次贷风险来源于穷人炒_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

次贷风险来源于穷人炒房，客户经理和衍生工具。AI代表人类最高智慧，不是一个层面

“大空头”输急眼了? 伯里怒斥英伟达5000亿美元融资是“2008金融工程”，市场却用真金白银力挺AI算力需求

也有投资者评论称大空头最新的对于英伟达主导融资活动的猛烈抨击——将5000亿美元融资批为类似2008年的华尔街金融工程，似乎是这位大空头“输急眼了”。5000亿美元AI融资遭遇“大空头”狙击!据称，Apollo向一家名为Valor的特殊目的实体发行了35亿美元债务，同时英伟达直接注入19亿美元股权资金。伯里最近通过看跌期权进一步增加了对英伟达等一众AI算力产业链领军者们的直接做空押注。

“大空头”输急眼了? 伯里怒斥英伟达5000亿美元融资是“2008金融工程”，市场却用真金白银力挺AI算力需求

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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Co.(KKR.US)签署一份备受瞩目的谅解备忘录，计划在全球范围内建立首批此类AI算力基础设施融资平台，融资规模的初步设定已经高达5000亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">作为一个撮合交易的市场平台，英伟达计划通过一项“残值机制”，为单个项目最高提供25%的保障，以支持这些融资交易。如果某个项目陷入困境，这家芯片巨头将通过大规模出售其需求无比强劲的专属AI芯片产品，或寻找新的企业承租相关人工智能算力容量来提供财务支持，从而尽量降低损失。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，伯里在订阅平台指控称，这些交易背后存在一条高度杠杆化且具有循环性质的资金链。根据他制作的一份信息图，美国退休人员向Apollo(APO.US)旗下Athene支付的年金保费，会经由一家设在百慕大的离岸再保险公司进行转移，并由Apollo进一步加杠杆，转化为资产支持债务。据称，Apollo向一家名为Valor的特殊目的实体发行了35亿美元债务，同时英伟达直接注入19亿美元股权资金。随后，VCI购买价值54亿美元的英伟达GB200 GPU，并将这些GPU出租给xAI，用于其Grok超级计算机集群。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9bd46e6b6dc23945ff84d0a8d35f2226\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"200\" tg-height=\"120\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于“大空头”这类AI繁荣怀疑者们而言，这种复杂的融资结构人为推高了收入数据，同时却将折旧风险转嫁给了毫不知情的退休人员。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“我大概知道这最终会是什么样子，”伯里在X平台的一篇帖子中写道。伯里最近通过看跌期权进一步增加了对英伟达等一众AI算力产业链领军者们的直接做空押注。“认识一下新老板吧。其实和2008年的那些旧时代老板没什么两样。”伯里讽刺道。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">5000亿美元究竟是“金融把戏”还是AI工业革命融资?信用利差回落、Neocloud狂飙，资金暂时选择相信黄仁勋</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Nebius周三公布前景财报后，在美股盘初交易一度暴涨近20%，恰好重新逼近伯里约212美元的做空成本，有华尔街分析师甚至认为空头回补可能成为该公司股价的强劲上涨放大器之一。毋庸置疑的是，伯里正在经历严重的空头价格压力，但目前没有任何可靠证据证明伯里本人已经遭遇强制平仓或必须回补。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">阿斯麦</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>这两大AI算力产业链上游最重要产能与供给力量近期公布的炸裂业绩以及强劲业绩展望，再到CoreWeave与鸿海、Nebius最新公布的强劲业绩与展望，实际上正在向全球股票市场释放一个重要信号：AI算力产业链已经从“训练AI大模型的AI资本开支超级周期”逐渐进入“智能体规模化应用驱动的AI推理算力需求指数级扩张”的新阶段，这些最新信号可谓痛击近期导致AI算力主题尤其是AI半导体板块暴跌的“算力过剩”这一悲观论调。