归根结底还是科技引领_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

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函盖乾坤截断众流随波逐浪
04-03 21:01

归根结底还是科技引领和科技跟随的差别，引领者掌握定价权，而跟随着丧失定价权。

这个财报季，财报成了最没用的东西

但这个财报季，它反倒制造了更多的困惑。不止这两家公司，在财报发布后，大量大厂的股价走势和业绩完全偏离。但在这个财报季，股东的价值似乎不是靠他的努力能实现的。但在财报发布后，泡泡玛特两个交易日下跌了近30%。在连续两个季度很一般的财报后，终于，在2025年第二季度，拼多多的收入和利润均超出市场预期，交出了一份漂亮的财报。

这个财报季，财报成了最没用的东西

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src=\"https://img.jiemian.com/101/original/hainatemp/20260327/177460630031331600.png\" width=\"666\"/></p><p>图注：腾讯财报发布后，股价一路走低。</p><p>腾讯的财报有什么瑕疵呢？硬要找也是找得到的。</p><p>其中最大的瑕疵无疑是资本开支：在业绩会上，腾讯宣布将重投AI。管理层透露：今年在AI新产品上，腾讯的投入金额至少翻倍。地主家也没有余粮，腾讯的钱也不是无限的，所以Martin表示：“如果腾讯有足够的资源去支持AI发展的话，资本开销能达到公司预期，可能会适当减少回购。”</p><p>过去三年，市场经常质疑腾讯对AI过于保守，投入不足，创新缓慢。眼下，腾讯加大了投入，却又迎来股价下滑。</p><p>如果腾讯这只股票自己会说话，它一定很无语：不搞AI，市场觉得你保守，搞AI，市场嫌你乱花钱。但投入AI怎么可能不花钱？</p><p>快手也许也有相同的感觉。</p><p>它的财报不算完美，但还是超出了市场的预期，收入增速达到了12.5%，净利润同比增长16.5%，均创下新高。</p><p>AI概念，快手也不缺。程一笑透露：截至今年1月，可灵AI的年化收入运行率（ARR）已超过3亿美元。公司对可灵AI在2026年实现收入同比翻倍以上增长保持较强信心。</p><p>但第二个交易日，快手股价直接暴跌约14%。</p><p>如果一定要找点问题出来，它的直播收入出现下滑，用户数增长见顶，且日后不再公布GMV。但这是2026年，直播行业整体早就衰退了，互联网用户早就见顶了，电商行业早就集体隐藏GMV了。</p><p>这些理由，对14%的大跌来说足够充分吗？</p><p>更大的理由或许不在财报，而在业绩会，管理层透露：2026年计划投入260亿元资本开支用于AI算力建设。</p><p>腾讯和拼多多这样的大厂，因为对AI的投入相对保守，在很长时间里受到质疑。但当大厂真正投入AI后，市场又担心他们的现金流。</p><p>市场似乎在给大厂一道无解题：必须全力搞AI，但又不能大量花钱。</p><p>02 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>：符合预期，暴跌30%</p><p>一个极其正常的财报，却能带来接近30%的暴跌，即便在这个“乱跌”的财报季，也是一种奇观。</p><p>如果一定要为泡泡玛特的暴跌找个理由的话，答案可能不是空头，而是极端的多头。</p><p>从今年年初开始，全世界就有非常多的钱涌入做空泡泡玛特。人们认为这是一个郁金香的存在，会很快过气。</p><p>做空资金最多的时候，占成交的比例接近40%，多个海外机构连续发布做空报告，比如伯恩斯坦分析师认为这家企业全靠LABUBU一个IP，别的IP都是“借光”，消费者看LABUBU没货了，才会退而求其次购买。</p><p>有机构认为，这家公司的业绩高点就在2025年Q3，2026年甚至可能会出现同比下滑。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.jiemian.com/101/original/hainatemp/20260327/177460630029160700.jpg\" width=\"1080\"/></p><p>图注：2026年泡泡玛特，最不缺的就是空头。</p><p>他们的做空成功了吗？很长时间都是失败的。泡泡玛特股价在今年一度超过250港币，很多空头亏的血本无归。</p><p>但空头处心积虑，有时候不如多头太高的预期。</p><p>3月25日发布的财报显示，泡泡玛特的收入为371.2亿人民币，调整后净利润大约为130亿人民币。</p><p>这个业绩非常中规中矩，超过10家券商的预期本来就在这个数字范围内，不算好也不坏。</p><p>但在财报发布后，泡泡玛特两个交易日下跌了近30%。