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几米one
07-20

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

中概互联网巨头已触底？伯恩斯坦：AI成本被过度悲观解读，重点关注腾讯

伯恩斯坦认为，中概互联网板块最悲观阶段或已过去，市场对AI推理成本的担忧被明显放大。随着腾讯Hy3发布、阿里云增长提速，板块估值修复条件正在积累。其中，腾讯仍是首选标的，目标价780港元，较当前股价仍有约69%上涨空间。

中概互联网巨头已触底？伯恩斯坦：AI成本被过度悲观解读，重点关注腾讯

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">Boss直聘</a>的&#34;跑赢大市&#34;评级。其中腾讯目标价780港元，对应当前股价约有69%的上行空间；京东目标价40美元，对应2026年预期市盈率仅约8.4倍。</p>\n<p>报告明确指出，腾讯当前11至12倍的远期市盈率估值偏低，随着各项利空因素逐步消散，股价有望重新回归2021年以来17至18倍的历史均值区间。</p>\n<h2>AI成本恐慌被过度放大，推理费用并非无底洞</h2>\n<p>围绕腾讯和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴</a>的核心空头逻辑之一，在于AI推出将导致推理成本大幅侵蚀利润，而消费端AI变现却遥遥无期。</p>\n<p>伯恩斯坦对此提出反驳：<strong>推理成本的爆发式增长，前提是代理式（agentic）交易量和GMV同步起飞。</strong></p>\n<p>从数据来看，聊天机器人式对话通常仅消耗数百个token，而代理式交易平均消耗约5万个token。换言之，<strong>腾讯的token消耗量只有在代理式交易量真正放量时才会呈指数级增长</strong>。</p>\n<p>报告认为，用户参与度与变现增长之间存在时间差，但历史规律表明后者是&#34;何时发生&#34;而非&#34;是否发生&#34;的问题。</p>\n<p>在资本开支层面，腾讯过去12个月资本开支占营收比例为10.9%，低于阿里巴巴的12.3%。</p>\n<p>相对于经营现金流，腾讯的资本开支扩张空间远大于阿里巴巴。<strong>阿里云方面，第二季度营收增速加速至40%中段，低双位数的利润率意味着35%至40%的增量现金利润率，阿里巴巴亦表示年内将继续推进算力价格上调。</strong></p>\n<h2>腾讯AI战略轮廓渐清，Hy4时间表成关键观察点</h2>\n<p>伯恩斯坦在报告中详细梳理了腾讯AI布局的最新进展。Hy3模型在4月预览版基础上取得显著提升，小微助手亦已开始向用户灰度推送，早期反馈积极，并与主要安卓手机厂商签署的agent2agent协议形成协同。</p>\n<p>报告指出，腾讯Hy团队与微信团队此前保持独立运作，管理层解释称此举旨在避免相互依赖、防止一方延误拖累另一方。微信团队在此期间借助DeepSeek等<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01661\">中国前沿</a>模型推进产品迭代，元宝及Workbuddy的月活用户已达800至900万，为Hy3团队提供了用户反馈来源。</p>\n<p>伯恩斯坦预计，<strong>随着Hy4及后续模型性能持续提升，两个团队的协同设计程度将逐步加深。</strong>参照中国AI实验室参数规模平均扩大2至2.5倍的规律，Hy4预览版有望于年底前后发布。报告认为，腾讯在微信内希望实现的大多数AI功能，以现有代理式AI标准衡量相对直接，意味着自研模型将较快达到&#34;足够好&#34;的水平。</p>\n<p>在变现路径上，报告特别强调，微信小程序数万亿人民币的GMV是腾讯AI变现的核心机遇，通过商家侧实现货币化。这与西方市场投资者已基本放弃消费端AI变现预期的悲观情绪形成鲜明对比。</p>\n<h2>阿里巴巴业务重组提振估值，季节性催化剂值得关注</h2>\n<p>伯恩斯坦对阿里巴巴近期的业务架构调整持审慎乐观态度。将盒马从&#34;其他业务&#34;并入中国电商板块、将平头哥芯片业务纳入云计算板块，将有助于提升投资者重点关注的业务分部增速，在分类加总估值（SOTP）框架下具有正面意义。