明天砸盘子就买，其实_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

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momomomo同学
08-03

明天砸盘子就买，其实是每个封装增加了五倍，从数封装到数die的误传

SemiAnalysis最新研判：英伟达Rubin Ultra规格缩水，AI服务器开始重新计算“成本账”

研究机构SemiAnalysis最新报告指出，英伟达向核心客户展示的Rubin Ultra预览版规格低于市场此前预期。SemiAnalysis表示，MI455X取消了LPDDR5X配置，并下调DDR5容量，整机DRAM预算明显收缩。报告认为，这背后反映的是AI服务器厂商开始重新平衡成本投入。随着HBM价格持续上涨，Rubin Ultra单机架物料成本一度由约660万美元升至800万美元。不过，SemiAnalysis认为，近期AI存储板块股价大幅波动，并不意味着行业基本面发生根本变化，更大程度上反映了杠杆资金出清及外资获利了结带来的短期冲击。

SemiAnalysis最新研判：英伟达Rubin Ultra规格缩水，AI服务器开始重新计算“成本账”

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style=\"text-align: left;\">研究机构SemiAnalysis最新报告指出，英伟达向核心客户展示的<strong>Rubin Ultra</strong>预览版规格低于市场此前预期。原本市场预计将搭载<strong>HBM4E 12-Hi、384GB</strong>配置，但最新版本调整为<strong>HBM4 8-Hi、192GB</strong>，HBM容量大幅减少，芯片功耗也由约<strong>2300W</strong>降至<strong>1800W</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不仅英伟达，AMD也采取了类似策略。SemiAnalysis表示，<strong>MI455X</strong>取消了LPDDR5X配置，并下调DDR5容量，整机DRAM预算明显收缩。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告认为，这背后反映的是AI服务器厂商开始重新平衡成本投入。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着HBM价格持续上涨，Rubin Ultra单机架物料成本（BOM）一度由约<strong>660万美元</strong>升至<strong>800万美元</strong>。调整配置后，BOM重新降至约<strong>640万美元</strong>。与此同时，HBM成本占整机BOM的比重由接近<strong>40%降至约28%</strong>，节省出来的预算则更多投入到高速互联网络，网络成本占比由<strong>4%提升至12%</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">换句话说，当HBM成本不断攀升时，AI服务器厂商开始重新评估资金配置，希望将更多预算投入到提升整体系统性能和扩展能力的环节，而不仅仅是继续增加单卡内存容量。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一变化也意味着产业链的利润正在重新分配。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上游存储厂商仍然是最大受益者。SK海力士第二季度营业利润达到<strong>60.54万亿韩元</strong>，创历史新高；三星电子半导体业务贡献了集团**99.7%**的营业利润。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">相比之下，下游终端厂商则面临更大的成本压力。三星移动业务第二季度亏损约<strong>0.7万亿韩元</strong>，智能手机厂商普遍抵制存储厂商提出的涨价方案，产业链利润进一步向上游集中。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，SemiAnalysis认为，近期AI存储板块股价大幅波动，并不意味着行业基本面发生根本变化，更大程度上反映了<strong>杠杆资金出清及外资获利了结</strong>带来的短期冲击。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从基本面来看，HBM供给依然偏紧，而AI基础设施投资热度仍未降温。预计2026年全球五大云服务厂商资本开支合计将达到<strong>7300亿美元</strong>，同比接近翻倍。在AI需求持续增长的背景下，HBM龙头厂商的长期景气逻辑仍然存在，只是随着HBM价格持续上涨，整机厂商未来可能会更加关注成本效率，在性能、成本和功耗之间寻找新的平衡。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"NVDW":"NVDA周配息ETF-Roundhill","AVGO":"博通","AVL":"2倍做多AVGO ETF-Direxion","SMCX":"2倍做多SMCI ETF-Defiance","NVDX":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-T-Rex","DLLL":"2倍做多DELL ETF-GraniteShares","AMDD":"1倍做空AMD 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Ultra单机架物料成本（BOM）一度由约660万美元升至800万美元。调整配置后，BOM重新降至约640万美元。与此同时，HBM成本占整机BOM的比重由接近40%降至约28%，节省出来的预算则更多投入到高速互联网络，网络成本占比由4%提升至12%。换句话说，当HBM成本不断攀升时，AI服务器厂商开始重新评估资金配置，希望将更多预算投入到提升整体系统性能和扩展能力的环节，而不仅仅是继续增加单卡内存容量。这一变化也意味着产业链的利润正在重新分配。上游存储厂商仍然是最大受益者。SK海力士第二季度营业利润达到60.54万亿韩元，创历史新高；三星电子半导体业务贡献了集团**99.7%**的营业利润。相比之下，下游终端厂商则面临更大的成本压力。三星移动业务第二季度亏损约0.7万亿韩元，智能手机厂商普遍抵制存储厂商提出的涨价方案，产业链利润进一步向上游集中。不过，SemiAnalysis认为，近期AI存储板块股价大幅波动，并不意味着行业基本面发生根本变化，更大程度上反映了杠杆资金出清及外资获利了结带来的短期冲击。从基本面来看，HBM供给依然偏紧，而AI基础设施投资热度仍未降温。预计2026年全球五大云服务厂商资本开支合计将达到7300亿美元，同比接近翻倍。在AI需求持续增长的背景下，HBM龙头厂商的长期景气逻辑仍然存在，只是随着HBM价格持续上涨，整机厂商未来可能会更加关注成本效率，在性能、成本和功耗之间寻找新的平衡。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDD":0.6,"07388":0.6,"AMDY":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"07788":0.6,"AMYY":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"AVS":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"MU":2,"NVDG":0.6,"SMYY":0.6,"NVDA":2,"NVDL":0.6,"AMD":2,"NVII":0.6,"SMCL":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"AVGU":0.6,"MUZ":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"AMDG":0.6,"AVGO":2,"AVL":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"AVGG":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"DAMD":0.6,"AVGX":0.6,"DLLL":0.6,"DELL":2,"SMCZ":0.6,"SMCX":0.6,"MUYY":0.6,"AMDU":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"AMDD":0.6,"AMDW":0.6,"MIC":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"AMDL":0.6,"AMUU":0.6,"SMCC":0.6,"SMCI":2,"SMCY":0.6,"HPE":2,"AVGW":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":521,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":61,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}