2026 W10：伊朗冲击波重定价全球利率，野村说存储疯狂

60秒
03-08 17:37

本周 TOP 10 IB Insight

3月3日 – 3月8日

本周一个字：炸。

伊朗战争全面升级，霍尔木兹海峡实质性封锁，原油从年初 $60 飙到 $90——巴克莱直言债券作为避险资产失灵了，美银警告欧央行可能从降息掉头转向加息，德银做出极端情景推演：若能源再涨 50%，欧元区通胀多 1 个百分点、GDP 少 0.7 个百分点。

与此同时，美国非农意外录得 -9.2 万，滞胀正从纸面走向现实。

科技侧同样火热：汇丰判定存储超级周期才走到中场，野村发现买方在主动加价抢货签长约，高盛首次量化 AI 将贡献标普 40% 的盈利增长。

十大洞察，看谁押对了方向。

📊 #1 · 宏观·利率 ｜ Macro · Interest Rates

债券避险功能失灵：伊朗战争将冲击导向通胀+财政赤字而非增长放缓，美债收益率逆势飙升 15-20bp，欧股暴跌近 7%

"Bonds failed as safe havens this week as the Iran war skews the shock more toward inflation and wider budget deficits than slower growth in the US… Such an escalation will ultimately lead to higher defense spending, leading to more fiscal risk premium"

Barclays 巴克莱 · United States: Interest Rates, Tough luck · 2026-03-06

📊 #2 · 宏观·滞胀 ｜ Macro · Stagflation

美国非农意外减少 9.2 万（2020 年来第二次负值）叠加油价飙至 $85+，滞胀风险从纸面走向现实

"U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February on a seasonally adjusted basis — the second monthly decline since 2020 — versus expectations for a 59,000 increase… Escalating Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher, intensified market fears of stagflation"

Huatai Futures 华泰期货 · Precious Metal Weekly report: Energy, payrolls stoke US stagflation fears · 2026-03-08

📊 #3 · 宏观·央行政策 ｜ Macro · Central Bank

美银警告：如果能源价格 6 月前不回落，欧央行可能从降息转向加息——市场已定价年内加息 30bp

"If energy prices do not normalise by June, the ECB may well hike rates… Markets are now pricing in the ECB to hike by 30bp before year end while the BOE is priced to stay put (versus an expectation of 50bp cuts last week)"

BofA Securities 美银 · Global Rates Weekly: Gassing up rates · 2026-03-06

🌍 #4 · 地缘·能源 ｜ Geopolitics · Energy

德银情景分析：若能源价格再涨 50%，欧元区通胀将高出 1 个百分点、GDP 损失 0.7pp——ECB 被迫在滞胀中抉择

"Under Scenario 2, inflation would be 1pp and 0.4pp higher — implying a more persistent inflation overshoot — despite GDP growth being 0.7pp and 0.1pp lower… The ECB will be assessing the risk of non-linear inflation dynamics (e.g., higher frequency price resets like 2022)"

Deutsche Bank 德银 · Focus Europe: Iran Shock: A macro impact scenario analysis · 2026-03-06

🔬 #5 · 科技前沿·半导体 ｜ Tech Frontier · Semiconductor

HSBC 判定存储行业正处于类似 1990-95 年的超级周期中段，NAND 因推理上下文存储（ICMS）成为下一个 AI 催化剂

"We think the memory market is at a midpoint similar to the 1990-95 supercycle, when office automation led to a DRAM shortage for six years… AI focus is shifting to memory (HBM, SO-CAMM2, ICMS) from GPU"

HSBC 汇丰 · SK Hynix (000660 KP) Buy: AI inferencing drives further price hikes and boosts earnings · 2026-03-06

🔬 #6 · 科技前沿·半导体 ｜ Tech Frontier · Semiconductor

买方主动加价抢货、签 3 年以上长约——存储行业定价权结构性反转，估值逻辑可能向晶圆代工看齐

"Buyers' willingness determining pricing as they are willing to secure memory supply at higher prices… We believe memory players' valuation multiples could approach foundry players' levels as such business models get widespread"

Nomura 野村 · Global memory: Strong memory prices continue; LTAs to help sustainability · 2026-03-06

🔬 #7 · 科技前沿·AI ｜ Tech Frontier · AI

高盛首次量化：AI 投资与云服务将贡献 2026 年标普 500 约 40% 的盈利增长，但 2027 年将因折旧回落至 25%

"AI investments and AI cloud services accounted for roughly 25% of S&P 500 EPS growth in 2025 and will account for roughly 40% of growth in 2026… The likely deceleration in AI capex growth in 2027, combined with continued accumulation of depreciation expense, suggests roughly 25% in 2027"

Goldman Sachs 高盛 · US WEEKLY KICKSTART: The impacts of oil and AI on S&P 500 earnings · 2026-03-06

🔬 #8 · 科技前沿·封装 ｜ Tech Frontier · Packaging

JEDEC 正讨论将下一代 HBM 封装高度从 775µm 放宽至 825-900µm，TCB 生命周期延长，混合键合推迟

"A new package height standard of 825-900µm would push out HB adoption and extend TCB usage – preferred by memory makers given TCB's lower total cost and technology maturity"

Citi 花旗 · ASMPT (0522.HK) Potential HBM Height Increase Positive for TCB Demand · 2026-03-06

🔬 #9 · 科技前沿·AI测试 ｜ Tech Frontier · AI Testing

Chroma ATE 营收同比暴增 87%，AI 测试需求从芯片向功率、光学、量测、SLT 全产业链扩散

"Chroma reported Jan + Feb sales of NT$7.5B (+87% YoY in US$ terms)… We expect the strong sales are driven by AI testers across power, photonics, metrology and SLT"

Bernstein 盛博 · Asia Tech Hardware: TW suppliers monthly sales - Chroma ATE and Unimicron 1Q26 revenue tracking ahead · 2026-03-06

🇨🇳 #10 · 中国资产·看多 ｜ China Assets · Bullish

比亚迪刀片电池 2.0 实现 9 分钟满电 + 2 万充电桩年底覆盖全国，EV 最后采用瓶颈被攻破

"Vehicles equipped with Blade Battery 2.0 can achieve a full charge in 9min (or 12min at -30°C)… The accelerated expansion of the flash charging network might optimise user experience and boost volume growth"

HSBC 汇丰 · BYD (002594) AH: Buy/Buy: Tech lead, portfolio refresh, volume and mix uplift · 2026-03-06

以上就是本周的 TOP 10 投行洞察。

伊朗战争、滞胀信号、存储超级周期——本周三条主线将在未来数周持续重定价全球资产。

口罩哥的星球独家汇总

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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