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">最靠近AI算力终端需求的CoreWeave刚刚把2026年资本支出预期提高至惊人的350亿—390亿美元，Q2营收显著超过预期，并称在供给仍有限的情况下继续以有利条款签下云算力合同。与此同时，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>也报告创纪录季度盈利，并披露已与约10家核心客户签订长期供货协议，反映HBM等高性能存储需求已由短周期订单转向多年期锁量。这些产业链层面不同环节可谓都在释放出AI算力需求仍在加速扩张的积极信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场此刻究竟相信伯里，还是相信黄仁勋+摩根士丹利?答案已经相当明确：边际资金目前明显站在后者一边，但还没有宣布伯里的长期风险论证失效。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">最重要的证据甚至不是股票，而是信用市场：5000亿美元计划刚公布时，市场担心英伟达承担巨额表外风险;黄仁勋随后明确，这5000亿美元是准备逐步动员的第三方资本，并非英伟达收入，也不是已经承诺给某个客户的资金，Apollo、贝莱德、黑石、Brookfield、高盛、KKR将逐项目独立承销，英伟达的支持上限只是单个项目抵押品价值的约25%残值支持(Residual-value Backstop)。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随后英伟达2056年债券相对美债的利差收窄约2bp至113bp，5年CDS最多收窄约5bp至72.11bp——这是一种非常清晰的债券市场语言：投资者在黄仁勋澄清结构以后下调了英伟达信用风险定价。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根士丹利与美银的判断也大体一致：第三方专业资本主导尽调和决策，明显削弱了“英伟达自己出钱——客户拿钱买英伟达GPU——英伟达虚增收入”这种最纯粹的循环式AI繁荣逻辑;与此同时，使用量挂钩实际营收又可能让英伟达从一次性卖GPU进一步分享AI工厂生命周期现金流。 换句话说，市场目前不是认为这5000亿美元“没有信用风险”，而是认为风险更像可承销、可定价的基础设施融资风险，而不是2008年前那种已经失真的资产需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里押注2008华尔街金融工程重演，CoreWeave与Nebius却交出需求爆表答卷</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">真正对伯里“2008式金融工程”论点形成最强挑战的，是两大新云(Neocloud)领军者——CoreWeave和Nebius今天同时给出的实物需求、价格和残值证据。 CoreWeave Q2收入达到约26亿美元、同比+112%，订单积压甚至大幅升至1042亿美元，且还没有包括本季度初新签的超过250亿美元承诺;公司明确表示近端容量“实际上已经售罄”，因此正在以越来越有利的价格签新合同，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>分析师团队甚至把这种涨价归因于需求环境以及云计算和AI应用端客户们ROI加速改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">更重要的是，CoreWeave直接给了伯里“GPU只有2—3年经济寿命”论点一个极具杀伤力的反例：公司刚刚为2020年发布的A100签署了一份持续到2029年的新合同，而且价格仍具吸引力;管理层还明确表示旧代GPU机群仍基本售罄，初始合同结束后的重新出租属于已有投资回报之外的增量收益，并观察到更长的使用周期和更高的价格。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Nebius的证据甚至更激进：Q2收入5.823亿美元、超过5.7275亿美元一致预期，AI Cloud(AI相关云计算业务)收入接近同比六倍，单季签下4份平均超过10亿美元的合同，新客户合同价值环比增长超过9倍，拥有超过400亿美元客户承诺+预计今年超过90亿美元客户预付款;公司甚至表示，按照当前条件它已经可以把2027年全部计划容量卖光。这组最新经营数据至少在2026年8月这个时点强烈支持黄仁勋所谓“需求是真实的、在产AI算力是稀缺生产性资产”的说法，而不是支持“融资创造了虚假GPU需求”。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“大空头”输急眼了? 