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2021-12-01

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History says expect strong December for U.S. stocks, despite Omicron and Fed worries<blockquote>历史表明，尽管奥密克戎和美联储存在担忧，但预计美国股市12月仍将强劲</blockquote>

(Reuters) - A pileup of risks into year-end has some investors gauging whether December will continu

History says expect strong December for U.S. stocks, despite Omicron and Fed worries<blockquote>历史表明，尽管奥密克戎和美联储存在担忧，但预计美国股市12月仍将强劲</blockquote>

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The S&amp;P 500 is up 21.6% so far this year and remains near record highs.<blockquote>今年，由于对新的COVID-19变种可能如何影响全球增长的担忧以及美联储周二面对通胀飙升的鹰派转变，11月份的涨幅在最后几天脱轨，导致该指数当月下跌0.8%。标普500今年迄今已上涨21.6%，仍接近历史高点。</blockquote> While those risks are unlikely to dissipate anytime soon, stocks may still finish the year on a strong note, if historical performance is any guide.<blockquote>虽然这些风险不太可能很快消散，但如果历史表现有任何指导意义的话，股市仍可能以强劲的势头结束今年。</blockquote> The S&amp;P has notched a positive return in December 74% of the time since 1928, more than in any other month, according to data from Bespoke Investment Group.<blockquote>Bespoke Investment Group的数据显示，自1928年以来，标准普尔指数在12月份取得正回报的时间为74%，比其他任何一个月都多。</blockquote> A weaker November has only bolstered that trend, if performance over the rest of the year has been robust: This year marks the 10th time the S&amp;P 500 was down in November but up more than 10% for the year, the firm's data showed. In the nine prior years when this occurred, stocks finished December with a gain, according to Bespoke.<blockquote>如果今年剩余时间的表现强劲，那么11月份的疲软只会支撑这一趋势：该公司的数据显示，今年是标普500 11月份第10次下跌，但全年上涨超过10%。根据Bespoke的数据，在发生这种情况的前九年，股市在12月份结束时都是上涨的。</blockquote> “Momentum is definitely a factor,” George Pearkes, macro strategist at Bespoke, told Reuters. “If stocks are going up all year and people are underweight and chasing they may want to add to their positions before year-end.”<blockquote>Bespoke宏观策略师George Pearkes对路透社表示：“势头绝对是一个因素。”“如果股市全年都在上涨，并且人们都在跑输大盘和追逐，他们可能希望在年底前增持头寸。”</blockquote> December's gains tend to be even more positive when the S&amp;P 500 has a strong first 11 months of the year, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial.<blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick表示，当标普500今年前11个月表现强劲时，12月份的涨幅往往会更加积极。</blockquote> Since 1950, the index has gained an average of 1.7% in December when the S&amp;P 500 has climbed at least 20% in the rest of the year, compared with an average of 1.5% for December overall, according to Detrick.<blockquote>Detrick表示，自1950年以来，该指数12月份平均上涨1.7%，而标普500在今年剩余时间内至少上涨了20%，而12月份整体平均上涨1.5%。</blockquote> Markets may have their work cut out for them this time around.<blockquote>这一次，市场可能会面临艰巨的任务。</blockquote> The Cboe Volatility Index, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, on Tuesday rose to levels seen during last week’s Omicron-fueled selloff after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress the central bank will likely discuss speeding up its taper of monthly bond purchases at its upcoming policy meeting in the face of surging inflation. Stocks tumbled on the news, while yields on Treasury bonds rose.<blockquote>被称为华尔街恐惧指标的芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数周二升至上周奥密克戎引发的抛售期间的水平，此前美联储主席Jerome Powell告诉国会，美联储可能会在即将举行的政策会议上讨论加快缩减月度债券购买规模。面对通胀飙升，会议。受此消息影响，股市暴跌，而国债收益率上升。</blockquote> “With potential changes in policy on the horizon, market participants should expect additional market volatility in this uncharted territory,” said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management, in a recent note.<blockquote>安联投资管理公司(Allianz Investment Management)高级投资策略师查理·里普利(Charlie Ripley)在最近的一份报告中表示：“随着政策的潜在变化，市场参与者应该预计这一未知领域将出现额外的市场波动。”</blockquote> Expectations of a more hawkish Fed are likely to be an unwelcome development for the technology stocks whose outsize weighting in the S&amp;P 500 helped send the index to record highs this year.<blockquote>对于科技股来说，美联储更加鹰派的预期可能是一个不受欢迎的发展，科技股在标普500中的过大权重帮助该指数今年创下历史新高。</blockquote> Rising yields on Treasury bonds--which often follow expectations of more aggressive Fed policy -- dull the allure of equities for some investors and can weigh even more on stocks with lofty valuations, as they threaten to erode the value of their longer-term cash flows.