丧事上的喇叭还吹得这_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

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咚咚锵123
08-24

丧事上的喇叭还吹得这么好听！

阿里配股后股价下跌，野村：稀释不足4%维持买入，债市太贵是选择配股主因

野村表示，市场此前已广泛预期阿里巴巴将需要寻求外部融资，本次融资稀释可控且利空出尽。公司预计AI投资三年回本，云业务利润高增，“平头哥”芯片构筑核心壁垒。在电商稳健现金流护航下，短期震荡后，此次融资或成阿里价值重估新起点。

阿里配股后股价下跌，野村：稀释不足4%维持买入，债市太贵是选择配股主因

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tg-height=\"604\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">选择配股而非发债：债市成本高企是关键</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村报告指出，<strong>融资方式的选择才是本次交易中令市场意外的核心所在，而非融资行为本身——市场此前已广泛预期阿里巴巴将需要寻求外部融资，尤其是在美国超大规模云计算企业今年密集融资之后。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村分析师坦言，此前预计阿里巴巴会更多倚重债务融资，因为以当前股价估值而言，股权融资的稀释成本看起来更高。然而，报告同时指出，<strong>全球AI资本开支热潮已推动超大规模云企业债券发行量急剧增加，信用利差走阔、新发债券让步幅度扩大、投资者认购倍数下降，债务融资的相对经济吸引力已明显下降。在此背景下，阿里巴巴转而选择股权融资&#34;可以理解&#34;。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前，阿里巴巴美股ADR已在8月21日单日暴跌8.6%，原因正是市场对其潜在融资需求的担忧提前发酵——这一跌幅发生在公司管理层就AI云业务发表乐观展望后仅一天。野村认为，<strong>本次配股公告的落地，反而有助于消除悬在股价上方的这一不确定性，让市场重新聚焦于公司基本面。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">AI投资回报：三年以内回本，云业务利润率持续扩张</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">阿里巴巴明确表示，此次募集资金将全部投向全栈AI能力，涵盖基础大模型、模型即服务（MaaS）、云基础设施及自研芯片。野村认为，阿里巴巴是中国AI生态中布局最为完整的企业之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在AI投资回报方面，管理层在最近一个季度的业绩说明会上给出了较为明确的指引：增量AI基础设施投资通常可在三年内回收，AI产品利润率提升、自研平头哥（T-Head）芯片使用比例提高、客户预付款安排以及替代算力方案等，均可进一步改善资本效率。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">云业务的基本面同样支撑了这一乐观预期。阿里云外部云收入在6月季度同比增长45%，已连续九个季度加速；管理层预计9月季度增速将超过50%，此后还将持续提速。AI云调整后EBITA利润率已从一年前的约7%升至11.6%，管理层预计未来数季度将继续向20%的长期目标迈进。MaaS年度经常性收入（ARR）截至8月已超过160亿元人民币，并有望在本财年末超过300亿元。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">自研芯片平头哥：潜在竞争优势浮现</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村报告特别提示，阿里巴巴自研芯片业务首次提供了更详尽的披露，值得投资者关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>平头哥芯片<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>涵盖GPU、CPU、存储及网络芯片，使阿里巴巴能够在系统层面优化算力、存储和网络，而不必完全依赖第三方硬件。管理层披露，平头哥前代AI芯片累计出货量已超过50万颗，最新一代国产AI芯片已于8月以超节点形式开始在阿里云平台部署，并进入大规模商业化阶段。下一代国产AI芯片预计将于2026年下半年进入流片阶段，目标同时支持大规模模型训练与推理。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村认为，若先进GPU供给持续受限，阿里巴巴的自研芯片能力将成为日益重要的竞争优势。尤其是若平头哥被证明能够在商业规模上支持大参数基础大模型的训练，将有望实质性增强阿里云和阿里基础模型业务的市场竞争力。