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麦田守望者一号
2021-12-03

Use apple to save all the other lost

Wall Street Expert Says: Apple Stock Will Reach $3.2 Trillion<blockquote>华尔街专家称：苹果股票将达3.2万亿美元</blockquote>

Late on December 1, Wedbush’s Dan Ives tweeted his revised price target on Apple stock: $200 apiece.

Wall Street Expert Says: Apple Stock Will Reach $3.2 Trillion<blockquote>华尔街专家称：苹果股票将达3.2万亿美元</blockquote>

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At these levels, shares of the Cupertino company would be worth over $3.2 trillion within the next 12 months — a new Street-high target.<blockquote>12月1日晚，Wedbush的Dan Ives在推特上发布了修改后的苹果股票目标价：每股200美元。按照这些水平，这家库比蒂诺公司的股票在未来12个月内价值将超过3.2万亿美元——这是一个新的华尔街高点目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven talks about how AAPL might get to those levels. Could investors be in for a nice bull run that pushes Apple stock 20% higher from here?<blockquote>这位苹果专家谈论了AAPL如何达到这些水平。投资者是否会迎来一轮漂亮的牛市，推动苹果股价上涨20%？</blockquote> iPhone at the core of the bull case<blockquote>iPhone是牛市的核心</blockquote> According to Dan Ives’ tweet, the key drivers that could send AAPL past the $3.2 trillion valuation are the same that supported the analyst’s recently discussed bull thesis. The iPhone 13 cycle is shaping up to be at least as strong as Wedbush itself predicted, and better than most analysts anticipated.<blockquote>根据Dan Ives的推文，可能使AAPL估值突破3.2万亿美元的关键驱动因素与支持分析师最近讨论的牛市论点的驱动因素相同。iPhone 13周期至少会像Wedbush自己预测的那样强劲，并且好于大多数分析师的预期。</blockquote> About a week ago, I discussed&nbsp;how Wall Street has slowly warmed up to the idea that tough comps and supply chain bottlenecks might not be enough to spoil Apple’s holiday quarter. Based on Dan Ives’ unit shipment projections of 40 million iPhones between Black Friday and Christmas, I estimate that segment revenues in fiscal Q1 could rise by 10% this year.<blockquote>大约一周前，我讨论了华尔街如何慢慢接受这样一个想法：严格的竞争和供应链瓶颈可能不足以破坏苹果的假日季度。根据Dan Ives对黑色星期五至圣诞节期间iPhone出货量4000万部的预测，我估计今年第一财季的部门收入可能会增长10%。</blockquote> What it would take<blockquote>需要什么</blockquote> Currently, analysts expect Apple to deliver fiscal 2022 EPS of $5.70, suggesting that the stock trades at a current-year P/E of 29 times. Make no mistake, this is a rich multiple. But by the end of next year, investors should start to value Apple stock on a multiple of 2023 earnings, or 27 times.<blockquote>目前，分析师预计苹果2022财年每股收益为5.70美元，这表明该股当年市盈率为29倍。毫无疑问，这是一个丰富的倍数。但到明年年底，投资者应该开始按照2023年市盈率的倍数（即27倍）对苹果股票进行估值。</blockquote> To count on valuation expansion, in this case, might be a bit of a stretch. Now seems to be a perfect-storm scenario for Apple: low interest rates, successful product cycles (iPhone, Mac, iPad and beyond), defensive play against COVID-19 fears, etc.<blockquote>在这种情况下，指望估值扩张可能有点牵强。现在对苹果来说似乎是一场完美风暴：低利率、成功的产品周期（iPhone、Mac、iPad等）、针对COVID-19担忧的防御性策略等。</blockquote> But that does not mean that Apple cannot deliver above-expectation financial results, thus pushing the stock price higher. I think this is even more likely if the Cupertino company announces its mixed reality devices in the second half of fiscal 2022, as&nbsp;some believe to be the case.<blockquote>但这并不意味着苹果无法交付高于预期的财务业绩，从而推高股价。我认为，如果库比蒂诺公司在2022财年下半年宣布其混合现实设备，这种可能性就更大了，正如一些人认为的那样。</blockquote> One step back first?<blockquote>先退一步？</blockquote> I do have a problem, however, with the idea that Apple stock might shoot straight up from $166 per share to $200 in the next year.<blockquote>然而，我确实对苹果股票明年可能会从每股166美元飙升至200美元的想法有疑问。</blockquote> As I discussed earlier today, AAPL has outperformed the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;(SPY)&nbsp;since mid-November by the most in over a year. While some may think that the recent rally is justifiable, history suggests that a near-term pullback relative to the broad market is certainly not out of question.<blockquote>正如我今天早些时候讨论的那样，AAPL的表现优于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）自11月中旬以来，创下一年多来的最高水平。虽然有些人可能认为最近的反弹是合理的，但历史表明，相对于大盘，近期回调肯定不是不可能的。</blockquote> Based on my research, the average excess return (i.e. above the S&amp;P 500) of holding AAPL over any three-week period in the past five years has been +1.3%. However, this number dips to -0.5% when AAPL has outperformed SPY by more than 10 percentage points in the previous three weeks.<blockquote>根据我的研究，过去五年中任何三周持有AAPL的平均超额回报（即高于标普500）为+1.3%。然而，当AAPL在过去三周内的表现优于SPDR标普500指数ETF超过10个百分点时，这一数字降至-0.5%。</blockquote> In plain English, Apple stock has historically underperformed the S&amp;P 500 in the short term if and once it outperforms the benchmark by a wide margin in the recent past. This is precisely the current setup.