<blockquote>国债收益率的上升——通常是在美联储采取更激进政策的预期之后——削弱了股票对一些投资者的吸引力，并可能对高估值股票造成更大压力，因为它们有可能侵蚀其长期现金流的价值。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 information technology sector is trading at 27.5 times forward 12-month earnings estimates compared with its historic average of 20.8 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream.<blockquote>根据Refinitiv Datastream的数据，标普500信息技术行业12个月预期收益的市盈率为27.5倍，而历史平均水平为20.8倍。</blockquote> Investors are also attempting to gauge the potential seriousness and severity of the Omicron variant, with Goldman Sachs mapping out four scenarios of how the strain may spread and its potential impact on global growth.<blockquote>投资者还试图衡量奥密克戎变种的潜在严重性和严重性，高盛绘制了该菌株可能如何传播及其对全球增长的潜在影响的四种情景。</blockquote> A ”downside” scenario, in which a large wave of infections leads to lockdowns, could slow global growth to 2% in the first quarter of 2022, the bank said, 2.5 percentage points below its current forecast.<blockquote>该行表示，在“下行”情况下，即一大波感染导致封锁，可能会使2022年第一季度的全球经济增长放缓至2%，比目前的预测低2.5个百分点。</blockquote> Many investors, however, believe stocks will remain buoyant.<blockquote>然而，许多投资者认为股市将保持活跃。</blockquote> “The market has been looking for an excuse to sell off for quite some time,” said Jack Janasiewicz, lead portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. ”Yet strong corporate earnings and the likelihood of an expanding economy should keep the stock market from falling significantly from here.”<blockquote>Natixis Investment Managers Solutions首席投资组合策略师Jack Janasiewicz表示：“相当长一段时间以来，市场一直在寻找抛售的借口。”然而，强劲的企业盈利和经济扩张的可能性应该会阻止股市大幅下跌。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHistory says expect strong December for U.S. stocks, despite Omicron and Fed worries<blockquote>历史表明，尽管奥密克戎和美联储存在担忧，但预计美国股市12月仍将强劲</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nReuters2021-12-01 14:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n(Reuters) - A pileup of risks into year-end has some investors gauging whether December will continue its historical trend of a strong stock performance, even as markets face of worries over the Omicron coronavirus variant and a more hawkish Federal Reserve.<blockquote>（路透社）-尽管市场面临对奥密克戎冠状病毒变种和美联储更加鹰派的担忧，但年底的一系列风险让一些投资者衡量12月是否会延续股市强劲表现的历史趋势。</blockquote> November and December have been the S&amp;P 500's second- and third-best months of the year since 1950, with the index rising an average of 1.7% and 1.5%, respectively, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.<blockquote>根据股票交易者年鉴，11月和12月是标普500自1950年以来一年中第二和第三好的月份，该指数平均分别上涨1.7%和1.5%。</blockquote> This year, November's gains were derailed in its final days, as concerns over how the new COVID-19 variant may impact global growth and Tuesday’s hawkish shift by the Fed in the face of surging inflation left the index with a 0.8% loss for the month. The S&amp;P 500 is up 21.6% so far this year and remains near record highs.<blockquote>今年，由于对新的COVID-19变种可能如何影响全球增长的担忧以及美联储周二面对通胀飙升的鹰派转变，11月份的涨幅在最后几天脱轨，导致该指数当月下跌0.8%。标普500今年迄今已上涨21.6%，仍接近历史高点。</blockquote> While those risks are unlikely to dissipate anytime soon, stocks may still finish the year on a strong note, if historical performance is any guide.<blockquote>虽然这些风险不太可能很快消散，但如果历史表现有任何指导意义的话，股市仍可能以强劲的势头结束今年。</blockquote> The S&amp;P has notched a positive return in December 74% of the time since 1928, more than in any other month, according to data from Bespoke Investment Group.<blockquote>Bespoke Investment Group的数据显示，自1928年以来，标准普尔指数在12月份取得正回报的时间为74%，比其他任何一个月都多。</blockquote> A weaker November has only bolstered that trend, if performance over the rest of the year has been robust: This year marks the 10th time the S&amp;P 500 was down in November but up more than 10% for the year, the firm's data showed. In the nine prior years when this occurred, stocks finished December with a gain, according to Bespoke.<blockquote>如果今年剩余时间的表现强劲，那么11月份的疲软只会支撑这一趋势：该公司的数据显示，今年是标普500 11月份第10次下跌，但全年上涨超过10%。根据Bespoke的数据，在发生这种情况的前九年，股市在12月份结束时都是上涨的。</blockquote> “Momentum is definitely a factor,” George Pearkes, macro strategist at Bespoke, told Reuters. “If stocks are going up all year and people are underweight and chasing they may want to add to their positions before year-end.”<blockquote>Bespoke宏观策略师George Pearkes对路透社表示：“势头绝对是一个因素。”