全面超预期还跌2个点_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

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易拉罐味汽水
08-13

全面超预期还跌2个点，国内股市和业绩没啥关系

华尔街点评腾讯业绩：AI价值已在广告业务显现，高额资本开支旨在换取长期AI基础设施门票

腾讯旗下自动化广告管理解决方案AIM+升级是广告业务超预期的重要驱动因素。各机构将下半年关注焦点集中于：AI资本开支走势及算力资源分配、混元大模型Hy4的发布时间表、WorkBuddy的商业化路径、微信AI助手的用户反馈与功能进展，以及宏观环境对广告需求的影响。

华尔街点评腾讯业绩：AI价值已在广告业务显现，高额资本开支旨在换取长期AI基础设施门票

# 华尔街见闻

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>上的持续加码投入。</p>\n<h2>资本开支骤增，自由现金流转负</h2>\n<p>二季度资本开支达528亿元，占总收入的26%，环比增长65%，同比增长176%，是本季度最受市场关注的财务指标。</p>\n<p>据高盛研究，腾讯管理层表示，若有需要，可将对外投资的AI基础设施通过腾讯云以具吸引力的价格对外出租，以此作为资本开支的下行保护机制。</p>\n<p>花旗研究指出，若剔除AI相关支出及算力采购预付款，自由现金流将由负138亿元转正至约376亿元，显示核心业务现金流生成能力依然稳健。</p>\n<h2>各行机构维持买入，目标价存分歧</h2>\n<p>四家机构均维持对腾讯的买入或增持评级，但目标价存在差异。</p>\n<p>花旗维持买入评级，目标价758港元，基于分类加总估值法，对应2026年预期市盈率约22.8倍；杰富瑞维持买入评级，目标价750港元；高盛维持买入评级，目标价700港元；摩根士丹利维持增持评级，目标价650港元，基于核心业务DCF估值加联营投资折价计算。</p>\n<p>各机构将下半年关注焦点集中于：AI资本开支走势及算力资源分配、混元大模型Hy4的发布时间表、WorkBuddy的商业化路径、微信AI助手（小微）的用户反馈与功能进展，以及宏观环境对广告需求的影响。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华尔街点评腾讯业绩：AI价值已在广告业务显现，高额资本开支旨在换取长期AI基础设施门票</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街点评腾讯业绩：AI价值已在广告业务显现，高额资本开支旨在换取长期AI基础设施门票\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-13 08:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>2026年第二季度业绩全面超出市场预期，国内游戏与广告收入双双录得强劲增长，但大幅攀升的AI相关资本开支令自由现金流转负，成为投资者关注的核心变量。</p>\n<p>腾讯二季度总收入同比增长11%至人民币2048亿元，较市场一致预期高约1%。其中，国内游戏收入同比增长17%至473亿元，营销服务收入同比增长22%至436亿元，均显著超出预期。非国际财务报告准则净利润同比增长9%至684亿元，与市场预期基本持平。</p>\n<p>二季度最受市场关注的变量是资本开支的大幅跳升。当季资本开支达人民币528亿元，环比增长65%，同比增长176%，导致自由现金流转负至约负138亿元。若剔除AI相关支出及算力采购预付款，自由现金流则约为正376亿元。</p>\n<p>在维持腾讯买入评级的同时，多家华尔街机构将资本开支走势及其对盈利的影响列为下半年核心观察点。总体认为，AI的价值已在广告业务显现，高昂的资本开支旨在换取长期AI基础设施的门票。</p>\n<h2>国内游戏与广告领跑，国际游戏承压</h2>\n<p>国内游戏收入同比增长17%至473亿元，超出花旗预期约8%，超出<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">杰富瑞</a>预期约7%。据花旗研究，增长主要由《三角洲行动》、《无畏契约》PC及移动端版本以及《洛克王国：世界》贡献。</p>\n<p>营销服务收入同比增长22%至436亿元，加速势头延续。据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>研究，这一增速较一季度的20%进一步提升，主要受益于AI驱动的广告投放效率提升及闭环交易增长。花旗研究指出，腾讯旗下自动化广告管理解决方案AIM+的升级——引入AI端到端执行能力——是广告业务超预期的重要驱动因素。</p>\n<p>国际游戏收入则表现疲软，同比下滑0.8%至186亿元，按固定汇率计算增长约4%，低于市场一致预期约9%至10%。据高盛研究，《无畏契约》和《绝地求生：移动版》的增长被Supercell旗下产品表现放缓所抵消。</p>\n<p>金融科技与企业服务收入同比增长9%至603亿元，与各机构预期基本吻合。据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>研究，其中云业务收入同比增速加速至低二十几个百分点，受AI需求、国际扩张及通用云服务需求提升驱动。</p>\n<h2>毛利率改善，AI新产品亏损扩大</h2>\n<p>二季度毛利润同比增长13%至1184亿元，毛利率为58%，高于花旗预期的56.9%及市场一致预期的约57%。</p>\n<p>非国际财务报告准则经营利润同比增长9%至756亿元，经营利润率为37%，较一季度的38.5%有所收窄。摩根士丹利研究指出，若剔除AI新产品亏损，经营利润同比增速可达19%。</p>\n<p>据高盛研究，AI新产品（包括混元大模型、WorkBuddy及小微）二季度亏损约105亿元，较一季度的88亿元进一步扩大，反映腾讯在AI产品<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>上的持续加码投入。</p>\n<h2>资本开支骤增，自由现金流转负</h2>\n<p>二季度资本开支达528亿元，占总收入的26%，环比增长65%，同比增长176%，是本季度最受市场关注的财务指标。</p>\n<p>据高盛研究，腾讯管理层表示，若有需要，可将对外投资的AI基础设施通过腾讯云以具吸引力的价格对外出租，以此作为资本开支的下行保护机制。</p>\n<p>花旗研究指出，若剔除AI相关支出及算力采购预付款，自由现金流将由负138亿元转正至约376亿元，显示核心业务现金流生成能力依然稳健。</p>\n<h2>各行机构维持买入，目标价存分歧</h2>\n<p>四家机构均维持对腾讯的买入或增持评级，但目标价存在差异。</p>\n<p>花旗维持买入评级，目标价758港元，基于分类加总估值法，对应2026年预期市盈率约22.8倍；杰富瑞维持买入评级，目标价750港元；高盛维持买入评级，目标价700港元；摩根士丹利维持增持评级，目标价650港元，基于核心业务DCF估值加联营投资折价计算。</p>\n<p>各机构将下半年关注焦点集中于：AI资本开支走势及算力资源分配、混元大模型Hy4的发布时间表、WorkBuddy的商业化路径、微信AI助手（小微）的用户反馈与功能进展，以及宏观环境对广告需求的影响。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5b4b6a7fee10c4eab9f94135f834dbd","relate_stocks":{"LU2242644610.SGD":"Fidelity China Innovation A-ACC-SGD","SG9999003461.SGD":"United Asia Pacific Infrastructure SGD","LU0873338254.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA GROWTH & INCOME EQUITIE \"I\" (USD) INC","LU0588546209.SGD":"Eastspring 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