<blockquote>简而言之，如果苹果股票在最近大幅跑赢基准，那么它的短期表现就会逊于标普500。这正是当前的设置。</blockquote> I am not necessarily a skeptic on the $200 price target for 2022. However, for the reason presented above, I think that AAPL could take a step back first, at least relative to the broad market, before heading higher by the end of next year.<blockquote>我不一定对2022年200美元的目标价持怀疑态度。然而，出于上述原因，我认为苹果公司可以先后退一步，至少相对于大盘，然后在明年年底走高。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Expert Says: Apple Stock Will Reach $3.2 Trillion<blockquote>华尔街专家称：苹果股票将达3.2万亿美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Expert Says: Apple Stock Will Reach $3.2 Trillion<blockquote>华尔街专家称：苹果股票将达3.2万亿美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nThestreet2021-12-03 10:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nLate on December 1, Wedbush’s Dan Ives tweeted his revised price target on Apple stock: $200 apiece. At these levels, shares of the Cupertino company would be worth over $3.2 trillion within the next 12 months — a new Street-high target.<blockquote>12月1日晚，Wedbush的Dan Ives在推特上发布了修改后的苹果股票目标价：每股200美元。按照这些水平，这家库比蒂诺公司的股票在未来12个月内价值将超过3.2万亿美元——这是一个新的华尔街高点目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven talks about how AAPL might get to those levels. Could investors be in for a nice bull run that pushes Apple stock 20% higher from here?<blockquote>这位苹果专家谈论了AAPL如何达到这些水平。投资者是否会迎来一轮漂亮的牛市，推动苹果股价上涨20%？</blockquote> iPhone at the core of the bull case<blockquote>iPhone是牛市的核心</blockquote> According to Dan Ives’ tweet, the key drivers that could send AAPL past the $3.2 trillion valuation are the same that supported the analyst’s recently discussed bull thesis. The iPhone 13 cycle is shaping up to be at least as strong as Wedbush itself predicted, and better than most analysts anticipated.<blockquote>根据Dan Ives的推文，可能使AAPL估值突破3.2万亿美元的关键驱动因素与支持分析师最近讨论的牛市论点的驱动因素相同。iPhone 13周期至少会像Wedbush自己预测的那样强劲，并且好于大多数分析师的预期。</blockquote> About a week ago, I discussed&nbsp;how Wall Street has slowly warmed up to the idea that tough comps and supply chain bottlenecks might not be enough to spoil Apple’s holiday quarter. Based on Dan Ives’ unit shipment projections of 40 million iPhones between Black Friday and Christmas, I estimate that segment revenues in fiscal Q1 could rise by 10% this year.<blockquote>大约一周前，我讨论了华尔街如何慢慢接受这样一个想法：严格的竞争和供应链瓶颈可能不足以破坏苹果的假日季度。根据Dan Ives对黑色星期五至圣诞节期间iPhone出货量4000万部的预测，我估计今年第一财季的部门收入可能会增长10%。</blockquote> What it would take<blockquote>需要什么</blockquote> Currently, analysts expect Apple to deliver fiscal 2022 EPS of $5.70, suggesting that the stock trades at a current-year P/E of 29 times. Make no mistake, this is a rich multiple. But by the end of next year, investors should start to value Apple stock on a multiple of 2023 earnings, or 27 times.<blockquote>目前，分析师预计苹果2022财年每股收益为5.70美元，这表明该股当年市盈率为29倍。毫无疑问，这是一个丰富的倍数。但到明年年底，投资者应该开始按照2023年市盈率的倍数（即27倍）对苹果股票进行估值。</blockquote> To count on valuation expansion, in this case, might be a bit of a stretch. Now seems to be a perfect-storm scenario for Apple: low interest rates, successful product cycles (iPhone, Mac, iPad and beyond), defensive play against COVID-19 fears, etc.<blockquote>在这种情况下，指望估值扩张可能有点牵强。现在对苹果来说似乎是一场完美风暴：低利率、成功的产品周期（iPhone、Mac、iPad等）、针对COVID-19担忧的防御性策略等。</blockquote> But that does not mean that Apple cannot deliver above-expectation financial results, thus pushing the stock price higher. I think this is even more likely if the Cupertino company announces its mixed reality devices in the second half of fiscal 2022, as&nbsp;some believe to be the case.<blockquote>但这并不意味着苹果无法交付高于预期的财务业绩，从而推高股价。我认为，如果库比蒂诺公司在2022财年下半年宣布其混合现实设备，这种可能性就更大了，正如一些人认为的那样。</blockquote> One step back first?<blockquote>先退一步？</blockquote> I do have a problem, however, with the idea that Apple stock might shoot straight up from $166 per share to $200 in the next year.<blockquote>然而，我确实对苹果股票明年可能会从每股166美元飙升至200美元的想法有疑问。</blockquote> As I discussed earlier today, AAPL has outperformed the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;(SPY)&nbsp;since mid-November by the most in over a year. While some may think that the recent rally is justifiable, history suggests that a near-term pullback relative to the broad market is certainly not out of question.<blockquote>正如我今天早些时候讨论的那样，AAPL的表现优于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）自11月中旬以来，创下一年多来的最高水平。虽然有些人可能认为最近的反弹是合理的，但历史表明，相对于大盘，近期回调肯定不是不可能的。