“如果股市全年都在上涨，并且人们都在跑输大盘和追逐，他们可能希望在年底前增持头寸。”</blockquote> December's gains tend to be even more positive when the S&amp;P 500 has a strong first 11 months of the year, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial.<blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick表示，当标普500今年前11个月表现强劲时，12月份的涨幅往往会更加积极。</blockquote> Since 1950, the index has gained an average of 1.7% in December when the S&amp;P 500 has climbed at least 20% in the rest of the year, compared with an average of 1.5% for December overall, according to Detrick.<blockquote>Detrick表示，自1950年以来，该指数12月份平均上涨1.7%，而标普500在今年剩余时间内至少上涨了20%，而12月份整体平均上涨1.5%。</blockquote> Markets may have their work cut out for them this time around.<blockquote>这一次，市场可能会面临艰巨的任务。</blockquote> The Cboe Volatility Index, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, on Tuesday rose to levels seen during last week’s Omicron-fueled selloff after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress the central bank will likely discuss speeding up its taper of monthly bond purchases at its upcoming policy meeting in the face of surging inflation. Stocks tumbled on the news, while yields on Treasury bonds rose.<blockquote>被称为华尔街恐惧指标的芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数周二升至上周奥密克戎引发的抛售期间的水平，此前美联储主席Jerome Powell告诉国会，美联储可能会在即将举行的政策会议上讨论加快缩减月度债券购买规模。面对通胀飙升，会议。受此消息影响，股市暴跌，而国债收益率上升。</blockquote> “With potential changes in policy on the horizon, market participants should expect additional market volatility in this uncharted territory,” said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management, in a recent note.<blockquote>安联投资管理公司(Allianz Investment Management)高级投资策略师查理·里普利(Charlie Ripley)在最近的一份报告中表示：“随着政策的潜在变化，市场参与者应该预计这一未知领域将出现额外的市场波动。”</blockquote> Expectations of a more hawkish Fed are likely to be an unwelcome development for the technology stocks whose outsize weighting in the S&amp;P 500 helped send the index to record highs this year.<blockquote>对于科技股来说，美联储更加鹰派的预期可能是一个不受欢迎的发展，科技股在标普500中的过大权重帮助该指数今年创下历史新高。</blockquote> Rising yields on Treasury bonds--which often follow expectations of more aggressive Fed policy -- dull the allure of equities for some investors and can weigh even more on stocks with lofty valuations, as they threaten to erode the value of their longer-term cash flows.<blockquote>国债收益率的上升——通常是在美联储采取更激进政策的预期之后——削弱了股票对一些投资者的吸引力，并可能对高估值股票造成更大压力，因为它们有可能侵蚀其长期现金流的价值。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 information technology sector is trading at 27.5 times forward 12-month earnings estimates compared with its historic average of 20.8 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream.<blockquote>根据Refinitiv Datastream的数据，标普500信息技术行业12个月预期收益的市盈率为27.5倍，而历史平均水平为20.8倍。</blockquote> Investors are also attempting to gauge the potential seriousness and severity of the Omicron variant, with Goldman Sachs mapping out four scenarios of how the strain may spread and its potential impact on global growth.<blockquote>投资者还试图衡量奥密克戎变种的潜在严重性和严重性，高盛绘制了该菌株可能如何传播及其对全球增长的潜在影响的四种情景。</blockquote> A ”downside” scenario, in which a large wave of infections leads to lockdowns, could slow global growth to 2% in the first quarter of 2022, the bank said, 2.5 percentage points below its current forecast.<blockquote>该行表示，在“下行”情况下，即一大波感染导致封锁，可能会使2022年第一季度的全球经济增长放缓至2%，比目前的预测低2.5个百分点。</blockquote> Many investors, however, believe stocks will remain buoyant.<blockquote>然而，许多投资者认为股市将保持活跃。</blockquote> “The market has been looking for an excuse to sell off for quite some time,” said Jack Janasiewicz, lead portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. ”Yet strong corporate earnings and the likelihood of an expanding economy should keep the stock market from falling significantly from here.”<blockquote>Natixis Investment Managers Solutions首席投资组合策略师Jack Janasiewicz表示：“相当长一段时间以来，市场一直在寻找抛售的借口。”然而，强劲的企业盈利和经济扩张的可能性应该会阻止股市大幅下跌。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-history-says-expect-strong-060738639.html\">Reuters</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-history-says-expect-strong-060738639.