</p>\n<p>报告指出，Neocloud客户销售平头哥芯片并回租算力的安排，有助于降低阿里云报告口径的资本密集度，同时为外部芯片销售收入叙事提供支撑。此外，<strong>阿里巴巴持有约5%的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688825\">长鑫科技</a>股权，其潜在价值不容忽视。</strong></p>\n<p>历史规律同样值得关注：<strong>2024年和2025年，阿里巴巴股价均在9月云栖大会前后达到阶段性高点。</strong>伯恩斯坦认为，<strong>长鑫科技 IPO进展及云栖大会构成未来数月的重要催化剂窗口。</strong></p>\n<h2><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易</a>、京东及Boss直聘：低估值叠加盈利增长</h2>\n<p>在其他重点标的方面，伯恩斯坦对网易、京东和Boss直聘均持积极看法，核心逻辑在于估值偏低与盈利增长的组合。</p>\n<p>网易方面，《燃魂》（Sea of Remnants）将于7月23日国内上线，报告预计股价届时可能出现一定回调，但下半年营收低基数、加速回购、南向资金纳入预期以及《Ananta》后续消息，构成较为清晰的催化剂路径。伯恩斯坦回测数据显示，过去10年网易回购加速与随后股价表现之间存在高度相关性。</p>\n<p>京东和Boss直聘目前均以中个位数远期市盈率交易——后者剔除现金及投资后仅约4倍——而两家公司均维持两位数的盈利增长。<strong>伯恩斯坦上调了京东盈利预测，2026年非GAAP净利润预测较此前提升约8.8%，主要反映外卖业务亏损收窄快于预期及持续的利润率改善。</strong></p>\n<p>相比之下，<strong>报告对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>态度较为谨慎。</strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团</a>近期反弹后上行空间有限，且AI投入或仍处于早期阶段；拼多多管理层持续回避与投资者的资本回报沟通，被报告视为长期投资者面临的核心障碍。</p>\n<h2>估值仍接近历史低位，但修复条件正在积累</h2>\n<p>从整体估值来看，伯恩斯坦覆盖的中国互联网股票今年以来平均下跌约16%（含近期反弹），目前平均对应2026年和2027年预期市盈率分别为14.3倍和12.1倍，后者仅略高于2022至2023年的历史低点——彼时基本面受中国&#34;清零&#34;政策严重压制。</p>\n<p>自由现金流/企业价值收益率方面，腾讯和京东约为5%，网易约为10%，Boss直聘接近20%。京东、Boss直聘和拼多多的净现金均超过市值的40%，其中京东和Boss直聘管理层已积极回购股票。</p>\n<p>伯恩斯坦认为，<strong>腾讯当前低估值反映的是一系列&#34;当下合理但终将消散&#34;的担忧，包括游戏增长放缓及AI投入带来的费用压力。</strong>触发更明确反转信号的条件包括：经营利润预测触底回升、出现爆款新游戏（《三角洲行动》目前表现强劲），或Hy4发布真正平息AI能力争议。报告认为，随着上述因素逐步落地，腾讯股价不太可能长期停留在11至12倍远期市盈率的水平。</p>\n</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中概互联网巨头已触底？伯恩斯坦：AI成本被过度悲观解读，重点关注腾讯</title>\n<style 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22:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>中国互联网板块在经历上半年深度调整后，正迎来一轮情绪修复。</p>\n<p>据追风交易台，伯恩斯坦最新研究报告认为，<strong>市场对AI推理成本的悲观解读已严重失真，叠加<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>Hy3模型发布及阿里云增长超预期等催化剂，板块估值已从2022至2023年的历史低谷水平出现反弹，风险收益比有所改善。