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">电商业务：稳定现金流支撑AI投入</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在AI高投入的同时，阿里巴巴电商业务板块正逐步转向利润稳定与现金生成。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">阿里巴巴电商集团（AEG）——涵盖中国电商、中国即时零售（QC）及国际电商——6月季度调整后EBITA约为397亿元人民币，基本持平。中国电商客户管理收入（CMR）同比下降7%，但剔除结构性因素后同比增长约1%，大体符合市场预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">管理层指出，中国电商业务在9月季度迄今有所改善；即时零售业务单位经济效益持续优化，预计全年亏损将同比收窄约50%，并维持FY29财年实现盈利的指引不变。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村认为，阿里巴巴正日益强调成熟电商业务的利润稳定性和现金创造能力，而非以牺牲盈利为代价换取增长，这为集团持续投资AI提供了更稳固的盈利和现金流支撑。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里配股后股价下跌，野村：稀释不足4%维持买入，债市太贵是选择配股主因</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n阿里配股后股价下跌，野村：稀释不足4%维持买入，债市太贵是选择配股主因\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-24 14:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>突袭配股引发市场短暂震荡，但野村认为，此次融资对现有股东的实际冲击远小于市场担忧，且有助于消除股价头上长期悬而未决的融资不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">8月23日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴</a>宣布拟配售约7.1亿股新普通股，募资约800亿港元（约102亿美元），配售价为每股112.70港元，较此前香港收盘价折让8.4%。受配股消息影响，阿里巴巴港股今日承压，跌超8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村分析师Jialong Shi和Rachel Guo测算，本次约7.1亿股新股将导致现有股东股权被摊薄约3.7%，认为该稀释幅度&#34;可控&#34;，不改变对公司的正面投资逻辑。值得注意的是，配股完成后，阿里巴巴的总现金及现金等价物将从截至6月季度末的约700亿美元增至约800亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b9f89b485e50b0cc83377a53c073f2f\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"604\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">选择配股而非发债：债市成本高企是关键</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村报告指出，<strong>融资方式的选择才是本次交易中令市场意外的核心所在，而非融资行为本身——市场此前已广泛预期阿里巴巴将需要寻求外部融资，尤其是在美国超大规模云计算企业今年密集融资之后。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村分析师坦言，此前预计阿里巴巴会更多倚重债务融资，因为以当前股价估值而言，股权融资的稀释成本看起来更高。然而，报告同时指出，<strong>全球AI资本开支热潮已推动超大规模云企业债券发行量急剧增加，信用利差走阔、新发债券让步幅度扩大、投资者认购倍数下降，债务融资的相对经济吸引力已明显下降。在此背景下，阿里巴巴转而选择股权融资&#34;可以理解&#34;。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前，阿里巴巴美股ADR已在8月21日单日暴跌8.6%，原因正是市场对其潜在融资需求的担忧提前发酵——这一跌幅发生在公司管理层就AI云业务发表乐观展望后仅一天。野村认为，<strong>本次配股公告的落地，反而有助于消除悬在股价上方的这一不确定性，让市场重新聚焦于公司基本面。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">AI投资回报：三年以内回本，云业务利润率持续扩张</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">阿里巴巴明确表示，此次募集资金将全部投向全栈AI能力，涵盖基础大模型、模型即服务（MaaS）、云基础设施及自研芯片。