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影枫16
05-08 16:42

警醒自己

美股一个危险信号：金融板块年内跌6%，大盘却在创新高

标普500连创历史新高之际，金融板块却逆势累跌6%，XLF跌破200日均线且相对大盘表现创1998年以来历史最低——弱于金融危机和新冠冲击期间。历史数据显示，类似背离后一个月内标普500下跌概率高达90%。

美股一个危险信号：金融板块年内跌6%，大盘却在创新高

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>等大型银行在4月均公布了强劲的季度业绩，金融板块的颓势依然未能扭转。</p><h2 id=\"id_1618210792\">技术面背离：XLF跌破200日均线</h2><p>Scott Brown指出，金融板块的技术面信号尤为值得警惕。追踪金融板块的State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF（XLF）不仅在标普500创新高期间持续下跌，还始终运行于200日移动均线之下——后者被广泛视为判断长期趋势的重要参考。</p><p>历史数据显示，在此前32次标普500创新高而XLF同时位于200日均线以下的情形中，<strong>一个月后标普500有29次出现下跌，平均跌幅达3.3%。</strong>六个月后，标普500有18次下跌、14次上涨；一年后虽有17次上涨、15次下跌，平均涨幅4.6%，但下跌区间最大跌幅高达41.5%，显示下行风险不对称地偏大。</p><p>此外，在标普500全部11个SPDR行业ETF中，XLF是目前唯一一个价格与50日均线均低于200日均线的板块，这意味着金融板块在短期和长期趋势上均处于弱势。</p><p>从相对表现来看，情况同样不容乐观。据FactSet及MarketWatch数据，自XLF于1998年12月22日成立以来，该ETF相对于标普500的表现已跌至历史最低水平。</p><p>这意味着，金融板块当前相对于大盘的弱势程度，已超过新冠疫情冲击期间和2008年金融危机期间，更远差于2000年互联网泡沫破裂之初的水平。这一极端的相对弱势令部分分析人士感到不安。</p><h2 id=\"id_2627594009\">历史先例：金融板块曾两度提前预警</h2><p>金融板块之所以被视为领先指标，在于其作为经济流动性提供者的核心地位。企业需要借贷来扩张业务，银行则通过放贷获利。一旦信贷条件收紧或借贷意愿下降，经济与股市往往随之承压。</p><p><strong>历史上，金融板块曾两度在大盘见顶前发出预警。互联网泡沫破裂前，XLF相对于标普500的走势于1999年4月开始走弱，距标普500最终见顶约早11个月；2008年金融危机前，XLF于2007年2月开始发出警示信号，距市场顶部约早8个月。</strong></p><p>面对上述信号，Scott Brown的建议是审慎而非激进。他表示，在当前市场中判断顶部并不容易，转为看空也颇为困难，因为这类警示信号有时会持续很长时间才被市场消化，甚至最终未必成真。</p><p>不过，他建议投资者或许可以考虑逐步&#34;减持芯片股&#34;，而非继续追涨，更不宜向市场加注新资金。摩根大通CEO Jamie Dimon此前曾将去年底浮现的私人信贷问题比作&#34;蟑螂&#34;——见到一只，背后可能还有更多——尽管他同时表示相关问题可能不具系统性风险，市场对此警告的反应总体平淡。但在金融板块持续发出异常信号的背景下，这一警告或许值得重新审视。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股一个危险信号：金融板块年内跌6%，大盘却在创新高</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股一个危险信号：金融板块年内跌6%，大盘却在创新高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-08 15:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>当<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数屡创历史新高之际，一个关键板块的持续缺席正在向市场发出警告。</p><p>美股金融板块今年以来已累计下跌约6%，而标普500指数同期上涨7%，并在过去17个交易日内14次收于历史高位。这一罕见背离引发部分市场人士警惕——类似的信号曾在互联网泡沫破裂和2008年金融危机前夕出现。</p><p>Brown Technical Insights创始人Scott Brown表示，<strong>&#34;美国股市离不开金融板块的支撑&#34;，历史表明金融股至少需要参与上涨行情，而当前它们连参与都谈不上。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3a20afc21326d4fa9da209d70ed04c5\" tg-width=\"1198\" tg-height=\"782\"/></p><p>私人信贷市场的隐忧被认为是金融板块承压的重要原因之一。SimCorp全球投资决策研究主管Melissa Brown指出，金融体系高度互联，相关风险&#34;有可能比目前预期的扩散得更广&#34;，需要密切关注。尽管<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>、美国银行和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>等大型银行在4月均公布了强劲的季度业绩，金融板块的颓势依然未能扭转。</p><h2 id=\"id_1618210792\">技术面背离：XLF跌破200日均线</h2><p>Scott Brown指出，金融板块的技术面信号尤为值得警惕。追踪金融板块的State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF（XLF）不仅在标普500创新高期间持续下跌，还始终运行于200日移动均线之下——后者被广泛视为判断长期趋势的重要参考。</p><p>历史数据显示，在此前32次标普500创新高而XLF同时位于200日均线以下的情形中，<strong>一个月后标普500有29次出现下跌，平均跌幅达3.3%。