</strong></p>\n<p><strong>腾讯Hy3模型的发布以及小微助手开始向用户推送，是近期板块情绪回暖的核心驱动力。</strong></p>\n<p>伯恩斯坦分析师Robin Zhu在报告中指出，此前市场流传的部分AI成本叙事——例如平台将需要无限期补贴推理成本——已属&#34;严重失实且过度悲观&#34;。与此同时<strong>，阿里云第二季度营收增速加速至40%中段区间，电商利润亦好于预期，共同推动了板块整体反弹。</strong></p>\n<p>伯恩斯坦维持腾讯、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">Boss直聘</a>的&#34;跑赢大市&#34;评级。其中腾讯目标价780港元，对应当前股价约有69%的上行空间；京东目标价40美元，对应2026年预期市盈率仅约8.4倍。</p>\n<p>报告明确指出，腾讯当前11至12倍的远期市盈率估值偏低，随着各项利空因素逐步消散，股价有望重新回归2021年以来17至18倍的历史均值区间。</p>\n<h2>AI成本恐慌被过度放大，推理费用并非无底洞</h2>\n<p>围绕腾讯和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴</a>的核心空头逻辑之一，在于AI推出将导致推理成本大幅侵蚀利润，而消费端AI变现却遥遥无期。</p>\n<p>伯恩斯坦对此提出反驳：<strong>推理成本的爆发式增长，前提是代理式（agentic）交易量和GMV同步起飞。</strong></p>\n<p>从数据来看，聊天机器人式对话通常仅消耗数百个token，而代理式交易平均消耗约5万个token。换言之，<strong>腾讯的token消耗量只有在代理式交易量真正放量时才会呈指数级增长</strong>。</p>\n<p>报告认为，用户参与度与变现增长之间存在时间差，但历史规律表明后者是&#34;何时发生&#34;而非&#34;是否发生&#34;的问题。</p>\n<p>在资本开支层面，腾讯过去12个月资本开支占营收比例为10.9%，低于阿里巴巴的12.3%。</p>\n<p>相对于经营现金流，腾讯的资本开支扩张空间远大于阿里巴巴。<strong>阿里云方面，第二季度营收增速加速至40%中段，低双位数的利润率意味着35%至40%的增量现金利润率，阿里巴巴亦表示年内将继续推进算力价格上调。</strong></p>\n<h2>腾讯AI战略轮廓渐清，Hy4时间表成关键观察点</h2>\n<p>伯恩斯坦在报告中详细梳理了腾讯AI布局的最新进展。Hy3模型在4月预览版基础上取得显著提升，小微助手亦已开始向用户灰度推送，早期反馈积极，并与主要安卓手机厂商签署的agent2agent协议形成协同。</p>\n<p>报告指出，腾讯Hy团队与微信团队此前保持独立运作，管理层解释称此举旨在避免相互依赖、防止一方延误拖累另一方。微信团队在此期间借助DeepSeek等<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01661\">中国前沿</a>模型推进产品迭代，元宝及Workbuddy的月活用户已达800至900万，为Hy3团队提供了用户反馈来源。</p>\n<p>伯恩斯坦预计，<strong>随着Hy4及后续模型性能持续提升，两个团队的协同设计程度将逐步加深。</strong>参照中国AI实验室参数规模平均扩大2至2.5倍的规律，Hy4预览版有望于年底前后发布。报告认为，腾讯在微信内希望实现的大多数AI功能，以现有代理式AI标准衡量相对直接，意味着自研模型将较快达到&#34;足够好&#34;的水平。</p>\n<p>在变现路径上，报告特别强调，微信小程序数万亿人民币的GMV是腾讯AI变现的核心机遇，通过商家侧实现货币化。这与西方市场投资者已基本放弃消费端AI变现预期的悲观情绪形成鲜明对比。</p>\n<h2>阿里巴巴业务重组提振估值，季节性催化剂值得关注</h2>\n<p>伯恩斯坦对阿里巴巴近期的业务架构调整持审慎乐观态度。将盒马从&#34;其他业务&#34;并入中国电商板块、将平头哥芯片业务纳入云计算板块，将有助于提升投资者重点关注的业务分部增速，在分类加总估值（SOTP）框架下具有正面意义。