野村认为，阿里巴巴是中国AI生态中布局最为完整的企业之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在AI投资回报方面，管理层在最近一个季度的业绩说明会上给出了较为明确的指引：增量AI基础设施投资通常可在三年内回收，AI产品利润率提升、自研平头哥（T-Head）芯片使用比例提高、客户预付款安排以及替代算力方案等，均可进一步改善资本效率。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">云业务的基本面同样支撑了这一乐观预期。阿里云外部云收入在6月季度同比增长45%，已连续九个季度加速；管理层预计9月季度增速将超过50%，此后还将持续提速。AI云调整后EBITA利润率已从一年前的约7%升至11.6%，管理层预计未来数季度将继续向20%的长期目标迈进。MaaS年度经常性收入（ARR）截至8月已超过160亿元人民币，并有望在本财年末超过300亿元。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">自研芯片平头哥：潜在竞争优势浮现</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村报告特别提示，阿里巴巴自研芯片业务首次提供了更详尽的披露，值得投资者关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>平头哥芯片<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>涵盖GPU、CPU、存储及网络芯片，使阿里巴巴能够在系统层面优化算力、存储和网络，而不必完全依赖第三方硬件。管理层披露，平头哥前代AI芯片累计出货量已超过50万颗，最新一代国产AI芯片已于8月以超节点形式开始在阿里云平台部署，并进入大规模商业化阶段。下一代国产AI芯片预计将于2026年下半年进入流片阶段，目标同时支持大规模模型训练与推理。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村认为，若先进GPU供给持续受限，阿里巴巴的自研芯片能力将成为日益重要的竞争优势。尤其是若平头哥被证明能够在商业规模上支持大参数基础大模型的训练，将有望实质性增强阿里云和阿里基础模型业务的市场竞争力。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">电商业务：稳定现金流支撑AI投入</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在AI高投入的同时，阿里巴巴电商业务板块正逐步转向利润稳定与现金生成。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">阿里巴巴电商集团（AEG）——涵盖中国电商、中国即时零售（QC）及国际电商——6月季度调整后EBITA约为397亿元人民币，基本持平。中国电商客户管理收入（CMR）同比下降7%，但剔除结构性因素后同比增长约1%，大体符合市场预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">管理层指出，中国电商业务在9月季度迄今有所改善；即时零售业务单位经济效益持续优化，预计全年亏损将同比收窄约50%，并维持FY29财年实现盈利的指引不变。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村认为，阿里巴巴正日益强调成熟电商业务的利润稳定性和现金创造能力，而非以牺牲盈利为代价换取增长，这为集团持续投资AI提供了更稳固的盈利和现金流支撑。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a00b5e006b00badb0e4baa7ad90ae26d","relate_stocks":{"89988":"阿里巴巴-WR","LU0244354667.USD":"SCHRODER ISF CHINA OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" ACC","SG9999002828.SGD":"Eastspring Investments Unit Trusts - Dragon Peacock A SGD","LU2257852520.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Asia Growth A (acc) SGD","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0287142896.SGD":"Fidelity China Focus A-SGD","LU0348783662.USD":"ALLIANZ ORIENTAL INCOME \"A\" (USDHDG) INC","LU0821914370.USD":"贝莱德亚洲成长领袖A2","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1044875133.USD":"天利亚洲反向股票 AU Acc","LU1993786604.SGD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV ALL CHINA 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3780140","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2661538225","content_text":"阿里巴巴突袭配股引发市场短暂震荡，但野村认为，此次融资对现有股东的实际冲击远小于市场担忧，且有助于消除股价头上长期悬而未决的融资不确定性。