伯里怒斥英伟达5000亿美元融资是“2008金融工程”，市场却用真金白银力挺AI算力需求\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-08-12 22:27 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1479183.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周三美股市场盘初时段，有着“大空头”称号的迈克尔·伯里(Michael Burry)对“AI芯片超级霸主”英伟达(NVDA.US)主导的规模达5000亿美元的人工智能基础设施融资安排发起猛烈批评。他将由私人信贷与资产支持证券构成的复杂融资网络，与2008年金融危机前夕积聚的系统性金融风险相提并论，并称这一安排是一场“华尔街专属的类似2008年把戏”。有着“大空头”称号的迈克尔·伯里一直在他的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1479183.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92a41d20711c9fa4b2aa3cc62ea62948","relate_stocks":{"BK4608":"AI应用概念股","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","CHAT":"ROUNDHILL GENERATIVE AI & TECHNOLOGY ETF","LU0444973449.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU2191332357.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF SUSTAINABLE MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (HKDHDG) INC","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","BK4605":"半导体精选","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","BK4527":"明星科技股","WISE":"THEMES GENERATIVE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ETF","IXN":"iShares Trust S&P Global Informa","SGXZ81514606.USD":"大华环球创新基金A Acc USD","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU2065171311.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0157215616.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" INC","LU2065171402.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (SGD) INC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4612":"AI芯片","LU0029864427.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","HK0000532082.HKD":"ALLIANZ SELECTION INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","BK4614":"Manus概念股","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","LU0861579265.USD":"联博低波幅策略股票基金A","LU2413666699.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT \"CRH\" (HKDHDG) INC","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU0187121727.USD":"FIDELITY SUSTAINABLE US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","CHPX":"Global X AI Semiconductor & Quantum ETF","LU0965509010.AUD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU0143551892.USD":"T ROWE PRICE GLOBAL FOCUSED GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1732800096.USD":"摩根大通环球收益基金A (irc)","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","LU2462591277.SGD":"TRP GLOBAL FOCUSED GROWTH EQUITY \"AN\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1084165304.USD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU2954938101.SGD":"T ROWE PRICE GLOBAL FOCUSED GROWTH EQUITY \"A8P\" (SGD) INC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","TTEQ":"T. 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Burry)对“AI芯片超级霸主”英伟达(NVDA.US)主导的规模达5000亿美元的人工智能基础设施融资安排发起猛烈批评。他将由私人信贷与资产支持证券构成的复杂融资网络，与2008年金融危机前夕积聚的系统性金融风险相提并论，并称这一安排是一场“华尔街专属的类似2008年把戏”。有着“大空头”称号的迈克尔·伯里一直在他的Substack订阅平台上发布“末日将至”的悲观言论，并且在全球资金持续蜂拥至AI算力基建主题之际，大举做空热门AI科技股票。这位电影《大空头》的原型人物近期频繁做空操作更明显聚焦于AI算力基建相关的拥挤交易以及AI半导体资本开支周期，比如伯里通过看跌期权或空头表达了对英伟达、特斯拉、美光、应用材料、Palantir Technologies以及iShares半导体ETF的持续看空仓位。实际上已经把自己的空头组合升级成了一场针对“AI资本开支+AI估值”的系统性押注，然而，近日AI半导体以及更广泛的AI算力主题强势反攻，尤其是周三美国温和CPI增长数据所驱动的科技股涨势，确实正在给这套“做空AI”交易机制制造明显压力。尤其是当前CoreWeave的容量售罄、A100延寿至2029、Nebius的涨价与400亿美元客户承诺以及英伟达信用利差回落，都使天平显著偏向黄仁勋/摩根士丹利的“AI工厂可融资资产”框架。也有投资者评论称大空头最新的对于英伟达主导融资活动的猛烈抨击——将5000亿美元融资批为类似2008年的华尔街金融工程，似乎是这位大空头“输急眼了”。与此同时，CoreWeave上调2026年资本开支至350亿—390亿美元、财报后一度大涨，Nebius Q2收入同比暴增并表示按当前条件甚至可以售罄2027年计划容量，现实交易和产业链层面显然正在强化“AI算力需求仍然真实且紧缺”的多头叙事。作为对比，正在做空Nebius的伯里现在可能正在承受回补压力。伯里此前掌舵的Scion Asset Management已于2025年11月注销注册，因此现在看到的更多是伯里通过付费订阅平台——Substack平台的“Cassandra Unchained”主动披露的个人交易，而不是传统13F持仓快照。近期公开信息显示，他仍维持对英伟达、Palantir、SOXX半导体ETF(费城半导体ETF)和QQQ(纳斯达克100指数ETF)的看空敞口，并把部分英伟达/QQQ看跌期权展期至2027年，同时8月7日又披露以约212美元直接做空Nebius，而且称仓位规模“相对更大”，然而在新云势力(Neocloud)CoreWeave以及Nebius周三公布强劲财报后，这两大新云公司股价大涨近20%。此前Palantir在8月4日炸裂财报后单日暴涨约29.5%，整个Palantir空头阵营当天账面损失约创纪录的30亿美元;然而伯里近期在这家AI应用领头羊公布强劲财报之前重新建立了2027年到期的Palantir价外看跌期权，因此其空头组合显然承受新的Mark-to-Market严峻压力——即当市场价格上涨时，做空者(空头势力)因为借入卖出的资产价格比买入时高，导致账户产生未实现亏损，经纪商会要求他们不断补充保证金。5000亿美元AI融资遭遇“大空头”狙击!伯里质疑英伟达主导的循环杠杆美国七大科技巨头之一的英伟达，已经与Apollo Global Management(APO.US)、黑石集团(BX.US)、贝莱德(BLK.US)、Brookfield(BN.US)、高盛(GS.US)以及KKR & Co.(KKR.US)签署一份备受瞩目的谅解备忘录，计划在全球范围内建立首批此类AI算力基础设施融资平台，融资规模的初步设定已经高达5000亿美元。作为一个撮合交易的市场平台，英伟达计划通过一项“残值机制”，为单个项目最高提供25%的保障，以支持这些融资交易。如果某个项目陷入困境，这家芯片巨头将通过大规模出售其需求无比强劲的专属AI芯片产品，或寻找新的企业承租相关人工智能算力容量来提供财务支持，从而尽量降低损失。