9月份不可能加息，美_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

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圣利花开
08-30 03:04

9月份不可能加息，美联储还是要看数据，通胀已经开始降低了

沃什“放鹰”，高盛依旧不信“9月加息”、摩根大通称“还是要看8月非农和CPI”

摩根大通维持12月加息的基准预测，经济学家Michael Feroli称，决定9月会议结果的"更重要的消息"是即将公布的8月非农就业和CPI报告。高盛预计8月核心CPI和核心PCE环比涨幅均在0.2%左右，按此路径FOMC将按兵不动。

沃什“放鹰”，高盛依旧不信“9月加息”、摩根大通称“还是要看8月非农和CPI”

# 华尔街见闻

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class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-29 14:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美联储主席沃什（Kevin Warsh）首次以主席身份亮相Jackson Hole，<strong>发出了比7月FOMC新闻发布会更为鹰派的信号</strong>：通胀&#34;令人担忧&#34;，美联储当前的&#34;首要焦点应当放在物价上&#34;，若基本通胀趋势不能以&#34;足够的速度&#34;回落至目标，&#34;我们还有工作要做&#34;。</p>\n<p>讲话公布后，<strong>2年期美债收益率跳升约7个基点</strong>——近年来Jackson Hole讲话引发的最大市场反应之一。与此同时，<strong>9</strong><strong>月加息概率从演讲前的约30%攀升至50%以上</strong>。</p>\n<p>不过，华尔街两大行均未跟随市场定价转向。<strong>摩根大通维持12月加息的基准预测</strong>，<strong>经济学家Michael Feroli称，决定9月会议结果的&#34;更重要的消息&#34;是即将公布的8月非农就业和CPI报告。高盛预计8月核心CPI和核心PCE环比涨幅均在0.2%左右，按此路径FOMC将按兵不动。</strong></p>\n<h2><strong>通胀是&#34;首要关切&#34;：基本趋势未见实质改善</strong></h2>\n<p>沃什将演讲的相当篇幅用于通胀。他承认今年夏季的PCE和CPI读数&#34;好于预期&#34;，但话锋一转：<strong>&#34;这并不能告诉我基本趋势已有实质性改善。&#34;</strong></p>\n<p>他拿出一组数据佐证：过去12个月中，<strong>PCE篮子里价格涨幅超过3%的商品和服务占比达到54%</strong>，低于疫情后约77%的高峰，但仍远高于疫情前二十年32%的水平。摩根大通的Feroli认为，相较于沃什此前引用的截尾均值PCE（trimmed-mean PCE），这一指标的选择&#34;不那么投机取巧&#34;——截尾均值已回归正常区间，但<strong>超过3%的占比仍远超金融危机前水平</strong>。高盛则指出，该计算在一定程度上反映了关税效应。</p>\n<p>沃什承认工资增速&#34;温和&#34;，但表示工资&#34;很长时间以来都未能成为未来通胀的可靠指标&#34;——言下之意，温和的工资数据并不构成通胀前景改善的有力证据。</p>\n<h2><strong>纠偏7月两大争议表态</strong></h2>\n<p>沃什在演讲中主动修正了7月FOMC新闻发布会上引发市场不安的两个表述。</p>\n<p>此前他曾对2%通胀目标的未来表示质疑，此次明确声明：<strong>&#34;不应有任何误解——美联储以PCE价格指数衡量的2%物价稳定目标，是一个坚定不移的固定目标。&#34;</strong> 同样，此前他在政策工具选择上态度模糊，此次则确认&#34;短期利率是实现双重使命的首要工具&#34;。摩根大通评价，两项澄清合在一起，信号清晰——更高的通胀将以更高的联邦基金利率来应对。</p>\n<p>演讲中沃什还列出了指导政策的七项原则，重申对货币总量的关注，质疑前瞻指引在常规时期的作用，并在尾声呼吁建立一个&#34;更安静、在沟通上更有目的性的美联储&#34;。摩根大通称，这是自2018年以来篇幅最长的美联储主席Jackson Hole演讲。</p>\n<h2><strong>经济&#34;令人印象深刻&#34;，金融条件&#34;谈不上紧缩&#34;</strong></h2>\n<p>沃什用约四分之一的篇幅谈论经济状况，语气颇为传统。摩根大通称，这部分&#34;听起来像传统技术官僚型的美联储主席讲话&#34;，比如讨论了私人国内最终购买（private domestic final purchases）这类指标。</p>\n<p>沃什对经济的判断是&#34;印象深刻，经济似乎已经走强&#34;：实际消费支出&#34;尽管遭受冲击但依然健康&#34;，企业资本开支&#34;正在快速增长&#34;——<strong>今年超过一半的资本开支增长可归因于AI相关建设</strong>。他引用的私人国内最终购买增速今年以来接近3%，不过高盛提示，该指标目前受到AI投资相关科技品进口的上行扭曲。</p>\n<p>劳动力市场方面，沃什认为&#34;相当稳定&#34;&#34;与充分就业一致&#34;，失业率&#34;按历史标准仍处于低位&#34;。他的总体判断是，<strong>&#34;很难将当前广义金融条件描述为紧缩性的&#34;</strong>——这一表态较6月新闻发布会上的态度有了明显转变，当时他将同一问题推给了工作组。</p>\n<h2><strong>高盛、摩根大通：9月加息仍非基准情景</strong></h2>\n<p>沃什在演讲中透露，7月FOMC会议上&#34;我和大多数同事都认为，更明智的做法是等待会议间隔期的新信息，再决定是否有必要调整利率政策&#34;。</p>\n<p>摩根大通维持12月加息预测。Feroli承认，鉴于越来越多美联储官员释放鹰派信号，<strong>提前行动&#34;也并非不合理&#34;</strong>，但关键变量是8月就业和CPI数据。</p>\n<p>高盛的判断更为明确：<strong>9月加息仅在8月CPI和PPI数据超预期走强时才有可能</strong>。该行预计8月核心通胀环比涨幅在0.2%左右，FOMC大概率继续按兵不动。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1aab396489255e5bfafb79dd5b8a94ef","relate_stocks":{"FTXO":"First Trust Nasdaq Bank ETF","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC 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