</blockquote> Based on my research, the average excess return (i.e. above the S&amp;P 500) of holding AAPL over any three-week period in the past five years has been +1.3%. However, this number dips to -0.5% when AAPL has outperformed SPY by more than 10 percentage points in the previous three weeks.<blockquote>根据我的研究，过去五年中任何三周持有AAPL的平均超额回报（即高于标普500）为+1.3%。然而，当AAPL在过去三周内的表现优于SPDR标普500指数ETF超过10个百分点时，这一数字降至-0.5%。</blockquote> In plain English, Apple stock has historically underperformed the S&amp;P 500 in the short term if and once it outperforms the benchmark by a wide margin in the recent past. This is precisely the current setup.<blockquote>简而言之，如果苹果股票在最近大幅跑赢基准，那么它的短期表现就会逊于标普500。这正是当前的设置。</blockquote> I am not necessarily a skeptic on the $200 price target for 2022. However, for the reason presented above, I think that AAPL could take a step back first, at least relative to the broad market, before heading higher by the end of next year.<blockquote>我不一定对2022年200美元的目标价持怀疑态度。然而，出于上述原因，我认为苹果公司可以先后退一步，至少相对于大盘，然后在明年年底走高。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/wall-street-expert-says-apple-stock-will-reach-3-2-trillion\">Thestreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/wall-street-expert-says-apple-stock-will-reach-3-2-trillion","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199551215","content_text":"Late on December 1, Wedbush’s Dan Ives tweeted his revised price target on Apple stock: $200 apiece. At these levels, shares of the Cupertino company would be worth over $3.2 trillion within the next 12 months — a new Street-high target.\nThe Apple Maven talks about how AAPL might get to those levels. Could investors be in for a nice bull run that pushes Apple stock 20% higher from here?\niPhone at the core of the bull case\nAccording to Dan Ives’ tweet, the key drivers that could send AAPL past the $3.2 trillion valuation are the same that supported the analyst’s recently discussed bull thesis. The iPhone 13 cycle is shaping up to be at least as strong as Wedbush itself predicted, and better than most analysts anticipated.\nAbout a week ago, I discussed how Wall Street has slowly warmed up to the idea that tough comps and supply chain bottlenecks might not be enough to spoil Apple’s holiday quarter. Based on Dan Ives’ unit shipment projections of 40 million iPhones between Black Friday and Christmas, I estimate that segment revenues in fiscal Q1 could rise by 10% this year.\nWhat it would take\nCurrently, analysts expect Apple to deliver fiscal 2022 EPS of $5.70, suggesting that the stock trades at a current-year P/E of 29 times. Make no mistake, this is a rich multiple. But by the end of next year, investors should start to value Apple stock on a multiple of 2023 earnings, or 27 times.\nTo count on valuation expansion, in this case, might be a bit of a stretch. Now seems to be a perfect-storm scenario for Apple: low interest rates, successful product cycles (iPhone, Mac, iPad and beyond), defensive play against COVID-19 fears, etc.\nBut that does not mean that Apple cannot deliver above-expectation financial results, thus pushing the stock price higher. I think this is even more likely if the Cupertino company announces its mixed reality devices in the second half of fiscal 2022, as some believe to be the case.\nOne step back first?\nI do have a problem, however, with the idea that Apple stock might shoot straight up from $166 per share to $200 in the next year.\nAs I discussed earlier today, AAPL has outperformed the S&P 500 (SPY) since mid-November by the most in over a year. While some may think that the recent rally is justifiable, history suggests that a near-term pullback relative to the broad market is certainly not out of question.\nBased on my research, the average excess return (i.e. above the S&P 500) of holding AAPL over any three-week period in the past five years has been +1.3%. However, this number dips to -0.5% when AAPL has outperformed SPY by more than 10 percentage points in the previous three weeks.\nIn plain English, Apple stock has historically underperformed the S&P 500 in the short term if and once it outperforms the benchmark by a wide margin in the recent past. This is precisely the current setup.\nI am not necessarily a skeptic on the $200 price target for 2022. However, for the reason presented above, I think that AAPL could take a step back first, at least relative to the broad market, before heading higher by the end of next year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1216,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":29,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}