</p><p>真正的杀手，可能不是空头，而是多头：比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>，他们预测泡泡玛特的净利润达到140亿人民币。看似只多了几亿元，但泡泡玛特前三季度业绩都已发布，10亿的偏差其实全“挤”在四季度，是非常大的高估。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>的净利润预计倒还好，但目标价给到了惊人的384.5港元。至于普通投资者中，拥有着不切实际的高估者，更是数不胜数。</p><p>低预期没有搞崩泡泡玛特，高预期却做到了，在这些看多的资金眼中，这是一份不合格的财报。</p><p>3月25日当天，摩根大通卖出了173万股泡泡玛特，摩根士丹利卖出了133万股，构成了当日下跌的巨大推手。</p><p>——吹的时候最厉害，跑得最快。这让人想起饭圈所说的：“极端的粉丝是最大的黑子。”</p><p>业绩会上，王宁又为下跌“加了把火”。他对未来业绩指引的回答充满严谨：努力做到不低于20%的增长。</p><p>这是王宁一贯的风格，他对未来的业绩指引向来保守，2024年时，他的指引还是同比增长50%，但第二年，泡泡玛特完成了这个目标两倍的成绩。</p><p>这种对市场预期的管理，也是泡泡玛特屡屡超出预期的关键。</p><p>但讲话要看语境，在这个恐慌的市场背景下，这句话起到了相反的作用：泡泡玛特的跌幅扩大，从10%逼近20%。</p><p>相比于财报发布前的高点，泡泡玛特的市值已经接近腰斩，尽管泡泡玛特没什么变化——几个月前大量机构就已经预计它的利润就是这些，它的护城河、战略方向也都没有变化，但它的市值还是少了快一半。</p><p>03 拼多多和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>：预期管理比财报还重要？</p><p>相比之下，拼多多的“预期管理”能力显得更强一些。</p><p>泡泡玛特的业绩会上，多位管理层穿着西服打着领带，非常正式。而拼多多的业绩会只有音频，并且高管的话筒还“炸麦”了。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.jiemian.com/101/original/hainatemp/20260327/177460630032657200.png\" width=\"805\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img.jiemian.com/101/original/hainatemp/20260327/177460630021815800.png\" width=\"1027\"/></p><p>管理层的一大段发言后，听众似乎只能听见电流声，以及隐约的三个字：“拼多多”，似乎在说这个麦克是从拼多多买的。</p><p>但对拼多多股东来说，管理层的麦炸了也许是个“利好”。</p><p>因为过去几个季度，这家公司的管理层的发言一直比较“利空”：拼多多在2024年8月份的二季度业绩会堪称中国互联网财报季的里程碑，高管在业绩会上明确表示拼多多未来几年不会分红。</p><p>这一发言让拼多多股价一度大跌28%。</p><p>此后，拼多多的策略开始调整，牺牲短期利润的同时，将大量真金白银补贴给消费者和商家，营销费用越来越高，货币化率越来越低，最终利润一路走低。</p><p>在连续两个季度很一般的财报后，终于，在2025年第二季度，拼多多的收入和利润均超出市场预期，交出了一份漂亮的财报。股价在盘前一度上涨。</p><p>但管理层在业绩会上再次表示：不认为该季度的利润可以持续。这一句话，让拼多多盘前上涨的股价转跌。</p><p>对拼多多的股东来说，管理层不说话就是利好。但这事也有两面性：最有杀伤力的不是甜言蜜语，而是预期管理。</p><p>一个人如果每天都骂你，有一天不骂，你就会非常感恩。这就是拼多多这份财报的背景：大家的预期都很低。于是，当拼多多净利润只下滑了11%时，市场并不悲观，反倒是为经营利润8%的增长感到欣喜。</p><p>管理层在业绩会的发言也显得十分和蔼，比如在被问道海外风险时，管理层回答道：</p><p>当前的监管整治为我们进入下一个阶段的成长奠定了好的基础，同时也会为我们在这种快速变化的国际政治政策环境下的这种模式迭代指明方向。</p><p>看似套路化，但也许只有当过拼多多的股东，才明白这种发言背后的“温柔”。</p><p>要挑刺，拼多多财报也有很多瑕疵：腾讯和快手对AI大幅度投入，拼多多也有一个超过百亿的重资产项目：新拼姆。看名字就知道，这是一个类似山姆或者Costco的自营零售生意。</p><p>拼多多的确没有AI基础设施的大量建设，但这种自营的零售商非常消耗现金，利润率也不如拼多多APP的平台模式。</p><p>快手存在用户增长的放缓，但拼多多的广告营销收入增速同样放缓。交易型收入大涨背后，是海外业务、买菜等利润率偏低的业务占比提升。</p><p>或许市场对拼多多的期望更少？