</strong>六个月后，标普500有18次下跌、14次上涨；一年后虽有17次上涨、15次下跌，平均涨幅4.6%，但下跌区间最大跌幅高达41.5%，显示下行风险不对称地偏大。</p><p>此外，在标普500全部11个SPDR行业ETF中，XLF是目前唯一一个价格与50日均线均低于200日均线的板块，这意味着金融板块在短期和长期趋势上均处于弱势。</p><p>从相对表现来看，情况同样不容乐观。据FactSet及MarketWatch数据，自XLF于1998年12月22日成立以来，该ETF相对于标普500的表现已跌至历史最低水平。</p><p>这意味着，金融板块当前相对于大盘的弱势程度，已超过新冠疫情冲击期间和2008年金融危机期间，更远差于2000年互联网泡沫破裂之初的水平。这一极端的相对弱势令部分分析人士感到不安。</p><h2 id=\"id_2627594009\">历史先例：金融板块曾两度提前预警</h2><p>金融板块之所以被视为领先指标，在于其作为经济流动性提供者的核心地位。企业需要借贷来扩张业务，银行则通过放贷获利。一旦信贷条件收紧或借贷意愿下降，经济与股市往往随之承压。</p><p><strong>历史上，金融板块曾两度在大盘见顶前发出预警。互联网泡沫破裂前，XLF相对于标普500的走势于1999年4月开始走弱，距标普500最终见顶约早11个月；2008年金融危机前，XLF于2007年2月开始发出警示信号，距市场顶部约早8个月。</strong></p><p>面对上述信号，Scott Brown的建议是审慎而非激进。他表示，在当前市场中判断顶部并不容易，转为看空也颇为困难，因为这类警示信号有时会持续很长时间才被市场消化，甚至最终未必成真。</p><p>不过，他建议投资者或许可以考虑逐步&#34;减持芯片股&#34;，而非继续追涨，更不宜向市场加注新资金。摩根大通CEO Jamie Dimon此前曾将去年底浮现的私人信贷问题比作&#34;蟑螂&#34;——见到一只，背后可能还有更多——尽管他同时表示相关问题可能不具系统性风险，市场对此警告的反应总体平淡。但在金融板块持续发出异常信号的背景下，这一警告或许值得重新审视。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e69e2b1cc0cbb2a2ca0853d058e325d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","SPGP":"Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF","VIXM":"波动率中期期货ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF","VUG":"成长股指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI","SPHD":"标普500高股利投资组合ETF-PowerShares","SPHQ":"Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF","IVW":"标普500成长股指数ETF-iShares","VIX":"标普500波动率指数","SPY":"标普500ETF","QMAR":"FT Vest Nasdaq-100 Buffer ETF - March","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SPYB":"Tradr 2X Long SPY Weekly ETF","TSPY":"TappAlpha SPY Growth & Daily Income ETF","SPYD":"SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF","QDEC":"FT Vest Nasdaq-100 Buffer ETF - December","MMAX":"iShares Large Cap Max Buffer Mar ETF","SPYG":"SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth 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Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF（XLF）不仅在标普500创新高期间持续下跌，还始终运行于200日移动均线之下——后者被广泛视为判断长期趋势的重要参考。历史数据显示，在此前32次标普500创新高而XLF同时位于200日均线以下的情形中，一个月后标普500有29次出现下跌，平均跌幅达3.3%。六个月后，标普500有18次下跌、14次上涨；一年后虽有17次上涨、15次下跌，平均涨幅4.6%，但下跌区间最大跌幅高达41.5%，显示下行风险不对称地偏大。此外，在标普500全部11个SPDR行业ETF中，XLF是目前唯一一个价格与50日均线均低于200日均线的板块，这意味着金融板块在短期和长期趋势上均处于弱势。从相对表现来看，情况同样不容乐观。据FactSet及MarketWatch数据，自XLF于1998年12月22日成立以来，该ETF相对于标普500的表现已跌至历史最低水平。这意味着，金融板块当前相对于大盘的弱势程度，已超过新冠疫情冲击期间和2008年金融危机期间，更远差于2000年互联网泡沫破裂之初的水平。这一极端的相对弱势令部分分析人士感到不安。历史先例：金融板块曾两度提前预警金融板块之所以被视为领先指标，在于其作为经济流动性提供者的核心地位。企业需要借贷来扩张业务，银行则通过放贷获利。一旦信贷条件收紧或借贷意愿下降，经济与股市往往随之承压。历史上，金融板块曾两度在大盘见顶前发出预警。互联网泡沫破裂前，XLF相对于标普500的走势于1999年4月开始走弱，距标普500最终见顶约早11个月；2008年金融危机前，XLF于2007年2月开始发出警示信号，距市场顶部约早8个月。面对上述信号，Scott Brown的建议是审慎而非激进。他表示，在当前市场中判断顶部并不容易，转为看空也颇为困难，因为这类警示信号有时会持续很长时间才被市场消化，甚至最终未必成真。不过，他建议投资者或许可以考虑逐步\"减持芯片股\"，而非继续追涨，更不宜向市场加注新资金。摩根大通CEO Jamie 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