8月23日，阿里巴巴宣布拟配售约7.1亿股新普通股，募资约800亿港元（约102亿美元），配售价为每股112.70港元，较此前香港收盘价折让8.4%。受配股消息影响，阿里巴巴港股今日承压，跌超8%。野村分析师Jialong Shi和Rachel Guo测算，本次约7.1亿股新股将导致现有股东股权被摊薄约3.7%，认为该稀释幅度\"可控\"，不改变对公司的正面投资逻辑。值得注意的是，配股完成后，阿里巴巴的总现金及现金等价物将从截至6月季度末的约700亿美元增至约800亿美元。选择配股而非发债：债市成本高企是关键野村报告指出，融资方式的选择才是本次交易中令市场意外的核心所在，而非融资行为本身——市场此前已广泛预期阿里巴巴将需要寻求外部融资，尤其是在美国超大规模云计算企业今年密集融资之后。野村分析师坦言，此前预计阿里巴巴会更多倚重债务融资，因为以当前股价估值而言，股权融资的稀释成本看起来更高。然而，报告同时指出，全球AI资本开支热潮已推动超大规模云企业债券发行量急剧增加，信用利差走阔、新发债券让步幅度扩大、投资者认购倍数下降，债务融资的相对经济吸引力已明显下降。在此背景下，阿里巴巴转而选择股权融资\"可以理解\"。此前，阿里巴巴美股ADR已在8月21日单日暴跌8.6%，原因正是市场对其潜在融资需求的担忧提前发酵——这一跌幅发生在公司管理层就AI云业务发表乐观展望后仅一天。野村认为，本次配股公告的落地，反而有助于消除悬在股价上方的这一不确定性，让市场重新聚焦于公司基本面。AI投资回报：三年以内回本，云业务利润率持续扩张阿里巴巴明确表示，此次募集资金将全部投向全栈AI能力，涵盖基础大模型、模型即服务（MaaS）、云基础设施及自研芯片。野村认为，阿里巴巴是中国AI生态中布局最为完整的企业之一。在AI投资回报方面，管理层在最近一个季度的业绩说明会上给出了较为明确的指引：增量AI基础设施投资通常可在三年内回收，AI产品利润率提升、自研平头哥（T-Head）芯片使用比例提高、客户预付款安排以及替代算力方案等，均可进一步改善资本效率。云业务的基本面同样支撑了这一乐观预期。阿里云外部云收入在6月季度同比增长45%，已连续九个季度加速；管理层预计9月季度增速将超过50%，此后还将持续提速。AI云调整后EBITA利润率已从一年前的约7%升至11.6%，管理层预计未来数季度将继续向20%的长期目标迈进。MaaS年度经常性收入（ARR）截至8月已超过160亿元人民币，并有望在本财年末超过300亿元。自研芯片平头哥：潜在竞争优势浮现野村报告特别提示，阿里巴巴自研芯片业务首次提供了更详尽的披露，值得投资者关注。平头哥芯片矩阵涵盖GPU、CPU、存储及网络芯片，使阿里巴巴能够在系统层面优化算力、存储和网络，而不必完全依赖第三方硬件。管理层披露，平头哥前代AI芯片累计出货量已超过50万颗，最新一代国产AI芯片已于8月以超节点形式开始在阿里云平台部署，并进入大规模商业化阶段。下一代国产AI芯片预计将于2026年下半年进入流片阶段，目标同时支持大规模模型训练与推理。野村认为，若先进GPU供给持续受限，阿里巴巴的自研芯片能力将成为日益重要的竞争优势。尤其是若平头哥被证明能够在商业规模上支持大参数基础大模型的训练，将有望实质性增强阿里云和阿里基础模型业务的市场竞争力。电商业务：稳定现金流支撑AI投入在AI高投入的同时，阿里巴巴电商业务板块正逐步转向利润稳定与现金生成。阿里巴巴电商集团（AEG）——涵盖中国电商、中国即时零售（QC）及国际电商——6月季度调整后EBITA约为397亿元人民币，基本持平。中国电商客户管理收入（CMR）同比下降7%，但剔除结构性因素后同比增长约1%，大体符合市场预期。管理层指出，中国电商业务在9月季度迄今有所改善；即时零售业务单位经济效益持续优化，预计全年亏损将同比收窄约50%，并维持FY29财年实现盈利的指引不变。野村认为，阿里巴巴正日益强调成熟电商业务的利润稳定性和现金创造能力，而非以牺牲盈利为代价换取增长，这为集团持续投资AI提供了更稳固的盈利和现金流支撑。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"89988":0.6,"CXSE":0.6,"BABA":2.1,"HBBD.SI":0.6,"BKF":0.6,"09988":2.1,"LDEM":0.6,"KWEB":0.6,"FDNI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":255,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}