</p><p>市场期望更少的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团</a>，早在2月13日，美团就发布了盈利预警，盈利数据基本是明牌。既然基本明牌，那就没什么利好和利空。在这个大家集体暴跌的财报季，美团上涨了10%左右，财报发布后股价基本保持稳定——大家都暴跌，不跌就算涨了。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.jiemian.com/101/original/hainatemp/20260327/177460630032374400.png\" width=\"735\"/></p><p>最终，业绩向好的腾讯、快手发布财报后大跌，利润不增长的拼多多和美团却能表现坚挺，实在是不符合常规的逻辑。</p><p>而如果一定要为这个财报季找一个主线逻辑的话，最合适的答案可能是：没有逻辑。毕竟在这个冲突不断，AI的威胁带来人心惶惶的时期，情绪的力量似乎比逻辑更强大。 </p></body></html>","source":"lanjinger_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>这个财报季，财报成了最没用的东西</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n这个财报季，财报成了最没用的东西\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-03 14:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.lanjinger.com/d/1774607330672315522><strong>蓝鲸财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者|略大参考 杨知潮财报和业绩会的作用是与公众沟通，向公众解惑。但这个财报季，它反倒制造了更多的困惑。腾讯业绩非常优秀，为何股价大跌10%？拼多多业绩只能算中规中矩，凭什么就能一度大涨10%？不止这两家公司，在财报发布后，大量大厂的股价走势和业绩完全偏离。财报季，顾名思义是看财报的，但这个财报季，市场似乎压根不看财报。01 腾讯和快手：不搞AI嫌没有前景，搞AI嫌费钱腾讯很可能是国内最看重股东...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.lanjinger.com/d/1774607330672315522\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"81024":"快手-WR","LU0880133367.SGD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND CHINA OPPORTUNITY USD \"P\" (SGD) ACC","LU0572939691.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A2 SGD","LU0417516902.SGD":"Allianz China Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU1804176565.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999013353.USD":"SCHRODER ASIAN INCOME FUND\"A\" (USDHDG) INC","LU1102505929.USD":"FIDELITY SUSTAINABLE EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BQXX3D17.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) ACC","BK4526":"热门中概股","IE00BQXX3C00.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (GBP) ACC","IE0008368411.USD":"FSSA ASIAN GROWTH \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00B031HW06.USD":"FSSA ASIAN GROWTH \"I\" (USD) INC","IE00BQXX3F31.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (USD) ACC","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" 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