美银你妈也是没的._老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

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亿千
03-24

美银你妈也是没的.

市场对AI投资“用脚投票”？美银：腾讯很稳健，耐心是美德

腾讯宣布2026年AI投资翻倍至360亿元以上，短期盈利承压引发股价5天下跌8%。美银表示“耐心是一种美德”，并认为腾讯AI重估路径清晰：未来6-18个月，混元3.0、云收入加速及微信智能体的推出将是关键。该行认为，腾讯在2026至2027年的资本支出强度仍将远低于其运营现金流的50%。

市场对AI投资“用脚投票”？美银：腾讯很稳健，耐心是美德

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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你妈也是没的.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/546201985417328","repostId":2621058353,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2621058353","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1774327839,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2621058353?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-24 12:50","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"市场对AI投资“用脚投票”？美银：腾讯很稳健，耐心是美德","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2621058353","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"腾讯宣布2026年AI投资翻倍至360亿元以上，短期盈利承压引发股价5天下跌8%。美银表示“耐心是一种美德”，并认为腾讯AI重估路径清晰：未来6-18个月，混元3.0、云收入加速及微信智能体的推出将是关键。该行认为，腾讯在2026至2027年的资本支出强度仍将远低于其运营现金流的50%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>腾讯宣布2026年AI投资翻倍至360亿元以上，短期盈利承压引发股价5天下跌8%。美银表示“耐心是一种美德”，并认为腾讯AI重估路径清晰：未来6-18个月，混元3.0、云收入加速及微信智能体的推出将是关键。该行认为，腾讯在2026至2027年的资本支出强度仍将远低于其运营现金流的50%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">腾讯宣布大幅增加AI投资，引发市场对短期盈利的担忧，但美银美林认为，这是腾讯AI重估的必经之路，耐心将带来回报。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">日前腾讯在最新的财报电话会上宣布，计划2026年将混元及新AI产品投资至少翻倍。这一从减少回购转向增加AI投资的表态迅速引发市场波动，腾讯股价盘中下挫，过去五天公司股价已累计跌超8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，据追风交易台消息，美银美林在最新发布的研报中重申了对腾讯的“买入”评级，<strong>并强调“耐心是一种美德”。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d75bca4f27427a0616899c7b00c1280\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"580\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_995312811\" style=\"text-align: left;\">AI重估路径清晰：模型、云、智能体</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美银美林指出，腾讯的AI重估路径已经非常清晰。在接下来的6个月内，混元3.0（HY3.0）的推出和更多大语言模型（LLM）的升级将是关键里程碑。随后在6至12个月内，资本支出和云收入的加速增长将进一步验证其AI战略的有效性。<strong>而在9至18个月内，微信智能体（Weixin Agent）的推出将成为重头戏。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美银美林认为，<strong>AI竞争的下一阶段正在从“谁拥有/开发最好的模型”转向“谁能设计出最好的AI驱动产品”。</strong>在这一转变中，决定AI智能体胜负的关键不再仅仅是原始模型的复杂程度，而是服务的广度、内容的深度以及对用户上下文的有效利用。美银美林强调：<strong>“我们认为腾讯在这一转型中处于特别有利的地位。”</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1756971803\" style=\"text-align: left;\">AI投资激增：短期利润承压，长期前景可期</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">腾讯在AI领域的资金投入正在大幅增加。根据公司指引，<strong>2026年利润表中的AI投资将从2025年的180亿元人民币增加到360亿元人民币以上。</strong>美银美林指出，这还不包括资本支出或与外部云相关的支出。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这种投资的增加预计将使2026年非GAAP营业利润率下降低个位数，但美银美林认为这“看起来是可控的”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">为了反映AI投资的增加，美银美林将腾讯2026年和2027年的非IFRS净利润预期分别下调了4%和3%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56f076320c4fc4beb2cd33ed166893d4\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"577\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3808287859\" style=\"text-align: left;\">资本支出加速：算力资源向核心AI产品倾斜</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在资本支出方面，美银预计腾讯未来的增长将加速，且2026年的增长可能会集中在下半年<strong>。预计2026年的资本支出将从2025年的792亿元人民币增加到950亿元人民币，2027年将进一步达到1200亿元人民币。尽管如此，腾讯在2026至2027年的资本支出强度仍将远低于其运营现金流的50%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，报告提到，近期中国iOS收入分成比例的降低（未来可能进一步降低）应该能为AI支出提供一些缓冲，带来低个位数的利润率收益。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在与最接近的同行阿里巴巴进行比较时，报告指出，腾讯的AI投资与阿里巴巴的“所有其他亏损”非常相似，后者的年化运行率也达到了400亿元人民币。然而，美银美林强调，腾讯在2025年的营业利润率和运营现金流明显高于阿里巴巴。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dc866c1be42010606bc98df9075a912\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"301\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> </p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3768229><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>腾讯宣布2026年AI投资翻倍至360亿元以上，短期盈利承压引发股价5天下跌8%。美银表示“耐心是一种美德”，并认为腾讯AI重估路径清晰：未来6-18个月，混元3.0、云收入加速及微信智能体的推出将是关键。该行认为，腾讯在2026至2027年的资本支出强度仍将远低于其运营现金流的50%。腾讯宣布大幅增加AI投资，引发市场对短期盈利的担忧，但美银美林认为，这是腾讯AI重估的必经之路，耐心将带来回报。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3768229\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{"LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0651946864.USD":"贝莱德新兴市场股票收益A2","LU1051768304.USD":"贝莱德新兴市场股票收益A6","SG9999014674.SGD":"Nikko AM All China Equity A SGD","SG9999002463.SGD":"LionGlobal China Growth SGD","IE0008368742.USD":"首域中国增长基金I Acc","LU0540923850.HKD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0049112450.USD":"FIDELITY PACIFIC \"A\" INC","LU1515016050.SGD":"Blackrock Emerging Markets Equity 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