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158962248","content_text":"(Reuters) - A pileup of risks into year-end has some investors gauging whether December will continue its historical trend of a strong stock performance, even as markets face of worries over the Omicron coronavirus variant and a more hawkish Federal Reserve.\nNovember and December have been the S&P 500's second- and third-best months of the year since 1950, with the index rising an average of 1.7% and 1.5%, respectively, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.\nThis year, November's gains were derailed in its final days, as concerns over how the new COVID-19 variant may impact global growth and Tuesday’s hawkish shift by the Fed in the face of surging inflation left the index with a 0.8% loss for the month. The S&P 500 is up 21.6% so far this year and remains near record highs.\nWhile those risks are unlikely to dissipate anytime soon, stocks may still finish the year on a strong note, if historical performance is any guide.\nThe S&P has notched a positive return in December 74% of the time since 1928, more than in any other month, according to data from Bespoke Investment Group.\nA weaker November has only bolstered that trend, if performance over the rest of the year has been robust: This year marks the 10th time the S&P 500 was down in November but up more than 10% for the year, the firm's data showed. In the nine prior years when this occurred, stocks finished December with a gain, according to Bespoke.\n“Momentum is definitely a factor,” George Pearkes, macro strategist at Bespoke, told Reuters. “If stocks are going up all year and people are underweight and chasing they may want to add to their positions before year-end.”\nDecember's gains tend to be even more positive when the S&P 500 has a strong first 11 months of the year, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial.\nSince 1950, the index has gained an average of 1.7% in December when the S&P 500 has climbed at least 20% in the rest of the year, compared with an average of 1.5% for December overall, according to Detrick.\nMarkets may have their work cut out for them this time around.\nThe Cboe Volatility Index, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, on Tuesday rose to levels seen during last week’s Omicron-fueled selloff after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress the central bank will likely discuss speeding up its taper of monthly bond purchases at its upcoming policy meeting in the face of surging inflation. Stocks tumbled on the news, while yields on Treasury bonds rose.\n“With potential changes in policy on the horizon, market participants should expect additional market volatility in this uncharted territory,” said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management, in a recent note.\nExpectations of a more hawkish Fed are likely to be an unwelcome development for the technology stocks whose outsize weighting in the S&P 500 helped send the index to record highs this year.\nRising yields on Treasury bonds--which often follow expectations of more aggressive Fed policy -- dull the allure of equities for some investors and can weigh even more on stocks with lofty valuations, as they threaten to erode the value of their longer-term cash flows.\nThe S&P 500 information technology sector is trading at 27.5 times forward 12-month earnings estimates compared with its historic average of 20.8 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream.\nInvestors are also attempting to gauge the potential seriousness and severity of the Omicron variant, with Goldman Sachs mapping out four scenarios of how the strain may spread and its potential impact on global growth.\nA ”downside” scenario, in which a large wave of infections leads to lockdowns, could slow global growth to 2% in the first quarter of 2022, the bank said, 2.5 percentage points below its current forecast.\nMany investors, however, believe stocks will remain buoyant.\n“The market has been looking for an excuse to sell off for quite some time,” said Jack Janasiewicz, lead portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. ”Yet strong corporate earnings and the likelihood of an expanding economy should keep the stock market from falling significantly from here.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2141,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}