然而，伯里在订阅平台指控称，这些交易背后存在一条高度杠杆化且具有循环性质的资金链。根据他制作的一份信息图，美国退休人员向Apollo(APO.US)旗下Athene支付的年金保费，会经由一家设在百慕大的离岸再保险公司进行转移，并由Apollo进一步加杠杆，转化为资产支持债务。据称，Apollo向一家名为Valor的特殊目的实体发行了35亿美元债务，同时英伟达直接注入19亿美元股权资金。随后，VCI购买价值54亿美元的英伟达GB200 GPU，并将这些GPU出租给xAI，用于其Grok超级计算机集群。对于“大空头”这类AI繁荣怀疑者们而言，这种复杂的融资结构人为推高了收入数据，同时却将折旧风险转嫁给了毫不知情的退休人员。“我大概知道这最终会是什么样子，”伯里在X平台的一篇帖子中写道。伯里最近通过看跌期权进一步增加了对英伟达等一众AI算力产业链领军者们的直接做空押注。“认识一下新老板吧。其实和2008年的那些旧时代老板没什么两样。”伯里讽刺道。5000亿美元究竟是“金融把戏”还是AI工业革命融资?信用利差回落、Neocloud狂飙，资金暂时选择相信黄仁勋Nebius周三公布前景财报后，在美股盘初交易一度暴涨近20%，恰好重新逼近伯里约212美元的做空成本，有华尔街分析师甚至认为空头回补可能成为该公司股价的强劲上涨放大器之一。毋庸置疑的是，伯里正在经历严重的空头价格压力，但目前没有任何可靠证据证明伯里本人已经遭遇强制平仓或必须回补。阿斯麦与台积电这两大AI算力产业链上游最重要产能与供给力量近期公布的炸裂业绩以及强劲业绩展望，再到CoreWeave与鸿海、Nebius最新公布的强劲业绩与展望，实际上正在向全球股票市场释放一个重要信号：AI算力产业链已经从“训练AI大模型的AI资本开支超级周期”逐渐进入“智能体规模化应用驱动的AI推理算力需求指数级扩张”的新阶段，这些最新信号可谓痛击近期导致AI算力主题尤其是AI半导体板块暴跌的“算力过剩”这一悲观论调。最靠近AI算力终端需求的CoreWeave刚刚把2026年资本支出预期提高至惊人的350亿—390亿美元，Q2营收显著超过预期，并称在供给仍有限的情况下继续以有利条款签下云算力合同。与此同时，SK海力士也报告创纪录季度盈利，并披露已与约10家核心客户签订长期供货协议，反映HBM等高性能存储需求已由短周期订单转向多年期锁量。这些产业链层面不同环节可谓都在释放出AI算力需求仍在加速扩张的积极信号。市场此刻究竟相信伯里，还是相信黄仁勋+摩根士丹利?答案已经相当明确：边际资金目前明显站在后者一边，但还没有宣布伯里的长期风险论证失效。最重要的证据甚至不是股票，而是信用市场：5000亿美元计划刚公布时，市场担心英伟达承担巨额表外风险;黄仁勋随后明确，这5000亿美元是准备逐步动员的第三方资本，并非英伟达收入，也不是已经承诺给某个客户的资金，Apollo、贝莱德、黑石、Brookfield、高盛、KKR将逐项目独立承销，英伟达的支持上限只是单个项目抵押品价值的约25%残值支持(Residual-value Backstop)。随后英伟达2056年债券相对美债的利差收窄约2bp至113bp，5年CDS最多收窄约5bp至72.11bp——这是一种非常清晰的债券市场语言：投资者在黄仁勋澄清结构以后下调了英伟达信用风险定价。摩根士丹利与美银的判断也大体一致：第三方专业资本主导尽调和决策，明显削弱了“英伟达自己出钱——客户拿钱买英伟达GPU——英伟达虚增收入”这种最纯粹的循环式AI繁荣逻辑;与此同时，使用量挂钩实际营收又可能让英伟达从一次性卖GPU进一步分享AI工厂生命周期现金流。 换句话说，市场目前不是认为这5000亿美元“没有信用风险”，而是认为风险更像可承销、可定价的基础设施融资风险，而不是2008年前那种已经失真的资产需求。伯里押注2008华尔街金融工程重演，CoreWeave与Nebius却交出需求爆表答卷真正对伯里“2008式金融工程”论点形成最强挑战的，是两大新云(Neocloud)领军者——CoreWeave和Nebius今天同时给出的实物需求、价格和残值证据。 CoreWeave Q2收入达到约26亿美元、同比+112%，订单积压甚至大幅升至1042亿美元，且还没有包括本季度初新签的超过250亿美元承诺;公司明确表示近端容量“实际上已经售罄”，因此正在以越来越有利的价格签新合同，摩根大通分析师团队甚至把这种涨价归因于需求环境以及云计算和AI应用端客户们ROI加速改善。更重要的是，CoreWeave直接给了伯里“GPU只有2—3年经济寿命”论点一个极具杀伤力的反例：公司刚刚为2020年发布的A100签署了一份持续到2029年的新合同，而且价格仍具吸引力;管理层还明确表示旧代GPU机群仍基本售罄，初始合同结束后的重新出租属于已有投资回报之外的增量收益，并观察到更长的使用周期和更高的价格。Nebius的证据甚至更激进：Q2收入5.823亿美元、超过5.7275亿美元一致预期，AI 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