</p>\n<p>报告指出，Neocloud客户销售平头哥芯片并回租算力的安排，有助于降低阿里云报告口径的资本密集度，同时为外部芯片销售收入叙事提供支撑。此外，<strong>阿里巴巴持有约5%的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688825\">长鑫科技</a>股权，其潜在价值不容忽视。</strong></p>\n<p>历史规律同样值得关注：<strong>2024年和2025年，阿里巴巴股价均在9月云栖大会前后达到阶段性高点。</strong>伯恩斯坦认为，<strong>长鑫科技 IPO进展及云栖大会构成未来数月的重要催化剂窗口。</strong></p>\n<h2><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易</a>、京东及Boss直聘：低估值叠加盈利增长</h2>\n<p>在其他重点标的方面，伯恩斯坦对网易、京东和Boss直聘均持积极看法，核心逻辑在于估值偏低与盈利增长的组合。</p>\n<p>网易方面，《燃魂》（Sea of Remnants）将于7月23日国内上线，报告预计股价届时可能出现一定回调，但下半年营收低基数、加速回购、南向资金纳入预期以及《Ananta》后续消息，构成较为清晰的催化剂路径。伯恩斯坦回测数据显示，过去10年网易回购加速与随后股价表现之间存在高度相关性。</p>\n<p>京东和Boss直聘目前均以中个位数远期市盈率交易——后者剔除现金及投资后仅约4倍——而两家公司均维持两位数的盈利增长。<strong>伯恩斯坦上调了京东盈利预测，2026年非GAAP净利润预测较此前提升约8.8%，主要反映外卖业务亏损收窄快于预期及持续的利润率改善。</strong></p>\n<p>相比之下，<strong>报告对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>态度较为谨慎。</strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团</a>近期反弹后上行空间有限，且AI投入或仍处于早期阶段；拼多多管理层持续回避与投资者的资本回报沟通，被报告视为长期投资者面临的核心障碍。</p>\n<h2>估值仍接近历史低位，但修复条件正在积累</h2>\n<p>从整体估值来看，伯恩斯坦覆盖的中国互联网股票今年以来平均下跌约16%（含近期反弹），目前平均对应2026年和2027年预期市盈率分别为14.3倍和12.1倍，后者仅略高于2022至2023年的历史低点——彼时基本面受中国&#34;清零&#34;政策严重压制。</p>\n<p>自由现金流/企业价值收益率方面，腾讯和京东约为5%，网易约为10%，Boss直聘接近20%。京东、Boss直聘和拼多多的净现金均超过市值的40%，其中京东和Boss直聘管理层已积极回购股票。</p>\n<p>伯恩斯坦认为，<strong>腾讯当前低估值反映的是一系列&#34;当下合理但终将消散&#34;的担忧，包括游戏增长放缓及AI投入带来的费用压力。</strong>触发更明确反转信号的条件包括：经营利润预测触底回升、出现爆款新游戏（《三角洲行动》目前表现强劲），或Hy4发布真正平息AI能力争议。报告认为，随着上述因素逐步落地，腾讯股价不太可能长期停留在11至12倍远期市盈率的水平。</p>\n</body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{"89988":"阿里巴巴-WR","LU1770034418.SGD":"ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2087589342.USD":"BGF ASIAN MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A6\" (USD) INC","LU0762540952.USD":"HSBC GIF MANAGED SOLUTIONS ASIA FOCUSED INCOME \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0132412106.USD":"abrdn 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