构性僵局下，AI非但不会取代外包，反而会成为缓解人才短缺、提升SIers利润率的利器。</p><h2 id=\"id_1804608161\">抄底软件股？</h2><p>摩根大通交易团队在报告中写道，尽管短期市场格局未变，但“AI替代论”的叙事已接近尾声，这意味着大型科技股的抄底窗口已经打开。该团队具体建议的交易策略如下：</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>核心主题：</strong>继续看好AI/TMT、全球增长重启、国际市场机遇以及美元贬值交易。</p></li><li><p><strong>对冲风险</strong>：建议做多原油和能源股以对冲地缘政治风险；购买波动性（Vol）；做空动量因子（Momentum）。</p></li><li><p><strong>自身操作</strong>：交易台正在执行多头策略，<strong>做多一篮子“被严重错误定价且对AI干扰具有免疫力”的股票</strong></p></li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/abafdc67faf73109fc899ffe7dbe341d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"518\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n摩根大通交易台：“先卖再问”的美股AI抛售潮即将结束，抄底软件股的时候到了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-18 11:56 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765829><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的软件股、对“AI干扰免疫”的资产来把握即将到来的反弹机会。近几周，美股市场的核心交易逻辑已被简化为一个令人窒息的叙事——“AI替代风险”。这种对“被AI淘汰”的极度恐惧，引发了金融和工业板块的剧烈动荡，并导致资金疯狂涌入半导体，同时对软件进行无差别的“先卖再问”。不过，摩根大通交易台在2月17日的最新报告中认为，这种极端的情绪宣泄已接近尾声，该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765829\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{"LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","IE000M9KFDE8.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LARGE CAP VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","WDAY":"Workday","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" 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